REDapp The Universal Fire Behavior Calculator · the FWI Calculator. Spline-interpolated noon LST...

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The Universal Fire Behavior Calculator Version 6.2 User Guide Neal McLoughlin, Government of Alberta January 8, 2019

Transcript of REDapp The Universal Fire Behavior Calculator · the FWI Calculator. Spline-interpolated noon LST...

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The Universal Fire Behavior Calculator

Version 6.2 User Guide Neal McLoughlin, Government of Alberta

January 8, 2019

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Contents

1.0 Introduction .................................................................................................... 2

2.0 General Design ................................................................................................ 2

3.0 Weather .......................................................................................................... 3

Example 3.1. Download a GEM deterministic forecast ........................................... 3

Example 3.2. Compare deterministic and ensemble forecasts against observed ........ 4

4.0 FWI Calculator ................................................................................................. 5

Example 4.1. Calculate daily codes and indices .................................................... 6

Example 4.2. Calculate hourly codes and indices .................................................. 7

5.0 FBP Calculator ................................................................................................. 9

Example 5.1. Calculate expected fire behavior ..................................................... 9

6.0 Map .............................................................................................................. 10

Example 6.1. Plot an elliptical fire growth projection on a map ............................. 10

7.0 Spotting Calculator ......................................................................................... 11

Exercise 7.1. Calculate maximum spot fire distance ............................................ 11

8.0 Statistics ....................................................................................................... 11

Example 8.1. Import an hourly weather file ....................................................... 12

Example 8.2. Compare diurnal and hourly FFMC outputs ..................................... 13

Example 8.3. Import a diurnal weather file ........................................................ 13

Example 8.4. Compare diurnal weather model against hourly observations ............ 15

Example 8.5. Import a daily weather file ........................................................... 16

9.0 References .................................................................................................... 17

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1.0 Introduction REDapp is a fire management decision support tool developed with financial support from

the Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre and in-kind support from fire management

agencies across Canada. The founding members of the REDapp development team

represent the Government of Alberta, Government of the Northwest Territories, Heartland

Software Solutions Inc., and Natural Resources Canada.

This user guide provides examples of how REDapp can be used for fire behavior prediction.

Screen captures showing inputs and outputs are used in place of step-wise instructions. A

fire from the 2011 Flat Top Complex in Slave Lake, AB is referenced in many of the

examples. This document assumes the reader is familiar with Canadian Forest Fire Danger

Rating System (CFFDRS). Stocks et al. (1989) provide an overview of the CFFDRS. Wotton

(2008) provides a review of the CFFDRS with a focus on understanding and interpreting

Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) System outputs. Additional references are cited

throughout the user guide for those who wish to learn more.

2.0 General Design REDapp software is available for Windows, Linux,

and Apple operating systems from

www.redapp.org. REDapp is not currently

available for mobile devices. The general design

of REDapp includes global inputs along the top

followed by six functionally specific tabs with

command options located horizontally across the

bottom. Date, time zone, and location are

considered global inputs as they influence

calculations on several of the tabs. There is no

project file associated with REDapp. However,

most of the tabs include an export option for

documentation purposes.

A set of assumptions appear each time you open

REDapp. There is an option to not show the

assumptions box on startup. Additional

application options can be accessed from the

Settings button. REDapp can be viewed in

English or French, but must be re-opened to

apply changes to the language setting. The time

zone drop down can be constrained to a region.

One of three formats are available for entering

geographic coordinates. Units can be displayed

in metric or imperial.

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Scaling distances to a specified map scale is useful when plotting predicted fire spread

distances on a map. Retain input values when exiting is useful when performing repeat

calculations for a particular location. Weather Links are the source of current conditions and

forecast information shown in the Weather tab. Weather Links are not web services. A

default scale can be set for the Map tab. Imagery for the Map tab can be sourced from a

web service or OpenStreetMap Offline when working with no internet connection.

Use the Report A Bug feature in the lower-right corner of REDapp if you encounter any

issues. Bug reports submitted in this manner are added to a project management database

monitored by the development team.

Tip: Many acronyms appear throughout REDapp. Hover your

mouse cursor over an acronym to view a tool tip.

3.0 Weather The Weather tab provides access to current weather conditions and the North American

Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) as made available by the Meteorological Service of

Canada. The Weather tab can only be used with an internet connection. NAEFS combines

state of the art ensemble forecasts developed at the Meteorological Service of Canada and

the United States National Weather Service into a 1-14-day super-ensemble forecast

(Government of Canada 2016). Although NAEFS forecasts are seamless across Canada, the

United States and Mexico, the REDapp drop downs for selecting a province and city are

currently limited to Government of Canada weather station locations. Current conditions and

forecast information cannot be accessed for locations outside of Canada.

The Global Environmental Multi-scale Model (GEM) was developed for Canada and produces

16-day forecasts for twenty perturbed ensemble members and an unperturbed control

member. The GEM model also produces a 10-day forecast for the Global Deterministic

Prediction System (GDPS). Ensemble and global forecasts are made twice a day at 0000

and 1200 Zulu time. The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) produce

similar ensemble forecasts for the United States. Archived forecasts from the past 31 days

can be viewed in REDapp.

The following ensemble members apply to each of the weather model options:

GEM deterministic = 22

GEM ensemble = 1 to 21 (1 is the control member)

NCEP ensemble = 23 to 43 (23 is the control member)

Example 3.1. Download a GEM deterministic forecast

Specify Slave Lake, Alberta as the weather forecast location using the Province and City

drop down lists. Select the GEM Deterministic weather model option.

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Tip: Use the Override Global Date option to retrieve forecast

information for a date different than the global date. This option

is useful when forecast information is not available for the

specified global date.

Example 3.2. Compare deterministic and ensemble forecasts

against observed

The Export Forecast option was used to save May 13, 2016 00Z weather forecast files for

Slave Lake, AB. The following figure shows the temperature, relative humidity, and wind

speed observed at 1200 MST by station YZH in Slave Lake, AB for a 10-day forecast period

(solid red points). The range of values from the GEM ensemble forecast (including the

control member) are shown with gray box-and-whisker plots. The black bar in the center of

each box-and-whisker corresponds with the 50th percentile (or median) of the ensemble.

The hollow black points are GEM deterministic model outputs.

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The above figure is not intended to advocate one forecast product over another. However,

the user should acknowledge that the inter-quartile range (and uncertainty) associated with

ensemble forecasts tends to increase after day 5. Further, the median values from an

ensemble distribution may be misleading with respect to extreme weather. Deterministic

model outputs may be a better predictor of extreme weather in the absence of studying the

full range of values from an ensemble forecast.

Tip: Use the Transfer to FWI and Transfer to Statistics

buttons to quickly input a weather forecast to the FWI

Calculator and Statistics tab respectively. Highlight a row in the

forecast table to specify what hourly weather are transferred to

the FWI Calculator. Spline-interpolated noon LST weather

values are transferred regardless of the row selected.

4.0 FWI Calculator The FWI Calculator is used for computing outputs of the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI)

System (Van Wagner 1987). Required inputs for calculating daily codes and indices include

today's air temperature, relative humidity, 24-hr accumulated precipitation and 10-m open

wind speed taken at 1200 LST, and yesterday's FFMC, DMC, and DC values. Calculating

hourly codes and indices may require certain hourly fire weather inputs in addition to the

previously mentioned daily inputs depending on the FFMC option selected.

There are two options for calculating hourly FFMC. These two options will result in different

outputs depending on the time of day and associated hourly weather inputs. It is important

that you understand the differences between these two methods. The diurnal option

(Lawson et al. 1996) only requires an hourly relative humidity input if the specified time is

prior to 1200 LST. A tabular version of the diurnal method for adjusting FFMC is included in

the field guide to the Canadian Forest Fire Behavior Prediction (FBP) System (Taylor et al.

1997). The hourly option (Van Wagner 1977) requires hourly inputs of air temperature,

relative humidity, precipitation, 10-m open wind speed, and the previous hour's FFMC value.

A 10-m open wind speed is required for calculating hourly ISI regardless of the FFMC option

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selected. Lawson and Armitage (2008) provide a detailed comparison of the diurnal and

hourly options for calculating FFMC.

Example 4.1. Calculate daily codes and indices

Alberta's Wildfire Coordination Centre issued the following weather forecast for the Swan

Hills zone on the afternoon of May 13, 2011. The forecast values represent peak burning

period (1700 MDT) on May 14. A fire weather advisory also accompanied the afternoon

weather forecast. Exceptionally low RH values and strong southeast winds were expected to

give rise to very easy burning conditions for boreal zones east of the fifth meridian. The fifth

meridian is located 50 km east of the town of Slave Lake, AB.

Max

Temp

Low

RH

Pcpn

Covg

Pcpn

Type

Ltg

today

Ltg

tom

Trend Wind

Tomorrow

Afternoon

20 °C 25

%

- - Low Low UP SE40G60

km/h

The following FWI System codes and indices were calculated at noon on May 13, 2011 for

the Flat Top lookout tower located 12 km south of Slave Lake.

FFMC DMC DC ISI BUI FWI DSR

74.8 9.3 182.7 1.2 16.5 1.0 0.03

The geographic coordinates for the Flat Top lookout tower (55.145738°, -114.815261°,

1039 m) are used as the location in this example. Noon weather can be approximated from

the forecast by subtracting 3 °C from Max Temp, adding 7 % to Low RH, and subtracting 3

km/h from Wind Tomorrow Afternoon.

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Tip: Make sure to enter the correct date. Month influences day

length factors used in DMC and DC calculations. REDapp

defaults to the current date on your computer.

Example 4.2. Calculate hourly codes and indices

Fire SWF065 is discovered 8 km southeast of Slave Lake on May 14, 2011 at 1746 MDT. The

following information is gathered at 1801 MDT when the fire is assessed:

Fire Origin : 55.225650°, -114.651217°, 600 m

Terrain: flat

FBP Fuel Type: C-2

Temp 22 °C, RH 16 %, Wind SE46 km/h

Fire Type: Crown

Station YZH in Slave Lake, AB reported the following conditions on May 14 at 1300 MDT.

Temp RH 24-hr

Precipitation

Wind

Speed

Wind

Direction

20 °C 20

%

0.0 mm 44

km/h

140 °

The geographic coordinates for the origin of fire SWF065 are used as the location in this

example. Hourly codes and indices are calculated for 1800 MDT. Outputs from both the

Diurnal (Lawson) and Hourly (Van Wagner) FFMC options are presented for comparison.

Notice the difference in calculated HFFMC values only one hour after the daily FFMC which

represents conditions at 1700 MDT. The Hourly (Van Wagner) option would likely be

impractical to use at other times of day due to the requirement for an FFMC value from the

previous hour. The Hourly (Van Wagner) option is better-suited to the Statistics tab.

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Diurnal (Lawson) option

Hourly (Van Wagner) option

Tip: Use the Transfer to FBP button to quickly input your

daily or hourly weather and calculated codes and indices to the

FBP Calculator.

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5.0 FBP Calculator The FBP Calculator is used for computing outputs of the Canadian Fire Behavior Prediction

(FBP) System (Forestry Canada Fire Danger Group 1992; Wotton et al. 2009). One of 18

fuel models can be selected from the FBP Fuel Type drop down. Click the Information

button to view photos and a written description of the selected fuel type. Fire weather

inputs include FFMC, BUI, 10-m open wind speed and wind direction. DMC and DC inputs

can be provided in place of a BUI value. Terrain inputs include elevation, percent slope, and

aspect. Ignition inputs include the type (point or line), start time, and elapsed time. A point

ignition incorporates acceleration in the calculation of rate of spread after elapsed time t,

where as a line ignition does not. Spread distance outputs (DH, DF, DB) can be viewed in

map units by clicking the Settings button and selecting the option to Scale distances to

map scale.

Example 5.1. Calculate expected fire behavior

Click the Transfer to FBP button in the FWI Calculator after completing Example 4.2 using

the Diurnal (Lawson) FFMC option. Specify a fuel type and enter a wind direction and terrain

characteristics according to the initial fire assessment. Run the calculation from the time of

discovery (1746) to 1 hour after the initial assessment (1901). Your elapsed time should be

75 minutes. Notice that the accelerating ROSt has nearly reach equilibrium ROS after 75

minutes of elapsed time (t).

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Tip: Make sure to enter the correct date, location and

elevation. These inputs influence Foliar Moisture Content (FMC)

calculations which in turn influence the initiation of crowning

and conifer plantation (C-6) crown fire spread rate.

6.0 Map The Map tab is for displaying an elliptical fire growth projection over Open Street Map data.

Change the Map source setting to Open Street Map Offline to use the Map tab without an

internet connection.

Example 6.1. Plot an elliptical fire growth projection on a map

Click the Display on Map button in the FBP Calculator tab after completing Example 5.1.

Use check marks in the legend to specify what to display on the map. Click a weather

station symbol on the map to view the station's name, geographic coordinates and

elevation. Click an ignition symbol on the map to view its geographic coordinates. Click a

fire perimeter on the map to view its elliptical area.

Tip: Use the Export button to save your elliptical projection as

a KML, KMZ or SHP file.

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7.0 Spotting Calculator The Spotting Calculator is a predictive model for calculating the maximum spot fire distance

expected when firebrands are thrown into the air by a burning pile, surface fire or torching

trees (Albini 1979; Albini 1983). Inputs include wind speed, downwind cover height, terrain

characteristics, fire type and associated information related to the production of fire brands.

Exercise 7.1. Calculate maximum spot fire distance

The wind speed observed at the time fire SWF065 was assessed is used in this example.

The terrain is flat, and the downwind cover height has been estimated at 14 m. Torching

trees is the most suitable fire type given the crown fire observed by the assessor. Engelman

spruce is the closest tree species to Black and White spruce which are characteristic of the

C-2 fuel type.

8.0 Statistics The Statistics tab is a culmination of the Weather, FWI Calculator, and FBP Calculator tabs.

The Statistics tab provides a tabular display of weather conditions either transferred from

the Weather tab, imported from file, or entered manually by the user. FWI, FBP, and Solar

Values are calculated for every record in the table using the options specified in the lower-

left tabs. Use the Columns tab to customize what is displayed. Use the FWI tab to change

starting code values and HFFMC calculation method. Use the FBP tab to change the fuel type

and parameters used for primary and secondary FBP calculations.

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Example 8.1. Import an hourly weather file

The standard header names for an hourly weather file are provided in the following table.

The first column must be “hourly”. Otherwise the order of the remaining columns is not

important. Header names can be provided in upper or lower case.

Header Name Data Type Description

hourly character Date in d/m/y format

hour integer Hour of the day (0 to 23)

temp numeric Temperature (°C)

rh numeric Relative humidity (0 to 100 %)

precip numeric Precipitation accumulated over the past hour (≥ 0 mm)

ws numeric Wind speed (≥ 0 km/h)

wd numeric Wind direction (0 to 360 compass degrees)

This example demonstrates how to import an hourly weather file with non-standard header

names. Copy the following comma-delimited weather observations into a text editor such as

Notepad and save as a TXT file.

Date,Time,Temp,RH,Pcpn,WndSpd,WndDir

2011-05-14,0:00,12.6,60,0,15,110

2011-05-14,1:00,11.7,59,0,11,110

2011-05-14,2:00,12.5,42,0,24,130

2011-05-14,3:00,12.4,40,0,20,130

2011-05-14,4:00,11.8,41,0,28,120

2011-05-14,5:00,11.1,42,0,22,130

2011-05-14,6:00,10,44,0,19,130

2011-05-14,7:00,10.9,43,0,32,140

2011-05-14,8:00,12.7,42,0,28,140

2011-05-14,9:00,14.1,37,0,32,150

2011-05-14,10:00,16.4,32,0,37,140

2011-05-14,11:00,17.4,29,0,33,140

2011-05-14,12:00,18.9,23,0,41,140

2011-05-14,13:00,20,20,0,44,140

2011-05-14,14:00,20.9,18,0,44,140

2011-05-14,15:00,21.5,16,0,44,140

2011-05-14,16:00,22.3,15,0,37,160

2011-05-14,17:00,21.9,14,0,39,140

2011-05-14,18:00,22.2,14,0,39,140

2011-05-14,19:00,21.2,14,0,37,150

2011-05-14,20:00,20,15,0,43,140

2011-05-14,21:00,18.8,16,0,35,140

2011-05-14,22:00,16.7,20,0,28,130

2011-05-14,23:00,16.3,18,0,32,130

Click the Import Weather button and navigate to the TXT file you saved. An Import

window will appear with a data preview. Make sure the Delimited File option is selected.

Click Next and specify the delimiter as comma. Click Next and enter daily starting codes

from Example 4.1 (FFMC 74.8, DMC 9.3, DC 182.7). Select the Diurnal (Lawson) FFMC

option. Click Finish. A Custom Import window will appear. Click on the top row of columns

5, 6, and 7 to specify the header names as Precip, WS, and WD respectively. Specify the

date and time formats as "y-M-d" and "H:m" using the drop-down lists in the lower-left.

Click Import.

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Tip: Right-click a highlighted row in the Statistics table to

transfer weather and FWI System values to the FBP Calculator

or display an elliptical projection on the Map.

Example 8.2. Compare diurnal and hourly FFMC outputs

Use the hourly weather and staring code values provided

in Example 8.1 to calculate HFFMC values with both the

Diurnal (Lawson) and Hourly (Van Wagner) options. Use

the "Export" button to save HFFMC statistics outputs for

the two options to one of four file formats (CSV, XLS,

XLSX, XML). Use software of your choice to graph diurnal

and hourly FFMC outputs. The figure at right illustrates

how HFFMC outputs from the two options can differ,

especially during early morning and late evening hours.

See Appendix 2 in Lawson and Armitage (2008) for other

examples comparing the diurnal and hourly options for

calculating HFFMC.

Example 8.3. Import a diurnal weather file

REDapp includes an empirical model developed by Beck and Trevitt (1989) for predicting

diurnal variation in temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed given daily minimum

and maximum values. In practice, diurnal weather modeling is typically used in conjunction

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with a weather forecast. Three model parameters are required. Parameter estimates derived

from local weather records improve the accuracy of the diurnal weather model.

Alpha (α) is the time lag between the time of sunrise and the time of minimum

temperature or wind speed (hours).

Beta (β) is the time lag between solar noon and the time of maximum temperature

or wind speed (hours).

Gamma (γ) is a night time decay parameter applied between sunset and sunrise on

the next day. Increasing the decay parameter slows the rate at which temperature

cools or wind speed decreases.

The standard header names for a diurnal weather file are provided in the following table.

The first column must be “daily”. Otherwise the order of the remaining columns is not

important. Header names can be provided in upper or lower case.

Header Name Data Type Description

daily character Date in d/m/y format

min_temp numeric Minimum temperature (°C)

max_temp numeric Maximum temperature (°C)

min_rh numeric Minimum relative humidity (0 to 100 %)

min_ws numeric Minimum wind speed (≥ 0 km/h)

max_ws numeric Maximum wind speed (≥ 0 km/h)

wd numeric Wind direction (0 to 360 compass degrees)

precip numeric Precipitation accumulated from 12:00 LST (≥ 0 mm)

This example demonstrates how to import a diurnal weather file with standard header

names. Copy the following comma-delimited weather observations into a text editor such as

Notepad and save as a TXT file. These values were taken from the hourly weather records

provided in Example 8.1.

daily,min_temp,max_temp,min_rh,min_ws,max_ws,wd,precip

14/5/2011,10,22.3,14,11,44,140,0

Click the Import Weather button and navigate to the TXT file you saved. An Import

window will appear with a data preview. Make sure the Weather Stream option is selected.

Click Next and enter daily starting codes from Example 4.1 (FFMC 74.8, DMC 9.3, DC

182.7). Select the Diurnal (Lawson) FFMC option. Click Finish. A Diurnal Wx Algorithm

window will appear.

For this example alpha and beta parameters are calculated using solar times for the date

and location provided in Example 4.2, and hourly weather records provided in Example 8.1.

Solar values are displayed on the FWI Calculator tab (sunrise 0533, solar noon 1335, sunset

2139 MDT). The default gamma parameters for temperature and wind speed (-2.20 and -

3.59 respectively) are not modified. Enter the following alpha and beta parameters in the

Diurnal Wx Algorithm window and click Save.

Temperature:

Alpha: 0600 MDT min temp - 0533 MDT sunrise = 0.47 hrs

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Beta: 1600 MDT max temp - 1335 MDT solar noon = 2.42 hrs

Wind Speed:

Alpha: 0100 MDT min ws - 0533 MDT sunrise = - 4.53 hrs

Beta: 1500 MDT max ws - 1335 MDT solar noon = 1.42 hrs

Tip: Use the hourly display to view diurnal variation predicted

for temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed. Notice that

wind direction remains constant through the entire day. Any

precipitation amount provided will appear on hour 1200 LST.

Example 8.4. Compare diurnal weather model against hourly

observations

Use the Export button to save the diurnal weather values calculated in Example 8.2 in one

of four file formats (CSV, XLS, XLSX, XML). Use software of your choice to graph the hourly

weather from Example 8.1 and the diurnal weather from Example 8.3. A graph similar to

the following figure allows for visual assessment of diurnal weather model accuracy. In this

particular example, temperature appears to have the highest accuracy whereas relative

humidity has the lowest accuracy. Beck and Trevitt (1989) acknowledge that their model

assumption of constant absolute humidity over a 24-hour period does not take into account

the many pathways by which vapor is transferred between the lower atmosphere and the

earth's surface.

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Example 8.5. Import a daily weather file

The standard header names for a daily weather file are provided in the following table. The

first column must be “daily”. Otherwise the order of the remaining columns is not important.

Header names can be provided in upper or lower case. Daily weather records represent

conditions at 1200 LST or 1300 LDT when and where daylight savings time is in effect. Daily

precipitation represents total precipitation accumulated over the past 24-hour period.

Lawson and Armitage (2008) provide further details on daily weather observation practices.

Header Name Data Type Description

daily character Date in d/m/y format

temp numeric Temperature (°C)

rh numeric Relative humidity (0 to 100 %)

ws numeric Wind speed (≥ 0 km/h)

wd numeric Wind direction (0 to 360 compass degrees)

precip numeric Precipitation accumulated over the past 24 hours (≥ 0 mm)

This example demonstrates how to import a daily weather file with standard header names.

Copy the following comma-delimited weather observations into a text editor such as

Notepad and save as a TXT file.

daily,temp,rh,ws,wd,precip

14/5/2011,20,20,44,140,0

Click the Import Weather button and navigate to the TXT file you saved. An Import

window will appear with a data preview. Make sure the Daily Weather option is selected.

Click Next and enter daily starting codes from Example 4.1 (FFMC 74.8, DMC 9.3, DC

182.7). Select the Diurnal (Lawson) FFMC option. Click Finish.

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9.0 References Albini, F.A. 1979. Spot fire distances from burning trees – a predictive model. USDA Forest

Service, Intermountain Forest and Range Experiment Station, Ogden, UT. Gen. Tech.

Rep. INT-56.

Albini, F.A. 1983. Potential spotting distance from wind-driven surface fires. USDA Forest

Service, Intermountain Forest and Range Experiment Station, Ogden, UT. Res. Paper

INT-309.

Beck, J.A.; Trevitt, A.C.F. 1989. Forecasting diurnal variations in meteorological parameters

for predicting fire behavior. Can. J. For. Res. 19(6): 791–797.

Forestry Canada Fire Danger Group. 1992. Development and structure of the Canadian

Forest Fire Behavior Prediction System. For. Can., Sci. Sustain. Dev. Dir., Ottawa, ON.

Inf. Rep. ST-X-3. 63 p.

Government of Canada. 2016. North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS).

Retrieved 30-Jan-2016 from: http://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/naefs/index_e.html

Lawson, B.D.; Armitage, O.B. 2008. Weather guide for the Canadian Forest Fire Danger

Rating System. Nat. Resour. Can., Can. For. Serv., North. For. Cent., Edmonton, AB.

Lawson, B.D.; Armitage, O.B.; Hoskins, W.D. 1996. Diurnal variation in the Fine Fuel

Moisture Code: tables and computer source code. Can. – B.C. Partnership Agreement on

For. Resour. Dev.: FRDA II, Can. For. Serv., B.C. Minist. For., Victoria, BC. FRDA Rep.

245. 20 p.

Stocks B.J.; Lawson B.D.; Alexander M.E.; VanWagner C.E.; McAlpine R.S.; Lynham T.J.;

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