REDD-ALERT: Linking global climate arrangements to local land-use behaviour

Robin Matthews

James Hutton Institute

Aberdeen AB15 8QH

UNFCCC COP-18, Doha, Qatar, 29 Nov 2012

Issue-attention cycle theory of Downs

1. Pre-problem phase, the problem exists but is not the subject of public discussion2. Alarmed discovery and euphoric enthusiasm: The public is alarmed and constructively aims to deal with the problem thinking that this is

possible ‘without any fundamental reordering of society itself’ (Copenhagen)3. Social actors become aware of the costs of dealing with the problem (currently)4. Public attention declines as the problem is seen as too complex or expensive to address, or requiring major structural overhaul of societies5. Post problem - twilight realm of lesser attention or spasmodic recurrences of interest

(Downs, 1972)

Is the window of opportunity closing?

Forest-related emissions declining as % of total emissions : 20% 17% 10% due to increase in fossil fuel emissions

Cap-and-trade system in developed countries slow – no demand for credits

Hostage to vagaries of international finance and variations in commodity prices (food)

Supply of credits from big players (e.g. Brazil) may swamp the market

Realisation of costs

Transaction costs high – 80-90% of total?

Use of ODA funds at expense of other devt objectives – also declining due to recession – payments moving from definite to conditional

Seen as unfair – license for northern countries to continue to emit

Too complicated

Forest Carbon Partnership Facility

World Bank Independent Evaluation Group (IEG):

“REDD+ is a more expensive, complex, and protracted undertaking than was anticipated at the time of the FCPF’s launch”

Drivers of the Forest Transition curve

(Gupta et al., 2012)

Around 80% of deforestation from clearing for agriculture

Food demand

Global demand by 2050:

Calories: +100%

Protein: +110%

(Tilman et al., 2011, PNAS)

Competition between global land uses

Some countries have increased forest area and food production – Costa Rica, El Salvador, Bhutan, Vietnam

agricultural intensification land use zoning forest protection creation of off-farm jobs foreign capital investments remittances

But - 39% of regrowth of Vietnam’s forests through increasing food & wood imports

Factors influencing global land use change: Displacement and cascade effects Rebound effect Remittance effect

Lambin & Meyfroidt (2011), PNAS 108:3465

Drivers and REDD+ instrumentsRegulatory instruments

Trade restrictions Protected areas Reporting Land rights

Economic and market instruments Trade liberalisation Funds, grants & loans Forest C offsetting Forest certification

Suasive instruments Concepts & principles Targets Information and education Research

Economy-wide modelling

Complex relationship between the 3Es (effectiveness, efficiency, equity) not evident in more aggregate analyses

Landowners benefit but local subsistence demands would raise their opportunity costs

Rent and wage changes create net costs for most private stakeholders

REDD+ mechanisms should avoid general formulas by giving local authorities the necessary flexibility to address the trade-offs involved

Dyer et al, 2012. PLoS (in press)

Encouraging behaviour changevan Vugt’s 4Is framework

Incentives (self-improvement)

Information (understanding)

Identity (belonging, pride, shame)

Institutions (trust)

Altruism index: A = c + w*(t-c) + e*(1 – (c + w*(t-c)))

c = communication

e = equity

w = welfare

t = threat from environmental damage

Systems thinking

Should REDD fund agricultural research and reduction in food chain waste?: 34% more GHGs since 1961 if Green Revolution had not occurred - cost around only $4/tCO2e (Burney et al, 2010)

Matthews & De Pinto, 2012. Carb. Mgt 3:117-120

Agriculture (arable,

grasslands)

WetlandsForests

Communities

Socio-ecological systems:

Livelihoods, recreation, health

Fluxes of carbon, water, nutrients, energy, labour & capital

Organisation, governance, conflict resolution

Resilience to change

Agricultural intensification

Borlaug hypothesis: agricultural intensification relieves pressure on forests

Closed system – increased productivity decreases prices, no clearing

Open system – increased income incentivises further clearing

In/out-migration

Guinea rain forest - if fertiliser/ shade tree intensification of cocoa adopted in 1960s

21,000 km2 less deforestation 1.4 billion tCO2 saved

Lambin & Meyfroidt (2011); Gockowski & Sonwa (2011)

Pucallpa, Peru

What has REDD+ achieved so far?

Better understanding of the drivers of deforestation

Progress in methodologies

Baselines

Monitoring, reporting, verification

Emissions from tropical peatlands

Realisation that deforestation is a landscape problem – need to deal with underlying drivers – NAMAs

It’s not all economics – range of solutions needed

Has created awareness of importance of forests – concept of the ‘global forest’

A global forest transition?Supply - shift production to more productive lands

Expanding the area of natural forests managed sustainably

Supporting natural regeneration through land zoning, forest extraction regulations, and plantations on degraded land

Increasing production and productivity from tree plantations

Promoting agroforestry in areas unsuitable for large-scale intensive farming

Sparing land for forests through agricultural intensification combined with land zoning in high-potential agricultural areas

Demand

Create a demand for carbon credits in cap-and-trade systems

Ecoconsumerism

Corporate environmentalism