Real-time analysis and prediction tools based on data for ... · EFITA, Jully 2017, Montpellier....
Transcript of Real-time analysis and prediction tools based on data for ... · EFITA, Jully 2017, Montpellier....
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Real-time analysis and prediction tools based on data for regional plant health monitoring: application on wheat and
wine in France.
François Brun (ACTA), Lucie Michel (ACTA/INRA), Jacques Veslot (ACTA),
Mathilde Chen (ACTA/INRA), David Makowski (INRA) et al.
Modelling & Data Analysis for Agriculture Network
www.modelia.org
EFITA, Jully 2017, Montpellier
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Context : information to reduce pesticides
Pest & Disease moniteringnetwork
Bulletin de Santé du VégétalA weekly edition for farmer & Advisor
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Example BSV wine in Midi-Pyrénées
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Monitoring networks
Example on wine, Epicure network for BSV
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Medium/Big Data of observations
•millions of observations since 2009…
• In season time repeated data set
Septoria tritici on wheat Mildew on wine
Inci
den
ce
Leaf
inci
den
ce
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Our work
• Two main use cases
• Mildew of wine
• Septoria on wheat
• Our proposals are :
1. To develop a statistical approach to analyze epidemiological dynamics
2. To Provide an analysis report automatically
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A model to predict short term dynamic based on the field observations collected.
SynOEM
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Quality of prediction at short term is satisfying
different time horizons
Without random effect
With random effect
Dat
e o
f p
red
icti
on
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Agricultural practices can be taken into account
Titre intervention
Calculations on F3 leaf–BSV17 2015
Risque groups= sowing date & cultivar sensitivity
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How we provide tools for bulletin editors
•wine (mildew and other diseases)
• South West of France (since 2014)
• extension to others regions
• Based on Epicure® database
•wheat (septoria)
• East and Center of France (since
2015)
• Based on Vigicultures® database
Analysis & formatting informations
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For the moment, limited access to editor of Bulletin
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Choice of an areaChoice of a date
Acces to the historical repports
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PDFand Figures (could be included in the final report)
Acces to the historical repports
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and on all other diseases…
with statistical models and maps…
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Used and some graph can be incorporated in the final BSV edition
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From field to automatic report
Analysis & formatting informations
Powered by
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Towards more interactive tools for editors, advisers or farmers
• Hackathon API-AGRO (February 2017)
• 48 hours to code tools that valorize agricultural data
Epi Agro applicationUser interface php/javascriptwebservices php/R
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Data selection
One to severaldepartments
DateCrop
dashboard
Nuisibilité Evolution
Selection of one pest or disease
Dynamic during the crop campain
Comparison to historicaldata
Spatial occurrence
within the area selected
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After 48 hours of hard work …After pitching in front of a board of examiners…
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partnership
• Funding• AAP PSPE Synoem
• AAP Casdar SMART PIC
• PhD CIFRE (ACTA/INRA)
• partnership• ACTA, ARVALIS – Institut du Végétal, IFV, Terres Inovia
• INRA (centre de Versailles-Grignon)
• CIRAME
• CRA Midi-Pyrénées, CRA Champagne Ardenne, CRA Bourgogne, CRA Centre
• Others expertises (DRAAF)
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ACTA – Technical institutes network• 15 agricultural technical institutes (ITA) federated in a
network with ACTA - 1800 employees– specialized by production sector
– under professional leadership