Region 6 Progress Report –What we have heard and found George Erickcek Brian Pittelko W.E. Upjohn...
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Transcript of Region 6 Progress Report –What we have heard and found George Erickcek Brian Pittelko W.E. Upjohn...
Region 6 Progress Report –What we have heard and found
George ErickcekBrian Pittelko
W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research
September 11, 2014
Progress Report
• What have we heard on the Listening Tour so far?
• Further analysis of the region– Traffic patterns– The region’s demand and supply of talent– Water
• Back to the Future• Preview of the Oct 2nd and 3rd charette
2
What have we heard?
Challenges:• Lack of funding to provide services to meet demand.
This sentiment was heard across all activities.• Lack of a skilled workforce, a growing shortage of
workers, and low wages. Interesting comment: employers underestimate the cost of turnovers and loss of quality work due to their low wages.
• A disconnect with Flint. Overall, we found that on the east side of the region, individuals looked North and South, not East and West.
3
What have we heard?
Challenges:• Lack of regional identity. The Thumb is the
thumb; St. Clair is tied to Macomb; Shiawassee is focused on Shiawassee; Flint is Flint.
• Lack of post-secondary education in the Thumb area
• Rail service and natural gas in the Thumb• Public transportation especially in rural areas
4
What have we heard?
Strengths (some surprises):• Collaboration among and within counties –
Existing partnerships and sharing resources• Colleges, education, workforce development
system• Good mix of rural, urban, suburban population –
Good communities to raise families
5
What have we heard?
Asset:I-69, I-75, I-94 Skilled workforceStrong networking Rail and bridge to CanadaColleges and education system Nice place to live and raise familyShared history with auto industry Sharing services and resourcesWater pipeline Geographic and population
diversityDiversity of businesses Some value-added activity in
agriculture Airport
6
What have we heard?
One Big Thing:• An incubator center; providing help to startups• Transportation and logistics growth and expansion
(public transportation, highways, rail, airport, water pipeline)
• Better educated and skilled workforce• More funding• Collaboration – getting over distrust and hurdles
7
Who we need to talk to
• Craig Coney, Genesee/Shiawassee Michigan Works! Inc.• Troy Napier, Baker College• Bill Kaufman, County Administrator of St. Clair• Jim Wilson, Director of Blue Water Transit• Greg Alexander, Drain Commissioner, Sandusky• Mike McCarten, St. Clair Mental Health Services • James Freed, City Manager, Port Huron• MacKenzie Price, Huron County Community Foundation• Joan Nagelkirk, Sanilac County Community Foundation• Rand Maiers, Community Foundation for St. Clair County• Ken Micklash, Tuscola County Community Foundation
8
Traffic Count Data for I-69 vs. I-94
Port Huron, St. Clair County Area
MDOT 2012 Average Daily Traffic (ADT) Maps
9
Traffic count data is per day (24-hour period), travelling in both directions
10
Map of the SE Michigan area, note that the ADT counts on I-69 increase to 20-30k west of Imlay City and remain at that level all the way to Perry, in Shiawassee county
11
Traffic on I-94 is in the mid 20k’s to 40k between the I-69/I-94 interchange and Port Huron. Traffic dips to around 22k further south on I-94.
Traffic on I-69 is between 12-14k
12
The region’s employers are hiring more educated workers
Genesee
Huron
Lapeer
St. Clai
r
Sanila
c
Shiaw
assee
Tuscola
Region 6
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Educational Attainment of the Workforce 25 and Older, 2012
Total employment New hires Job creation
Pct.
bach
elor
’s o
r hig
her
Source: Census QWI 2012.13
The educational attainment levels of the region’s residents is low
Genesee
Huron
Lapeer
St. Clai
r
Sanila
c
Shiaw
assee
Tuscola
Region 6
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Educational Attainment of the Population 25 and Older
Total White Hispanic Black
Pct.
bach
elor
’s o
r hig
her
Source: Census ACS 2008–2012.14
In short the region is “importing” talent
Genesee
Huron
Lapeer
St. Clai
r
Sanila
c
Shiaw
assee
Tuscola
Region 6
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Educational Attainment Supply and Demand
Supply Demand
Pct.
of w
orkf
orce
or p
opul
ation
Source: Census ACS 2008–2012.15
A high percentage of the region’s minority population is struggling in poverty
Genesee
Huron
Lapeer
St. Clai
r
Sanila
c
Shiaw
assee
Tuscola
Region 6
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Poverty by Race/Ethnicity
Total White Hispanic Black
Pct.
of p
opul
ation
Source: Census ACS 2008–2012.16
A.L.I.C.E.Asset Limited, Income Constrained, Employed
• A project to examine what it costs to survive for working people in Michigan
• Unlike the federal poverty rate, the ALICE budget looks at local conditions including housing, childcare, food, transportation, healthcare, taxes, and miscellaneous expenses to build a household survival budget
17
The monthly budget and necessary income for a 2- adult, 2-child (one infant, one in childcare) family
Genesee Huron Lapeer St. Clair Sanilac Shiawassee Tuscola
Housing 646 584 798 798 587 631 584
Child care 1,210 1,059 1,188 1,196 1,196 1,100 1,075
Food 592 592 592 592 592 592 592
Transport. 681 681 805 805 681 681 681
Health care 518 518 458 458 518 518 518
Misc. 395 367 424 425 386 379 369
Taxes 308 237 401 404 284 266 243 Monthly total
4,350 4,039 4,666 4,678 4,245 4,167 4,063
Annual total 52,202 48,466 55,992 56,135 50,935 50,007 48,754
Hourly wage 26.10 24.23 28.00 28.07 25.47 25.00 24.38
Source: A.L.I.C.E. Report, http://www.unitedwayalice.org/michigan/18
A quarter of the region’s residents are just getting by financially
Genesee
Huron
Lapeer
St. Clai
r
Sanila
c
Shiaw
assee
Tuscola
Region 6
Mich
igan
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
19
14
9
15 15 1714
17 16
2427
2528 27
24 2225 24
Household Income
Below Poverty A.L.I.C.E.
Pct.
of h
ouse
hold
s
Source: A.L.I.C.E. Report, http://www.unitedwayalice.org/michigan/ 19
Karegnondi Water Authority
• Started construction at Lake Huron water pumping station on June 28, 2013
• Water line is expected to be finished in 2015• Provides water to southern Sanilac Co., Lapeer
Co., and the city of Flint • 85 million gallons of water per day pumped
from Lake Huron
20
What happens in the Detroit MSA matters
Economic activity in Detroit
I-69 Corridor Thumb Area
3,000 auto assembly jobs
Employment 330 40
Personal income $31.0 million $3.7 million
3,000 management jobs
Employment 160 16
Personal income $20.0 million $2.1 million
Note: Personal income includes commuters.
22
Population and household impact of job creation in the thumb
Opening of an auto supplier creating 100 jobs
23
The Thumb 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8Employment 188 196 200 201 201 201 200 199 Direct 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 Indirect 88 96 100 101 101 101 100 99Personal income ($mill) 8.583 9.847 11.221 12.496 13.663 14.725 15.729 16.688Population 74 139 198 251 299 342 381 416Households (2.5 persons) 30 55 79 100 120 137 153 166
I-69 Corridor ImpactEmployment 17 18 19 19 19 18 18 19Population 5 9 12 15 18 19 20 22
Years In Operation
Source: Upjohn Institute REMI model.
Population and household impact of job creation in the I-69 corridor
Opening of an auto supplier creating 100 jobs
24
I-69 Corridor 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8Employment 291 301 308 310 312 313 313 314 Direct 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 Indirect 191 201 208 210 212 213 213 214Personal income ($mill) 15.663 17.391 19.566 21.683 23.596 25.425 27.168 28.858Population 120 222 312 393 467 535 595 650Households (2.5 persons) 48 89 125 157 187 214 238 260
Thumb ImpactEmployment 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5Population 2 4 6 8 9 10 11 12
Years In Operation
Source: Upjohn Institute REMI model.
The charette on October 2nd and 3rd – What to expect
• Data driven and supported–What more do you want us to explore?
• Highly interactive–Our biggest concerns are avoiding
group think and path dependency
25