Recent Birth Trends from a State and National Perspective: The

Case of Arizona

Presented by:

Khaleel S. Hussaini PhDBureau Chief, Public Health Statistics

http://www.azdhs.gov/phs/phstats/ http://www.azdhs.gov/plan/

Division of Public Health Preparedness

So what’s the story in Arizona?• Basic population structure of women of child-bearing age in Arizona is

different than the US.

• Declines in fertility rates, birth rates are not only attributable to individual fertility decisions but a variety of factors such as socio-cultural, politico-legal, and economic reasons.

• A recent report by the Pew Research Center linked the decline in fertility to the economic recession linking state-level economic decline with state-level fertility decline. (Livingston 2011).

• The report also found that Hispanics’ fertility rate fell more than other race-ethnic groups as this group were most affected by the recession.

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

General Fertility Rates for Arizona and the U.S. 2000-2011

AZ (15-44 yrs) US (15-44 yrs) AZ (15-19 yrs) US (15-19 yrs)

Ra

te p

er

10

00

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

1.98 1.94 1.881.77

1.86 1.84

3.25 3.25

2.98

2.66

2.24 2.23

Total Fertility Rates (TFR) for Hispanics and Non-Hispanics Arizona Residents

All others Hispanic

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

84985 8521387379

90783 9339695798

10

20

42

10

26

87 99215

92616

87053 85190 85725

0.00% 0.27%

2.54%

3.90%

2.88%2.57%

6.52%

0.63%

-3.38%

-6.65%-6.01%

-2.14%

0.63%

Arizona Resident Births (2000-2012)

Number of births %change

# o

f R

es

ide

nt

Bir

ths

% C

ha

ng

e in

Re

sid

en

t B

irth

s

Legal Arizona Worker's Act (LAWA), 1st Jan 2008

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

0.00%

3.57%2.81%

8.35%

4.40%3.27%

6.42%

1.94%

-6.76%

-10.03%-10.50%

-5.64%

2.74%

-2.27%

0.58%

1.76% 1.89% 1.92%

7.99%

-0.31% -0.33%

-4.08%

-2.81%

-0.42%

0.85%

Percent change in Arizona Resident Births by Hispanic and Non-Hispanics

All others Hispanic

%C

ha

ng

e

Legal Arizona Worker's Act (LAWA), 1st Jan 2008

Legal Arizona Worker's Act (LAWA), 1st Jan 2008

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

0.00%

10.06%

8.43%

10.23%

5.73%

0.00%

4.63%

7.55%

-6.71%

-9.54%

-11.99%

-5.51%

3.13%

10.07%

4.71%

1.84%

6.76%

8.29%

-1.14%

3.86%

2.44%

1.07%

-0.14%

Percent Change in Arizona Health Care Cost Containment System (AHCCCS) births by Race/Ethnicity

All others (AHCCCS Births) Hispanic (AHCCCS Births)

So what next?

• Does the economy argument hold true for Arizona?

• Is this a statistical anomaly (noise, over/under-estimation of denominators for certain groups etcetera)?

• Perhaps it is related to “Public Health Prevention” efforts?

• Need more investigation that utilizes individual fertility behavior models and aggregate fertility data to explain the “story”?