Regional Climate Modeling: A Tool for Decision-Makers
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Transcript of Regional Climate Modeling: A Tool for Decision-Makers
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
Regional Climate Modeling:A Tool for Decision-Makers
Eugene S. TakleAgronomy Department
Geological and Atmospheric Science Department
Iowa State UniversityAmes, Iowa 50011
Institute for Science and SocietyIowa State University
4 May 2004
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
Outline Evidence for global climate change Future atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations Simulations of global climate and future climate
change Implications for stream flow and
nutrient loss International collaboration for understanding
water and energy cycles Summary
Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
2004
Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
2004
2040
Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
Stabilization at 550 ppm
Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
“Business as Usual”(fossil intensive)
2100
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
Associated Climate Changes Global sea-level has increased 1-2 mm/yr Duration of ice cover of rivers and lakes decreased by 2 weeks in N.
Hemisphere Arctic ice has thinned substantially, decreased in extent by 10-15% Reduced permafrost in polar, sub-polar, mountainous regions Growing season lengthened by 1-4 days in N. Hemisphere Retreat of continental glaciers on all continents Poleward shift of animal and plant ranges Snow cover decreased by 10% Earlier flowering dates Coral reef bleaching
Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001 Report
Mann, M. E., R. S. Bailey, and M. K. Hughes, 1999: Geophysical Research Letters 26, 759.
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
Source: Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research
Source: National Center for Atmospheric Research
Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001 Report
40% Probability
5% Probability
Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001 Report
Climate Change Projected for 2100
Rapid Economic Growth
Slower Economic Growth
IPCC Summary for Policy Makers
An increasing body of observations gives a collective picture of a warming world and other changes in the climate system
Emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols due to human activities continue to alter the atmosphere in ways that are expected to affect the climate
IPCC Summary for Policy Makers, cont’d
Confidence in the ability of models to project future climate has increased
There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities
IPCC Summary for Policy Makers, cont’d
Confidence in the ability of models to project future climate has increased
There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities
IPCC Summary for Policy Makers, cont’d
Confidence in the ability of models to project future climate has increased
There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities
IPCC Summary for Policy Makers, cont’d
Anthropogenic climate change will persist for many centuries
Further action is required to address remaining gaps in information and understanding
http://www.grida.no/climate/vital/38.htm
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
Climate Surprises
Breakdown of the ocean thermohaline circulation (Greenland melt water)
Breakoff of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet
ClimateCold Warm
Ic e V
olum
e
0
AntarcticaGreenland
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
Regional Climate Change for the US Midwest
Observed and projected changes in climate
Impact on water quantity and water quality
Policy implications
For the Midwest Warming will be greater for winter than summer Warming will be greater at night than during the
day A 3oF rise in summer daytime temperature triples
the probability of a heat wave Growing season will be longer (8-9 days longer
now than in 1950) More precipitation Likely more soil moisture in summer More rain will come in intense rainfall events Higher stream flow, more flooding
Sub-Basins of theSub-Basins of theUpper MississippiUpper MississippiRiver BasinRiver Basin
119 sub-basins
Outflow measuredat Grafton, IL
Approximately oneobserving stationper sub-basin
Approximately onemodel grid pointper sub-basin
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT)
Long-term, continuous watershed simulation model (Arnold et al,1998)
Assesses impacts of climate and management on yields of water, sediment, and agricultural chemicals
Physically based, including hydrology, soil temperature, plant growth, nutrients, pesticides and land management
Daily time steps
SWAT Output with Various Sources SWAT Output with Various Sources of Climate Inputof Climate Input
Validation of SWAT:Validation of SWAT:Annual Stream Flow at Grafton, ILAnnual Stream Flow at Grafton, IL
Validation of SWAT:Validation of SWAT:Monthly Stream Flow at Grafton, ILMonthly Stream Flow at Grafton, IL
RegCM2 Simulation DomainRegCM2 Simulation Domain
Red = global model grid point Green/blue = regional model grid points
Annual Stream Flow Simulated by SWATAnnual Stream Flow Simulated by SWATDriven by the RegCM2 Regional ClimateDriven by the RegCM2 Regional Climate
Model with NNR Lateral Boundary ConditionsModel with NNR Lateral Boundary Conditions
Mean Monthly Precipitation Simulated by Mean Monthly Precipitation Simulated by the RegCM2 Regional Climate Model the RegCM2 Regional Climate Model
with NNR Lateral Boundary Conditionswith NNR Lateral Boundary Conditions
Seasonal Stream Flow Simulated by SWATSeasonal Stream Flow Simulated by SWATDriven by the RegCM2 Regional ClimateDriven by the RegCM2 Regional Climate
Model with NNR Lateral Boundary ConditionsModel with NNR Lateral Boundary Conditions
“Warming Hole”
TTmaxmax (JJA) (JJA)˚C
Ten-Year Mean Precipitation Generated by the RegCM2 Ten-Year Mean Precipitation Generated by the RegCM2 Regional Climate Model Driven with HadCM2 Regional Climate Model Driven with HadCM2
Global Model Results for the Contemporary and Global Model Results for the Contemporary and Future Scenario (2040s) ClimateFuture Scenario (2040s) Climate
Ten-Year Mean Monthly Stream Flow Generated by the Ten-Year Mean Monthly Stream Flow Generated by the RegCM2 Regional Climate Model Driven RegCM2 Regional Climate Model Driven
with HadCM2 Global Model Results for the with HadCM2 Global Model Results for the Contemporary and Future Scenario (2040s) ClimateContemporary and Future Scenario (2040s) Climate
Comparison of Simulated Stream Flow under Comparison of Simulated Stream Flow under Climate Change with Various Model BiasesClimate Change with Various Model Biases
Relation of Runoff to Precipitation Relation of Runoff to Precipitation for Various Climatesfor Various Climates
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
Regional Climate Modeling for Informing Policy on Water Quality
How does the combination of climate change and land use impact water quality?
Use nitrates and sediment as indicators What alternative land management
strategies will improve water quality? What policies need to be
implemented to achieve this water quality improvement?
Maquoketa Watershed
Scenario 1: all Agriculture
Scenario 2: all Forest
Scenario 3: N. half Agric. and S. half Forest.
Scenario 4: S. half Agric. and N. half Forest.
Scenario 5: Upper half Agric. and lower half Forest.
Scenario 6: Lower half Agric. and upper half Forest.
Scenario 7: Main channel basins - Agric.
Scenario 8: Main channel basins - Forest.
Scenario 1995 (normal year) 1993 (wet year) 1988 (dry year)
Flow Sediment yield Nitrate
Scenario 1
- - -
Scenario 2
-0.01 1.00 0.99
Scenario 3
-0.02 0.42 0.52
Scenario 4
0.00 0.55 0.48
Scenario 5
-0.03 0.75 0.60
Scenario 6
0.03 0.21 0.40
Scenario 7
-0.02 0.68 0.74
Scenario 8
0.02 0.28 0.25
Fractional changes in mean annual flow and yield under various scenarios normalized by the fractional change in area from all-agricultural for the scenario.
Scenario 1995 (normal year) 1993 (wet year) 1988 (dry year)
Flow Sediment yield Nitrate
Scenario 1
- - -
Scenario 2
-0.01 1.00 0.99
Scenario 3
-0.02 0.42 0.52
Scenario 4
0.00 0.55 0.48
Scenario 5
-0.03 0.75 0.60
Scenario 6
0.03 0.21 0.40
Scenario 7
-0.02 0.68 0.74
Scenario 8
0.02 0.28 0.25
Fractional changes in mean annual flow and yield under various scenarios normalized by the fractional change in area from all-agricultural for the scenario.
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
Improving Regional Climate Models Project to Intercompare Regional Climate
Simulations Transferability Working Group of GEWEX
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
Project to Intercompare Regional Climate Simulations (PIRCS)
PIRCS MissionTo provide a common framework for evaluating
strengths and weaknesses of regional climate models and their component procedures through
systematic, comparative simulationsPIRCS Co-Directors
http://www.pircs.iastate.edu/
Ray Arritt [email protected] Gutowski [email protected] Takle [email protected]
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
Danish Met. Inst. (HIRHAM4; J.H. Christensen, O.B. Christensen)Danish Met. Inst. (HIRHAM4; J.H. Christensen, O.B. Christensen) Université du Québec à Montréal (D. Caya, S. Biner)Université du Québec à Montréal (D. Caya, S. Biner) Scripps Institution of Oceanography (RSM; J. Roads, S. Chen)Scripps Institution of Oceanography (RSM; J. Roads, S. Chen) NCEP (RSM; S.-Y. Hong) NCEP (RSM; S.-Y. Hong) NASA - Marshall (MM5/BATS; W. Lapenta)NASA - Marshall (MM5/BATS; W. Lapenta) CSIRO (DARLAM; J. McGregor, J. Katzfey)CSIRO (DARLAM; J. McGregor, J. Katzfey) Colorado State University (ClimRAMS; G. Liston)Colorado State University (ClimRAMS; G. Liston) Iowa State University (RegCM2; Z. Pan)Iowa State University (RegCM2; Z. Pan) Iowa State University (MM5/LSM; D. Flory)Iowa State University (MM5/LSM; D. Flory) Univ. of Maryland / NASA-GSFC (GEOS; M. Fox-Rabinovitz)Univ. of Maryland / NASA-GSFC (GEOS; M. Fox-Rabinovitz) SMHI / Rossby Centre (RCA; M. Rummukainen, C. Jones)SMHI / Rossby Centre (RCA; M. Rummukainen, C. Jones) NOAA (RUC2; G. Grell)NOAA (RUC2; G. Grell) ETH (D. Luethi)ETH (D. Luethi) Universidad Complutense Madrid (PROMES; M.Gaertner)Universidad Complutense Madrid (PROMES; M.Gaertner) Université Catholique du Louvain (P. Marbaix)Université Catholique du Louvain (P. Marbaix) Argnonne National Lab (MM5 V3; J. Taylor, J. Larson)Argnonne National Lab (MM5 V3; J. Taylor, J. Larson) St. Louis University (Z. Pan)St. Louis University (Z. Pan)
PIRCS Participating GroupsPIRCS Participating Groups
La Plata
• Develop the ability to predict the variations of global and regional hydrological processes and water resources, and their response to environmental change.
• Foster the development of observing techniques, data management, and assimiliation systems suitable for operational application to long-range weather forecasts, hydrology, and climate predictions.
• Determine the hydrological cycle and energy fluxes by means of global measurements of observable atmospheric and surface properties.
• Model the global hydrological cycle and its impact on the atmosphere, oceans, and on the land surface.
OBJECTIVES
Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment
Phase II Primary Science Questions
Is the Water Cycle Accelerating?
1. Are the Earth’s Energy Budget and Water Cycle Changing?
3. Can We Predict these Changes on up to S - IA?
2. How do Processes Contribute to Feedback and Causes of Natural Variability?
4. What are the Impacts of these Changes on Water Resources?
Updated GEWEX Science Questions :
Data Management
Water and Energy Budget Studies
Water Resource Applications Project
Sources and Cycling of Water
Extremes
Predictability
Transferability
CEOP IAEA
GAME
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
Summary
Regional climate models demonstrate sufficient skill to be useful for driving some climate impacts assessment models for the purpose of informing policy makers and decision-makers of vulnerabilities and opportunities associated with future climate change
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
For More Information
See my online Global Change course:
http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/gccourse
Contact me directly: