Reefs at Risk Revisited

Lauretta BurkeWorld Resources Institute

National Press ClubFebruary 23, 2011

Reefs at Risk Revisited

Photo credit: Michael Emerson

Major Partners

• Atlantic and Gulf Rapid Reef Assessment (AGRRA)• Coastal Oceans Research and Development in the Indian Ocean

(CORDIO)• Conservation International (CI)• Coral Reef Alliance (CORAL)• Healthy Reefs for Healthy People• Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)• International Society for Reef Studies (ISRS)• International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN)• National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis (NCEAS)• Oceana• Planetary Coral Reef Foundation• Project AWARE Foundation• Reef Check• Reef Environmental Education Foundation (REEF)• SeaWeb• Secretariat of the Pacific Community (SPC)• Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP)• U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)• U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)• University of South Florida (USF)• University of the South Pacific (USP)• Wildlife Conservation Society (WCS)• World Wildlife Fund (WWF)

• The Chino Cienega Foundation• The David and Lucile Packard Foundation• The Henry Foundation• International Coral Reef Initiative• The Marisla Foundation• National Fish and Wildlife Foundation• Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs• The Ocean Foundation• Roy Disney Family Foundation• The Tiffany & Co. Foundation• U.S. Department of the Interior• U.S. Department of State• U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric

Administration (NOAA)

Contributing Institutions Financial Support

• Emily Cooper• Benjamin Kushner• Elizabeth Selig• Benjamin Starkhouse• Kristian Teleki• Richard Waite• Clive Wilkinson• Terri Young

Contributing Authors• Lauretta Burke• Kathleen Reytar• Mark Spalding• Allison Perry

Lead Authors

Photo credit: Lauretta Burke

What is new / important?

1998

2011


Data Improvements:

• Reef layer is 64x• Inclusion of global threats• Comprehensive, high

resolution analysis

1998

2011


Value:

• Reef Dependence• Vulnerability to reef

degradation

1998

2011


Global Threat Analysis:

• Today: 75% threatened• 2030: 90% threatened• 2050: All reefs at risk

1998

2011


Reasons for Hope:

• Resilience• Stories of recovery • Recommendations for action

1998

2011

Photo credit: Coral Reef Adventure/MacGillivray Freeman Films

Photo credit: Enric Sala

275 million people are highly reef-dependent

Southeast Asia

Indian Ocean

Atlantic

Middle East

Pacific

Australia

- 50,000,000 100,000,000 150,000,000

Reef-associated population (within 10 km of coast and 30 km of reef)

Photo Credit: Crispin Zeeman

Photo credit: Konstantin Tkachenko

Photo credit: Klaus Stiefel/Flikr

Photo credit: Steve Lindfield

Photo credit: Krishna Desai

Local Threats

• Coastal development• Sediment and pollution• Marine pollution and

damage• Overfishing • Destructive fishing

Global Threats

• Warming seas• Ocean acidification


Threat: Coastal Development

Photo credit: Wolcott Henry

Threat: Sediment and pollution

Photo credit: Owen Day

Threat: Marine pollution and damage


Photo credit: Chad King/NMS

Threat: Overfishing


Threat: Destructive Fishing

Photo credit: Wolcott HenryPhoto credit: Lynn Funkhauser

Threat: Warming Seas

Photo credit: Mark Spalding

Key Findings: Local Threats

Overfi

shing

and

Destru

ctive

Fish

ing

Wat

ersh

ed-b

ased

Pollutio

n

Coastal D

evelop

men

t

Mar

ine-

base

d Po

llutio

n an

d Dam

age

Inte

grat

ed Loc

al T

hrea

t0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Very High High Med Low

More than 60% of reefs are threatened by local activities

Integrated local threats to coral reefs

Low Medium High Very High

Atlantic Australia Indian Ocean

Middle East Pacific Southeast Asia

Global -

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

Very High High Medium Low

Reef

Are

a (

sq k

m)

Integrated local threat by region (by reef area)

Change in local threat level 1998 - 2007

• Increase in threat level

• No change in threat level

Key Findings: Global Threats(current)

Trends in coral bleaching, 1980–2010

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Severity Unknown

Severe

Moderate

Mild

Year

Num

ber

of

countr

ies r

eport

ing c

ora

l ble

achin

g

Source: ReefBase, 2010. Note: Data for 2010 are incomplete.

1 20%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Very High High Med Low

Integrated Local Threat

Local and Global

Local only

75% of reefs are threatened by local and global pressures today

Key Findings: Global Threats(future)

Projections of thermal stress (2030 and 2050)

Source: Simon Donner , 2009.

2030s

2050s

Projections of ocean acidification (2030 and 2050)

Source: Cao and Caldeira, 2008.

450 ppm CO2 (2030)

500 ppm CO2 (2050)

Integrated threat from local activities: today

Low Medium High Very High

Integrated local and global threat: 2030

Low Medium High CriticalVery High

Integrated local and global threat: 2050

Low Medium High CriticalVery High

Reefs in MPAs rated as effective

6%

Reefs in MPAs rated as partially effective

13%

Reefs in MPAs rated as not effective

4%

Reefs in MPAs under an unknown level of man-

agement 4%

Reefs outside of MPAs, 73%

The global area of coral reefs is 250,000 sq km (which represents 100% on this chart), of which 67,350 sq km (27%) is inside MPAs.

MPAs / Management Effectiveness

What is at stake?

Photo credit: PATH Foundation Photo credit: Amos Nachoum

Social and economic dependence on coral reefs

Social and economic vulnerability to reef degradation

Reasons for hope


Actions needed:

• Reduce local pressures

• Manage for climate change

• Tackle GHG emissions

Photo credit: GBRMPA

www.wri.org/reefs


“One way to open your eyes is to ask yourself, ‘What if I had never seen this before? What if I knew I would never see it again?’” – Rachel Carson

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