Redefining Investment in Listed Property · Global Listed Real Estate Sectors Not All Sectors are...

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Redefining Investment in Listed Property

Transcript of Redefining Investment in Listed Property · Global Listed Real Estate Sectors Not All Sectors are...

Page 1: Redefining Investment in Listed Property · Global Listed Real Estate Sectors Not All Sectors are Created Equal 3. Source: FTSE EPRA Nareit, J P Morgan. US REIT Sector Returns. A

Redefining Investment in Listed Property

Page 2: Redefining Investment in Listed Property · Global Listed Real Estate Sectors Not All Sectors are Created Equal 3. Source: FTSE EPRA Nareit, J P Morgan. US REIT Sector Returns. A

Global Listed Real EstateReminder that Real Estate Isn’t Just Offices and Shopping Centres

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There are 25 Sectors and Sub-sectors Each Behaving Differently During Different Parts of the Property Cycle

Industrial

• Manufacturing• Logistics

Retail

• Malls• Shopping

Centres• Strip Centres• Triple Net

Office

• Traditional• Co-working

Residential

• Single Family• Multi Family• Manufactured• Student

Diversified

• Diversified Property Portfolio

Lodging

• Resorts and Hotels

Healthcare

• Hospitals• MOBs• Senior Housing• Skilled Nursing• Life Science

Labs

SelfStorage

Specialised

• Towers• Fibre• Datacentres

Resources

• Timber• Farmland

Page 3: Redefining Investment in Listed Property · Global Listed Real Estate Sectors Not All Sectors are Created Equal 3. Source: FTSE EPRA Nareit, J P Morgan. US REIT Sector Returns. A

Global Listed Real Estate SectorsNot All Sectors are Created Equal

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Source: FTSE EPRA Nareit, J P Morgan

US REIT Sector Returns

Page 4: Redefining Investment in Listed Property · Global Listed Real Estate Sectors Not All Sectors are Created Equal 3. Source: FTSE EPRA Nareit, J P Morgan. US REIT Sector Returns. A

A Tale of Two Cities SectorsIt was the best of times (Industrial), it was the worst of times (Retail)

4Source: Datastream, Reitway Analysis

Year to Date USDTotal Return YTD 2020-09-30

Retail Index -40.9%Industrial Index 14.2%Specialised Index 21.3%Office Index -28.1%Diversified Index -27.2%Residential Index -19.3%

Peak USDTotal Return 2020-01-01 to 2020-02-20Retail Index -2.6%Industrial Index 10.6%Specialised Index 12.5%Office Index 4.7%Diversified Index 2.0%Residential Index 9.1%

Peak to Trough USDTotal Return 2020-02-20 to 2020-03-23Retail Index -50.5%Industrial Index -35.9%Specialised Index -26.0%Office Index -43.1%Diversified Index -51.8%Residential Index -43.0%

Trough to Date USDTotal Return 2020-03-23 to 2020-09-30Retail Index 22.6%Industrial Index 62.1%Specialised Index 45.7%Office Index 20.8%Diversified Index 48.1%Residential Index 30.1%

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Retail Index Industrial Index

-40.9%

14.2%

Page 5: Redefining Investment in Listed Property · Global Listed Real Estate Sectors Not All Sectors are Created Equal 3. Source: FTSE EPRA Nareit, J P Morgan. US REIT Sector Returns. A

Sector AllocationPerfect Retail Stock Selection Would Still Not Save You in 2020

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RetailTop 5 Performers USD

Year to Date Total Return 2020-09-30

Taubman Centers 8.58%

Agree Realty Corp. -6.74%

Choice Properties -6.94%

ÆON REIT -11.84%

Realty Income Corp. -14.58%

RetailBottom 5 Performers USD

Year to Date Total Return 2020-09-30

Intu Properties plc Delisted

Hammerson plc -88.71%

Hyprop Investments -75.49%

Unibail-Rodamco -74.59%

Macerich -71.56%

IndustrialTop 5 Performers USD

Year to Date Total Return 2020-09-30

Innovative Industrial 69.14%

Warehouses de Pauw 43.17%

Goodman Group 38.88%

Nippon Prologis REIT 34.30%

GLP J-REIT 28.52%

IndustrialBottom 5 Performers USD

Year to Date Total Return 2020-09-30

PS Business Parks Inc. -23.98%

Dream Industrial REIT -12.38%

Tritax EuroBox plc -6.79%

LondonMetric plc -5.60%

First Industrial Realty -2.17%

Source: Datastream, Reitway Analysis

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Page 6: Redefining Investment in Listed Property · Global Listed Real Estate Sectors Not All Sectors are Created Equal 3. Source: FTSE EPRA Nareit, J P Morgan. US REIT Sector Returns. A

The Retail “Apocalypse”The Apocalypse Has Been a Reality Since 2010

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“Dead shopping malls rise like mountains beyond mountains” Sprawl II, Arcade Fire, 2010

Page 7: Redefining Investment in Listed Property · Global Listed Real Estate Sectors Not All Sectors are Created Equal 3. Source: FTSE EPRA Nareit, J P Morgan. US REIT Sector Returns. A

The Retail “Apocalypse”USA and UK Retail Store Openings and Closings 2012 to 2019

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USA Store Openings and Closings (in ‘000 Units) UK Store Openings and Closings (in ‘000 Units)

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics Source: Local Data Company

Page 8: Redefining Investment in Listed Property · Global Listed Real Estate Sectors Not All Sectors are Created Equal 3. Source: FTSE EPRA Nareit, J P Morgan. US REIT Sector Returns. A

The Retail “Apocalypse”Retail Nightmare of 2020 – Major Bankruptcies and Store Closures

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Source: CB Insights, Cowen, Reitway Analysis

24 hour fitness Celine Group Holding G Star Raw Johnsons' Shoes Muji UK T J Hughes OutletsAdvantage Rent a Car Centric Brands Gadget Shop Kath Kidston Muji USA T M LewinAldo International Century 21 GameStop Kikki.K Neimann Marcus Tailored BrandsAmerican Eagle Chico's Gap Kirkland's Neiman's Last Call Ten Thousand VillagesAntler Children’s Place GNC Kroger Noni B TeslaArt Van Furniture Chiquito's Go Outdoors L Brands Nordstrom The Athlete's FootAscena Retail Group Coldwater Creek Gold's Gym L K Bennet Nordstrom-owned Jeffrey Things EngravedAshbury Furniture Curious Planet Guess La Senza Norville Group TigerlilyAutonomy Clothing Dawson's Music Gymboree Laura Ashley NPC Peter JonesBeales Dean & Deluca H and M Le Pain Quotidien Oak Furnitureland Pier 1 ImportsBed, Bath and Beyond Debenhams Hallmark Lee Longlands Oasis and Warehouse Poundstretcher PropBench Diane von Furstenberg Harris Scarfe Links of London Oddbins PradaBenson Beds Dion Wired Harry & David Lombok Oliver Sweeney Trading PVH -Heritage BrandsBentley Luggage DW Sport Harveys Furniture Lord & Taylor Opening Ceremony QuizBertram Books Earth Fare Hawkins Bazaar Louis Vuitton Roots USA Rent the RunwayBlue Stem EB Games Hearing and Mobility Lowe's Rona RTW Retailwinds Travis Perkins plcBonmarché Edgars Hertz Lucky Brand SFP Franchise Corp. Trunk ClubBose Ena Shaw Home Outfitters Lucky's Market Signet Jewellers Tuesday MorningBouclair Estee Lauder Houseology Lulu Guinness Simply Scuba Ulta BeautyBrighthouse Express J C Penny M&Co Sleep Number Under ArmourBrooks Brothers Fairway J Crew Macy’s Soak ValentinoC and J Clark Retail Fairway Grocery J Crew UK Masscash Soletrader Victoria's SecretCaleres Feather & Black J. Hillburn McWilliam's Wines SpaceNK WalgreensCapri Holdings Foot Locker J.C. Penney Michael Hill Spicers G.H. BassCardinal Forever 21 J.Jill Microsoft Stage ZaraCarluccio's Fossil Jack Willis Ltd. Modell’s Sporting Goods Stein Mart ZellersCarphone Warehouse Frankie and Benny's Jeanswest Monsoon Accessorize Sur la Table PapyrusCarter's Frye John Varvatos Motherhood Sweaty Betty Party City

Page 9: Redefining Investment in Listed Property · Global Listed Real Estate Sectors Not All Sectors are Created Equal 3. Source: FTSE EPRA Nareit, J P Morgan. US REIT Sector Returns. A

Sector RotationRetail and Hospitality Have Had an Annus Horribilis

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Source: Data show unlevered NCREIF Property Index returns filtered for only Open-end Diversified Core Equity (ODCE) managers.

Source: CBRE-Econometric Advisors, Q2 2020. Note: retail rent growth only reflects Neighbourhood, Community and Strip Centres (excludes Malls, Lifestyle and Power Centres).

US Real Estate Returns Across Property Types[Rolling four-quarter total return %]

Property Sector Rental Growth[Year over year change in quarters ended %]

Page 10: Redefining Investment in Listed Property · Global Listed Real Estate Sectors Not All Sectors are Created Equal 3. Source: FTSE EPRA Nareit, J P Morgan. US REIT Sector Returns. A

Sector RotationIndustrial has Now Overtaken Retail in Terms of Total Investment

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Share of Total Investment

Source: Savills, Real Capital Analytics

• Industrial investment volumes overtook retail for the first time in 2019, it is now the third most-invested asset class after office and residential.

• In the first half of 2020 investment in the Industrial sector accounted for 20% of all global investment volumes.

• In 2019 $196 billion USD was invested in the sector, almost double the share of 10 years ago.

Page 11: Redefining Investment in Listed Property · Global Listed Real Estate Sectors Not All Sectors are Created Equal 3. Source: FTSE EPRA Nareit, J P Morgan. US REIT Sector Returns. A

eCommerce PenetrationMajority of Global Market Still has Large Growth Potential

Source: PPRO Payments and eCommerce Reports 2019-2020 , 2020-03

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eCommerce Sales GrowthSales Growth is Strong Especially in the Developing World

Source: eMarketer

Top 10 Countries Ranked by Retail eCommerce Growth [2019 % change]

Retail eCommerce Growth by Region[2019 % change]

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18,1%

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18,8%

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31,0%

31,9%

35,0%

Worldwide

South Korea

Russia

Argentina

Indonesia

Canada

Malaysia

China

Philippines

India

Mexico

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Western Europe

North America

C and E Europe

Latin America

ME and Africa

Asia-Pacific

Page 13: Redefining Investment in Listed Property · Global Listed Real Estate Sectors Not All Sectors are Created Equal 3. Source: FTSE EPRA Nareit, J P Morgan. US REIT Sector Returns. A

Industrial Juggernaut Still Has Room to RunJLL Projects Growth of over 93 Million m2 of Industrial by 2025

Source: JLL

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Historical and Projected eCommerce Sales (USD Bn)

Page 14: Redefining Investment in Listed Property · Global Listed Real Estate Sectors Not All Sectors are Created Equal 3. Source: FTSE EPRA Nareit, J P Morgan. US REIT Sector Returns. A

• We have witnessed a Retail Apocalypse, beginning in 2010, driven by departmentstores and other weak retailers closing, and accelerated by COVID-19 in 2020.

• Decline is certainly not over, and while Retail will not disappear the reality is thatthere are still likely several failures waiting to occur.

• There are still too many malls in certain countries, the Middle market has been hollowed out, growth is primarily at the Discount and Premium ends of the market.

• Online stores opening physical; click and collect; repurposing etc will offset a smallpercentage of space closed by traditional retailers going out of business or rationalising.

• More retail pain likely to come, and recapitalisations are not over yet.• eCommerce sales growth remains robust, there is a lot of growth potential still.• Logistics will remain resilient, but tenants are better utilising m3 (this will impact demand)

and the eventual Supply / Demand equilibrium is approaching.• Other factors are rising land costs in the quest for last mile distribution centre properties.• Industrial rental growth in 2021 may decelerate but will remain strong versus other sectors.

Quo Vadis?

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Page 15: Redefining Investment in Listed Property · Global Listed Real Estate Sectors Not All Sectors are Created Equal 3. Source: FTSE EPRA Nareit, J P Morgan. US REIT Sector Returns. A

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Redefining Investment in Listed Property

Page 16: Redefining Investment in Listed Property · Global Listed Real Estate Sectors Not All Sectors are Created Equal 3. Source: FTSE EPRA Nareit, J P Morgan. US REIT Sector Returns. A

• Boutique Collective Investments (RF) (Pty) Ltd (“BCI”) is a registered Manager of the Boutique Collective Investments Scheme, approved in terms of the Collective InvestmentsSchemes Control Act, No 45 of 2002 and is a full member of the Association for Savings and Investment SA.

• Collective Investment Schemes in securities are generally medium to long term investments. The value of participatory interests may go up or down and past performance is notnecessarily an indication of future performance. The Manager does not guarantee the capital or the return of a portfolio. Collective Investments are traded at ruling prices and canengage in borrowing and scrip lending. A schedule of fees, charges and maximum commissions is available on request. BCI reserves the right to close the portfolio to new investors andreopen certain portfolios from time to time in order to manage them more efficiently. Additional information, including application forms, annual or quarterly reports can be obtainedfrom BCI, free of charge.

• Performance figures quoted for the portfolio are from Morningstar, as at the date of this document for a lump sum investment, using NAV-NAV with income reinvested and do not takeany upfront manager’s charge into account. Income distributions are declared on the ex-dividend date. Actual investment performance will differ based on the initial fees chargeapplicable, the actual investment date, the date of reinvestment and dividend withholding tax. Past performance referred to in this presentation is not necessarily indicative of futureperformance.

• Investments in foreign securities may include additional risks such as potential constraints on liquidity and repatriation of funds, macroeconomic risk, political risk, foreign exchange risk,tax risk, settlement risk as well as potential limitations on the availability of market information.

• Boutique Collective Investments (RF) Pty Ltd retains full legal responsibility for the third party named portfolio.

• Although reasonable steps have been taken to ensure the validity and accuracy of the information in this document, BCI does not accept any responsibility for any claim, damages, lossor expense, however it arises, out of or in connection with the information in this document, whether by a client, investor or intermediary. This document should not be seen as an offerto purchase any specific product and is not to be construed as advice or guidance in any form whatsoever. Investors are encouraged to obtain independent professional investment andtaxation advice before investing with or in any of BCI/the Manager’s products.

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Page 17: Redefining Investment in Listed Property · Global Listed Real Estate Sectors Not All Sectors are Created Equal 3. Source: FTSE EPRA Nareit, J P Morgan. US REIT Sector Returns. A

Legal Disclaimer

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NewFunds (RF) Proprietary Limited (“NewFunds”) is a registered and approved NewFunds Collective Investment Scheme in Securities (NewFunds CIS) under the Collective InvestmentSchemes Control Act 45 of 2002. The information contained in this document is provided for information purposes only and does it constitute (i) financial advice as contemplated in terms ofthe Financial Advisory and Intermediary Services Act, 37 of 2002; or (ii) any other financial, investment, trading, tax, legal, accounting, retirement, actuarial or other professional advice orservice whatsoever (“advice”) or (iii) provide the basis of any credit, financial or other evaluation. It does not purport to be a prospectus for any security, financial product, transaction orservice nor is it deemed appropriate and/or suitable for any particular investment, investor’s objectives or financial circumstances. This document is neither an offer to sell nor a solicitation ofan offer to buy any of the products and, while every effort is made to ensure the information contained herein is complete and accurate, any pricing and other information included herein isindicative only and is not binding as such on Absa Bank Limited and NewFunds (collectively the Promoters”). Accordingly, the information contained herein merely contains a description ofcertain facts as at the date hereof and investors are advised to carry out their own independent investigation and appraisal and seek their own advice prior to making any decision or takingaction based on information contained herein. The Promoters disclaim any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential damage or losses that may be suffered as a result from using orrelying on the information disclosed. Investors are advised that not all risks and issues related to the products are disclosed and therefore, Investors should familiarize themselves with theproducts and the risks and issues related to or associated with them. Collective Investments Schemes in Securities (“CIS”) are generally medium to long term investments where the investoressentially owns a “proportionate share” (in proportion to the participatory interest held in the fund) of the underlying investments held by the fund. The value of participatory interests mayfluctuate as a result of market moves, associated external factors and risks, and past performance is not generally a guide to future performance. Any information on past financial returns,modelling or back-testing cannot be guaranteed nor does NewFunds guarantee with respect to the capital or return of any portfolio of NewFunds CIS. Listed CIS products are traded at rulingprices and can engage in borrowing and scrip lending. A schedule of fees and charges is available from NewFunds upon request. Absa Bank Limited Reg No 1986/004794/06, an AuthorisedFinancial Services Provider (FSP 72), Registered Credit Provider Reg No NCRCP7. NewFunds (RF) Proprietary Limited registration number 2005/034899/07. This document was publishedon 04 November 2019.

Page 18: Redefining Investment in Listed Property · Global Listed Real Estate Sectors Not All Sectors are Created Equal 3. Source: FTSE EPRA Nareit, J P Morgan. US REIT Sector Returns. A

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Collective Investment Schemes are generally medium to long term investments. The value of the participatory interests may go down as well as up. The manager does not provide anyguarantee either with respect to the capital or the return of a portfolio. Past performance is not necessarily an indication of future performance. CIS’s are traded at ruling prices and canengage in borrowing and scrip lending. Different classes of units apply to these portfolios and are subject to different fees and charges. A schedule of fees and charges and maximumcommissions is available on request from the manager. The manager has a right to close portfolios to new investors in order to manage them more efficiently in accordance with theirmandates. Commission and incentives may be paid and if so, will be included in the overall costs. Forward pricing is used. The manager may borrow up to 10% of the market value of theportfolio to bridge insufficient liquidity. Income is reinvested on the re-investment date. The Actual investment performance will differ based on the initial fees applicable, the actualinvestment date and the date of reinvestment of income. Dealing prices are calculated on a net asset value and auditor’s fees, bank charges and trustee fees are levied against the portfolios.Performance is calculated for the portfolio, as well as that the individual investor performance may differ as a result of initial fees, the actual investment date, the date of reinvestment anddividend withholding tax. Income distributions are included in performance calculations prior to deduction of applicable taxes. Performance numbers and graphs are sourced from CollectiveEndeavours Consulting (Pty) Ltd. NAV to NAV figures have been used. Investment performance is for illustrative purposes only. Investment performance is calculated after taking the actualinitial fees and all ongoing fees into account. The reinvestment of income is calculated on the actual amount distributed per participatory interest by using the ex-dividend date NAV price ofthe applicable class of the portfolio, irrespective of the actual date of reinvestment. Risk profile of the fund ranges from low risk to high risk with a low risk potentially associated with lowerrewards and a high risk with potentially higher rewards. A feeder fund is a portfolio that invests in a single portfolio of a collective investment scheme, which levies its own charges and whichcould result in a higher fee structure for the feeder fund. Foreign securities may be included in the portfolio from time to time and as such may result in the following: potential constraints onliquidity and the repatriation of funds; macroeconomic risks; political risks; foreign exchange risks; tax risks; settlement risks and potential limitations on the availability of market information.Certain investments, including futures, options, equity swaps, and other derivatives may give rise to substantial risk and might not be suitable for all investors. The daily cut off time is 14:00for trades and the valuation point is 22:00 daily. Prices are published on Finswitch by 10:00 daily. One can also obtain additional information on Prime Investments products on the PrimeInvestments website and all price related queries or information is readily available on request. Prime Collective Investment Schemes Management (RF) (Pty) Ltd is a registered CollectiveInvestment Scheme Manager in terms of Section 5 of the Collective Investment Schemes Control Act and is a wholly owned subsidiary of Prime Financial Services (Pty) Ltd, a member ofASISA. This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute or form part of any offer to issue or sell, or any solicitation of any offer to subscribe for or purchase anyparticular investment. This document should not be construed as advice or guidance in any form whatsoever. Investors should take cognisance of the fact that there are risks involved inbuying or selling any financial product and are encouraged to obtain independent professional investment and taxation advice. Opinions expressed in this document may be changed withoutnotice at any time after publication. We therefore disclaim any liability for any loss, liability, damage (whether direct or consequential) or expense of any nature whatsoever which may besuffered as a result of or which may be attributable, directly or indirectly, to the use of or reliance upon the information.