Recent Progress on High Impact Weather Forecast with GOES‐R and Advanced IR Soundings

Jun Li1, Jinlong Li1, Jing Zheng1, Tim Schmit2, and Hui Liu3

1 University of Wisconsin-Madison2 Center for Satellite Applications and Research, NESDIS/NOAA

3 National Center for Atmospheric Research

Warn-on-Forecast and High Impact Weather Workshop08 – 09 Feb 2012, Norman, OK

Outline• Prepare for GOES-R high temporal water vapor

measurements for high impact weather (HIW) forecasting through data assimilation;– MODIS TPW, AMSR-E TPW, and GOES Sounder PW as proxy– WRF/DART, WRF/3DVAR

• Improve high impact weather forecasts with advanced IR soundings;

• Verify impact with in-situ measurements, hurricane track and intensity observations, GOES Imager, and microwave measurements;

• 2012 plan – value added impact on HIW forecasts with advanced IR soundings when combining GOES-R and polar sounders.

Typhoon Sinlaku (2008)

Sinlaku PathSinlaku rapid intensification (9 – 10 September 2008) observed

1. Prepare for GOES-R high temporal water vapor measurements for high impact weather forecasting through data assimilation

Terra TPW

Aqua TPW

AMSR-E TPW

Terra MODIS (upper left), Aqua MODIS (lower left) and AMSR-E (upper right) TPW images over ocean for 10 September 2008. The spatial resolution is 5 km for MODIS TPW and 17 km for AMSR-E TPW.

CTLAMSR-E TPWMODIS TPWObs

GOES-R LAP algorithm improves operational MODIS TPW product; the new MODIS TPW with GOES-R algorithm will be used in 2012 HIW studies

MYD07GOES-R Alg.

GOES Sounder

GOES-R ABI

GOES Sounder (left) and GOES-R ABI (right) water vapor weighting functions

GOES RegGOES Phy

9

GOES (W11+E13), +/- 5min

06:00

05:30

06:30

05:55

06:05

n = 10112=9207(E13)+905(W11)

Hourly Precipitation Forecasts in Early Stage

2012/5/10 01 Z ~ 2012/5/10 12 Z

Forecast with Conventional data

OBS Forecast with GOES Sounder

Hourly precipitation forecast from 00 Z – 12 Z 05-10-2010 over CONUS with WRF/3DVAR, model resolution is 12 km, GOES Sounder 300 – 700 hPa precipitable water (PW) is used every 3 hours (preliminary results).

Cumulative precipitation forecast from 00Z to 06 Z 05-10-2010 over CONUS with WRF/3DVAR, model resolution is 12 km, GOES Sounder 300 – 700 hPa precipitable water (PW) is used every 3 hours (preliminary results).

ObservationForecast withGOES Sounder

Forecast withConventional

AIRS (10 August 2009) CrIS (20 January 2012) global coverage

(provided by Dave Tobin – CIMSS/SSEC)

2. Improve high impact weather with advanced IR soundings

(K)

(K)

AIRS 500 hPa atmospheric temperatures in clear skies (06 September 2008) for hurricane Ike

OBSCTLAIRS-TQHurricane at 2008090606

CTLAIRS-TQ

CTL: radiosondes, satellite winds, pilot report, GPS, ship, profiler, surface observations AIRS-TQ: CTL + AIRS-TQ

AIRS soundings provide value-added information to conventional observations(Track forecast RMSE for hurricane Ike - 2008)

AIRS single FOV soundings in clear skies are used. WRF/3DVAR (12 km resolution) forecasting and assimilation system is used. Assimilation is done every 6 hours. 0-h is from analysis, others are forecasts (06 UTC 06 September 2008 – 00 UTC 10 September 2008).

72-hour ensemble forecasts – Hurricane Irene (2011) (from 06 UTC 23 to 00 UTC 25 August 2011)

CTLAIRSObs

Assimilation method: WRF/DART with 36 km resolutionControl (CTL): assimilate radiosonde, satellite cloud winds, QuikSCAT winds, aircraft data, COSMIC GPS refractivity, ship, and land surface data;AIRS: CTL + AIRS temperature and moisture soundings

Irene (2011) track forecasts Irene (2011) sea level pressure forecasts

Central sea level pressure forecast RMSE - Hurricane Irene (2011)(06 UTC 23 to 00 UTC 25 August 2011)

CTL run: assimilate radiosonde, satellite cloud winds, QuikSCAT winds, aircraft data, COSMIC GPS refractivity, ship, and land surface data.AIRS run: CTL + AIRS soundings

CTLAIRS

Assimilation method: WRF/DART with 36 km resolution

AMSR-E TPW(090716 - 090719) TPW forecast (090718) with GTS

TPW forecasts with GTS and AIRS

(mm) (mm)

(mm)TPW forecast RMSE using collocated AMSR-E as reference ((06 UTC 06 September – 00 UTC 10 September))

No AIRSWith AIRS

3. Verify impact – using AMSR-E TWP

Impact of sounding bias correction on

TC forecasts

Track forecast RMSE for hurricane Ike (2008) (06 UTC 06 September – 00 UTC 10 September)

AIRS no BCAIRS with BC

4. Summary and 2012 plans• GOES Sounder, MODIS, AMSR-E TPW as proxy for GOES-R

shows positive impact on HIW forecasts;• Advanced IR soundings provide positive impact on tropical cyclone

intensity and track analysis/forecasts;• WRF/DART and WRF/3DVAR provide consistent results;• 2012 plans on HIW studies

– Use GSI to emulate operational environment; focus on using GOES Sounder for preparing GOES-R applications;

– Study value added impact with advanced IR soundings (radiances or retrievals) on HIW forecasts when combining GOES-R and polar-orbiting sounders;

– Continue collaboration with ESRL RAP modeling group;– Collaborate with JPSS sounding team (Chris Barnet) on using AIRS/CrIS

(including AMSU and ATMS).