POLAND. Poland, officially the Republic of Poland, is situated in Central Europe.
REGIONAL DIFFERENTIATION OF RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY MARKETS IN POLAND
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Transcript of REGIONAL DIFFERENTIATION OF RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY MARKETS IN POLAND
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REGIONAL DIFFERENTIATION OF
RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY MARKETS IN
POLAND
prof. Ewa Kucharska-StasiakPhD Magdalena ZalecznaPhD St. Konrad Zelazowski
Department of Real Estate and InvestmentUniversity of Lodz
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The aim of article
Identification of regional differences in functioning of housing markets in Poland
Identification of main factors responsible for regional differences in property prices
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Current situation of Polish housing
One of the lowest number of dwellings per 1000 inhabitants in EU
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Spain
Greec
e
Finla
nd
Portu
gal
Fran
ce
Bulgar
ia
Denm
ark
Sweden
Germ
any
Est
onia
Austri
a
Cypru
s
Belgium Ita
ly
Latv
ia
Czech
Rep
ublic
Irlan
d
United
King
dom
Hunga
ry
Nethe
rland
s
Sloven
ia
Lithu
ania
Roman
ia
Slovak
Rep
ublic
Luxe
mbu
rg
Poland
Malt
a
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Overcrowded housing stock
Average useful floor area per person
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Declining financial support of the State
Direct budget expenditures on housing sector
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Low affordability of housing
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
1,2
1,4
1,6
1,8
2 000 2 001 2 002 2 003 2 004 2 005 1kw06
2kw06
3kw06
4kw06
1kw07
2kw07
3kw07
4kw07
1kw08
2kw08
3kw08
4kw08
1kw09
2kw09
3kw09
4kw09
Sq. m. available for average monthly wage
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Regional differences in housing markets
Regional differences in housing stock
Regional differences in transaction activity
Regional differences in housing prices
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Regional differences in housing stock
Region Dwelling per
1000 inhabitants
Regional capital cities
Dwelling per 1000
inhabitants
Łódzkie 380,8277 Łódź 454,80
Mazowieckie 383,1256 Warszawa 477,63
Małopolskie 326,7055 Kraków 425,82
Śląskie 368,437 Katowice 439,63
Lubelskie 334,958 Lublin 390,73
Podkarpackie 294,8944 Rzeszów 361,55
Podlaskie 347,977 Białystok 395,60
Świętokrzyskie 332,2844 Kielce 383,06
Lubuskie 343,8206 Zielona Góra 400,72
Wielkopolskie 319,9748 Poznań 423,67
Zachodniopomorskie 353,9964 Szczecin 396,84
Dolnośląskie 366,2487 Wrocław 418,59
Opolskie 329,7488 Opole 385,18
Kujawsko-Pomorskie 334,7981 Bydgoszcz 389,88
Pomorskie 343,3614 Gdańsk 408,58
Warmińsko-Mazurskie 335,4173 Olsztyn 398,82
Average 348,5297 Average 409,44
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Regional differences in transaction activity
Residential property transactions per 1000 inhabitants
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Regional differences in transaction activity
Residential properties sold by local governments and by the State
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Residential properties sold by private inwestors
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Residential property prices
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
9 000
10 000
Katowice Kraków Łódź Poznań Szczecin Warszawa Wrocław
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Regression of property prices
),,,,,,,( iiiiiiiii PopANSSUICGDPFP
iGDP
iC
iI
iU
- GDP per capita
- Construction costs
- Average monthly wages
- Unemployment rate
iS
iNS
iA
iPop
- Housing stock (dwellings per 1000 inhabitanta)
- Supply of new dwellings per 1000 inhabitants
- Residential property transactiions related to existing stock
- Population age structure (number of young people 25-44 per 1000 inhabitants)
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Variable Min Max Mean Coefficient of variation
Pearson's correlatio
n coefficien
t
P 3128,25
6923,25
4480,88 21,22% 1
GDP 26095 98854 42932,8 43,9% 0,795
C 2133,13
2660,59
2342,92 5,06% 0,718
I 3060,42
4603,26
3494,00 13,49% 0,564
U 2,9% 11,6% 6,71% 38,42% -0,558
S 361,55 477,63 409,44 6,97% 0,519
NS 2,42 13,70 6,08 54,63% 0,771
A 0,07% 1,45% 0,53% 68,59% 0,018
Pop 286,01 325,34 309,62 3,77% 0,670
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Estimated regression
Coefficient Std. error t-ratio P-value
const -8150,73 3199,92 -2,55 0,02432
GDP_per_capita 0,033 0,0068 4,90 0,00029
Pop 36,18 10,62 3,41 0,00469
Mean dependent var 4480,875 S.D. dependent var 981,9434
Sum squared resid 2800570 S.E. of regression 464,1428
R-squared 0,806366 Adjusted R-squared 0,776576
F(3, 12) 27,06843 P-value(F) 0,000023
iiii PopGDPP 210
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Empirical vs theoretical prices
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
5500
6000
6500
7000
4000 4500 5000 5500 6000 6500
P
warto¶ci predyktora P
Wroclaw
Bydgoszcz
Lublin
Zielona
Lodz
Krakow
Warszawa
OpoleRzeszow Bialystok
Gdansk
Kielce
Olsztyn
Poznan
Szczecin
empiryczne = prognozowane
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Summary
• Analysis of regional housing markets confirmed existing differences in their functioning
• Selected fundamental variables were successful in explaining regional variation in residential property prices.