Recovery: Job Growth and Education Requirements

Through 2020 By: Anthony P. Carnevale, Nicole Smith, Jeff Strohl

June 26, 2013

Educational demand for employment has grown; we expect that trend to continue.

•  24 million of these jobs (43%) will be entirely new positions.

•  31 million (56%) will be due to baby boom retirement.

 

The US Economy Is Expected To Create 55 Million Job Openings By 2020

Who Will Be Hiring?

•  STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering and Math)

•  Healthcare Professions

•  Healthcare Support

•  Community Services

Healthcare, Community Services & STEM Are The Three Fastest Growing Occupational Clusters

•  Healthcare •  STEM •  Blue collar •  Education •  Managerial & professional

office

•  Sales & office support •  Food & personal services •  Social Sciences •  Community services & arts

Recovery 2020: Occupational Clusters

By 2020, 65 Percent of All Jobs Will Require Postsecondary Education

•  Applicants will need to have some form of post-secondary education: –  Bachelor’s Degree or beyond –  Some college/AA degree –  Certificate or certification in a field

•  For most jobs, securing a high school education will not be enough to qualify for employment

There Will Be Fewer Jobs Available For Individuals That Only Possess a High School Diploma

Even The Fastest Growing Fields Will Require High Postsecondary Education

•  STEM, healthcare professions, healthcare support, and community services will all require high levels of education in order to compete for a position.

•  Healthcare support will not have the same high demand for postsecondary education. –  Healthcare support careers, however, will have lower wage growth.

The Fastest Growing Occupations Require High Levels of Postsecondary Education

•  Recovery 2020 confirms cognitive skills are highly sought after by employers.

•  Physically intensive skills are less important. •  Forty-eight percent of jobs require high levels of active

listening. •  Other skills most coveted by employers:

–  Leadership –  Communication –  Analytics –  Administration

What Skills Will Get You Hired?

Intensity of Skills Use Across Careers

Recovery 2020 By State •  The report also gauges each state’s position compared to the

national average; •  Compares the educational composition of jobs in the base year

(2010) to the forecast year (2020); •  Shows where the jobs will be by state, education level and

occupations for 25 detailed occupational categories in 2020; •  Twenty-seven states will be at or above the 65 percent proportion

of jobs that will require postsecondary education beyond HS in 2020.

•  The highest proportion of BA jobs and graduate jobs will be concentrated in northeastern states.

•  Jobs for HS graduates or dropouts will be concentrated in the southern states.

Almost all states currently have average attainment levels below those required for the jobs of the future

RECOVERY: 8 Projections of jobs and education requirements through 2020

Figure 6:Almost all states have current average attainment levels below those required for the jobs of the future.

Shortage(2020)*

Current Attainment (2020)

% Total Projections of demand (2020)

*Rough estimate of shortage

DC 71% Minnesota 69%

North Dakota 69%Colorado 68%

New Hampshire 68%Washington 68%

Kansas 67%Massachussets 66%

Connecticut 65%Oregon 65%

Utah 64%Maryland 64%Nebraska 64%

Virginia 63%Montana 63%

Wisconsin 62%Illinois 62%Hawaii 62%

South Dakota 62%Alaska 62%

New Jersey 62%Michigan 61%New York 61%

Vermont 61%Florida 61%

Idaho 61%Arizona 60%

Iowa 60%Rhode Island 60%

California 60%National 60%Georgia 59%

New Mexico 59%M a i n e 5 9 %

Missour 59% Wyoming 58%

North Carolina 58%Oklahoma 57%

Nevada 55%South Carolina 55%

D e l a w a r e 5 5 %Pensylvania 55%

Texas 55%Mississippi 55%

Indiana 54%Ohio 54%

Kentuky 54%Alabama 53%

Tennessee 53%Louisiana 53%

West Virginia 46%Arkansas 50%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

RECOVERY: 8 Projections of jobs and education requirements through 2020

Figure 6:Almost all states have current average attainment levels below those required for the jobs of the future.

Shortage(2020)*

Current Attainment (2020)

% Total Projections of demand (2020)

*Rough estimate of shortage

DC 71% Minnesota 69%

North Dakota 69%Colorado 68%

New Hampshire 68%Washington 68%

Kansas 67%Massachussets 66%

Connecticut 65%Oregon 65%

Utah 64%Maryland 64%Nebraska 64%

Virginia 63%Montana 63%

Wisconsin 62%Illinois 62%Hawaii 62%

South Dakota 62%Alaska 62%

New Jersey 62%Michigan 61%New York 61%

Vermont 61%Florida 61%

Idaho 61%Arizona 60%

Iowa 60%Rhode Island 60%

California 60%National 60%Georgia 59%

New Mexico 59%M a i n e 5 9 %

Missour 59% Wyoming 58%

North Carolina 58%Oklahoma 57%

Nevada 55%South Carolina 55%

D e l a w a r e 5 5 %Pensylvania 55%

Texas 55%Mississippi 55%

Indiana 54%Ohio 54%

Kentuky 54%Alabama 53%

Tennessee 53%Louisiana 53%

West Virginia 46%Arkansas 50%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

RECOVERY: 8 Projections of jobs and education requirements through 2020

Figure 6:Almost all states have current average attainment levels below those required for the jobs of the future.

Shortage(2020)*

Current Attainment (2020)

% Total Projections of demand (2020)

*Rough estimate of shortage

DC 71% Minnesota 69%

North Dakota 69%Colorado 68%

New Hampshire 68%Washington 68%

Kansas 67%Massachussets 66%

Connecticut 65%Oregon 65%

Utah 64%Maryland 64%Nebraska 64%

Virginia 63%Montana 63%

Wisconsin 62%Illinois 62%Hawaii 62%

South Dakota 62%Alaska 62%

New Jersey 62%Michigan 61%New York 61%

Vermont 61%Florida 61%

Idaho 61%Arizona 60%

Iowa 60%Rhode Island 60%

California 60%National 60%Georgia 59%

New Mexico 59%M a i n e 5 9 %

Missour 59% Wyoming 58%

North Carolina 58%Oklahoma 57%

Nevada 55%South Carolina 55%

D e l a w a r e 5 5 %Pensylvania 55%

Texas 55%Mississippi 55%

Indiana 54%Ohio 54%

Kentuky 54%Alabama 53%

Tennessee 53%Louisiana 53%

West Virginia 46%Arkansas 50%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

RECOVERY 2020 in Summary •  Most jobs will require applicants to have postsecondary

education and training beyond high school. •  More jobs will be available as baby boomers begin to retire. •  The fastest growing fields will be in STEM, healthcare

professions, healthcare support, and community services. •  Employers will be looking for cognitive skills such as active

listening, ability to communicate well, and critical thinking. •  Despite the existing variation between states’ educational

attainment, nearly all states will need to boost their rates of postsecondary education

For more information:

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See the full report at: cew.georgetown.edu/recovery2020/