Regional and Municipal Elections in ColombiaOctober2011The Wilson Center

December 13, 2011

Elisabeth Ungar BleierExecutive Director

Transparencia por Colombia

VERY GLOOMY FORECAST

• PRECEDENT OF 2007 ELECTIONS- Violence- Election Fraud- Electoral victory of paramilitary and

paramilitary related candidates in many states and municipalities

- 2.5 million invalid votes- Post electoral violent protests

• PRE ELECTORAL PERIOD- Pre electoral violence: 40 candidates

assasinated- Reports of candidates under investigation- Reports of candidates with criminal records-Reports of candidates related to politicians

(including family) with criminal records- Reports of irregularities in voter registration,

in appointment of electoral judges

EFFORTS TO AVOID REPETITIONS

• Government and State agencies: cancelling candidates’ & voters’ registration

• Media• CSOs• Political Parties: cancelling registrations

GENERAL RESULTS: NOT AS GLOOMY AS EXPECTED, BUT….

• Stable (low) electoral participation: average 43% (governors, mayors, city councils) (17.386.263)

• 20% less invalid votes (new “tarjetón electoral”

• Defeat of some of the candidates under investigation, with criminal records or related to politicians (including family) with criminal records

• 7 out of 9 governors under scrutiny were elected (exceptions Caquetá and Chocó (?))

• Out of 25 municipalities defined as critical by Semana, 7 had positive results

• Santander: election of the son of ex governor condemmned for his relation with paramiliary

• Despite the improvements, political financing is still a

SOME EXAMPLES….

• Defeat of one of the strongest drug and corruption barons (Juan Carlos Martinez, in jail, who was given a prison leave a few weeks before the elections used to campaign)

• Oscar Suárez Mira (in Bello, where the blank vote won (57%) in protest against a sole candidate Elections will be repeated)

• “La Gata” (corruption, paramilitary, illegal gambling) in Magangué

• Positive results in Antioquia and its capital, Medellín, and Chocó and its capital, Quibdó (despite the presence of strong candidates related to corruption & paramilitary…)

• Surprises in some States of the Caribbean Coast, traditionally dominated by electoral barons, clientelism, paramilitary presence…

• REACTION AGAINST TRADITIONAL POLITICAL LEADERS AND POLITICAL PRACTICES– Barranquilla: continuity of good mayors– Magangué– Santa Marta (Ex chancellor of the University of

Magdalena was elected. He had been condemned, after being acused by politicians related to the paramilitary and then declared not guilty

• CALI (3rd largest city): Rodrigo Guerrero elected with support of a citizens movement (signatures): support of the local business class and reaction to scandals of previous governors (Luis Carlos Abadia), and members of Congress (Juan Carlos Martínez)

• MEDELLIN: Sergio Fajardo (verdes, but made an “independent” campaign)

• ANTIOQUIA: Gaviria defeated Luis Perez, a strong candidate

ALL THE POLITICAL PARTIES CLAIMED VICTORY

¿BUT WHO WON AND WHO LOST?Not easy to determine in regional elections, with

so many parties, citizen movements (Movimientos Ciudadanos), aliances and coalitions

Dificult to compare results for Governors, Mayors, Members of State Assemblies and City Councillors

¿The biggest winner?

• Theoretically, the UNIDAD NACIONAL (government coalition created by President JM Santos, made up by the Liberal Party, Conservative Party, Partido de la U, Cambio Radical (German Vargas, Min.Interior), Verdes -late comers-) is the biggest winner

• However, as a coalition, not one party can claim victory

• COALITIONS & “SIGNATURES” : Certainly the biggest “winner”. Many and most important candidates were elected with the support of coalitions or citizens’ movements (34% of governors)- Growing strength of the “movements and significant citizen

groups”- Different interpretationas:

- Example of pluralism and strong democracy- Ideological weakness of political parties- Political disorder- Temporary alliances without ideological coherence,

whose main aim is to win elections- 2 Capital cities (Bogotá and Cali!)

• LIBERAL PARTY (18%)- Opposition party during the past 8 years (expresidenteUribe’s 2 presidential terms)- No bureaucracy- Good electoral results - Regained relevance in a multy party system which is still under construction (different from the frequently dominant role in the historic two party system)

Important role in the Legislative Agenda (i.e. Ley de Víctimas y Tierras)- Mayors of 7 capital cities

• PARTIDO DE LA “U” (Alvaro Uribe’s and President Santos’ Party) (12.5%):- Some of Uribe’s candidates lost:

Peñalosa in Bogotá Medellín and Antioquia (his home)

• Internal dispute between Santos and Uribe followers

• No ideological coherence• In terms of votes La “U” is the (relative) winner

(in terms of votes not of elected officials). • 6 capital cities

• CAMBIO RADICAL- Germán Vargas’ Party (Presidential candidate & Minister of the Interior). Essential role in passing President’s legislative agenda.- Maintained stable voting results (including Barranquilla but with the support of a coalition)

• PARTIDO VERDE- Lost Bogotá with Enrique Peñalosa but won Medellin with Sergio Fajardo (ex presidential candidate) and acceptable voting results.

- Mockus resigned to the party after Peñalosa accepted Uribe’s support

- He supported Gina Parody, independent candidate for Bogotá, ran third after Petro and Peñalosa

- PV won 3 capital cities

• CONSERVATIVE PARTY- Enjoyed bureaucratic privileges during 8 years of Uribe’s Presidency Its votes determinant to pass many the legislative agenda, including reelection- Lost many important electoral strongholds. i.e. Antioquia- Acceptable results, although considered one of the big loosers.

• POLO DEMOCRATICO- The biggest loosers of the elections, related to the

corruption scandals of Samuel Moreno in Bogotá- Virtually dissappeared

• PROGRESISTAS (Citizen movement with signatures)- Won Bogotá with Gustavo Petro (ex member of the M-19 and of PDA).

Perspectives

From more or less closed two party system, to more that 70 parties in the 90’s, to multiparty system (6 o 7 parties).

In reality thePresident’s party (not government party) and no opposition party (¿Progresistas?),

However, no clear programatic differences.No oppositionAs Eduardo Posada wrote some weeks ago, politicians

should be worried.Last Gallup poll, 64% of colombians have an unfavorable

opinion of the parties. Also LAPOP

• Worst results since 2007.• 66% don’t consider themselves members of a

political party.• Volatile electorate• Politics synonym for corruption• Liberal Party convention (11/XI) under question by

some sectors: legitimacy and legality of decisions• Despite legal advances poor results for women

candidates

• However, moves to regain liberals that had left the party: PU, CR

• Political parties are not hearing what people are saying. Parties are not in the streets

• PROMOTE CREATION OF “NEW” PARTIES: government and opposition.

• Take advantage that Colombians seem more tolerant, less attached to personal figures, more respectful of division of powers (LAPOP)

• Take care of citizens’ concerns: inequality, poverty and corruption