Recovery of Market Value Andreas Gerwinski Seminar Credit Risk Dr. Frank Seifried TU Kaiserslautern...
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Transcript of Recovery of Market Value Andreas Gerwinski Seminar Credit Risk Dr. Frank Seifried TU Kaiserslautern...
![Page 1: Recovery of Market Value Andreas Gerwinski Seminar Credit Risk Dr. Frank Seifried TU Kaiserslautern 17.Januar 2011 1.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070306/5517f2fa550346d5568b4c47/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
1
Recovery of Market Value
Andreas Gerwinski
Seminar Credit RiskDr. Frank SeifriedTU Kaiserslautern
17.Januar 2011
![Page 2: Recovery of Market Value Andreas Gerwinski Seminar Credit Risk Dr. Frank Seifried TU Kaiserslautern 17.Januar 2011 1.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070306/5517f2fa550346d5568b4c47/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
D.Duffie and K.J.Singleton, Modeling Term Structures of defaultable Bonds
Content
Chapter 1: Valuation of defaultable Claims
a discrete-time Motivation Continuous-time valuation Exogenous expected loss rate a continuous-time Markov formulation Price dependent expected loss rate
Chapter 2: Valuation of Defaultable Bonds
Recovery and valuation of bonds Valuation of noncallable corporate bonds a defaultable HJM model Valuation of defaultable callable bonds
Chapter 3: Pricing Bond and Credit Derivatives
Pricing a credit-spread put option
![Page 3: Recovery of Market Value Andreas Gerwinski Seminar Credit Risk Dr. Frank Seifried TU Kaiserslautern 17.Januar 2011 1.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070306/5517f2fa550346d5568b4c47/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
D.Duffie and K.J.Singleton, Modeling Term Structures of defaultable Bonds
Content
Chapter 1: Valuation of defaultable Claims
a discrete-time Motivation Continuous-time valuation Exogenous expected loss rate a continuous-time Markov formulation Price dependent expected loss rate
![Page 4: Recovery of Market Value Andreas Gerwinski Seminar Credit Risk Dr. Frank Seifried TU Kaiserslautern 17.Januar 2011 1.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070306/5517f2fa550346d5568b4c47/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
D.Duffie and K.J.Singleton, Modeling Term Structures of defaultable Bonds
Valuation of defaultable Claims
modeling term structures of bonds and other contingent claims that are subject to default risk
default as an unpredictable event governed by a hazard rate process
parameterization of losses at default in terms of the fractional reduction in market value that occurs at default
fix some contingent claim that, if no default occurs, pays X at time T
Arbitrage-free setting in which all securities are priced in terms of some short-rate process r and equivalent martingale measure Q
Under this “risk neutral” probability measure,
fractional loss in market value if default were to occur at time t, conditional on the information available up to time t
this claim may be priced as if it were default-free by replacing the usual short-term interest rate process r with the default-adjusted short-rate process R=r +hL
![Page 5: Recovery of Market Value Andreas Gerwinski Seminar Credit Risk Dr. Frank Seifried TU Kaiserslautern 17.Januar 2011 1.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070306/5517f2fa550346d5568b4c47/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
D.Duffie and K.J.Singleton, Modeling Term Structures of defaultable Bonds
Valuation of defaultable Claims
Valuation equation or general pricing relation
![Page 6: Recovery of Market Value Andreas Gerwinski Seminar Credit Risk Dr. Frank Seifried TU Kaiserslautern 17.Januar 2011 1.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070306/5517f2fa550346d5568b4c47/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
D.Duffie and K.J.Singleton, Modeling Term Structures of defaultable Bonds
Valuation of defaultable Claims a discrete-time Motivation Continuous-time valuation Exogenous expected loss rate a continuous-time Markov formulation Price dependent expected loss rate
![Page 7: Recovery of Market Value Andreas Gerwinski Seminar Credit Risk Dr. Frank Seifried TU Kaiserslautern 17.Januar 2011 1.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070306/5517f2fa550346d5568b4c47/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
D.Duffie and K.J.Singleton, Modeling Term Structures of defaultable Bonds
Valuation of defaultable Claims a discrete-time Motivation Continuous-time valuation Exogenous expected loss rate a continuous-time Markov formulation Price dependent expected loss rate
![Page 8: Recovery of Market Value Andreas Gerwinski Seminar Credit Risk Dr. Frank Seifried TU Kaiserslautern 17.Januar 2011 1.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070306/5517f2fa550346d5568b4c47/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
D.Duffie and K.J.Singleton, Modeling Term Structures of defaultable Bonds
Valuation of defaultable Claims a discrete-time Motivation Continuous-time valuation Exogenous expected loss rate a continuous-time Markov formulation Price dependent expected loss rate
![Page 9: Recovery of Market Value Andreas Gerwinski Seminar Credit Risk Dr. Frank Seifried TU Kaiserslautern 17.Januar 2011 1.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070306/5517f2fa550346d5568b4c47/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
D.Duffie and K.J.Singleton, Modeling Term Structures of defaultable Bonds
Valuation of defaultable Claims a discrete-time Motivation Continuous-time valuation Exogenous expected loss rate a continuous-time Markov formulation Price dependent expected loss rate
![Page 10: Recovery of Market Value Andreas Gerwinski Seminar Credit Risk Dr. Frank Seifried TU Kaiserslautern 17.Januar 2011 1.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070306/5517f2fa550346d5568b4c47/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
D.Duffie and K.J.Singleton, Modeling Term Structures of defaultable Bonds
Valuation of defaultable Claims a discrete-time Motivation Continuous-time valuation Exogenous expected loss rate a continuous-time Markov formulation Price dependent expected loss rate
![Page 11: Recovery of Market Value Andreas Gerwinski Seminar Credit Risk Dr. Frank Seifried TU Kaiserslautern 17.Januar 2011 1.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070306/5517f2fa550346d5568b4c47/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
D.Duffie and K.J.Singleton, Modeling Term Structures of defaultable Bonds
Valuation of defaultable Claims a discrete-time Motivation Continuous-time valuation Exogenous expected loss rate a continuous-time Markov formulation Price dependent expected loss rate
![Page 12: Recovery of Market Value Andreas Gerwinski Seminar Credit Risk Dr. Frank Seifried TU Kaiserslautern 17.Januar 2011 1.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070306/5517f2fa550346d5568b4c47/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
D.Duffie and K.J.Singleton, Modeling Term Structures of defaultable Bonds
Valuation of defaultable Claims a discrete-time Motivation Continuous-time valuation Exogenous expected loss rate a continuous-time Markov formulation Price dependent expected loss rate
![Page 13: Recovery of Market Value Andreas Gerwinski Seminar Credit Risk Dr. Frank Seifried TU Kaiserslautern 17.Januar 2011 1.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070306/5517f2fa550346d5568b4c47/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
D.Duffie and K.J.Singleton, Modeling Term Structures of defaultable Bonds
Valuation of defaultable Claims a discrete-time Motivation Continuous-time valuation Exogenous expected loss rate a continuous-time Markov formulation Price dependent expected loss rate
![Page 14: Recovery of Market Value Andreas Gerwinski Seminar Credit Risk Dr. Frank Seifried TU Kaiserslautern 17.Januar 2011 1.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070306/5517f2fa550346d5568b4c47/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
D.Duffie and K.J.Singleton, Modeling Term Structures of defaultable Bonds
Valuation of defaultable Claims a discrete-time Motivation Continuous-time valuation Exogenous expected loss rate a continuous-time Markov formulation Price dependent expected loss rate
![Page 15: Recovery of Market Value Andreas Gerwinski Seminar Credit Risk Dr. Frank Seifried TU Kaiserslautern 17.Januar 2011 1.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070306/5517f2fa550346d5568b4c47/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
D.Duffie and K.J.Singleton, Modeling Term Structures of defaultable Bonds
Valuation of defaultable Claims a discrete-time Motivation Continuous-time valuation Exogenous expected loss rate a continuous-time Markov formulation Price dependent expected loss rate
![Page 16: Recovery of Market Value Andreas Gerwinski Seminar Credit Risk Dr. Frank Seifried TU Kaiserslautern 17.Januar 2011 1.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070306/5517f2fa550346d5568b4c47/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
D.Duffie and K.J.Singleton, Modeling Term Structures of defaultable Bonds
Content
Chapter 2: Valuation of Defaultable Bonds
Recovery and valuation of bonds Valuation of noncallable corporate bonds a defaultable HJM model Valuation of defaultable callable bonds
![Page 17: Recovery of Market Value Andreas Gerwinski Seminar Credit Risk Dr. Frank Seifried TU Kaiserslautern 17.Januar 2011 1.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070306/5517f2fa550346d5568b4c47/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
D.Duffie and K.J.Singleton, Modeling Term Structures of defaultable Bonds
Valuation of Defaultable Bonds Recovery and valuation of bonds Valuation of noncallable corporate bonds a defaultable HJM model Valuation of defaultable callable bonds
![Page 18: Recovery of Market Value Andreas Gerwinski Seminar Credit Risk Dr. Frank Seifried TU Kaiserslautern 17.Januar 2011 1.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070306/5517f2fa550346d5568b4c47/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
D.Duffie and K.J.Singleton, Modeling Term Structures of defaultable Bonds
Valuation of Defaultable Bonds Recovery and valuation of bonds Valuation of noncallable corporate bonds a defaultable HJM model Valuation of defaultable callable bonds
![Page 19: Recovery of Market Value Andreas Gerwinski Seminar Credit Risk Dr. Frank Seifried TU Kaiserslautern 17.Januar 2011 1.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070306/5517f2fa550346d5568b4c47/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
D.Duffie and K.J.Singleton, Modeling Term Structures of defaultable Bonds
Valuation of Defaultable Bonds Recovery and valuation of bonds Valuation of noncallable corporate bonds a defaultable HJM model Valuation of defaultable callable bonds
![Page 20: Recovery of Market Value Andreas Gerwinski Seminar Credit Risk Dr. Frank Seifried TU Kaiserslautern 17.Januar 2011 1.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070306/5517f2fa550346d5568b4c47/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
D.Duffie and K.J.Singleton, Modeling Term Structures of defaultable Bonds
Valuation of Defaultable Bonds Recovery and valuation of bonds Valuation of noncallable corporate bonds a defaultable HJM model Valuation of defaultable callable bonds
![Page 21: Recovery of Market Value Andreas Gerwinski Seminar Credit Risk Dr. Frank Seifried TU Kaiserslautern 17.Januar 2011 1.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070306/5517f2fa550346d5568b4c47/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
D.Duffie and K.J.Singleton, Modeling Term Structures of defaultable Bonds
Valuation of Defaultable Bonds Recovery and valuation of bonds Valuation of noncallable corporate bonds a defaultable HJM model Valuation of defaultable callable bonds
![Page 22: Recovery of Market Value Andreas Gerwinski Seminar Credit Risk Dr. Frank Seifried TU Kaiserslautern 17.Januar 2011 1.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070306/5517f2fa550346d5568b4c47/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
D.Duffie and K.J.Singleton, Modeling Term Structures of defaultable Bonds
Valuation of Defaultable Bonds Recovery and valuation of bonds Valuation of noncallable corporate bonds a defaultable HJM model Valuation of defaultable callable bonds
![Page 23: Recovery of Market Value Andreas Gerwinski Seminar Credit Risk Dr. Frank Seifried TU Kaiserslautern 17.Januar 2011 1.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070306/5517f2fa550346d5568b4c47/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
D.Duffie and K.J.Singleton, Modeling Term Structures of defaultable Bonds
Valuation of Defaultable Bonds Recovery and valuation of bonds Valuation of noncallable corporate bonds a defaultable HJM model Valuation of defaultable callable bonds
![Page 24: Recovery of Market Value Andreas Gerwinski Seminar Credit Risk Dr. Frank Seifried TU Kaiserslautern 17.Januar 2011 1.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070306/5517f2fa550346d5568b4c47/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
D.Duffie and K.J.Singleton, Modeling Term Structures of defaultable Bonds
Valuation of Defaultable Bonds Recovery and valuation of bonds Valuation of noncallable corporate bonds a defaultable HJM model Valuation of defaultable callable bonds
![Page 25: Recovery of Market Value Andreas Gerwinski Seminar Credit Risk Dr. Frank Seifried TU Kaiserslautern 17.Januar 2011 1.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070306/5517f2fa550346d5568b4c47/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
D.Duffie and K.J.Singleton, Modeling Term Structures of defaultable Bonds
Valuation of Defaultable Bonds Recovery and valuation of bonds Valuation of noncallable corporate bonds a defaultable HJM model Valuation of defaultable callable bonds
![Page 26: Recovery of Market Value Andreas Gerwinski Seminar Credit Risk Dr. Frank Seifried TU Kaiserslautern 17.Januar 2011 1.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070306/5517f2fa550346d5568b4c47/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
D.Duffie and K.J.Singleton, Modeling Term Structures of defaultable Bonds
Valuation of Defaultable Bonds Recovery and valuation of bonds Valuation of noncallable corporate bonds a defaultable HJM model Valuation of defaultable callable bonds
![Page 27: Recovery of Market Value Andreas Gerwinski Seminar Credit Risk Dr. Frank Seifried TU Kaiserslautern 17.Januar 2011 1.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070306/5517f2fa550346d5568b4c47/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
D.Duffie and K.J.Singleton, Modeling Term Structures of defaultable Bonds
Valuation of Defaultable Bonds Recovery and valuation of bonds Valuation of noncallable corporate bonds a defaultable HJM model Valuation of defaultable callable bonds
![Page 28: Recovery of Market Value Andreas Gerwinski Seminar Credit Risk Dr. Frank Seifried TU Kaiserslautern 17.Januar 2011 1.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070306/5517f2fa550346d5568b4c47/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
D.Duffie and K.J.Singleton, Modeling Term Structures of defaultable Bonds
Valuation of Defaultable Bonds Recovery and valuation of bonds Valuation of noncallable corporate bonds a defaultable HJM model Valuation of defaultable callable bonds
![Page 29: Recovery of Market Value Andreas Gerwinski Seminar Credit Risk Dr. Frank Seifried TU Kaiserslautern 17.Januar 2011 1.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070306/5517f2fa550346d5568b4c47/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
D.Duffie and K.J.Singleton, Modeling Term Structures of defaultable Bonds
Valuation of Defaultable Bonds Recovery and valuation of bonds Valuation of noncallable corporate bonds a defaultable HJM model Valuation of defaultable callable bonds
![Page 30: Recovery of Market Value Andreas Gerwinski Seminar Credit Risk Dr. Frank Seifried TU Kaiserslautern 17.Januar 2011 1.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070306/5517f2fa550346d5568b4c47/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
D.Duffie and K.J.Singleton, Modeling Term Structures of defaultable Bonds
Valuation of Defaultable Bonds Recovery and valuation of bonds Valuation of noncallable corporate bonds a defaultable HJM model Valuation of defaultable callable bonds
![Page 31: Recovery of Market Value Andreas Gerwinski Seminar Credit Risk Dr. Frank Seifried TU Kaiserslautern 17.Januar 2011 1.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070306/5517f2fa550346d5568b4c47/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
D.Duffie and K.J.Singleton, Modeling Term Structures of defaultable Bonds
Valuation of Defaultable Bonds Recovery and valuation of bonds Valuation of noncallable corporate bonds a defaultable HJM model Valuation of defaultable callable bonds
![Page 32: Recovery of Market Value Andreas Gerwinski Seminar Credit Risk Dr. Frank Seifried TU Kaiserslautern 17.Januar 2011 1.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070306/5517f2fa550346d5568b4c47/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
D.Duffie and K.J.Singleton, Modeling Term Structures of defaultable Bonds
Valuation of Defaultable Bonds Recovery and valuation of bonds Valuation of noncallable corporate bonds a defaultable HJM model Valuation of defaultable callable bonds
![Page 33: Recovery of Market Value Andreas Gerwinski Seminar Credit Risk Dr. Frank Seifried TU Kaiserslautern 17.Januar 2011 1.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070306/5517f2fa550346d5568b4c47/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
33
D.Duffie and K.J.Singleton, Modeling Term Structures of defaultable Bonds
Content
Chapter 3: Pricing Bond and Credit Derivatives
Pricing a credit-spread put option
![Page 34: Recovery of Market Value Andreas Gerwinski Seminar Credit Risk Dr. Frank Seifried TU Kaiserslautern 17.Januar 2011 1.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070306/5517f2fa550346d5568b4c47/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
D.Duffie and K.J.Singleton, Modeling Term Structures of defaultable Bonds
Pricing Bond and Credit Derivatives Pricing a credit-spread put option
![Page 35: Recovery of Market Value Andreas Gerwinski Seminar Credit Risk Dr. Frank Seifried TU Kaiserslautern 17.Januar 2011 1.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070306/5517f2fa550346d5568b4c47/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
D.Duffie and K.J.Singleton, Modeling Term Structures of defaultable Bonds
Pricing Bond and Credit Derivatives Pricing a credit-spread put option
![Page 36: Recovery of Market Value Andreas Gerwinski Seminar Credit Risk Dr. Frank Seifried TU Kaiserslautern 17.Januar 2011 1.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070306/5517f2fa550346d5568b4c47/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
D.Duffie and K.J.Singleton, Modeling Term Structures of defaultable Bonds
Pricing Bond and Credit Derivatives Pricing a credit-spread put option
![Page 37: Recovery of Market Value Andreas Gerwinski Seminar Credit Risk Dr. Frank Seifried TU Kaiserslautern 17.Januar 2011 1.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070306/5517f2fa550346d5568b4c47/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
D.Duffie and K.J.Singleton, Modeling Term Structures of defaultable Bonds
Pricing Bond and Credit Derivatives Pricing a credit-spread put option
![Page 38: Recovery of Market Value Andreas Gerwinski Seminar Credit Risk Dr. Frank Seifried TU Kaiserslautern 17.Januar 2011 1.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070306/5517f2fa550346d5568b4c47/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
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