Recent Economic Developments · 2020. 5. 1. · To this end, the Government will strengthen...
Transcript of Recent Economic Developments · 2020. 5. 1. · To this end, the Government will strengthen...
Recent Economic Developments- Monthly Economic Report, February 20 2020 -
March 4, 2020
Cabinet OfficeGovernment of Japan
Contact for inquiries:Directorate General for Economic Research
+81-3-6257-1567
(Unchanged)
(Changed)
February
<Assessment of the current state of the Japanese economy>
January The Japanese economy is recovering at a moderate pace,while weakness mainly among manufacturers is increasingfurther, as exports are continuing in a weak tone.
The Japanese economy is recovering at a moderate pace,while increased weakness mainly among manufacturers iscontinuing, as exports remain in a weak tone.
December The Japanese economy is recovering at a moderate pace,while weakness mainly among manufacturers is increasingfurther, as exports are continuing in a weak tone.
February
January
1
<Short-term prospects>
January
February
Weakness remains for the time being, but the economy is expected to continuerecovering, supported by the effects of the policies, while employment and incomesituation is improving. However, attention should be given to situations in overseaseconomies including the situations over trade issues,the prospect of the Chineseeconomy, the UK leaving the EU, and the state of affairs over the Middle East region,the effects of fluctuations in the financial and capital markets, and the situations of theconsumer sentiment after the consumption tax increase.
Weakness remains for the time being, but the economy is expected to continuerecovering, supported by the effects of the policies, while employment and incomesituation is improving. However, full attention should be given to effects of the NovelCoronavirus on the Japanese and overseas economies. Also, attention should be givento situations in overseas economies including the situations over trade issues and theeffects of fluctuations in the financial and capital markets.
December
Weakness remains for the time being, but the economy is expected to continuerecovering, supported by the effects of the policies, while employment and incomesituation is improving. However, attention should be given to situations in overseaseconomies including the situations over trade issues, the prospect of the Chineseeconomy and the UK leaving the EU, the effects of fluctuations in the financial andcapital markets, and the situations of the consumer sentiment after the consumption taxincrease.
2
The Government will make its utmost efforts to ensure the economy overcomes deflation and achieve economic revitalization and fiscalconsolidation simultaneously, in addition to make effort toward the reconstruction and revitalization from the Great East Japan Earthquakeand the restoration and reconstruction from the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake.
To this end, the Government will strengthen economic growth by boosting potential growth rate and expand virtuous cycle of growthand distribution based on the "Basic Policy on Economic and Fiscal Management and Reform 2019", the "Action Plan of the GrowthStrategy" and so on. Moreover, in order to create a society in which everyone plays an active role and feels secure, the Government will establish the socialsecurity system for all generations.Furthermore, the Government will continue to pay careful attention to the economic trend after the consumption tax rate hike andimplement the FY2019 budget including the temporal and special measures steadily.
The Government will swiftly implement "Emergency Measures Regarding the Novel Coronavirus" (February 13th, the NovelCoronavirus Response Headquarters decision), and continue to pay careful attention to its effect on the economy and take all possiblemeasures. The Government will implement "Comprehensive Economic Measures to Create a Future with Security and Growth" and theFY2019 supplementary budget swiftly and steadily to accelerate the restoration and reconstruction of the areas affected by the successivenatural disasters, to overcome the downside risks originated from the overseas economies such as the Novel Coronavirus certainly, and toachieve sustainable economic growth led by private sector demand. The Government will work for early passage of the FY2020 budget andthe related bills.
The Government expects the Bank of Japan to achieve the price stability target of two percent in light of economic activity, prices andfinancial conditions.
<Policy stance>(Monthly Economic Report, February 20, 2020)
3
The real GDP (Gross Domestic Product) for the Oct.-Dec. 2019 period (First preliminary) decreased by1.6%(or at an annualized -6.3%) from the previous quarter.
While public demand increased steadily, domestic demand contributed negatively due to the weakness inprivate demand. Net exports contributed positively due to the weak imports.
- GDP: Oct. – Dec. 2019 (First Preliminary) -
Contribution of real GDP growth rateChanges and contributions to changes in real GDP(seasonally adjusted)
Note: Quarterly data is quarter-to-quarter change.Source: Cabinet Office.
%2018Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
Oct. - Dec. Jan. - Mar. Apr. - Jun. Jul. - Sep. Oct. - Dec.0.5 0.6 0.5 0.1 -1.6
[2.1] [2.6] [1.9] [0.5] [-6.3]
(1.5) (0.4) (1.0) (0.2) (0.8) (0.4) (-2.1)
(1.4) (0.2) (0.9) (0.2) (0.4) (0.2) (-2.2)
Private Consumption 1.1 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.6 0.5 -2.9Private Non-ResidentialInvestment 4.3 1.7 4.3 -0.5 0.8 0.5 -3.7
Private ResidentialInvestment -1.4 -4.9 1.7 1.5 -0.2 1.2 -2.7
Changes in PrivateInventories(Contributions)
(0.2) (0.0) (0.0) (0.2) (-0.1) (-0.2) (0.1)
(0.1) (0.2) (0.1) (0.0) (0.4) (0.2) (0.1)
Public Investment 0.5 0.6 -1.3 2.1 1.8 1.2 1.1
(0.5) (-0.1) (-0.4) (0.5) (-0.3) (-0.3) (0.5)
6.4 1.6 1.6 -1.9 0.4 -0.7 -0.13.9 2.2 4.3 -4.3 2.0 0.7 -2.6
0.1 1.2 0.5 0.5 -1.2
[0.6] [4.8] [2.1] [1.9] [-4.9]
2019
Private Demand(Contributions)
Public Demand(Contributions)
Net Exports(Contributions)
Nominal GDPgrowth rate
Real GDP growth rate1.9 0.3
[at annual rate]Domestic Demand
(Contributions)
FY2017 FY2018
2.0 0.1[at annual rate]
ExportsImports
-0.8
0.5 0.6 0.5
0.1
-1.6
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ2018 19
Exports
Public demand
Private consumption
Business investment
Imports
The others
Real GDP growth rate
s.a.,Q on Q, contribution, %
QuarterYear
4
Private consumption decreased by 2.9% with the reactionary downturn due to the consumption taxrate hike. However, the rush demand and its reactionary downturn are likely to be smaller than the case in 2014.
According to the Household Survey, there are one-off factors which reduced spending. (1) Implementation of planned suspensions of trains and decrease in number of business days due to Typhoon Hagibis, (2) Poor sales of seasonal products due to warm temperatures, and (3) Lower number of holidays (especially on December 23) have caused downward push.
- Private Consumption (1) -
Source: Cabinet Office; Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications.
Private consumption (GDP)
0.4
-0.1
2.0
-4.8
0.0
0.6 0.5
-2.9
-6.0
-5.0
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ
2013 14
Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
2019
2013-2014
2019
QuarterYearQuarterYear
Tax rate hike
q/q, %
0.8 1.0
9.5
-5.1
-2.0
-4.8
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
7 8 9 10 11 12
2019
MonthYear
Tax rate hike
y/y, %Real household consumption (Household survey)
①
②
③
Factors of decrease in consumption other than the
reactionary downturn.(1)Typhoon Hagibis(2)Warm temperature(3)Lower number of holidays
In September 2018, negative growth was caused by earthquake in Hokkaido and typhoon in Kinki(-1.5%(y/y)).
5
Sales at supermarkets show steady performance partly due to the effects of the reduced consumption tax rate.
Sales of home appliances have been picking up since October, and have been positive since January.
- Private Consumption (2) -
Source: Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry.
Sales at supermarkets (weekly data) Sales of 5 home appliances (weekly data)
13.3
-0.5
1.8
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
123412345123412341234512341234512341234123451234
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2
(2019~2020)
Tax rate hike
y/y, same day of the week, %
WeekMonth
119.7
-2.6
0.9 -16.3 -5.6
-5.2
12.2
-60
-30
0
30
60
90
120
150
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4
7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2
Tax rate hike
(2/17~2/23)
WeekMonth
(2019~2020)
Monthly average
y/y, %
6
It is important to understand the consumption of services, which accounts for more than 50% of private consumption. Sales of eating out declined in October, but after that, have been increasing for the third consecutive month.
Travel was pushed down by bad weather in summer and Typhoon Hagibis in October, however, the number of travelers during the year-end and New Year holidays increased partly due to favorable calender effect(Saturday and Sunday, January 4th and 5th).
- Private Consumption (3) -
Source: Japan Foodservice Association; Railway Passenger Association ; Cabinet Office
Sales of eating out Travel handling volume
Year-end and New Year's transportation (2019/12/27-2020/1/5)
4.0
-2.4
1.9
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1
2019 20
y/y, %
MonthYear
Tax rate hike
Typhoon
y/y
Railway (Number of passengers) 2.4%
Plane (Number of passengers) 6.7%
Expressway(Number of vehicles used) 4.4%
58.9
30.830
34
38
42
46
50
50
54
58
62
66
70
8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1
18 19 20
2011=100
10 consecutiveholidays
10 consecutive holidays
Long rainTyphoonTyphoon・Earthquakes
Typhoon The Novel Coronavirus
Overseas(left scale)
MonthYear
Domestic(left scale)
7
13.6
-25.1
-12.1 -9.8
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2
2019 20
y/y,%
MonthYear
Automobile sales continued to decline by double-digits year-on-year after November. However,according to the hearing, there are several one–off factors other than the reactionary downturn due tothe consumption tax rate hike. Production and sales of new automobiles that had been suspended due toparts failure, resumed and new models went on sale in February.
Sales of department stores dealing in high-value items such as jewelry, were affected by typhoons,warm temperature in addition to the reactionary downturn. However, the decline in year-on-year salesgrowth eased toward the end of the year.
- Private Consumption (4) -
Source: Japan Automobile Dealers Association; Japan Light motor Vehicle and Motorcycle Association; Japan Department Store Association
Sales in department storesNew automobile sales
Factors of decline since October(hearing from industry associations)
(1)Factors of individual companies (discontinuation of production ofsome models due to parts failure)
(2)The number of business days decreased due to typhoons in October.(3)Refraining from buying in anticipation of new models after
December.
23.1
▲ 17.5
▲ 5.0
▲ 3.1
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1
2019 20
Tax rate hike
Typhoon effectabout -5.4%
(from IR information)
Holidays effectabout -3.8%
(from IR information)
MonthYear
y/y,%
Recovery trend with new models
in February
8
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7
2013 14 15 16 17 18 19
Month
CY
y/y, %
Employment situation is improving while labor shortage continues. The highest level of wage increases has been achieved for six consecutive years. The 2019 winter
bonus is at a high level. Both the number of employees and the salary of employees have been increasing. As a result, real
wage income of employees has been higher than a year ago.
- Employment Situation -
Source: Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare; Japan Business Federation; Japanese Trade Union Confederation; Cabinet Office
Unemployment rate and active job opening-to-applicants ratio
Winter bonus( 2,000 unions)
Winter bonus( Major private companies )
Real wage income of employees
1.49
1.07
2.4
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
3.2
3.4
3.6
3.8
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
1 4 7101 4 7101 4 7101 4 7101 4 7101 4 7101
2014 15 16 17 18 19 20
Month
CY
Active job opening-to-applicants ratio
Active job opening-to-applicants ratio(Regular employees)
s.a., %s.a., ratio
Unemployment rate(right scale)
66.1
70.0 71.4
60
63
66
69
72
75
2017 18 19 year
ten thousand yen
88.1
93.5 95.1
83
86
89
92
95
98
2017 18 19 year
ten thousand yen
9
Private consumption is picking up while employment and income situation is improving. However, fullattention should be given to effects of the Novel Coronavirus on private consumption.
The analysis of medium- to long-term factors below is also required.
- Private Consumption and Employment Situation-
< Medium- to long-term challenges>
• Increase in elderly households• Expansion of online sales• Spread of the Sharing economy
1.Structural changes in consumption
• Decrease in young people's car purchases• Spread of the Car sharing
2.Turning point in the automotive market aonce-in-a-thousand-year
< Short-term challenges>
Effects of the Novel Coronavirus
10
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 12017 18 19 20
EU
AsiaU.S.
World
s.a., CY2015=100, 3MA
Month
CY
Exports volumne index by region
January World Asia U.S. EU
Month to month -1.5% -1.7% -0.6% -0.9%(Export-share) (53.3%) (20.1%) (10.6%)
Due to the slowdown of overseas economies, exports remain in a weak tone. Although exports to Asia, mainly China, showed a sign of bottoming out due to the global restoration
of IT related demand until last December, there are new concerns related to the Novel Coronavirusemerged in addition to a fall caused by the Lunar New Year effect.
Industrial production remains in a weak tone due to weak exports and Typhoon Hagibis, whileproduction of electronic parts and devices are picking up.
As for short-term prospects, production has been expected to pick up with the restoration of thesupply-chain, and growth of semiconductor demand. However, attention should be given to effects ofthe Novel Coronavirus.
- Export & Industrial Production -
Production by Industry
Sources: Ministry of Finance; Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
88
90
92
94
96
98
100
102
104
106
1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 4 7 10 1 317 18 19 20
Forecasts.a., CY2015 = 100, 3MA
IIP(total)
Production machinery(Right scale)
Transport equipment(Right scale)
Electronic parts and devices(Right scale)
Month
CY
IIP(total, single month)
11
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
92
96
100
104
108
112
116
120
124
128
132
136
1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 12
2018 19
s.a,CY2015=100 s.a,billion yen
MonthCY
Construction(right scale)
Machinery
Machinery and Construction(non-residential)
Business investment decreased by 3.7% in the October-December quarter. There is a possibility thatinvestment in machinery and construction to enhance production capacity was held back due to theweakness in exports and production. Also, there was an impact of Typhoon Hagibis that delayed theproduction and shipment of some capital goods.
Both construction investments and machinery investments are increasing in December. Due to the labor shortage, software investment contributing to labor savings has been increasing year-
on-year basis, suggesting a response to the Society 5.0.
- Business investment & Corporate Profits (1) -
5.75.3
3.6
▲ 3
▲ 2
▲ 1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 12
2018 19
MonthCY
y/y,%
Software investment
Sources: Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism
12
Investment in the business investment plan based on the Tankan (December survey) increased 5% year-on-year.
High level of corporate profits support investments. However, careful attention should be given to theweakness mainly among manufacturers and the effects of the Novel Coronavirus on business activities.
0
2
4
6
8
10
Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
2017 18 19
QuarterCY
tril. yen
0
2
4
6
8
10
Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
2017 18 19
QuarterCY
tril. yen
- Business investment & Corporate Profits (2) -
Planned business investment for FY2019 (“Tankan” survey)
0
2
4
6
8
All industries Manufacturing Nonmanufacturing
y/y,%
+5.0%+5.4%
+4.7%
Source: Bank of Japan, NIKKEI NEEDS
Ordinary profit of listed companies
Non-manufacturing
Manufacturing
13
Housing investment is in a weak tone recently.
Housing construction starts
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 12
2012 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
s.a., tril.yen, 3MA
Month
CY
Source: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure,Transport and Tourism.
Public investment shows steady performance.
Amount of public construction completed
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1
2013 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Owner-occupied housing(right scale)
Housing for rent(right scale)
Housing for sale(right scale)
Total
s.a., ann., thousand units, 3MA s.a., ann., thousand units, 3MA
Month
CY
14
CPI(Consumer Price Index)
Consumer prices are rising at a slower tempo recently.
98.5
99.0
99.5
100.0
100.5
101.0
101.5
102.0
4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 12014 15 16 17 18 19 20
s.a.,CY2015=100
Core CPI (less fresh food)
Core-core CPI(less fresh food and energy)
CPI
MonthCY
sources: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications.
43.4
41.9
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 12019 20
(DI)
Tax rate hike-related
Total
MonthCY
Tax rate hike
Economy Watchers Survey
DI of those who comment on the tax rate hike,is above the total DI in January.
sources: Cabinet Office
15
Economic Impacts of the Novel Coronavirus
March 4, 2020
Cabinet OfficeGovernment of Japan
The effects of the Novel Coronavirus could depress the Japanese economy through the followingchannels. (1)Decrease in inbound tourism, (2)Decrease in exports especially to China, (3) effectsthrough supply chain, (4)Slowdown in global economy due to slowdown in China, and(5)Precautionary(restrained) response of household consumption.
- Effects of the Novel Coronavirus (1) -
Sources: Ministry of Finance; Japan National Tourism Organization; IMF; National Bureau of statistics of China.Notes: SARS is an abbreviation for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome.
Machinery3.4 tril. yen
(23.1%)
Electrical machinery3.0 tril. yen
(20.7%)Chemicals2.5 tril. yen
(17.3%)
Manufactured goods1.7 tril. yen
(11.4%)
Transport equipment1.5 tril. yen
(10.3%)
Others2.5 tril. yen
(17.2%)
Total14.7 tril. yen
Japan’s imports from China by products (2019)
Japan’s exports to China by products(2019)
2003 2019
Exports to China(tril. yen) 6.6 14.7
Share in total exports 12.2% 19.1%
As a percent of GDP 1.3% 2.7%
Electrical machinery5.3 tril. yen
(28.7%)
Machinery3.4 tril. yen
(18.3%)Manufactured
goods2.2 tril. yen
(12.0%)
Chemicals1.2 tril. yen
(6.5%)
Transport equipment0.5 tril. yen
(2.6%)
Others5.9 tril. yen
(31.9%)
Total18.4 tril. yen
Of which,parts of
motor vehicle329 bil. yen
(1.8%)2019
China 36.9%
Other Asian countries 36.2%
Western Europe 14.2%
North America 5.9%
Others 6.8%
Share in imports ofparts of motor vehicles
(Total: 890 bil. yen)
The number of foreign tourists (2019)
China9.6 mil.(30.1%)
Korea5.6 mil.(17.5%)
Taiwan4.9 mil.(15.3%)
Hong Kong2.3 mil.(7.2%)
U.S.1.7mil.(5.4%)
Thailand1.3 mil.(4.1%)
Others6.5mil.(20.3%)
Total 31.9 mil.
2003 2019
The number of foreign tourists 5.2 31.9
Of which, from China 0.5 9.6
※Share in total imports: 23.5%
2018 2003(spread of SARS)
GDP 15.7% 4.3%
Goods exports 12.8% 5.8%
Goods imports 10.8% 5.2%
Number of Chinese outbound visitors
(person-times)160 mil. 20 mil.
Share of the Chinese economy in the world economy
(mil. people)
Inbound tourism consumption (2019) 4.8 tril. yen
Of which, by Chinese people
1.8 tril. Yen(36.8%)
1
Examples of corporate activities
According to IR information by large department store groups, a fall in year-on-year sales in January wasshrunk. However, February sales dropped due to a decrease in the number of customers (includinginbound tourists) that may be due to the Novel Coronavirus.
Many domestic companies have not yet been able to forecast the effects of the Novel Coronavirus. Onthe other hand, corporate information shows that production in China has not yet reached full-scale, andtransportation and shipping services are not recovered yet.
- Effects of the Novel Coronavirus (2) -
Sales of major department stores since January (y/y)
Note: In the figure on the left, the effect of the shift during the Lunar New Year period (February 4 to 10 in 2019 and January 24 to 30 in 2020) occurred in January and February. In 2020, the Chinese government extended the Lunar New Year period to February 2 to prevent the spread of the Novel Coronavirus.
Source: IR of individual companies.
CompanyA
Company B
Company C
Company D
Company E
Dec. -5.2% -4.7% -4.6% -1.3% -4.6%
Jan. -3.6% -3.6% -1.8% +1.8% -5.4%
Feb. -11.7% -15.3% -14.3% -31.6% -17.9%
(Car manufacturer A)
・Production will resume at three of the four Chinesefactories by February 18. The remaining one factorywill be reopened after the 24th. For the time being,all three factories will be operating at about 50% ofcapacity for the time being.
(Postal service B)・Since February 10 the aircraft between Japan and
China has been significantly suspended, it isexpected that it will take more than two weeks toload the cargo destined for China on the aircraft.
(Toy manufacturer C)・The production and shipment of electronic toys
produced in China has been delayed, and the toysare short in Japan.
2
Due to the impacts of SARS, China‘s nominal growth rate in 2003 declined by 0.5%, and East Asia and Southeast Asia declined by 0.6% (estimates of Asia Development Bank).
Due to the spread of SARS, the number of foreign visitors to Japan, the number of Japanese departing from Japan, and the sales of domestic travel in Japan decreased sharply from April to June 2003. As a result, private consumption and exports in the Apr.-Jun.2003 showed weaknesses.
- Economic Impacts of SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome)-
Background of the spread of SARS infection
Source: Cabinet Office; Japan Tourism Agency; ADB;WHO.
SARS impact on nominal GDP in 2003
The number of SARS patients(November 1, 2002-July 31, 2003)
The number of foreign visitors to Japanand the number of Japanese departing
the amount of domestictravel in Japan
Japan’s real GDP growth rate
region billion, USD GDP ratioChina -6.1 -0.5%
Hong Kong -4.6 -2.9%South Korea -0.3 -0.1%
Taiwan -1.3 -0.5%East Asia and Southeast
Asia -18.0 -0.6%
region infected people deathsChina 5,327 349
Hong Kong 1,755 299Taiwan 346 37
Singapore 238 33Canada 251 43
The others 181 13Total 8,098 774
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112
2003
y/y,%
MonthYear
・On November 16, 2002, the first case was identified in Guangdong, China.・
・
Infections have spread since mid-February 2003, and WHO advised in April to refrain from traveling to Guangdong, Hong Kong, Beijing, Shanxi and Toronto.WHO declared end on July 5 (approximately 8 months after initial case
confirmation).
-60-50-40-30-20-10
0102030
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112
2003
y/y,%
Foreign visitors
Japanese departing
MonthYear
1.10.3 2.6
1.5
4.52.8
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ
2002 03 04
s.a.,ann.,%
QuarterYear
Real growth rate
Private consumptionBusiness investment
Public demand
Exports
Imports
3