Recent Advances In Tools For Forest and Watershed

Management

Emrys TreasureBiological Scientist and TACCIMO Coordinator

Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center

Southern Research StationSouthern Research Station

Raleigh, NC

2 March 2010

Presentation Overview

� Template for Assessing Climate Change Impacts

and Management Options (TACCIMO)and Management Options (TACCIMO)

�Water Supply Stress Index – Carbon and

Biodiversity (WaSSI-CB)

TACCIMOA Climate Change Tool for Forest Managers

www.forestthreats.org/taccimotool

USDA Forest Service

Eastern Forest Environmental Threat

Assessment Center

Steve McNulty (PI), Emrys Treasure, Jennifer Moore Myers, Robert HerringEastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center, Southern Research Station,

USDA Forest Service, Raleigh, NC

Template for Assessing Climate Change Impacts and

Management Options

A USDA Forest Service PartnershipSouthern Research Station – Southern Region Planning

USDA Forest Service, Raleigh, NC

Chris Liggett (PI), David Meriwether, Paul ArndtSouthern Region Planning, USDA Forest Service, Atlanta, GA

Todd Pierce, Jeff Hicks, Amber Ramirez, Caroline DoughertyUniversity of North Carolina – Asheville, National Ecosystem Modeling and

Assessment Center, Asheville, NC

What Is TACCIMO?

Interactive and adaptive information framework

•Peer reviewed quotations describing climate change

•Linked directly with land management plans

Detailed user guide and quick start guides

•Step-by-step instructions

•Interpretation guidance

•Case studies, definitions, and links to other resources

Interactive mapping tool

•Temperature and precipitation projections

•Natural resource relevant context layers

TACCIMO Fundamentals

TACCIMO enables users to keep pace with

and accurately consider climate change in

natural resource management activities

TACCIMO is a web-based assessment and

1. PlanningManagement

conditions and

capabilities to address

climate change

TACCIMO is a web-based assessment and

reporting tool that substantively connects

science and planning information

TACCIMO includes an interactive mapping

tool, detailed user guides, training, and

durable connections with climate change

scientists

2. SciencePhysical and biological

impacts of climate

change and potential

management options

3. ReportCustom and

synthesized account of

science and related

planning

ClimateChange

Projections

ClimateChange Science

Land and Resource

Management Plans

Planning

Input

Output

Current Situation Report (CSR)

Feedback

PlanningReport

(USFS Planners)Basic

Report(State & Private)

Climate Change Factors Impacting Ecosystems

• Direct Impacts

• Management Options

• Source Literature

• Supporting Literature

• Geographic Location

Input

Climate Change Factors Impacting Ecosystems

• Direct Impacts

• Management Options

• Supporting Literature

• Geographic Location

• Interactions

Climate Change SciencePhysical and biological impacts of climate change and management options

• Quotations representing 350 direct impacts and 200

management options with over 500 automatically

generated linkages

• Sourced from 125 synthesis and primary source peer

reviewed publications with 350 links to supporting

literature across 13 factors

Direct Impacts Management Options

and counting …

Land and Resource Management Plans

• Desired Conditions

• Objectives

• Design Criteria

• Monitoring Questions

Input

Land and Resource Management PlansConnecting science with management conditions and capabilities

• Sourced directly from

eastern (R8 & R9) land and

resource management

plans

• Automatically linked to

TACCIMO factors by plan

headings

Input

Modeling Group GCM

Canadian Centre for Climate

Modeling & AnalysisCGCM3.1

• Understanding the likely range and variability of future climate

• Context layers (infrastructure, ownership, etc)

• Interactive tools include forecasts for water supply, forest

productivity, biodiversity, and others (versions 2.0 & 3.0)

• Geospatial selections included with the complete TACCIMO

report (version 3.0)

Geospatial ResourcesProviding context to consider direct impacts and management options

Projected Climate Change

• 3 Global Circulation Models

• 3 IPCC Scenarios

• 2 Climate Variables (ppt & tavg)

• Interactive Tools and Summaries

Scenario Emissions Path

SRES A2 "higher" emissions path

SRES A1B "middle" emissions path

SRES B1 "lower" emissions path

Modeling & Analysis

Hadley Centre for Climate

Prediction and ResearchHadCM3

NOAA / Geophysical Fluid

Dynamics LaboratoryCM2.1

Live Demo

Water Supply Stress Index – Carbon and Biodiversity

(WaSSI-CB)

Contact: Ge Sun, Steve McNulty, Peter Caldwell

WaSSI

Current Water Demand (MGD)

Water Demand0 - 100100 - 200200 - 400400 - 800800 - 16001600 - 32003200 - 6620

States

WaSSI

Current Water Supply (MGD)

Water Supply0 - 100100 - 500500 - 10001000 - 20002000 - 40004000 - 80008000 - 1200012000 - 2000020000 - 60000

States

WaSSI

WaSSI

Response of Forest Water Yield to 50% LAI Reduction

(mm/year)

Water Yield Change

0 - 25

26 - 50

51 - 75

76 - 100

101 - 125

126 - 160

WaSSI

Precip -10%

Response of Forest Water Yield to 10% Precipitation Reduction

(mm/year)

% Response of Forest Water Yield to 10% Precipitation Reduction

mm/yr. %

Sensitivity

-10% Precip

-302 - -200

-199 - -100

-99 - -50

-49 - 0

Sensitivity

-10% Precip.

-33 - -20

-19 - -10

-9 - -5

-4 - 0

WaSSI

Response of Forest Water Yield to Temp Rise (2 o C)

(mm/year)% Response of Forest Water Yield to Temp Rise (2

o C)

Temp + 2 oC

Sensitivity

Temp rise 2 oC

-85 - -50

-49 - -30

-29 - -15

-14 - 6

Sensitivity

Temp + 2 oC

-77 - -50

-49 - -30

-29 - -10

-9 - 14

mm/yr. %

WaSSI

Mean Response of Water Yield to Climate Change

in 2050 (mm yr.-1)

Response

-730 - -200

-199 - -100

-99 - 0

1 - 100

101 - 200

201 - 886

WaSSI-CB

WaSSI-CB

Vertebrate Species Richness

Conclusions

TACCIMO

•Resource that makes current, creditable, and concise

climate change information available

•Responsive to user needs and requests

In General

•TACCIMO is a resource to help relate science to the needs of

resource management practitioners

WaSSI

•Understand the sensitivity of water yield to climate

change and tradeoffs with forest productivity and

biodiversity

Thank You!

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