Reconnecting the Public with the European Union

The role of referendums

Referendums as high quality engagement?

• Chance for high quality democracy • Citizens can reflect on relationship with EU• Consider various views• Calmly reflect upon evidence • Vote in the referendum on the relationship they

want with the EU• Referendums allow for direct democracy • Clearly allow citizens to have a say on the EU issue

Referendums as just more party politics?

• Not a chance for high quality deliberation • Voters don’t think about the EU in an ‘EU

referendum’• Use referendum as way to ‘protest vote’ against the

government• OR just follow party lines• Hence, can’t defend referendums as a way of

‘connecting with the public’ on the EU issue

Which interpretation is correct?

• Look at the case of the Republic of Ireland

• Recent referendums on – Nice Treaty – Lisbon Treaty– Fiscal Compact Treaty

• Look at lessons to be learned from these cases

Lesson 1: Campaigning Matters

• Nice Treaty rejected and then passed in a second referendum

• Nice 1: very low intensity campaign – Politicians not active– Not much media coverage– Low levels public knowledge

• Nice 2: very high intensity campaign – Politicians very active– A lot of media coverage– High levels of public knowledge

Lesson 1: Campaigning Matters

• Survey evidence from Nice 1 and Nice 2

• EU issues more important than ‘party politics’ at both referendums

• BUT issues a lot more important than ‘party politics’ at Nice 2

• More intense campaigning, more likely issues matter

• Intense campaigning makes issues more important and hence more democratic ‘connection’ with voters

Lesson 2: Different ‘levels’ of EU issues

• Substantive EU issues may be of two types

• Ideological – Underlying attitudes: Euro-sceptic v. Euro-enthusiast

• Specific issues– Distinct economic, cultural or defence issues– Specific issue relating to the particular EU treaty or the

specific reason for holding the referendum

Lesson 2: Different ‘levels’ of EU issues

• Lisbon Treaty rejected and then passed in a second referendum

• Survey evidence compared the relative importance of ideology and specific issues

• Specific issues more important than underlying ideology

• Evidence for democratic engagement rather than merely reliance on underlying ideology?

Lesson 3: Emotions and Voting in EU Referendums

• Distinct negative emotions

• Anger vs. fear

• Fear: deliberation, calm reflection, learning to address threat and minimise bad consequences

• Anger: Moral thinking, blame whoever is responsible, punish them when voting

Lesson 3: Emotions and Voting in EU Referendums

• Fiscal Compact Treaty

• Ireland bankrupt

• Lots of scope for anger and fear

• Anger: protest against government, party politics

• Fear: rationally consider the implication of passing/rejecting the treaty

Lesson 3: Emotions and Voting in EU Referendums

• Survey evidence

• Angry citizens more likely to rely on protest/ party politics voting

• Fearful/ anxious voters more likely to rely on issue-based voting

• Anxiety driven voting is more ‘democratic’, more in line with voting on relevant EU issues

Northern Ireland and the EU issue

• Would people vote on EU issue or on usual party politics

• Difficult test case given predominance of the ‘ethno-national issue’

• BUT the EU issue does drive voting when the context makes the EU important...

• European Parliament elections

• Drives choice between Sinn Fein and SDLP

Northern Ireland and the EU issue

• So, at least some scope for it to play a distinct and independent role...

• ...when the context makes it the important issue AND a clear choice is provided