Realistic about Risk: Software development with Real Options
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Transcript of Realistic about Risk: Software development with Real Options
8/14/2019 Realistic about Risk: Software development with Real Options
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/realistic-about-risk-software-development-with-real-options 1/23
Real Optionsin a nutshell
Olav MaassenQNH
Chris MattsAccellinnova
© alisdair
8/14/2019 Realistic about Risk: Software development with Real Options
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Real Options:
And how do they improve your life?
8/14/2019 Realistic about Risk: Software development with Real Options
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The Game
© jimmyrog
© fatal Cleopatra
8/14/2019 Realistic about Risk: Software development with Real Options
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Risk
Time
Agile
© thelastminute
Source: Kevin Tate, Alias Software
Risk
Time
Waterfall
© - Woo -
8/14/2019 Realistic about Risk: Software development with Real Options
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An Arbitrage(Free Money)
© wilhei55
© moonpix7
8/14/2019 Realistic about Risk: Software development with Real Options
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Optionseverywhere
© Justin Russell
© tvol
8/14/2019 Realistic about Risk: Software development with Real Options
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• Price dro s to $90 • Price oes to $110
100.000 (+/- 5%) barrels of oil for $100 / barrel
Total value: $10.000.000
• 95.000 barrels
• Cost saving: $10 * 5.000
• 105.000 barrels
• Extra profit: $10 * 5000
8/14/2019 Realistic about Risk: Software development with Real Options
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• Price dro s to $90 • Price oes to $110
100.000 (+/- 5%) barrels of oil for $100 / barrel
Total value: $10.000.000
• 95.000 barrels
• Cost saving: $10 * 5.000
• 105.000 barrels
• Extra profit: $10 * 5000
95.000 barrels plus the option to buy
10.000 more
8/14/2019 Realistic about Risk: Software development with Real Options
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Financial OptionsEmbedded Options
Maths
FinancialMaths
Real Options
Information
© Striker W@SP
8/14/2019 Realistic about Risk: Software development with Real Options
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Black Scholes…..A House of Cards
© janetmck
8/14/2019 Realistic about Risk: Software development with Real Options
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Oops!
© shaymus022
8/14/2019 Realistic about Risk: Software development with Real Options
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Never commit
early unless youknow why
Options have
value © luismi1985
Options expire
© givepeasachance © Tub Gurnard
8/14/2019 Realistic about Risk: Software development with Real Options
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1. Right2. Wrong3. Uncertainty
© Bethany L King
© Violator3
8/14/2019 Realistic about Risk: Software development with Real Options
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A or B?
Maths
WWW.
Grid
© The Nug
© Uninen
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© TAudiophile
© lucadex
8/14/2019 Realistic about Risk: Software development with Real Options
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© codyR
© Hamedog
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© elliottcable
© whitneybee
8/14/2019 Realistic about Risk: Software development with Real Options
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STOP
Guessing!
© topher76
8/14/2019 Realistic about Risk: Software development with Real Options
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Create Options
© haydnseek
8/14/2019 Realistic about Risk: Software development with Real Options
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Prepare to run fast.
© James Temple
8/14/2019 Realistic about Risk: Software development with Real Options
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……and have fun. © lordkirbs
8/14/2019 Realistic about Risk: Software development with Real Options
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Q&A
8/14/2019 Realistic about Risk: Software development with Real Options
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Further Reading:
Article: “Real Options” underlie agile practiceshttp://www.infoq.com/articles/real-options-enhance-agility
Contact Information:
Olav Maassen ([email protected])
Chris Matts ([email protected])
All photo’s are licensed under the Creative Commons license by their respective owners.Pictures are taken from flickr.com