Redefining Investment in Listed Property · Global Listed Real Estate Sectors Not All Sectors are...
Transcript of Redefining Investment in Listed Property · Global Listed Real Estate Sectors Not All Sectors are...
Redefining Investment in Listed Property
Global Listed Real EstateReminder that Real Estate Isn’t Just Offices and Shopping Centres
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There are 25 Sectors and Sub-sectors Each Behaving Differently During Different Parts of the Property Cycle
Industrial
• Manufacturing• Logistics
Retail
• Malls• Shopping
Centres• Strip Centres• Triple Net
Office
• Traditional• Co-working
Residential
• Single Family• Multi Family• Manufactured• Student
Diversified
• Diversified Property Portfolio
Lodging
• Resorts and Hotels
Healthcare
• Hospitals• MOBs• Senior Housing• Skilled Nursing• Life Science
Labs
SelfStorage
Specialised
• Towers• Fibre• Datacentres
Resources
• Timber• Farmland
Global Listed Real Estate SectorsNot All Sectors are Created Equal
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Source: FTSE EPRA Nareit, J P Morgan
US REIT Sector Returns
A Tale of Two Cities SectorsIt was the best of times (Industrial), it was the worst of times (Retail)
4Source: Datastream, Reitway Analysis
Year to Date USDTotal Return YTD 2020-09-30
Retail Index -40.9%Industrial Index 14.2%Specialised Index 21.3%Office Index -28.1%Diversified Index -27.2%Residential Index -19.3%
Peak USDTotal Return 2020-01-01 to 2020-02-20Retail Index -2.6%Industrial Index 10.6%Specialised Index 12.5%Office Index 4.7%Diversified Index 2.0%Residential Index 9.1%
Peak to Trough USDTotal Return 2020-02-20 to 2020-03-23Retail Index -50.5%Industrial Index -35.9%Specialised Index -26.0%Office Index -43.1%Diversified Index -51.8%Residential Index -43.0%
Trough to Date USDTotal Return 2020-03-23 to 2020-09-30Retail Index 22.6%Industrial Index 62.1%Specialised Index 45.7%Office Index 20.8%Diversified Index 48.1%Residential Index 30.1%
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Retail Index Industrial Index
-40.9%
14.2%
Sector AllocationPerfect Retail Stock Selection Would Still Not Save You in 2020
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RetailTop 5 Performers USD
Year to Date Total Return 2020-09-30
Taubman Centers 8.58%
Agree Realty Corp. -6.74%
Choice Properties -6.94%
ÆON REIT -11.84%
Realty Income Corp. -14.58%
RetailBottom 5 Performers USD
Year to Date Total Return 2020-09-30
Intu Properties plc Delisted
Hammerson plc -88.71%
Hyprop Investments -75.49%
Unibail-Rodamco -74.59%
Macerich -71.56%
IndustrialTop 5 Performers USD
Year to Date Total Return 2020-09-30
Innovative Industrial 69.14%
Warehouses de Pauw 43.17%
Goodman Group 38.88%
Nippon Prologis REIT 34.30%
GLP J-REIT 28.52%
IndustrialBottom 5 Performers USD
Year to Date Total Return 2020-09-30
PS Business Parks Inc. -23.98%
Dream Industrial REIT -12.38%
Tritax EuroBox plc -6.79%
LondonMetric plc -5.60%
First Industrial Realty -2.17%
Source: Datastream, Reitway Analysis
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Taubman Centers
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Intu Properties
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Innovative Industrial Properties
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8000PS Business Parks
The Retail “Apocalypse”The Apocalypse Has Been a Reality Since 2010
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“Dead shopping malls rise like mountains beyond mountains” Sprawl II, Arcade Fire, 2010
The Retail “Apocalypse”USA and UK Retail Store Openings and Closings 2012 to 2019
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2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
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2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
USA Store Openings and Closings (in ‘000 Units) UK Store Openings and Closings (in ‘000 Units)
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics Source: Local Data Company
The Retail “Apocalypse”Retail Nightmare of 2020 – Major Bankruptcies and Store Closures
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Source: CB Insights, Cowen, Reitway Analysis
24 hour fitness Celine Group Holding G Star Raw Johnsons' Shoes Muji UK T J Hughes OutletsAdvantage Rent a Car Centric Brands Gadget Shop Kath Kidston Muji USA T M LewinAldo International Century 21 GameStop Kikki.K Neimann Marcus Tailored BrandsAmerican Eagle Chico's Gap Kirkland's Neiman's Last Call Ten Thousand VillagesAntler Children’s Place GNC Kroger Noni B TeslaArt Van Furniture Chiquito's Go Outdoors L Brands Nordstrom The Athlete's FootAscena Retail Group Coldwater Creek Gold's Gym L K Bennet Nordstrom-owned Jeffrey Things EngravedAshbury Furniture Curious Planet Guess La Senza Norville Group TigerlilyAutonomy Clothing Dawson's Music Gymboree Laura Ashley NPC Peter JonesBeales Dean & Deluca H and M Le Pain Quotidien Oak Furnitureland Pier 1 ImportsBed, Bath and Beyond Debenhams Hallmark Lee Longlands Oasis and Warehouse Poundstretcher PropBench Diane von Furstenberg Harris Scarfe Links of London Oddbins PradaBenson Beds Dion Wired Harry & David Lombok Oliver Sweeney Trading PVH -Heritage BrandsBentley Luggage DW Sport Harveys Furniture Lord & Taylor Opening Ceremony QuizBertram Books Earth Fare Hawkins Bazaar Louis Vuitton Roots USA Rent the RunwayBlue Stem EB Games Hearing and Mobility Lowe's Rona RTW Retailwinds Travis Perkins plcBonmarché Edgars Hertz Lucky Brand SFP Franchise Corp. Trunk ClubBose Ena Shaw Home Outfitters Lucky's Market Signet Jewellers Tuesday MorningBouclair Estee Lauder Houseology Lulu Guinness Simply Scuba Ulta BeautyBrighthouse Express J C Penny M&Co Sleep Number Under ArmourBrooks Brothers Fairway J Crew Macy’s Soak ValentinoC and J Clark Retail Fairway Grocery J Crew UK Masscash Soletrader Victoria's SecretCaleres Feather & Black J. Hillburn McWilliam's Wines SpaceNK WalgreensCapri Holdings Foot Locker J.C. Penney Michael Hill Spicers G.H. BassCardinal Forever 21 J.Jill Microsoft Stage ZaraCarluccio's Fossil Jack Willis Ltd. Modell’s Sporting Goods Stein Mart ZellersCarphone Warehouse Frankie and Benny's Jeanswest Monsoon Accessorize Sur la Table PapyrusCarter's Frye John Varvatos Motherhood Sweaty Betty Party City
Sector RotationRetail and Hospitality Have Had an Annus Horribilis
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Source: Data show unlevered NCREIF Property Index returns filtered for only Open-end Diversified Core Equity (ODCE) managers.
Source: CBRE-Econometric Advisors, Q2 2020. Note: retail rent growth only reflects Neighbourhood, Community and Strip Centres (excludes Malls, Lifestyle and Power Centres).
US Real Estate Returns Across Property Types[Rolling four-quarter total return %]
Property Sector Rental Growth[Year over year change in quarters ended %]
Sector RotationIndustrial has Now Overtaken Retail in Terms of Total Investment
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Share of Total Investment
Source: Savills, Real Capital Analytics
• Industrial investment volumes overtook retail for the first time in 2019, it is now the third most-invested asset class after office and residential.
• In the first half of 2020 investment in the Industrial sector accounted for 20% of all global investment volumes.
• In 2019 $196 billion USD was invested in the sector, almost double the share of 10 years ago.
eCommerce PenetrationMajority of Global Market Still has Large Growth Potential
Source: PPRO Payments and eCommerce Reports 2019-2020 , 2020-03
24%
19%
17%
16%
16%
16%
15%
15%
13%
13%
12%
11%
10%
10%
10%
10%
9% 9% 9%
8% 8% 8% 8%
7% 7% 7% 7% 7%
6%
5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5%
4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4%
3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
2% 2% 2% 2% 2%
Chin
a
UK
Taiw
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Sout
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Ger
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Wor
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USA
Belg
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Nor
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Finl
and
Fran
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Czec
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Net
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Swed
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Swiz
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nd
Aust
ralia
Japa
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Saud
i Ara
bia
New
Zea
land
Cana
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Aust
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Slov
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Esto
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Kaza
khst
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Rom
ania
Isra
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Spai
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Sing
apor
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Chile
Lith
uani
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Russ
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Turk
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Hun
gary
Pola
nd
Indi
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Indo
nesi
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Latv
ia
Ukr
aine
UAE Ita
ly
Port
ugal
Arge
ntin
a
Braz
il
Colo
mbi
a
Peru
Uru
guay
Egyp
t
Mal
aysi
a
Thai
land
Bulg
aria
Sout
h Af
rica
Mex
ico
eCommerce Sales GrowthSales Growth is Strong Especially in the Developing World
Source: eMarketer
Top 10 Countries Ranked by Retail eCommerce Growth [2019 % change]
Retail eCommerce Growth by Region[2019 % change]
20,7%
18,1%
18,7%
18,8%
20,6%
21,1%
22,4%
27,3%
31,0%
31,9%
35,0%
Worldwide
South Korea
Russia
Argentina
Indonesia
Canada
Malaysia
China
Philippines
India
Mexico
20,7%
10,2%
14,5%
19,4%
21,3%
21,3%
25,0%
Worldwide
Western Europe
North America
C and E Europe
Latin America
ME and Africa
Asia-Pacific
Industrial Juggernaut Still Has Room to RunJLL Projects Growth of over 93 Million m2 of Industrial by 2025
Source: JLL
524 60
2 772 85
2 1005 11
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2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Historical and Projected eCommerce Sales (USD Bn)
• We have witnessed a Retail Apocalypse, beginning in 2010, driven by departmentstores and other weak retailers closing, and accelerated by COVID-19 in 2020.
• Decline is certainly not over, and while Retail will not disappear the reality is thatthere are still likely several failures waiting to occur.
• There are still too many malls in certain countries, the Middle market has been hollowed out, growth is primarily at the Discount and Premium ends of the market.
• Online stores opening physical; click and collect; repurposing etc will offset a smallpercentage of space closed by traditional retailers going out of business or rationalising.
• More retail pain likely to come, and recapitalisations are not over yet.• eCommerce sales growth remains robust, there is a lot of growth potential still.• Logistics will remain resilient, but tenants are better utilising m3 (this will impact demand)
and the eventual Supply / Demand equilibrium is approaching.• Other factors are rising land costs in the quest for last mile distribution centre properties.• Industrial rental growth in 2021 may decelerate but will remain strong versus other sectors.
Quo Vadis?
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Redefining Investment in Listed Property
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