Reed fall econ webcast oct 17, 2013 markstein_part 2
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Transcript of Reed fall econ webcast oct 17, 2013 markstein_part 2
![Page 1: Reed fall econ webcast oct 17, 2013 markstein_part 2](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051412/54bca6534a7959822c8b460f/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
![Page 2: Reed fall econ webcast oct 17, 2013 markstein_part 2](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051412/54bca6534a7959822c8b460f/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Commercial construction
turned around in 2012
and is expected to
continue to improve
![Page 3: Reed fall econ webcast oct 17, 2013 markstein_part 2](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051412/54bca6534a7959822c8b460f/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Construction spending and its components
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Residential Nonresidential Building Heavy Construction
$ Billions
History Forecast
Source: History – U.S. Census Bureau; Forecast – Reed Construction Data
![Page 4: Reed fall econ webcast oct 17, 2013 markstein_part 2](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051412/54bca6534a7959822c8b460f/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Reed total starts (3-month moving average year-over-year)
Source: Reed Construction Data
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
3-Month Moving Average, Year-over-Year % Change
![Page 5: Reed fall econ webcast oct 17, 2013 markstein_part 2](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051412/54bca6534a7959822c8b460f/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Total construction spending
Source: History – U.S. Census Bureau; Forecast – Reed Construction Data
700
750
800
850
900
950
1,000
1,050
1,100
1,150
1,200
1,250
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Billion $, SAAR
![Page 6: Reed fall econ webcast oct 17, 2013 markstein_part 2](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051412/54bca6534a7959822c8b460f/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Residential
construction
continues to
improve
![Page 7: Reed fall econ webcast oct 17, 2013 markstein_part 2](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051412/54bca6534a7959822c8b460f/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Residential construction spending components
Source: History – U.S. Census Bureau; Forecast – Reed Construction Data
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Improvements Single-family Multifamily
$ Billions
History Forecast
![Page 8: Reed fall econ webcast oct 17, 2013 markstein_part 2](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051412/54bca6534a7959822c8b460f/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Reed residential starts (3-month moving average year-over-year)
Source: Reed Construction Data
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
503-Month Moving Average, Year-over-Year % Change
![Page 9: Reed fall econ webcast oct 17, 2013 markstein_part 2](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051412/54bca6534a7959822c8b460f/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
New residential construction spending
Source: History – U.S. Census Bureau; Forecast – Reed Construction Data
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Billion $, SAAR
![Page 10: Reed fall econ webcast oct 17, 2013 markstein_part 2](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051412/54bca6534a7959822c8b460f/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Residential construction spending components
Source: History – U.S. Census Bureau; Forecast – Reed Construction Data
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Single-Family Multifamily Improvements
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
2012 2013 2014 2015
$ Billions
![Page 11: Reed fall econ webcast oct 17, 2013 markstein_part 2](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051412/54bca6534a7959822c8b460f/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Nonresidential building
construction has struggled
lately, but is expected to
improve over the remainder
of this year and strengthen
further in 2014 and 2015
![Page 12: Reed fall econ webcast oct 17, 2013 markstein_part 2](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051412/54bca6534a7959822c8b460f/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Reed nonresidential building starts (3-month moving average year-over-year)
Source: Reed Construction Data
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
353-Month Moving Average, Year-over-Year % Change
![Page 13: Reed fall econ webcast oct 17, 2013 markstein_part 2](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051412/54bca6534a7959822c8b460f/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Nonresidential construction spending
Source: History – U.S. Census Bureau; Forecast – Reed Construction Data
200
225
250
275
300
325
350
375
400
425
450
475
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Billion $, SAAR
![Page 14: Reed fall econ webcast oct 17, 2013 markstein_part 2](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051412/54bca6534a7959822c8b460f/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Nonresidential spending components
Source: History – U.S. Census Bureau; Forecast – Reed Construction Data
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Hotel/Lodging Office Commerical
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
2012 2013 2014 2015
$ Billions
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Nonresidential spending components
Source: History – U.S. Census Bureau; Forecast – Reed Construction Data
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
Religious Healthcare Education
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
2012 2013 2014 2015
$ Billions
![Page 16: Reed fall econ webcast oct 17, 2013 markstein_part 2](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051412/54bca6534a7959822c8b460f/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Nonresidential spending components
Source: History – U.S. Census Bureau; Forecast – Reed Construction Data
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Public safety Amusement and recreation Manufacturing
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
2012 2013 2014 2015
$ Billions
![Page 17: Reed fall econ webcast oct 17, 2013 markstein_part 2](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051412/54bca6534a7959822c8b460f/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Heavy engineering
(non-building)
construction held
up best over the
last few years
![Page 18: Reed fall econ webcast oct 17, 2013 markstein_part 2](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051412/54bca6534a7959822c8b460f/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Despite considerable
challenges, the outlook
for heavy engineering
construction is fairly
positive
![Page 19: Reed fall econ webcast oct 17, 2013 markstein_part 2](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051412/54bca6534a7959822c8b460f/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Reed heavy engineering starts (3-month moving average year-over-year)
Source: Reed Construction Data
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
3-Month Moving Average, Year-over-Year % Change
![Page 20: Reed fall econ webcast oct 17, 2013 markstein_part 2](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051412/54bca6534a7959822c8b460f/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Heavy engineering construction spending
Source: History – U.S. Census Bureau; Forecast – Reed Construction Data
150
175
200
225
250
275
300
325
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Billion $, SAAR
![Page 21: Reed fall econ webcast oct 17, 2013 markstein_part 2](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051412/54bca6534a7959822c8b460f/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Heavy engineering spending components
Source: History – U.S. Census Bureau; Forecast – Reed Construction Data
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
Transportation Communication Power
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
2012 2013 2014 2015
$ Billions
![Page 22: Reed fall econ webcast oct 17, 2013 markstein_part 2](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051412/54bca6534a7959822c8b460f/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Heavy engineering spending components
Source: History – U.S. Census Bureau; Forecast – Reed Construction Data
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
Highway Water and Sewer Conservation
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
2012 2013 2014 2015
$ Billions
![Page 23: Reed fall econ webcast oct 17, 2013 markstein_part 2](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051412/54bca6534a7959822c8b460f/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Regional
economic
performance
![Page 24: Reed fall econ webcast oct 17, 2013 markstein_part 2](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051412/54bca6534a7959822c8b460f/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Economic performance of the states
Source: Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank
![Page 25: Reed fall econ webcast oct 17, 2013 markstein_part 2](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051412/54bca6534a7959822c8b460f/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Economic performance of the states
Source: Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank
![Page 26: Reed fall econ webcast oct 17, 2013 markstein_part 2](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051412/54bca6534a7959822c8b460f/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Connect with Reed Construction Data
Twitter twitter.com/Bmarkstein
Twitter twitter.com/ReedConstrData
Facebook www.facebook.com/Reed-Construction-Data
LinkedIn www.linkedin.com/company/reed-construction-data
Web www.reedconstructiondata.com
![Page 27: Reed fall econ webcast oct 17, 2013 markstein_part 2](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051412/54bca6534a7959822c8b460f/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Contact information and links
Bernard M. Markstein
Office: 301-588-5190
Mobile: 404-952-3381
U.S. Forecast and Commentary: http://www.reedconstructiondata.com/market-
intelligence/articles/
Blog: http://www.reedconstructiondata.com/market-
intelligence/bernie-markstein/