Recommendations to Inform Development of a Climate Change Adaptation Strategy for the Lake Simcoe Watershed

Allan Douglas1, Chris Lemieux2, Gary Nielsen3, Paul Gray3, and Vidya Anderson4

1Ontario Centre for Climate Impacts and Adaptation Resources, 2 University of Waterloo, 3 Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources, 4 Ontario Ministry of the Environment

An Adaptive Management Framework

Step 1: Establish Baselines:

Climate, Flora, Fauna

Step 2: Develop Scenarios for: Climate, Socio-

economics

Step 3: Assess vulnerability of

Natural Assets and Human Society to Climate Change

Step 4: Identify and

Evaluate Adaptation Options

Step 5: Implement Adaptation

Options

Step 6: Monitor for Change

and Adapt as Needed

We are here

P. Gray, MNR, 2011

•Build team and engage experts

•Identify sectors that are pertinent to the assessment

•List indicators associated with each area of focus

•List metrics which provide information on the state of the indicator

•List targets to the different indicators to help set goals and determine levels of management actions

Step 1: Build Team, Engage Experts

and Identify Indicators

•Determine what the indicators suggest about the state of each area of focus/sector

•Determine how the climate has changed within the watershed

•Determine if a change in climate contributed to a change in the indicators

•Establish to what extent indicators are exposed or sensitive to climate

•Determine what adaptive measures have been introduced in the past and how effective they were

•Determine how resilient the components of the system are

Step 2:Access Current Vulnerability

•Determine future scenarios for non-climate stressors and review their connection to climatic factors

•Develop future climate scenarios to determine how the key climate attributes may change into the future

Step 3:Estimate Future Scenarios for Both Climate and Non-

Climate Stressors

•Determine vulnerability to future climate variability/change (based on existing stressors, vulnerabilities and projections of future climate)

•Prioritize the vulnerabilities posed by climate change

Step 4:Estimate Future Vulnerability

•Develop a policy Delphi survey that will gather adaptation recommendations from available expertise

•Informed by the vulnerability assessment reports, poll experts for adaptation responses

Step 5:Develop a method to

generate adaptation ideas using a Policy Delphi

•Develop a ranking system to evaluate adaptation recommendations for priority, affordability and ease of implementation

•Evaluate the responses to highlight common themes and to remove duplication

•Undertake measures to improve adaptive capacity

Step 6: Evaluate adaptation recommendations

•Decide who is responsible for implementing adaptive measures

•Determine who will fund the adaptive measures

•Determine the timing of the launch of the measure

•Determine how the adaptive actions will be measured

Step 7: Implementation of Adaptive Measures

Step 1:• 11 themes requiring adaptation measures selected• The availability of expertise had a significant bearing

on the selection of areas in inquiry

Step 2:• Using a guiding framework, experts assessed the

vulnerability of system components (both natural and built) to the impacts of climate variability and climate change in the context of current climate system stresses

Step 3:• Modelled projections indicate air temperature

increases of 1.1 to 6.4 °C depending on future GHG emissions issues

Step 4:• Using the Policy Delphi method, the planning team

developed the questions for the Delphi questionnaire

Step 5:• Survey contained 11 questions organized according

to seven general categories

Step 6:• More than 80 people contributed 900 ideas and

suggestions, which were transformed into 30 recommendations to inform development of the climate change action plan

Step 7:• To be completed!

Climate Change Adaptation Planning ProcessPolicy 7.11 of the Lake Simcoe Protection Plan commits the Ontario

Ministries of the Environment (MOE), Natural Resources (MNR) and other partners to develop a climate change adaptation strategy for the Lake Simcoe watershed, by June 2011. The strategy is to identify key recommended adaptation actions needed to increase the resiliency of the Lake Simcoe watershed to the impacts of climate change; identify roles and responsibilities for relevant parties; and identify potential amendments to the Plan to ensure the recommended actions are undertaken. The policy further prescribes the following tasks to be undertaken as a minimum:

1. Assess and evaluate the risk from climate change impacts on the watershed NRCan, 2000

Lake Simcoe Watershed

2. Promote, conduct and support additional research to better understand the impacts of climate change in the watershed, including impacts on wetlands, aquatic life, terrestrial species and ecosystems, headwaters, conservation of life cycles, ground water temperature and levels.

3. Develop an integrated climate change monitoring program to inform decision making and model the impacts of climate change on the water shed, and

4. Begin the development of climate change adaptation plans and promote the building of a Lake Simcoe watershed community of practice in adaptation planning.

Background Information

STRATEGIC PLANNING • The implementation of all recommendations in the Lake Simcoe Protection Plan will significantly improve the environmental health and ecological resilience of the

Watershed to the impacts of climate change.

LEGISLATION and POLICY• Climate change should be integrated into species at risk assessments and Species at Risk Act (SARA) recovery strategies.

ENABLERS (including PRINCIPLES)• Adaptive management should be a principle embedded in all climate change related planning. As a case in point, given the uncertainty of climate change impacts

in the future, constant monitoring and re-evaluation of decisions will enhance a community’s chances of success.

Examples of First Order Priority Recommendations