Rebecca Buchanan and John Skalski, University of Washington Gregory Mackey, Douglas County PUD...
-
Upload
anastasia-tunell -
Category
Documents
-
view
220 -
download
0
Transcript of Rebecca Buchanan and John Skalski, University of Washington Gregory Mackey, Douglas County PUD...
![Page 1: Rebecca Buchanan and John Skalski, University of Washington Gregory Mackey, Douglas County PUD Charles Snow, Washington DFW TRIBPIT: ESTIMATING SALMONID.](https://reader038.fdocuments.in/reader038/viewer/2022110205/56649c725503460f94923589/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
1
Rebecca Buchanan and John Skalski, University of Washington
Gregory Mackey, Douglas County PUD
Charles Snow, Washington DFW
TRIBPIT: ESTIMATING SALMONID COHORT SURVIVAL DURING JUVENILE MIGRATION
![Page 2: Rebecca Buchanan and John Skalski, University of Washington Gregory Mackey, Douglas County PUD Charles Snow, Washington DFW TRIBPIT: ESTIMATING SALMONID.](https://reader038.fdocuments.in/reader038/viewer/2022110205/56649c725503460f94923589/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
2
COHORT SURVIVAL: INTRODUCTION• Historical focus of survival
monitoring: annual migration through hydrosystem
• System survival• LGR-LGR SAR
• Great! But
• Misses survival to hydrosystem
• How to relate migration performance to brood year?• Variation in age at
initiation of migration
![Page 3: Rebecca Buchanan and John Skalski, University of Washington Gregory Mackey, Douglas County PUD Charles Snow, Washington DFW TRIBPIT: ESTIMATING SALMONID.](https://reader038.fdocuments.in/reader038/viewer/2022110205/56649c725503460f94923589/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
3
COHORT SURVIVAL: INTRODUCTION• Cohort survival: probability of
subyearling fish surviving to eventually reach …
• Mainstem river• Hydrosystem• McNary Dam (etc.)
• Defined for cohort from a brood year
• Accounts for variation in age at migration
• Includes• Initiation of migration• Survival from rearing
(tagging) grounds to hydrosystem
![Page 4: Rebecca Buchanan and John Skalski, University of Washington Gregory Mackey, Douglas County PUD Charles Snow, Washington DFW TRIBPIT: ESTIMATING SALMONID.](https://reader038.fdocuments.in/reader038/viewer/2022110205/56649c725503460f94923589/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
4
OUTLINE
• Introduction: Cohort Survival
• Development of Analysis Model
• Case Study: Twisp River Steelhead, 2010 cohort
• Data and Software
• Results and Conclusions
![Page 5: Rebecca Buchanan and John Skalski, University of Washington Gregory Mackey, Douglas County PUD Charles Snow, Washington DFW TRIBPIT: ESTIMATING SALMONID.](https://reader038.fdocuments.in/reader038/viewer/2022110205/56649c725503460f94923589/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
5
DEVELOPMENT OF ANALYSIS MODEL: GENERALIZED LOWTHER-SKALSKI MODEL
![Page 6: Rebecca Buchanan and John Skalski, University of Washington Gregory Mackey, Douglas County PUD Charles Snow, Washington DFW TRIBPIT: ESTIMATING SALMONID.](https://reader038.fdocuments.in/reader038/viewer/2022110205/56649c725503460f94923589/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
6
SIMPLE POPULATION: CJS MODEL
Rel
S1
P1
l=S3P3
S2
P2
![Page 7: Rebecca Buchanan and John Skalski, University of Washington Gregory Mackey, Douglas County PUD Charles Snow, Washington DFW TRIBPIT: ESTIMATING SALMONID.](https://reader038.fdocuments.in/reader038/viewer/2022110205/56649c725503460f94923589/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
7
COMPLEX POPULATION: BRANCHING MODEL
Rel
S1 P1 l=S3P3S2 P2
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
![Page 8: Rebecca Buchanan and John Skalski, University of Washington Gregory Mackey, Douglas County PUD Charles Snow, Washington DFW TRIBPIT: ESTIMATING SALMONID.](https://reader038.fdocuments.in/reader038/viewer/2022110205/56649c725503460f94923589/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
8
COHORT BRANCHING MODEL
S1 P1 l=S3P3S2 P2
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Model estimates transition probability• Year-specific probability
of getting from one site to another
• Includes:• Migration and
survival• Delay and survival
Rel
![Page 9: Rebecca Buchanan and John Skalski, University of Washington Gregory Mackey, Douglas County PUD Charles Snow, Washington DFW TRIBPIT: ESTIMATING SALMONID.](https://reader038.fdocuments.in/reader038/viewer/2022110205/56649c725503460f94923589/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
9
COHORT SURVIVAL TO SITE 1
Rel Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
![Page 10: Rebecca Buchanan and John Skalski, University of Washington Gregory Mackey, Douglas County PUD Charles Snow, Washington DFW TRIBPIT: ESTIMATING SALMONID.](https://reader038.fdocuments.in/reader038/viewer/2022110205/56649c725503460f94923589/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
10
COHORT SURVIVAL TO SITE 2
Rel Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
![Page 11: Rebecca Buchanan and John Skalski, University of Washington Gregory Mackey, Douglas County PUD Charles Snow, Washington DFW TRIBPIT: ESTIMATING SALMONID.](https://reader038.fdocuments.in/reader038/viewer/2022110205/56649c725503460f94923589/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
11
COHORT BRANCHING MODEL: ANNUAL RELEASES OVER AGE CLASSES
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Rel 2
Rel 3
Rel 1
![Page 12: Rebecca Buchanan and John Skalski, University of Washington Gregory Mackey, Douglas County PUD Charles Snow, Washington DFW TRIBPIT: ESTIMATING SALMONID.](https://reader038.fdocuments.in/reader038/viewer/2022110205/56649c725503460f94923589/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
12
DETECTION SITES AND DATA• Detection sites
• Instream PIT-tag detectors (juvenile)• Juvenile Bypass Systems and other dam sites• Estuary Towed Array• Detection probabilities: not tiny
• Data
• PIT-tag interrogation data• Detected where and when• Multiple observation years• DART query
• Age data – identify the cohort
![Page 13: Rebecca Buchanan and John Skalski, University of Washington Gregory Mackey, Douglas County PUD Charles Snow, Washington DFW TRIBPIT: ESTIMATING SALMONID.](https://reader038.fdocuments.in/reader038/viewer/2022110205/56649c725503460f94923589/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
13
CASE STUDY: TWISP RIVER STEELHEAD
![Page 14: Rebecca Buchanan and John Skalski, University of Washington Gregory Mackey, Douglas County PUD Charles Snow, Washington DFW TRIBPIT: ESTIMATING SALMONID.](https://reader038.fdocuments.in/reader038/viewer/2022110205/56649c725503460f94923589/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
14
TWISP RIVER STEELHEAD
• 2010 – 2012 (July – October): • 5,422 juvenile O. mykiss tagged
• CSS Study• Hatchery effectiveness monitoring for
Douglas PUD
![Page 15: Rebecca Buchanan and John Skalski, University of Washington Gregory Mackey, Douglas County PUD Charles Snow, Washington DFW TRIBPIT: ESTIMATING SALMONID.](https://reader038.fdocuments.in/reader038/viewer/2022110205/56649c725503460f94923589/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
15
• Brood Year: 2010
• Tagging: Hook and line, electroshock, rotary screw trap
• 2010: 211• 2011: 759• 2012: 514
• Age data
• Scale samples (WDFW)• < 90 mm: subyearlings (fall) or
yearlings (July)
• Detection Sites
• LMR = Lower Methow River – couldn’t use
• Rocky Reach, McNary, John Day
TWISP RIVER STEELHEAD
![Page 16: Rebecca Buchanan and John Skalski, University of Washington Gregory Mackey, Douglas County PUD Charles Snow, Washington DFW TRIBPIT: ESTIMATING SALMONID.](https://reader038.fdocuments.in/reader038/viewer/2022110205/56649c725503460f94923589/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
16
DART DATA QUERY: WWW.CBR.WASHINGTON.EDU/DART/QUERY/PIT_BASIN_BRANCHING
![Page 17: Rebecca Buchanan and John Skalski, University of Washington Gregory Mackey, Douglas County PUD Charles Snow, Washington DFW TRIBPIT: ESTIMATING SALMONID.](https://reader038.fdocuments.in/reader038/viewer/2022110205/56649c725503460f94923589/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
17
TAGGING AND OBSERVATION DATA
![Page 18: Rebecca Buchanan and John Skalski, University of Washington Gregory Mackey, Douglas County PUD Charles Snow, Washington DFW TRIBPIT: ESTIMATING SALMONID.](https://reader038.fdocuments.in/reader038/viewer/2022110205/56649c725503460f94923589/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
18
PROGRAM TRIBPITWWW.CBR.WASHINGTON.EDU/ANALYSIS
![Page 19: Rebecca Buchanan and John Skalski, University of Washington Gregory Mackey, Douglas County PUD Charles Snow, Washington DFW TRIBPIT: ESTIMATING SALMONID.](https://reader038.fdocuments.in/reader038/viewer/2022110205/56649c725503460f94923589/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
19
SITES AND YEARS CONFIGURATION
![Page 20: Rebecca Buchanan and John Skalski, University of Washington Gregory Mackey, Douglas County PUD Charles Snow, Washington DFW TRIBPIT: ESTIMATING SALMONID.](https://reader038.fdocuments.in/reader038/viewer/2022110205/56649c725503460f94923589/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
20
RESULTS: TRANSITION PROBABILITIES
![Page 21: Rebecca Buchanan and John Skalski, University of Washington Gregory Mackey, Douglas County PUD Charles Snow, Washington DFW TRIBPIT: ESTIMATING SALMONID.](https://reader038.fdocuments.in/reader038/viewer/2022110205/56649c725503460f94923589/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
21
TWISP STEELHEAD: COHORT SURVIVAL
To Rocky Reach:0.0478
(SE = 0.0025)
To McNary:0.0283
(SE = 0.0139)
![Page 22: Rebecca Buchanan and John Skalski, University of Washington Gregory Mackey, Douglas County PUD Charles Snow, Washington DFW TRIBPIT: ESTIMATING SALMONID.](https://reader038.fdocuments.in/reader038/viewer/2022110205/56649c725503460f94923589/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
22
• PIT-tag subyearlings
• Age the fish – all the fish you want to use to estimate cohort survival
• Sample size
• Sample size of subyearlings is key• Large enough to represent every migration year for cohort• Tributary Survival SampleSize (Columbia Basin Research)
DATA REQUIREMENTS
![Page 23: Rebecca Buchanan and John Skalski, University of Washington Gregory Mackey, Douglas County PUD Charles Snow, Washington DFW TRIBPIT: ESTIMATING SALMONID.](https://reader038.fdocuments.in/reader038/viewer/2022110205/56649c725503460f94923589/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
23
CONCLUSIONS• Cohort survival is the probability of a subyearling surviving to a downstream
location• Proportions of fish outmigrating each year• Survival for each age class• Performance metric from Bi-Op
• What we learn from cohort survival and TribPit• Survival to the hydrosystem• Where are fish overwintering• Age structure of migrants
• Applications• Steelhead juvenile outmigration• Fall Chinook salmon• Spring Chinook salmon (non-natal rearing areas)
• Software: www.cbr.washington.edu/analysis
![Page 24: Rebecca Buchanan and John Skalski, University of Washington Gregory Mackey, Douglas County PUD Charles Snow, Washington DFW TRIBPIT: ESTIMATING SALMONID.](https://reader038.fdocuments.in/reader038/viewer/2022110205/56649c725503460f94923589/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
24
THANKS• Software:
• Jim Lady and Susannah Iltis, Columbia Basin Research, University of Washington
• Consultation:• Andrew Murdoch, Todd Miller – WDFW • Tim Copeland, Brett Bowersox, Nick Davids – IDFG • Scott Favrot – ODFW • Jody White – QCI • Joe Zendt – Yakama Nation• Rick Orme – Nez Perce Tribe• Josh Murauskas – Anchor QEA• Pat Connolly – USGS
• Funding: Bonneville Power Administration