Recent changes in the debt sustainability framework, and non- concessional borrowing MDB Meeting on...
-
Upload
catherine-harris -
Category
Documents
-
view
214 -
download
0
Transcript of Recent changes in the debt sustainability framework, and non- concessional borrowing MDB Meeting on...
![Page 1: Recent changes in the debt sustainability framework, and non- concessional borrowing MDB Meeting on Debt Issues Washington, 6-7 May 2014 Benoit Chervalier,](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56649d9e5503460f94a8822d/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Recent changes in the debt sustainability framework,
and non-concessional borrowing
MDB Meeting on Debt Issues
Washington, 6-7 May 2014
Benoit Chervalier,Head, Resource Mobilization and External Finance
Division
![Page 2: Recent changes in the debt sustainability framework, and non- concessional borrowing MDB Meeting on Debt Issues Washington, 6-7 May 2014 Benoit Chervalier,](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56649d9e5503460f94a8822d/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
I. Diagnostics
II. Responses
III. Concluding remarks
Outline of the Discussion
![Page 3: Recent changes in the debt sustainability framework, and non- concessional borrowing MDB Meeting on Debt Issues Washington, 6-7 May 2014 Benoit Chervalier,](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56649d9e5503460f94a8822d/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
May 2000 November 2011
Background
![Page 4: Recent changes in the debt sustainability framework, and non- concessional borrowing MDB Meeting on Debt Issues Washington, 6-7 May 2014 Benoit Chervalier,](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56649d9e5503460f94a8822d/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
4
World’s 10 fastest growing economiesb
(annual average GDP growth, %)
2001–2010c
2011–2015d
Angola 11.1
China 9.5
China 10.5
India 8.2
Myanmar 10.3
Ethiopia 8.1
Nigeria 8.9
Mozambique 7.7
Ethiopia 8.4
Tanzania 7.2
Kazakhstan 8.2
Vietnam 7.2
Chad 7.9
Congo 7.0
Mozambique 7.9
Ghana 7.0
Cambodia 7.7
Zambia 6.9
Rwanda 7.6
Nigeria 6.8
a. The Economist, January 6, 2011.
b. Excluding countries with fewer than 10 million people.
c. 2010 estimate.
d. Forecast.
Diagnostics: A Rising Africa…
Between 2000 and 2010: 6 of the world’s 10 fastest growing economies were ADF Countries Average growth of more than 5%
![Page 5: Recent changes in the debt sustainability framework, and non- concessional borrowing MDB Meeting on Debt Issues Washington, 6-7 May 2014 Benoit Chervalier,](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56649d9e5503460f94a8822d/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Countries Status and Debt Relief Provided
HIPC MDRI
6,085
8,533
4,938
8,533
Debt relief committed Debt relief delivered
Debt relief under HIPC and MDRI has substantially alleviated debt burdens in recipient countries and has enabled them to increase their poverty-reducing expenditure by almost three and a half percentage points of GDP between 2001 and 2012
Classification of RMCs by HIPC Status (as at End-March 2014)
USD mm
![Page 6: Recent changes in the debt sustainability framework, and non- concessional borrowing MDB Meeting on Debt Issues Washington, 6-7 May 2014 Benoit Chervalier,](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56649d9e5503460f94a8822d/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
• Increased trend on accessing international capital markets
• Context of low interest rates
Diagnostics
Country Issue date Maturity (years)
Amount (USD mm)
Yield Subscr. (times)
Zambia Aug-12 7 750 5,625 % 16
Rwanda May-13 10 450 6.875 % 9
Nigeria Jul-13 10 500 6.625 % 4,5
Ghana Aug-13 10 1000 7.875 % 2,7
Country 10 year maturity Yield (end 2012)
10 year maturity Yield (end 2013)
United States 1.912 % 3.028 %
Germany 1.479 % 1.929 %
Italy 4.232 % 4.125 %
Portugal 6.329% 6.010%
Spain 5% 4.128%
![Page 7: Recent changes in the debt sustainability framework, and non- concessional borrowing MDB Meeting on Debt Issues Washington, 6-7 May 2014 Benoit Chervalier,](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56649d9e5503460f94a8822d/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
• Post-HIPC and MDRI countries are still constraint by Debt Sustainability Framework
• Need for resources but concessional aid (for Africa) is declining
Diagnostics
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Net ODA
Net ODA
![Page 8: Recent changes in the debt sustainability framework, and non- concessional borrowing MDB Meeting on Debt Issues Washington, 6-7 May 2014 Benoit Chervalier,](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56649d9e5503460f94a8822d/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
• Relative low risk of debt distress
• However some degree of vulnerability to exogenous shocks
Diagnostics
Country % GDP % Gov. Revenue Increase in debt level (% leave)
South Africa 0.1 0.5 0.3
Nigeria 0.2 0.6 1
Kenya 1.1 4.2 2.2
Ghana 1.2 5.5 2.1
Cameroon 1.8 9.6 10
Effect of Hypothetical $500mn Eurobond Issuance
![Page 9: Recent changes in the debt sustainability framework, and non- concessional borrowing MDB Meeting on Debt Issues Washington, 6-7 May 2014 Benoit Chervalier,](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56649d9e5503460f94a8822d/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
• Amend the Debt Sustainability Framework
• Measures to accompany countries in accessing to capital markets
• Graduation frameworks for smooth transition
• Innovative Financial instruments
Responses
![Page 10: Recent changes in the debt sustainability framework, and non- concessional borrowing MDB Meeting on Debt Issues Washington, 6-7 May 2014 Benoit Chervalier,](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56649d9e5503460f94a8822d/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
• More flexibility (debt limits)
• Smart Investments
RESPONSES: Debt Sustainability Framework
![Page 11: Recent changes in the debt sustainability framework, and non- concessional borrowing MDB Meeting on Debt Issues Washington, 6-7 May 2014 Benoit Chervalier,](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56649d9e5503460f94a8822d/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
• Implement measures to reduce effective borrowing costs
– Guarantees to extend debt maturities or Improve access to capital markets (e.g. ADF’s new Partial Credit Guarantee)
• Need to finance sustainable projects (financing infrastructure gap)
• Advisory services
Responses: Access to Financial Markets
![Page 12: Recent changes in the debt sustainability framework, and non- concessional borrowing MDB Meeting on Debt Issues Washington, 6-7 May 2014 Benoit Chervalier,](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56649d9e5503460f94a8822d/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
• Graduation policy
– Creditworthiness assessment exercise
– Differentiation among ADF countries under ADF 13
• Adoption in 2011 of the Transition Framework for countries changing status
Responses: Graduation
![Page 13: Recent changes in the debt sustainability framework, and non- concessional borrowing MDB Meeting on Debt Issues Washington, 6-7 May 2014 Benoit Chervalier,](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56649d9e5503460f94a8822d/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
• Amendments of the Credit Policy (currently under revision)
• Donor loans (IDA-17, WG ADF-13)
• Guarantees
Responses: Innovative Financial Instruments
![Page 14: Recent changes in the debt sustainability framework, and non- concessional borrowing MDB Meeting on Debt Issues Washington, 6-7 May 2014 Benoit Chervalier,](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56649d9e5503460f94a8822d/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Senegal
Zambia
Mozambique
Gabon
Namibia
Angola
EgyptMorocco
Nigeria
GhanaIvory Coast
Rwanda
Tanzania
African countries Issuing Bonds (2011-2013)
ADF Countries
ADB Countries
Africa bond issuance
2008 Lehman collapse2009 200 mn USD2010 4.8 bn USD 2011 1.5 bn USD 2012 4.3 bn USD 2013 9.6 bn USD
![Page 15: Recent changes in the debt sustainability framework, and non- concessional borrowing MDB Meeting on Debt Issues Washington, 6-7 May 2014 Benoit Chervalier,](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56649d9e5503460f94a8822d/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
• Exponential growth in the last 3 years
With an average spread of 563 basis points
African Countries accessing financial markets(excluding South Africa)
2011 2012 2013
1500
4265
9050
+2765
+4785
Total amount Issed (ADB+ADF)Variation
![Page 16: Recent changes in the debt sustainability framework, and non- concessional borrowing MDB Meeting on Debt Issues Washington, 6-7 May 2014 Benoit Chervalier,](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56649d9e5503460f94a8822d/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
ADB Countries accessing financial markets (excluding South Africa)
With an average spread of 503 basis points
2011 2012 2013
500
3328
5200
+2828
+1872
ADB Amounts Increase
![Page 17: Recent changes in the debt sustainability framework, and non- concessional borrowing MDB Meeting on Debt Issues Washington, 6-7 May 2014 Benoit Chervalier,](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56649d9e5503460f94a8822d/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
ADF Countries accessing financial markets
With an average spread of 650 basis points
2011 2012 2013
1000 937
3850
-63
+2913
ADF Amounts Variation
![Page 18: Recent changes in the debt sustainability framework, and non- concessional borrowing MDB Meeting on Debt Issues Washington, 6-7 May 2014 Benoit Chervalier,](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56649d9e5503460f94a8822d/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Concluding Remarks
• A crossroad: Opportunities and Risks
– Risks: growing domestic debt in many LICs; countries going to borrow from the capital market (rationale, where to invest, structural deficits)
– Opportunity for reforms: innovative approaches; accelerated graduation for some countries
• Adequate responses needed to ensure long term financial sustainability