Record Linkage at the Minnesota Population Center
description
Transcript of Record Linkage at the Minnesota Population Center
Record Linkage at the Minnesota Population Center
Ron Goeken, Lap Huynh, Tom Lenius, and Rebecca Vick
RecordLink Workshop, 2010University of Guelph , May 24th 2010
Introduction
• Overview of linkage process– Prelims vs. final releases
• Name commonness scores• Error rate estimation• Weights• Looking ahead
Historical Record Linkage – U.S.
1850 1% sample1860 1% sample1870 1% sample
1880 complete-count 1900 1% sample1910 1% sample1920 1% sample1930 1% sample
Historical Record Linkage at the MPC
• Primary goals are to create linked sets that are– Representative – Accurate
Historical Record Linkage at the MPC
• Representative links– We use a very limited set of variables to predict
links to avoid linkage biasBlock by birthplace, sex and raceGiven (first) nameSurname (last) nameAge
Historical Record Linkage at the MPC
• Accurate links– If there is more than one ‘potential’ link for a
given person we exclude them all– We throw away a lot of potential links
Historical Record Linkage at the MPC
• Create given and surname and age similarity scores– Jaro-Winkler string similarity algorithm– 20% age difference score
• We apply name and age similarity thresholds to limit output of potential links
Additional Variables Based on Age
• Age– Age difference (absolute value , normalized)*– Age categories, in five-year groups*
Additional Variables Based on Name
• Phonetic Match (binary)– Double Metaphone– NYSIIS*
• Middle initials (if present) must not conflict (binary)*
Additional Variables Based on Name
• Name Commonness Scores*– Our answer to incorporating probabilistic information
into the process without complete standardization of all name strings.
– Proportion of records (by race, birthplace, and sex) in the 1880 data with a Jaro-Winkler score greater than 0.9
– Name commonness score works in tandem with a birthplace density measure, which is the proportion of 1880 records for specific birthplaces (by race and sex)
Classification of links• Comparisons that beat the thresholds become
‘potential links’ that are classified as ‘true’ and ‘false’ links by two SVM models– One model includes age variables, the other does not*
• Link is accepted if both models call it a ‘true’ link and there are no conflicts
Name CommonnessTable 6. Distribution of 1870 Records (Males) by Name Commonness Scores
Linkage Rate by Name Commonness
Linkage Rates by Name Commonness and Birthplace Population Size
Linkage Rates by Name Commonness and Birthplace Population Size
Table 8. Linkage Rate for Native-Born 1870 Males by Birthplace Rank (number of males by birthplace) and Name Commonness Scores
Occupational Scores and Name Commonness
Estimating error rates
• Calculate migration rates by different slices of data, e.g. five-year age cats, age difference
• Split brothers• Compare link made in one dataset to link
made in another for same group of people• Compare to linked set made by another
independent source: Pleiades
Selected Linked Household – 1870-1880
LINKTYPE LAST70 FIRST70 LAST80 FIRST80 RELATE70 RELATE80 AGE70 AGE80
household UNDERWOOD NORMAN Head 52
household UNDERWOOD
MARY UNDERWOOD
MARY Spouse Head 33 49
household UNDERWOOD LUTHER Son 11
household UNDERWOOD IRVING UNDERWOOD ERVIN Son Son 3 13
primary UNDERWOOD VANDER UNDERWOOD VANDER Son Son 1 10
household UNDERWOOD ROSA Daughtr 18
household UNDERWOOD UNDERWOOD CHARLES Son 8
household UNDERWOOD UNDERWOOD ADDI Daughtr 5
Weights
• The weights are based on the linkable population, which is always based on the terminal census year data.
• Based on an iterative process• We capped weight minimums and maximums
(min is 1/5 the avg. weight for the subgroup; max is 4 times the avg. weight for subgroup)
Final Release Data Set Size, Males
MALEnat-b white for-b white af-am
1850 7013 299 821860 10426 634 2351870 17725 879 21801900 18596 1515 13341910 14855 995 7911920 10050 511 5041930 9018 336 352
Final Release Data Set, Females
FEMALEnat-b white
married single Formerly1850 1077 468 7981860 2253 1495 8431870 4254 6700 11341900 3274 4241 11621910 1891 1407 11241920 793 849 8941930 221 700 545
Final Release Data Set Size, Couples
COUPLEnat-b white for-b white af-am
1850 2135 227 61860 4538 932 191870 8862 2267 4071900 7745 2132 1801910 4650 1101 1021920 2107 416 261930 612 105 7
Looking Ahead
• Hope to alleviate small N problem in the future– Link 1900 and 1930 5% samples to 1800 complete
count– 1850 complete count database currently under
construction – Hope to have complete count data for 1860, 1870,
and 1900 in the future