Reference materials - IEEJeneken.ieej.or.jp/data/6370.pdf · Reference Scenario Advanced...

Reference materials

IEEJ：November 2015, All Rights Reserved.

Energy outlook in Asia and the world 2013-2040


Primary energy consumption (regional share)

• Reflecting a steady economic growth, energy consumption in Non-OECD exceeds that of OECD. • Energy consumption in Asia exhibits a rapid growth, with the share of Asia in the world energy

consumption expanding from 40% in 2013 to 46% by 2040. • By 2040, the share of China in the world energy consumption increases to 22%, and India to 10% (for a

total of 32%). The share of Japan declines from 3% in 2013 to 2% of the world energy consumption in 2040.

Share in increases (2013-2040)

Asia accounts for more than 60% of total growth.

Reference Scenario

61 56 51 5239 36 33 29

36 41 46 4558 61 64 67

3 2 2 3 3 3 3 3

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1971 1980 1990 2000 2013 2020 2030 2040

OECD

Non-OECD

Bunker

7 8 10 1222 23 23 223 3 3 4

6 7 8 10

5 5 5

5

3 3 3 2

2 2 34

4 5 6 7

2 23

4

4 4 5 5

31 28 2425

18 17 15 13

23 21 1817 13 12 11 9

15 17 18 10 9 8 7 7

13 14 16 19 21 22 23 25

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1971 1980 1990 2000 2013 2020 2030 2040

North America

OECD Europe

Non-OECD

Europe

China

Other Asia

Other

i ncl. Bunker

India

ASEAN

Japan

China India Japan ASEAN Other Asia N.America OECD Europe

22% 20% 0% 14% 6% 0% 1%


Primary energy consumption (world)

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

1980 1990 2000 2013 2020 2030 2040

10,057

7,205

8,768

13,555

15,207

17,211

18,963

14,61515,702 16,396

Mtoe

Adv. Tech.

Reference -2,600 Mtoe (-14%)

Non-OECD -1,600 Mtoe (61% of total saving)

OECD -1,000 Mtoe (39% of total saving)

Asia -1,200 Mtoe (45% of total saving)

• In 2040, total primary energy consumption in the Advanced Technologies Scenario is 2,600 Mtoe (about 14%) lower than the Reference Scenario. This saving is more than 5.6 times Japan’s total consumption in 2013.

• In the Advanced Technologies Scenario, Non-OECD contributes to about 60% of the potential savings. The potential in Asia is particularly significant.

Reference Scenario Advanced Technologies Scenario


Primary energy consumption (Asia)

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

1980 1990 2000 2013 2020 2030 2040

2,920Adv. Tech

1,4402,110

5,409

6,411

7,5678,691

Reference

6,213

6,961 7,534

Mtoe

-1,160 Mtoe (-13%)

India -250 Mtoe (21% of saving in Asia)

China -690 Mtoe (60% of saving in Asia)

Other Asia -210 Mtoe (19% of saving in Asia)

• The potential savings in Asia under the Advanced Technologies Scenario is 1,160 Mtoe (equivalent to about 2.5 times Japan’s current consumption). China and India combined, which account for 70% of the Asia’s consumption, have 81% of the saving potential.



0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1971 1980 1990 2000 2013 2020 2030 2040

%

Oil

Coal

Natural Gas

Nuclear

Hydro

Other Renewables

28%

22%

9.7%

2.7%

19%

18%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1971 1980 1990 2000 2013 2020 2030 2040

%

Oil

Coal

Natural Gas

NuclearHydro

Other Renewables

29%

25%

5.9%

2.3%

24%14%


Primary energy mix (world)

• In the Reference Scenario, the oil’s share decreases substantially to 29%, while the shares for natural gas and renewables expand substantially.

• In the Advanced Technologies Scenario, coal significantly decreases mainly in Non-OECD while the shares for nuclear and renewables gradually expand. Fossil fuels, nonetheless, remain the most important source for energy in the primary energy mix in 2040, maintaining about 70% share.


Reference Scenario

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1971 1980 1990 2000 2013 2020 2030 2040

%

Oil

Coal

Natural Gas

NuclearHydro

Other Renewables

24%

33%

15%

10%

2.6%

16%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1971 1980 1990 2000 2013 2020 2030 2040

%

Oil

Coal

Natural GasNuclearHydro

Other

Renewables

24%

41%

16%

5.5%

2.1%

Primary energy mix (Asia)

• Coal keeps the biggest share of primary energy consumption driven by the power generation demand through 2040. The share drops from 51% in 2013 to 41% in 2040 in the Reference Scenario and to 33% in the Advanced Technologies Scenario.

• Natural gas continues to grow in both scenarios. In the Advanced Technologies Scenario, the share of nuclear gradually increases with additional nuclear power plants in China, India and Korea.

Advanced Technologies Scenario


52% 61% 59%

68% 62% 56% 51%43%

15%14%

19%

16%17% 18% 19%

19%

5%7%

11% 14%

14%

3%5%

6%

10%

3%3%

2%

3%

30%23%

18%

8%

8%

8%8%

11%

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

Adv. Tech.

1980 1990 2000 2013 2020 2030 2040

Mtoe

Renewables

Hydro

Nuclear

Gas

Oil

Coal

-694 Mtoe (-16.4%)

Primary energy consumption in China

• TPED increases at an annual rate of 1.3% in the Reference Scenario at the back of robust economic growth. Oil expands reflecting rapid motorization.

• Natural gas increases sharply for residential and commercial use, especially in urban areas. • In the Advanced Technologies Scenario, coal consumption decreases, especially in power generation,

TPED is 694 Mtoe, or 16.4% lower than that in the Reference Scenario in 2040.



38% 37% 40%

48% 46% 41% 38% 38%

5% 5%11%

14%15% 17% 19%

19%

55%52%

41%

30%31%

33%34%

33%

6%8%

8%

8%

9%9%

10%

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Adv. Tech.

1980 1990 2000 2013 2020 2030 2040

Mtoe

Non-energy

Building etc.

Transport

Industry

Final energy consumption in China

• Final energy consumption increases strongly, reaching 2,604 Mtoe in 2040, from 1,814 Mtoe in 2013. • Energy consumption of heavy industries which has been strong up until now grows relatively slowly in the future. • By contrast, energy consumption of the buildings and transport sectors increase substantially. The share of the buildings

sector reaches 34% in 2040 from 30% in 2013. • In the Advanced Technologies Scenario, energy consumption of the buildings and industry sectors is expected to have

large potential for reduction, final energy consumption is 327 Mtoe, or 12.6% lower than the Reference Scenario.


-327 Mtoe (-12.6%)


31% 33%44% 43%

43%44%

32%20%

25%

23%25%

26%

25%

25%6%

7%

9%

11%

11%

2%

4%

4%

10%2%

2%

2%

58%44%

34%

25%

22%

17%

14%

20%

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

Adv.Tech

1980 1990 2000 2013 2020 2030 2040

Mtoe

Renewables

Hydro

Nuclear

Gas

Oil

Coal

Primary energy consumption in India

• In the Reference Scenario, TPED increases at an annual rate of 3.2%. Fossil fuels account for 81% of the increases by 2040. • Driven by the power generation and industry sectors, coal maintains the largest share at about 44% throughout the

projection period. Coal increases to 464 Mtoe. This increases is equivalent to the TPED of Japan. • The power and industry sectors also lead natural gas consumption growth. Although development of domestic resources

is expected, much of the natural gas consumption should be met by imports. • TPED in 2040 in the Advanced Technologies Scenario is 248 Mtoe, or 13.6% lower compared with the Reference Scenario.

-248 Mtoe (-13.6%)



27% 26%34% 34% 35%

36% 34%14%16%

18%

18%18%

63%59% 55%

45%42%

39%

37%39%

7%

7%

8%

8%

9%

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

Adv.Tech

1980 1990 2000 2013 2020 2030 2040

Mtoe

Non-energy

Buildings etc.

Transport

Industry

Note: The industry sector includes non-energy use.

Final energy consumption in India

• Industry increases rapidly due to industrialization and production increases from the heavy industry. Energy consumption for industry and transport sectors are 2.4 times and 2.8 times of current energy consumption, respectively.

• Electricity consumption grows at an annual rate of 5.0%. • In the Advanced Technologies Scenario, energy consumption is 120 Mtoe, or 10.3% lower in 2040 compared to the

Reference Scenario. Renovation with the India’s developed ICT and industrialization will promote energy efficiency.


-120 Mtoe (-10.3%)


2013 4,210 Mtoe (87 Mb/d) 2040 Reference Scenario 5,496 Mtoe (114 Mb/d) Advanced Technologies Scenario 4,658 Mtoe (96 Mb/d)

Saving: 839 Mtoe (15%)

Asia

N.America

Europe

Others(+Bunker)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

1971 1980 1990 2000 2013 2020 2030 2040

Mtoe

37%

14%

13%

35%

30%

20%

19%

31%

799

-67 -76

63062%

-5% -6%

49%

Asia N.America Europe Others

(+Bunker)

Increase from 2013 to 2040

Oil consumption by region (world)

• The share of Asia in the world oil consumption increases from 30% in 2013 to 37% in 2040. About 62% of the global oil growth takes place in Asia.

• In the Advanced Technologies Scenario, the world oil consumption is 840 Mtoe (15%) lower in 2040 compared to the Reference Scenario.

Reference Scenario (solid) Advanced Technologies Scenario (dotted)


2013 1,254 Mtoe (25.9 Mb/d) 2040 Reference Scenario 2,053 Mtoe (42.5 Mb/d) Advanced Technologies Scenario 1,778 Mtoe (36.8 Mb/d)

Saving: 275 Mtoe (13%)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

1971 1980 1990 2000 2013 2020 2030 2040

China India Japan

Korea Taiwan Indonesia

Malaysia Philippines Thailand

Vietnam Singapore Hong Kong

Other Asia Adv. Tech

Mtoe

7%

39%

22%

16%

14%

38% China

India

Japan

AAGR China India Japan Korea Taiwan Singapore

1980-2013 5.2% 5.2% -0.4% 4.0% 2.3% 3.6%2013-2040 1.9% 3.5% -1.5% 0.0% 0.4% 1.3%

Indonesia Malaysia Phi l i ppines Thailand Vietnam Other As ia

4.1% 4.2% 0.8% 4.9% 6.7% 3.9%2.6% 2.0% 3.5% 2.1% 4.9% 3.0%

Oil consumption by region (Asia)

• Though the vehicles’ fuel efficiency improves and clean energy vehicles expand, oil consumption in Asia expands from 25.9 million b/d in 2013 to 42.5 Mb/d in 2040, due mainly to its escalating vehicle ownership. The share of China and India combined in Asian oil consumption grows from 52% in 2013 to 61% in 2040.

• Oil savings in the Advanced Technologies Scenario are equivalent to 13% of the Reference Scenario in 2040.

Reference Scenario (solid) Advanced Technologies Scenario (dotted)


0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

1971 1980 1990 2000 2013 2020 2030 2040

million vehicles

Others

Europe

Asia

N.America

16%

20%

23%

40%

17%

0.95bil.inc

2.1bil.

1.2bil.

33%

23%

27%

The Number of Vehicles (World) Reference Adv. Tech.

60

2013

0.32 bil.

↓ 2040

0.86 bil.

(2.7-fold inc.)

Asia

2013

1.2 bil.

↓ 2040

2.1 bil.

(1.8-fold inc.)

World

40% of the world vehicle stocks is concentrated in Asia in 2040. The share of vehicle stocks in OECD countries declines from 61% in 2013 to 43% in 2040. The stock in Non-OECD countries surpasses that of OECD by 2040.

542

77 107220



57%

8%23%

11%


0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1971 1980 1990 2000 2013 2020 2030 2040

million vehicles

Other Asia

China

India

Japan

46%

23%

39%

27%

23%

8%

10%24%

541mil.inc.

322mil.

863mil.

The Number of Vehicles (Asia) Reference Adv. Tech.

61

2013 127 mil.

↓ 2040

398 mil.

(3.1-fold inc.)

China

2013 32 mil.

↓ 2040

200 mil.

(6.2-fold inc.)

India

Ownership rate in 2040

Japan：62%

India：13%

China：29%

China vehicle stock expands substantially due to an increase in the income level. The stock of vehicle in China increases from 127 million units in 2013 to 398 million units in 2040. India’s vehicle stock surpasses that of Japan around 2025, increasing from 32 million units in 2013 to 200 million units in 2040.

271

-5.5

168109

China Japan India Other Asia


50%31% 20%


Biofuel Consumption in Asia and the World (2040)

62

In the Reference Scenario, the world biofuel consumption is expected to reach 130 Mtoe by 2040, mainly driven by the growth in North America, Europe and Latin America. Asia reaches 20 Mtoe of biofuel by 2040. The share of biofuel in global liquid fuel amounts to 3.1% in 2040.

In Asia, ethanol consumption mainly increases in China, India and Japan, while biodiesel increases in Korea, and Malaysia.

In the Advanced Technologies Scenario, the world biofuel consumption reaches 210 Mtoe by 2040, and that of Asia reaches 55 Mtoe.

World

Asia 6.35

25.08

1.53

10.89

1.94 1.94 0.24 0.63 0.42 1.05 0.80 1.37

3.26 3.68

0.8%

3.6%

0.3%

2.7%

1.4% 1.7%

0.2% 0.7% 0.8% 2.3% 2.3% 4.7%

3.4% 3.8%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Ref. Adv.

Tech.

Ref. Adv.

Tech.

Ref. Adv.

Tech.

Ref. Adv.

Tech.

Ref. Adv.

Tech.

Ref. Adv.

Tech.

Ref. Adv.

Tech.

China India Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Thailand

Mto

e

Bio-diesel

Bio-ethanol

Total share in primary oil demand

2013 68 mil.toe

↓ 2040

Ref. Adv.Tech 130 mil.toe 210 mil.toe

(1.8-fold inc.) (3.1-fold inc.)

2013 5.0 mil.toe

↓ 2040

Ref. Adv.Tech 20 mil.toe 55 mil.toe

(4.1-fold inc.) (11-fold inc.)

Reference Adv. Tech.


50 55 58 61

51

10 10

12 12

10

27 27

33 38

32

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Reference Adv.Tech.

2013 2020 2030 2040

Middle East OPECOther OPECNon-OPEC

Mb/d

2013 37 mil. b/d

↓ 2040

Ｒｅｆｅｒｅｎｃe Adv.Tech 50 mil. b/d 42 mil. b/d (14mil. b/d inc.) (6mil. b/d inc.)

2013 50 mil. b/d

↓ 2040

Ｒｅｆｅｒｅｎｃe Adv.Tech

61 mil. b/d 51 mil. b/d (11mil. b/d inc.) (1mil. b/d inc.)

OPEC

Non-OPEC

50% of the increases in world oil consumption is met by OPEC. OPEC`s share of world oil production in 2040 increases to 44%.

However, the domestic oil consumption in the Middle East OPEC is also projected to increase significantly. Enhancement of production capacity and improvement of energy efficiency in the Middle East OPEC is necessary to ensure availability of oil supply to the world market.

Oil Production

Reference Adv.Tech.

Middle East OPEC 44% 68%Other OPEC 10% 7%Non-OPEC 42% 11%

Share of the worldoil production

increase



Oil Demand and Supply in Asia

Net Oil Import

2013 18.06MB/D

↓ 2040

Reference 34.91MB/D

(1.9times)

Adv. Tech. 29.52MB/D

(1.6times)

In the Reference Scenario, net oil import is projected to expand to 1,688 million ton (34.91 mb/d) in 2040 from 873 million ton (18.06 mb/d) in 2013. With the sluggish oil production of in Asia area (China, India, Indonesia), net oil import ratio reaches 82% in 2040.

In the Advanced Technologies Scenario, oil demand grows at a relatively slow rate, but net oil import ratio still increases to 80% in 2040.

64

477618

1,254

1,483

1,771

2,053

227301

380 365 375 365250

317

873

1,118

1,396

1,688

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

1980 1990 2013 2020 2030 2040

Demand Production Net Import

52%51%

70%

75%

79%82%

Mtoe 80%Adv.Tech.



89119

478

595

704

797

108138

210 193 208 203

(19) (20)

268

402

496

594

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1980 1990 2013 2020 2030 2040


Mtoe

-22%-16%

56%

67%

70%

Dependency on Imported Oil

75%

Oil Demand and Supply in China

Adv. Tech. 70％

Net Oil Import

2013 5.55MB/D

↓ 2040

Reference 12.28MB/D

(2.2imes)

Adv. Tech. 9.82MB/D

(1.8times)

Net oil import is projected to expand to 584 million ton (12.28 mb/d) in 2040. As a result, net oil import ratio reaches 75% in 2040.

In the Advanced Technologies Scenario, oil demand grows at a relatively slow rate, but net oil import ratio still increases to 70% in 2040.

In order to sustain domestic oil production, continued investments are required to explore and develop oil fields in the western part of China and offshore. 65



Oil Demand and Supply in India

Net oil import is projected to expand from 132 million ton (2.7mb/d) in 2013 to 419 million ton (8.7 Mb/d) in 2040. Net oil import ratio reaches 93% in 2040.

In the Advanced Technologies Scenario, net oil import ratio reaches 92% by 2040.

Net Oil Import

2013 2.7MB/D

↓ 2040

Reference 8.7MB/D

(3.2folds)

Adv. Tech. Adv.

7.5MB/D

(2.7folds)

66

3361

176

248

348

451

935 44 39 34 3124 27

132

209

314

419

0

100

200

300

400

500

1980 1990 2013 2020 2030 2040


Mtoe

72%43%

75%

84%

90%

Dependence of Imports

93%

Adv.Tech. 92%



Natural Gas Consumption by Region (World) Reference Adv. Tech.

67

2013 2.9 billion toe

(3.5 trillion m3) (2.4 bil. tons LNG)

↓ 2040

Reference 4.7 billion toe


Adv. Tech. 3.7 billion toe


1.08 bil. toe

(23％) Reduction

The world natural gas consumption is expected to increase from 3.5 trillion cubic meters (tcm) in 2013 to 5.8 tcm in 2040, a 1.6-fold increase.

In the Advanced Technologies Scenario, natural gas consumption is 1.4 tcm lower than the Reference Scenario. Despite projected savings, natural gas consumption continues to grow in the Advanced Technologies Scenario suggesting further needs of energy resources development.

Asia

N.America

EuropeOthers(+Bunker)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

1971 1980 1990 2000 2013 2020 2030 2040

30%

18%

24%

28%

18%

24%

34%

24%

1.8 bil.toe

Mtoe

885

153 154

647

48%

8% 8%

35%




Natural Gas Consumption by Country (Asia) Reference Adv. Tech.

68

0.27 bil. toe

(19％) Reduction

2013 0.53 billion toe (646 billion m3)

(0.43 bil. tons LNG) ↓

2040

Reference 1.42 billion toe


Adv. Tech. 1.15 billion toe


Natural gas consumption in China considerably increases (5.4%/y) due mainly to the increasing consumption for power generation and use in urban areas. India’s natural gas consumption also expands but at a similar pace (5.6%/y), representing more than a four-fold increase from 2013 to 2040.

In the Advanced Technologies Scenario, the Asia natural gas consumption is 325 bcm (or 19%) lower than the Reference Scenario by 2040. Even in this scenario, natural gas consumption increases at a relatively fast pace of 3.7% per year through 2040.

0

500

1000

1500

1971 1980 1990 2000 2013 2020 2030 2040

China India Japan

Korea Taipei Indonesia



Other Asia Adv. Tech

China

India

Japan

Mtoe

8%

41%

14%

10%

24%

21%

AAGR China India Japan Korea Taipei Singapore

1980-2012 7.7% 11.4% 5.0% － 6.6% －

2012-2040 5.4% 5.6% 0.2% 0.7% 3.1% 1.4%


5.9% 9.0% －－－ 5.8%4.2% 1.5% 4.9% 2.1% 6.7% 4.1%


0

100

200

300

400

2014 2040 2014 2040 2014 2040 2014 2040 2014 2040

Asia Europe America Middle East Africa

(million ton)

LNG imports (world)

• World LNG demand expands from 239 million tons in 2014 to 547 Mt in 2040 (2.3 times). • Asia’s LNG demand increases by 214 Mt, accounting for about 70% of the world’s LNG demand growth,

whereas the growth in Europe (56 Mt) accounts for around 20%. LNG import from North America to Latin America increases by 6 Mt.

• LNG supply capacity is sufficient to meet demand if new LNG projects starts on schedule in the future.

Reference Scenario


0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

North America

Latin America

Middle East OECDEurope

non-OECDEurope・

Central Asia

Africa China South Asia ASEAN Oceania

2013 2040(Bcm)

Natural gas production expands to meet the increasing demand around the world especially in North America, the Middle East, Russia, Africa, China, India and Australia.

Unconventional gas is to be commercialized gradually in Latin America, the Middle East, non-OECD Europe/Central Asia, and OECD-Europe in addition to North America and China.

Production in 2040 5,753 Bcm

＋2,233 Bcm from 2013

Share of the increase North & Latin America 23% Middle East 19% Africa 13%

Natural Gas Production (World) Reference


Asia accounts for about 80% of the world coal consumption growth through 2040. The share of Asia in total coal consumption expands to 77% in 2040 from 70% in 2013.

In the Advanced Technologies Scenario, the world coal consumption in 2040 is 1.5 billion toe (or 32%) lower compared with the Reference Scenario.

2013 3.9 billion toe (5.6 billion tce*)

↓ 2040

Reference 4.6 billion toe (6.5 billion tce*)

Adv.Tech. 3.1 billion toe (4.4 billion tce*)

1.5 bil. toe

(32％) Reduction

71

Coal Consumption by Region (World) Reference Adv. Tech.

*Tons of coal equivalent

Asia

N.America

Europe

Others

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

1971 1980 1990 2000 2013 2020 2030 2040

Mtoe

77%

6%

10%

7%

70%

11%

13%

6%

0.65 bil. toe798

-181 -70 102

123%

-28% -11%16%

アジア北米欧州その他




0

1000

2000

3000

4000

1971 1980 1990 2000 2013 2020 2030 2040

China IndiaJapan KoreaTaiwan IndonesiaMalaysia PhilippinesThailand VietnamSingapore Hong KongOther Asia China

India

Japan

Mtoe

3%

61%

23%4%

12%

74%

The power sector, mainly in China and India, drives coal consumption. Both those countries have abundant domestic coal reserves.

In the Advanced Technologies Scenario, coal consumption in Asia by 2040 is 1.1 billion toe (or 31%) lower due to a shift to natural gas and the enhancement of power generation efficiency compared to the Reference Scenario.

1.1 bil. toe

(31％) Reduction

2013 2.7 billion toe (3.9 billion tce*)

↓ 2040

Reference 3.5 billion toe (5.1 billion tce*)

Adv. Tech. 2.5 billion toe (3.5 billion tce*)

72

Coal Consumption by Country (Asia) Reference Adv. Tech.

*Tons of coal equivalent

AAGR China India Japan Korea Taipei Singapore

1980-2011 5.9% 6.3% 2.2% 5.4% 7.3% 14.6%2011-2040 0.2% 3.2% -0.2% 0.4% -0.2% 2.3%


17.4% 18.7% 9.7% 11.5% 6.0% -0.7%5.3% 2.7% 3.5% 2.2% 5.2% 2.9%


Asia accounts for 60% of the world electricity consumption growth through 2040, and the share of Asia in total electricity consumption expands to almost 50%.

In the Advanced Technologies Scenario, the world electricity consumption in 2040 is 5,126TWh (or 15%) lower compared to the Reference Scenario.

2013 19,494TWh

↓ 2040

Reference 33,613 TWh

Adv.Tech 28,487TWh

5,126TWh (15%)

Reduction

73

Electricity Consumption by Region (World) Reference Adv. Tech.

Asia

N.America

Europe

Others

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

1971 1980 1990 2000 2013 2020 2030 2040

50%

15%

17%

18%

41%

22%

22%

14,118TWh

TWh

15%

8,770

971 1,301

3,07662%

7% 9%

22%

Asia North America Europe Others

Amount of increase from 2013 to 2040


0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

1971 1980 1990 2000 2013 2020 2030 2040

China India Japan

Korea Taiwan Indonesia



Other Asia Myanmar

TWh

7%

49%

20%

China

Japan

7%

50%

20%

12%

11%

56%

India

2,375 TWh (14%)

Reduction

2013 7,983 TWh

↓ 2040

Reference 16,754 TWh

Adv.Tech 14,379 TWh

Electricity consumption in Asia increases rapidly driven by the improvement of living standards. Electricity consumption in China expands 185% by 2040, and India expands 368% during the same period.

Through 2040, electricity consumption increases at a faster rate than final energy consumption (Reference Scenario at 2.8%, and Advanced Technologies Scenario at 2.2% per year).

74

Electricity Consumption by Country (Asia) Reference Adv. Tech.

AAGR China India Japan Korea Taiwan Singapore

1980-2013 9.2% 7.2% 1.9% 8.5% 5.7% 6.6%2013-2040 2.3% 5.0% 0.7% 1.6% 1.1% 1.5%

Indonesia Malaysia Ph i l ippines Thailand Vietnam Other Asia

10.7% 8.5% 4.0% 8.0% 12.0% 4.9%5.3% 3.7% 3.9% 3.2% 5.9% 4.5%


0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

1971 1980 1990 2000 2013 2020 2030 2040

TWh

Power Generation Mix by Source (World)

Coal-fired generation maintains the biggest share in the power generation mix by 2040. Gas fired generation increases due to technology import of Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle. In the Advanced Technologies Scenario, the share of coal-fired generation decreases substantially to 24%, while

that of renewable energy and nuclear increases.

Oil-fired 4%→3% [2%]

Nuclear 11%→11% [18%]

Other Renewables 6%→11% [19%]

Hydro 16%→13% [15%]

Coal fired 41%→35% [24%]

Gas-fired 22%→28% [21%]

Share2013→2040 Reference [Adv. Tech.]

75

80-’13 13-’40Total 3.2% 2.0%Coal 3.5% 1.3%Oil -1.4% 0.0%

Ｇａｓ 5.0% 3.0%

AAGR


0

10

20

30

40

50

1971 1980 1990 2000 2013 2020 2030 2040

%

Nuclear

Other Renewables

Gas-firedHydro

Coal-fired

Oil-fired

0

10

20

30

40

50

1971 1980 1990 2000 2013 2020 2030 2040

%

Oil-fired

Coal-fired

Gas-fired

Nuclear

Hydro

Other Renewables

Reference Scenario Adv.Tech Scenario

76

Power Generation Mix by Source (World)

35%

24%

28%

21%

13% 15% 11% 18%

11%

19%

3% 2%

In the Ref. Scenario, Coal-fired generation maintains the biggest share in the power generation mix by 2040.

In the Advanced Technologies Scenario, the share of coal-fired generation decreases substantially, while that of renewable energy and nuclear increases.


0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

1971 1980 1990 2000 2013 2020 2030 2040

TWh

The Asia’s share of coal in the generation mix remains higher than 50%, reflecting resources availability. The share of natural gas increases from 13% in 2013 to 19% in 2040. The share of nuclear power generation

remains 9% in 2040. In the Advanced Technologies Scenario, the share of coal declines from 63% in 2013 to 38% in 2040. Clean coal

technology (CCT) is expected to play an important role in addressing global warming issues.

Oil-fired 3%→1% [1%]

Coal-fired 63%→53% [38%]

Gas-fired 13%→19% [15%]

Nuclear 4% → 9% [18%]

Other Renewables 4%→7% [14%]

Hydro 14%→11% [14%]

77

Power Generation Mix by Source (Asia) Solid line: Reference Dotted line: Adv. Tech.

Share2013→2040 Reference [Adv. Tech.]

80-’13 13-’40Total 6.5% 6.5%Coal 9.5% 9.5%Oil -1.3% -1.3%Gas 8.2% 8.2%

AAGR


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1971 1980 1990 2000 2013 2020 2030 2040

%

Oil-fired

Coal-fired

Gas-fired

Nuclear

Hydro

Other Renewables0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1971 1980 1990 2000 2013 2020 2030 2040

%

Oil-fired

Coal-fired

Gas-firedNuclear

Hydro

Other Renewables

In Asia, the share of coal-fired generation remains the highest in order to meet a growing electricity consumption.

In the Advanced Technologies Scenario, the share of coal-fired generation decreases substantially, substituted by increases in renewable energy, hydro and nuclear shares. 78

Power Generation Mix by Source (Asia)

Reference Scenario Adv.Tech Scenario

53%

19% 11%

7%

1%

9%

1%

14% 18%

13% 14%

38%


159

4,0905,816

3,636

851

603

911

1,362909

1,280

1,418

863

1,198

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

1980 2013 2040 2040

75%301

5,422

9,728

8,224

60%

44%

Coal

Nuclear

Gas

Hydro

Renewables

Adv. Tech.

31

7961,142

714

219

177

128

191280

418

463118

557

808

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

1980 2013 2040 2040

2,466

66

1,256

2,355

63%46%

30%

Coal

Nuclear

Gas

Hydro

Renewables

Adv. Tech.

Power Generation mix in China

Total power generation capacity increases on average by 45 GW per year, from 1,256GW in 2013 to 2,466 GW in 2040. The share of coal-fired power plant gradually declines to 46% in 2040.

Total power generation increases 80%, from 5,422 TWh in 2013 to 9,728 TWh in 2040. The share of coal-fired generation declines from 75% in 2013 to 60% in 2040.

Power generation from gas-fired, nuclear and renewables substantially increase. In the Advanced Technologies Scenario, generation from nuclear, hydro and renewable energy sharply expand to

substitute a further decline in coal-fired generation.

Capacity (GW) Power Generation (TWh)

Reference Reference

79


Power Generation Mix in India

Coal-fired power continues to account for the largest share. The generation efficiency improves led by the government’s Ultra Mega Power Project to introduce several 4GW-class super critical coal-fired power plants.

On the other hand, the share of natural gas and nuclear gradually expands and power generation mix becomes more diversified.

Nuclear capacity increases from 5.8 GW in 2015 to 47GW in 2040 (a 8.1-fold increase) in reference scenario, 90GW in 2040(a 15.6-fold increase) in Advanced Technologies Scenario.

Power Generation Power Generation Mix

80

61

869

2,623

1,535

619

545

308

591

142

373

373

253

654

120

1,193

4,196

3,715

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

1980 2013 2040 2040

TWh

Coal

Nuclear

Natural Gas

Hydro

Renew

-ables

73%

63%

Adv.Tech

41%

Reference

Oil

51%65% 73%

63%

41%

3%5%

15%

15%

3% 7%

16%

39%24% 12% 9%

10%

5% 6%18%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1980 1990 2013 2040 2040

Oil

Coal

Natural Gas

Nuc lear

Hydro

Renewables

Reference Adv.Tech


Nuclear Power Generation Capacity

Nuclear power generation capacity increases 224 GW in the Reference Scenario, and 482 GW in the Advanced Technologies Scenario up to 2040 with most of the increase concentrated in Asia. In the Advanced Technologies Scenario, nearly half of generation capacity is in Asia in 2040.

2014 386 GW

↓

2040

Reference 610 GW

(+224 GW)

Adv. Tech 868GW

(+482GW)

World


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

2020 2030 2040 2040

1980 2014 Ref Adv. Tech

GW

Asia

N.America

OECD Europe

FSU・

Non OECD Europe

Middle East・Africa

L.America

23%

30%

33%

11%

43%

20%

20%

13%

48%

16%

17%

12%

Actual← →Estimation

482GW

224GW


4

137

318

530

749

1,381

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

2005 2013 2020 2030 2040 2040

gW

←Actual Forecast→

Asia

Eu rope

OECD

Adv.Tech

Afr ica


Asia

North

America

Adv.Tech

Afr ica

Solar PV and Wind Power Generation Capacity (World)

Renewable energy will increase by support measures such as, technological developments, Feed-in Tariff(FIT) and subsidy.

In the Ref Scenario, Solar Power Plant Capacity increases to 749GW and Wind Power Plant Capacity increases to 998GW by 2040.

The component ratio of solar and wind energy increases from 2.0% in 2013 to 4.4% in 2040. In the Advanced Technologies Scenario, Solar Power Plant Capacity increases to 1,381GW by2040, and

wind capacity increases to 1,579GW.

2013 318 GW

↓ 2040

Ref. Adv.Tech 998 GW 1,579GW (3 times) (5 times)

Wind Solar PV

Wind Power

Solar Power World Asia

World Asia 2013

116GW ↓

2040 Ref. Adv.Tech 468 GW 805GW

(4times) (7times)

2013 38GW ↓

2040 Ref. Adv.Tech 373 GW 676GW (9times) (18times)

2013 137GW ↓

2040 Ref. Adv.Tech 749 GW 1,381GW (5times) (10 times)

59

318

504

755

998

1,579

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

2005 2013 2020 2030 2040 2040

gw


Asia

Europe

OECD

North

America

Adv.Tech

Afr ica


457

372

303

687

641

566 540

529 489

456 429

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

1971

1980

1990

2000

2013

2020

2030

2040

Reference

g-CO2/kWh

Adv. Tech.

569

476

395

635 638 612

646 655

603 570

540

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

1971

1980

1990

2000

2013

2020

2030

2040

Referenceg-CO2/kWh

Adv. Tech.

World Asia

*560g-CO2/kWh **350g-CO2/kWh

Japan(2013)*

Japan(1998)**

Carbon Intensity of Electricity (CO2 Emissions per kWh)

Growth of Nuclear and

Gas-fired

The average CO2 emissions per kWh is reduced substantially reflecting the expansion in nuclear and renewable energy as well as efficiency improvements in fossil-fired power generation.

In the Advanced Technologies Scenario, the average CO2 emissions per kWh in the world in 2040 are 43% less than the 2013 level. In Asia, the reduction reaches 40%. 83


Fossil fuel international trade


Oil

Natural Gas

Oil and natural gas net import

• While oil consumption expands in Asia up to 2040, North America turns into an exporting region. • Oil production increase in the Middle East is imperative in correspondence with Asian consumption

increase. • Asia also increases natural gas imports. Exports from North America increase largely.

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

Middle East Non OECD

Europe/FSU

Africa L.America N.America China India OECD

Europe

ASEAN Japan,

Korea,

Taiwan

Other Asia Oceania

2013 2040

Reference

Mb/d

→2040 net importer2040 net exporter←

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

Non OECD Europe/FSU

Middle East

N.America Africa Oceania ASEAN Other AsiaL.America India Japan, Korea, Taiwan

China OECD Europe

2013 2040 Reference

Bcm 2040 net exporter← →2040 net importer

Reference Scenario


Japan/Korea/Taiwan

Non-OECD Europe/Central Asia

North America

MiddleEast

LatinAmerica

Africa

OECD Europe

China

ASEAN

Oceania

SouthAsia

2,245

4,125

2,056

1,968

375

667

808

1,360

3,212

288

121356

776

662

285

2,785 1,861

1,403

5,815

152

Unit：Thousand b/d

Major crude oil trade flows (2014)

• This chart shows the crude oil flows for 2014, from production region such as the Middle East, Africa, Non-OECD/Central Asia, and Latin America, to consumption region such as North America, Asia, and Europe in the world.


Major crude oil trade flows (Reference Scenario, 2030)

• North America exports to Asia.

1,600

4,050

1,942

1,800

1,500

7,140

4,699

4,797

6,678

416

800

1,016

400

291

300500

773

800

600 200420

Unit：Thousand b/d

Japan/Korea/Taiwan


North America

MiddleEast

LatinAmerica

Africa

OECD Europe

China

ASEAN

Oceania

SouthAsia


Major crude oil trade flows (Reference Scenario, 2040)

• China’s crude oil imports reach 12 Mb/d and increase imports from multiple regions such as the Middle East, Africa, Non-OECD Europe/Central Asia.

• Crude oil exports from the Middle East to North America and Europe become zero.

2,550

4,610

1,640

2,600

1,750

6,950

3,934

5,710

7,200

160

900

700

460

820

180100

230

900

Unit：Thousand b/d

Japan/Korea/Taiwan


North America

MiddleEast

LatinAmerica

Africa

OECD Europe

China

ASEAN

Oceania

SouthAsia


Major crude oil trade flows (Lower Price Scenario, 2030)

• In the Lower Price Scenario, crude oil exports from the Middle East to North America and Europe become zero and most exports flow in Asia in 2030.

1,809

4,002

2,336

1,200

1,000

5,950

3,322

3,937

7,751

179

500

840

355

800760190

Unit：Thousand b/d

Japan/Korea/Taiwan


North America

MiddleEast

LatinAmerica

Africa

OECD Europe

China

ASEAN

Oceania

SouthAsia


Major natural gas trade flows (2014)

• In 2014, pipelines are used mainly to transport natural gas from Non-OECD Europe/Central Asia to OECD Europe while LNG is transported from ASEAN, Oceania, the Middle East to Japan/Korea/Taiwan.

Unit：BCM

30

29

142

20

1423

54

21

69

17

28

11

PipelineLNG

Japan/Korea/Taiwan


North America

MiddleEast

LatinAmerica

Africa

OECD Europe

China

ASEAN

Oceania

SouthAsia


Major natural gas trade flows (Reference Scenario, 2030)

• North America starts to supply Asia and OECD Europe. • Owing to a geographical reason, China and South Asia increase imports from traditional producers

such as Non-OECD Europe/Central Asia and the Middle East.

1642

4326

23

109156

48

1621

819

9

27

4526

15

1513

29

Unit：BCM

LNG

Pipeline

Japan/Korea/Taiwan


North America

MiddleEast

LatinAmerica

Africa

OECD Europe

China

ASEAN

Oceania

SouthAsia


Major natural gas trade flows (Reference Scenario, 2040)

• North America becomes one of the main LNG suppliers to Asia and OECD Europe. • China and South Asia moreover increase imports from traditional producers such as Non-OECD

Europe/Central Asia and the Middle East.

1955

314832

25

148178

58

1931

1624

14

6639

18

17

17

19

43

Unit：BCM

LNGPipeline

Japan/Korea/Taiwan


North America

MiddleEast

LatinAmerica

Africa

OECD Europe

China

ASEAN

Oceania

SouthAsia


Major natural gas trade flows (Lower Price Scenario, 2030)

• Increases of natural gas production in Asia and decline of the slowing down of the production in OECD Europe lead regional trade decline.

• While exports of Non-OECD Europe/Central Asia and the Middle East slow down, North America becomes the main LNG suppliers to Asia.

2445

243920

19

9198

42

141215

19

3921

18

12

Unit：BCM

PipelineLNG

Japan/Korea/Taiwan


North America

MiddleEast

LatinAmerica

Africa

OECD Europe

China

ASEAN

Oceania

SouthAsia


Advanced Technologies Scenario assumptions


Advanced Technologies Scenario assumptions

In this scenario, each country further enhances policies on energy security and address climate change. Technology developments and international technology transfers are promoted to further expand the penetration of innovative technologies.

【Demand side technology】 Industry Under sectoral and other approaches, best available technologies on industrial processes (for steelmaking, cement, paper-pulp and oil refining) will be deployed globally

Transport Clean energy vehicles (highly fuel efficient vehicles, hybrid vehicles, plug-in hybrid vehicles, electric vehicles, fuel cell vehicles) will diffuse further.

Buildings Efficient electric appliances (refrigerators, TVs, etc.), highly efficient water-heating systems (heat pumps, etc.), efficient air conditioning systems and efficient lighting will diffuse further, with heat insulation enhanced.

【Supply side technology】 Renewable energy Wind power generation, photovoltaic power generation, CSP (concentrated solar power) generation, biomass-fired power generation and biofuel will penetrate further.

Nuclear Nuclear power plant construction will be accelerated with operating rates improved.

Highly efficient fossil fuel-fired power generation technology Coal-fired power plants (USC, IGCC, IGFC) and natural gas –fired more advanced combined cycle (MACC) plants will penetrate further.

CCS CCS deployment will expand in power generation (new and existing coal-fired and natural gas-fired plants) and industry (steelmaking, cement and other plants that emit massive GHGs).

Introducing and enhancing environmental regulations and national targets Environment tax, emissions trading, RPS, subsidy, FIT, efficiency standards, automobile fuel efficiency standard, low carbon fuel standard, energy efficiency labeling, national targets, etc.

R&D investment expansion, international cooperation on energy efficient technology (steelmaking, cement and other areas), support for establishing energy efficiency standards, etc.

Promoting technology development and international technology cooperation


98%

69%

33%

1%

1%

1%

1%

25%

38%

4%

11%

1%

14%

1% 3%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Ref. Adv.

Tech

96%

59%

20%

2%

1%

1%

2%

31%

40%

7%

12%

1%

20%

1%7%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Ref. Adv.

Tech

2010 2040

Fuel Cell

Vehicle

Electric Vehicle

Plug-in Hybrid

Vehicle

Hybrid Vehicle

Compressed

Gas

ICE(Gasoline,

Diesel)

Vehicle Stock and Sales by Type (World)

Share of clean energy vehicles in

total stocks （2040）

Reference 31 ％

Adv. Tech 67 ％

Share of clean energy vehicles in

annual sales （2040）

Reference 41 ％

Adv. Tech 80 ％

The Share of Vehicle Stocks by Type (World)

The Share of Vehicles’ Annual Sales by Type (World)

96

In the Reference Scenario, in 2040, ICE accounts for 69% of the total stocks and 59% of the annual sales. Clean energy vehicles increase mainly by hybrid vehicles. In the Advanced Technologies Scenario, ICE drops to 33% of the total stocks and 20% of the annual sales. Within clean energy vehicles, in 2040, hybrid (38%), plug-in hybrid (11%), and electric vehicles (14%) are the main stream of the total stocks. Similarly, hybrid (40%), plug-in hybrid (12%), and electric vehicles (20%) are the main stream of the total sales, and fuel cell vehicles are also introduced (7%).


14

19

26

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Reference Adv.Tech.

2010 2040

km/L

35%up

9

13

17

0

4

8

12

16

20

Reference Adv.Tech.

2010 2040

km/L

25%up

Fuel Efficiency of Passenger Vehicles (World)

In 2040, stock-based fuel efficiency of passenger vehicles in the Advanced Technologies Scenario achieves a 25% improvement in comparison with the Reference Scenario due to an increase of next generation vehicles such as plug-in hybrid and electric vehicles.

Fuel Efficiency (New sales basis)

Fuel Efficiency (Stock basis)

97


Energy outlook in Asia and the world through 2050 and

actions against climate change


GDP, population and energy price

• Global GDP grows annually at 2.7% from 2013 to 2050. • World total population expands from 7.1 billions in 2013 to 9.6 billions in 2050. • Crude oil price ($2014 real price) is assumed to increase from $105/bbl in 2013 to $130/bbl in 2050.

2013 2040 2050

GDP ($2010 trillion)

71 (AAGR in 1990-2013: 2.8%)

152 (AAGR in 2013-2040: 2.9%)

192 (AAGR in 2040-2050: 2.4%) (AAGR in 2013-2050: 2.7%)

Population (billion)

7.1 9.1 (+2.0 from 2013)

9.6 (+2.5 from 2013)

GDP per capita ($2010 thousand)

10 17 20

Real oil price ($2014/bbl)

105 (2014)

125 130

Nominal oil price ($/bbl)

105 (2014) 209 265


2013 2040 2050

Historical Reference Advanced Technologies Reference Advanced

Technologies

Nuclear (GW) 386 (2014) 610 868 695 1,044

Thermal efficiency Coal Natural gas

36% 41%

39% 52%

40% 53%

41% 55%

44% 57%

Solar photovoltaic (GW) 137 749 1,381 1,001 2,029

CSP (GW) 3.8 84 221 153 409

Wind (GW) 318 998 1,579 1,311 2,034

Biomass power generation (GW) 70 190 204 228 235

Biofuel (Mtoe) 68 128 213 138 242

Share in annual vehicle sales PHEV EV/FCV

- -

7% 2%

12% 27%

10% 6%

12% 31%

Average fuel efficiency of new vehicle sales (km/L)

14 (2010) 19 26 20 27

Energy and environmental technologies

CSP: Concentrated solar power, PHEV: Plug-in hybrid electric vehicle, EV: Electric vehicle, and FCV: Fuel cell vehicle


Power generation capacity Electricity generated

541

2,064

2,747

4,803

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Reference Reference Adv. Tech.

2013 2040 2050

GW

Geothermal

Ocean

Biomass power

Wind

PV

CSP

1,322

4,215

5,413

8,357

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

Reference Reference Adv. Tech.

2013 2040 2050

TWh

Geothermal

Ocean Biomass power

Wind

PV

CSP

Renewable power generation (world)

• In the Advanced Technologies Scenario, renewable power generation capacity, excluding hydro, expands 6 times as much as that of 2013 by 2050.

• Wind power generation capacity in 2050 exhibits a 6-fold increase compared with that in 2013; 15-fold increase for solar PV, 107-fold increase for CSP, 34-fold for ocean energy, and 3-fold for biomass-fired.



Primary energy consumption (world)

16,396 16,998

7,2058,768

10,057

13,555

18,963 20,708

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

22,000

24,000

1980 1990 2000 2013 2020 2030 2040 2050

Mtoe

Reference

Adv. Tech.

Reductions in 2050

3,710 Mtoe (- 18%)

OECD

Non-OECD ▲ 1.3 Btoe

▲2.4Btoe

▲1.8

Btoe

OECD non-OECD Asia

• World primary energy consumption in 2050 can decrease by 3,710 Mtoe in the Advanced Technologies Scenario compared with that in the Reference Scenario. The consumption by OECD and by non-OECD decrease by 1,300 Mtoe and 2,700 Mtoe, respectively.

• The progress of the reliable measures of energy consumption reduction is highly important to suppress the primary energy consumption especially in Asia, where the potential of the reduction is very high at 1,800 Mtoe.



29% 24% 23%16%

31%29% 28%

28%

21%

25% 26%

23%5%

6% 6%

11%2%

2%2%

3%11%

14%14%

20%

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000


2013 2040 2050

Coal

Oil

NaturalGas

NuclearHydro

OtherRenewables

Mtoe

Non-fossil fuel ratio is 22% in the Reference Scenario and 34% in the Advanced Technologies Scenario in 2050.

Even in 2050 in the Advanced Technologies Scenario, fossil fuel ratio is in the vast majority(67%) of the primary energy consumption of the world.

In both of the Reference and the Advanced Technologies Scenarios, the efficient use of Natural Gas becomes further important in terms of suppression of the primary energy consumption, because its amount and share expand.

Non-fossil fuel ratio

22%

34%

18%

22% Growth rates in 2050

(in comparison with 2013)

Primary Energy Consumption by Source (World) Reference Adv. Tech.


Coal 22% ▲ 31%

Oil 38% 11%Natural Gas 87% 34%

Nuclear 95% 193%

Hydro 43% 46%Other Renewables 90% 116%

Total 53% 25%


Fossil Fuel Consumption

Natural Gas

Coal

Natural Gas

Coal Oil

Natural Gas

Coal

Natural Gas

Coal

Reduction in 2050 (Regional Breakdown) (Coal) (Oil) (Natural Gas)

The highly efficient technologies consuming fossil fuels (such as clean coal technologies) need to be deployed in order to largely decrease the fossil fuel consumption

104

Mtoe Share

USA 332 21%Japan 44 3%Other OECD 373 24%China 155 10%India 44 3%Other Asia 146 9%Other non-OECD 453 29%OECD 749 48%non-OECD 797 52%Developing Asia 344 22%World 1,547 100%

Mtoe Share

USA 144 7%Japan 28 1%Other OECD 256 12%China 919 44%India 456 22%Other Asia 145 7%Other non-OECD 133 6%OECD 428 21%non-OECD 1,653 79%Developing Asia 1,520 73%World 2,080 100%

Mtoe Share

USA 202 18%Japan 28 2%Other OECD 235 21%China 171 15%India 93 8%Other Asia 121 11%Other non-OECD 286 25%OECD 465 41%non-OECD 672 59%Developing Asia 386 34%World 1,136 100%

3,1052,713

3,928

4,5774,793

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

1990 2000 2013 2020 2030 2040 2050

Mtoe

Reference

USA

Japan

Other OECD

China

India

Other Asia

Other non-OECDAdv. Tech

3,665 3,8902,902

4,741

5,436

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

1990 2000 2013 2020 2030 2040 2050

Mtoe

Reference

USA

Japan

Other OECD

China

India

Other Asia

Other non-OECD

Adv. Tech

4,658 4,6874,210

5,496 5,823

3000

4000

5000

6000

1990 2000 2013 2020 2030 2040 2050

Mtoe

Adv. Tech

Reference

USA

Japan

Other OECD

China

India

Other Asia

Other non-OECD


18% 23% 30% 35%45% 47% 49% 51% 53%

28%25%

26%23%

17%16%

14%12%

10%

42%38%

27%24%

19%17%

16%14%

13%

13%14%

17%

18%

18%20%

21%23%

24%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

5019

80

1990

2000

2005

2013

2020

2030

2040

2050

Others

Europe

North America

Asia

Gt-CO2

CO2 emissions by region (world)

2013 32.9 Gt 2050 45.9 Gt (1.4-fold increase)

World

2013 14.9 Gt 2050 24.1Gt (1.6-fold increase)

Asia

• CO2 emissions in the world reach 45.9 Gt in 2050 from 32.9 Gt in 2013. • Asia alone accounts for about 70% of the increase in global CO2 emissions through 2050. The share of

North America and Europe combined decreases from 36% in 2013 to 23% in 2050.

Reference Scenario

9.2

-1.1 -0.2

5.1

Asia North

America

Europe Others

Increase in 2013-2050

71% 39%


CO2 emissions by region (Asia)

28% 22% 17% 13% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4%3% 3% 3% 2%8%5% 5% 5% 5%10% 9% 8% 9% 11% 13% 15%

8%11% 13% 12%

13% 15%18%

22%25%

46%48%

47%56%

63%62%

58%

53%

48%

3.3 4.9

7.0 9.6

14.9 16.9

19.4 22.0

24.1

0

5

10

15

20

25

3019

80

1990

2000

2005

2013

2020

2030

2040

2050

China

India

ASEAN

Other AsiaKorea

Japan

Gt-CO2

2013 9.4 Gt ↓ 2050 11.6 Gt (1.2-fold increase)

2013 1.9 Gt ↓ 2050 6.1 Gt (3.2-fold increase)

China

India

-0.3 0.0

2.1

4.3

2.5

0.7

Japan Korea China India ASEAN Other Asia

Increase in 2013 to 2050

• CO2 emissions in Asia steadily increase driven by coal consumption. The combined share of China and India in the Asian total remains constant throughout the projection period at almost 75%.

• The increases in Asia account for about 70% of the world CO2 emission growth through 2050. The development of clean coal technology plays a large role to reduce CO2 emissions in Asia.

Reference Scenario


33.5 32.6

28.2

23.3 21.2 23.5

27.4

32.9

35.7

39.5

42.7

45.9

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1990 20002005 2013 2020 2030 2040 2050

GtCO2

CO2 Emission Reduction by Region (World)

In 2050, Non-OECD’s CO2 emission reduction (between the Reference Scenario and the Advanced Technologies Scenario) reaches 16.9 Gt, more than three times that of OECD at 5.6 Gt.

Technology transfer and swift deployment of advanced technology in Asia is indispensable in order to address climate change issues.

16.9 Gt (75% of total)

5.6 Gt (25% of total)

Total 22.6 Gt (49% reduce)


107

Tech. Adv.+CCS

Reference

Non-OECD

OECD


Asia has a huge CO2 reduction potential; CO2 emission reduction reaches 11.8 Gt in Non-OECD Asia and 6.8 Gt in China.

CO2 Reduction in 2050

CO2 Emission Reduction by Region (World) Reference [Adv. Tech.]+CCS

21.2

23.5

27.4

32.9

35.7

39.5

42.7

45.9

33.5 32.6

28.2

23.3

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

1990 20002005 2013 2020 2030 2040 2050

Gt-CO2

USA

Japan

Other OECD countriesChina

India

Other Asian countriesOther non-OECD countriesReference

Advanced Technology+CCS

Gt-CO2 Share

USA 2.1 10%Japan 0.7 3%Other OECD 2.7 12%China 6.8 30%India 3.7 17%Other Asian countries 1.3 6%Other non-OECD 5.2 23%OECD 5.5 25%Non-OECD 17.0 75%　Non-OECD Asia 11.8 53%World total 22.6 100%


14.916.0 16.4 16.2 15.6

4.9

7.0

9.6

16.9

19.4

22.0

24.1

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1990 2000 2005 2013 2020 2030 2040 2050

GtCO2

China

India

Other Asia

ASEAN

Adv.Tech.

Reference

CO2 Emission Reduction by Region (Asia)

In the Advanced Technologies Scenario, CO2 emissions in Asia is reduced by 8.6 Gt in 2050. China and India have great potential to reduce CO2 emissions. China’s CO2 emission reduction

accounts for 53% of Asia’s reduction in 2050. India and ASEAN combined account for around 40% of Asia’s reduction in 2050.

India 2.2 Gt

(26% of total)

China 4.5 Gt

(53% of total)

Total 8.6Gt (36% reduction)

ASEAN 0.9 Gt

(11% of total)


109

Excludes CCS


4.9

7.0

16.9

19.4

22.0

24.1

9.6

14.916.0 16.4 16.2 15.6

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1990 2000 2005 2013 2020 2030 2040 2050

GtCO2

Energy saving

Biofuel

Wind, Solar, etc

Nuclear

Fuel switching

Reference

Adv.Tech.

CO2 Emission Reduction by Technology (Asia)

Aggressive development and deployment of advanced technologies in Asia considerably reduce CO2 emissions. Energy saving accounts for 53% of Asia’s CO2 reduction in 2050.

Energy Saving

53%

Energy Switching

47%


110

Total 8.6Gt 36% reduction

Excludes CCS

2050 GtCO2 ShareEnergy Saving 4.5 53%Biofuel 0.2 3%Wind, solar etc. 0.9 10%Nuclear 1.9 23%Fuel Switching 1.0 12%計 8.6 100%


12.8

9.1

7.2

5.7

11.1

12.412.0 11.8

11.1 10.6

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1990 20002005 2013 2020 2030 2040 2050

Energy saving

Biofuel

Wind, Solar, etc

Nuclear

Fuel switching

Adv.Tech.

Reference

GtCO2

22.2 22.7 22.8

9.5 10.3

13.5

19.9

26.1

29.7

33.3

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1990 20002005 2013 2020 2030 2040 2050

Energy saving

Biofuel

Wind, Solar, etc

Nuclear

Fuel switching

Adv.Tech.

Reference

GtCO2

CO2 Emission Reduction by Technology (OECD and Non-OECD)

OECD Non-OECD

Various technologies are required to reduce CO2 emissions. In OECD, energy saving is responsible for the largest share at 46% (or 2.3 Gt). It is followed by renewable energy at 30% (or 1.5 Gt), nuclear at 13% (or 0.6 Gt), and fuel switching at 8% (or 0.4 Gt).

In Non-OECD countries, energy saving is responsible for more than half of the 5.9 Gt reduction. Supportive measures concerning technology transfer and the establishment of efficiency standards are important to realize those CO2 emission reduction while further enhancing energy security.

Total -10.5Gt

Reference [Adv. Tech.]+CCS

111

Total -4.9Gt

Excludes CCS

GtCO2 Share

Energy saving 2.3 46%

Biofuel 0.1 2%Wind, Solar, etc 1.5 30%Nuclear 0.6 13%Fuel switching 0.4 8%

Total 4.9 100%

GtCO2 Share

Energy saving 5.9 56%

Biofuel 0.2 2%Wind, Solar, etc 1.6 15%Nuclear 1.7 16%Fuel switching 1.1 11%

Total 10.5 100%


9.9

8.6

6.6

2.3 3.3

5.4

9.4 10.5

11.2 11.6

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1990 2000 2005 2013 2020 2030 2040

千

Energy Saving (38%)

Biofuel (2%)

Wind, Solar,etc (4%)

Nuclear(12%)

Fuel Switching (7%)

CCS(37%)

Gt-CO2

Reference

Adv. Tech.

CO2 Emissions in China

In the Reference Scenario, CO2 emissions increase by 2.2Gt (up 23%) between 2013 to 2040. In the Advanced Technologies Scenario, CO2 emissions are 5.0 Gt (down 43%) lower than the

Reference Scenario in 2040. CO2 emissions peak before 2020 due to energy saving and fuel switching to non-fossil fuels.

2040 - 5.0 Gｔ-CO2

(-43％)

CCS 37%

Energy saving 38%

Fuel Switching 25%


112

Gt-CO2 Share

Energy Saving 1.91 38%

Biofuel 0.10 2%Wind, Solar,etc 0.20 4%Nuclear 0.60 12%Fuel Switching 0.33 7%CCS 1.85 37%

total 4.98 100%


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1990

2000

2005

2013

2020

2030

2040

81

187

100

58

26

19

(2005年=100)

5531

37

42％ decrease from 2005 level

Reference

Adv. Tech.

National Target : 40 to 45% reduction by 2020 60to 65% reduction by 2030

Chinese government decided to improve CO2 intensity (calculated as CO2 emissions per GDP) by 40%-45% by 2020, by 60%-65% by 2030 from the 2005 level.

In the Reference Scenario, the projected CO2 emissions intensity (per GDP) is 42% lower in 2020, 63% lower in 2030 than the 2005 level. And the reduction is 45% in 2020 and 69% in 2030 in the Advanced Technologies Scenario. The official target will be achieved, when the changes of the industry structure and the introduction of advanced technologies on energy and environment are steadily implemented.

CO2 Emissions per GDP in China

C = (C/E) * (E/Y) * Y

ΔC = Δ(C/E) + Δ(E/Y) + ΔY

Decarbonization / Energy-Saving / Economic-Growth

Decomposition Analysis of CO2 Emissions



113



CO2 Emission △C

Carbon Intensity△(C/E)

Energy Saving△(E/Y)

EconomyGrowth

△Y

5.7% 0.8% -4.8% 10.2%

Reference 4.5% -0.1% -3.5%

Adv. Tech. 4.1% -0.2% -3.7%

Reference 0.7% -0.4% -4.1%

Adv. Tech. -0.4% -0.9% -4.7%

8.4%

2020-2030 5.4%

1990-2005

2005-2020


CO2 Emission Reduction in India

In the Reference Scenario, CO2 emissions increase by 2.9 Gt (a 2.5 fold-increase) in 2040 from 2013. In the Advanced Technologies Scenario, CO2 emissions are 1.8 (37%)lower from the Reference Scenario.

CCS 22%

Energy Saving

35%

Fuel Switching

43%


114

Gt-CO2 ShareEnergy Saving 0.6 35%Bio-fuel 0.0 2%PV,Wind,etc 0.2 12%Nuclear 0.3 19%Fuel Swithching 0.2 10%CCS 0.4 22%

Total 1.8 100%

3.0

0.5 0.9

1.1

1.9

4.8

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

1990 2000 2005 2013 2020 2030 2040

Energy Savings (35%)

Bio-fuel (2%)PV,Wind (12%)Nuclear (19%)Fuel Switching (10%)CCS(22%)

Gt-CO2

Reference

Adv.Tech

2040 - 1.8 Gｔ-CO2

(- 37％)


CO2 Emissions per GDP in India

Decomposition Analysis of CO2 Emissions

C = (C/E) * (E/Y) * Y

ΔC = Δ(C/E) + Δ(E/Y) + ΔY Decarbonization / Energy-Saving/ Economic-Growth

India announced to improve its CO2 intensity (calculated as CO2 emissions per GDP) by 33 to 35% from 2005 level by 2030.

The improvement in CO2 emissions per GDP in 2030 exceeds those targets reaching 45% in the Reference Scenario and 55% in the Advanced Technologies Scenario.


115


National Target : 20 to 25% reduction by 2020 33 to 35% reduction by 2030

45

31

96

75

5543

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1990

2000

2005

2013

2020

2030

2040

117

100

(2005=100)

73



Reference Adv.Tech

CO2Emissions△C 4.8% 5.5% 5.3%Carbon intensity　△(C/E) 1.3% 1.0% 0.9%Energy saving　△(E/Y) -2.3% -2.9% -2.9%Economic growth　△Y 6.0% 7.5%

1990-2005

2005-2020



Reference

Adv.Tech.


Contact :[email protected]

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