READY-TO-USE DATA New sources of open risk information
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Transcript of READY-TO-USE DATA New sources of open risk information
READY-TO-USE DATANew sources of open risk information
Global Assessment Report
Global Risk Assessment
RISK
What is “risk”?
consequences
uncertainty
eventsprobabilityseverity
• Risk is the probability of an adverse outcome (Graham and Weiner, 1995)
• Risk is a measure of the probability and severity of adverse effects (Lowrance, 1976)
• Risk is the combination of probability of an event and its consequences (UNISDR, 2007)
• Risk assessment thus analyse what could happen in a near future following hazardous events (e.g. floods, cyclones, earthquakes)
• Further than “what could happen”, the risk assessment also provide information on “how likely this is to happen”
• Once the decision makers know how likely and how severe the events (and their consequences) are, they can act upon them
What is “risk”?
RISKconsequences
uncertainty
eventsprobabilityseverity
Global Exposure Database• The Global Exposure Database provides the distribution of the value of
the urban built environment around the world in a 5Km x 5 Km grid
Global hazard assessment• Earthquake Hazard for different return periods, developed using the open
source program CRISIS2012 (www.ecapra.org)
• Cyclonic wind hazard for different return periods, developed using the open source program ERN-Hurricane (www.ecapra.org)
Global hazard assessment
• Tsunami hazard for ~1 in 500 years return period
Global hazard assessment
• Global Flood Model, pilot study for Thailand
Global hazard assessment
CAPRACOMPREHENSIVE APPROACH TO PROBABILISTIC RISK ASSESSMENT
www.ecapra.org
Global Risk Assessment
• Annual Average Losses (AAL)Estimated average loss per year, over a long time period and considering the range of loss scenarios with different occurrence probabilities
• Probable Maximum Losses (AAL)Maximum loss that could be experienced in the occurrence of a disaster with a particular return period
Global Risk Assessment
Global Risk Assessment
Global Risk Assessment
Drought Hazard and Risk• Agricultural drought hazard for Africa and the Mediterranean Regions
between 2000 and 2010• Assessment of likelihood of crop losses for Mali, Niger, Mozambique and
Kenya
OPEN QUAKE• Developed by the Global Earthquake Model
• Web-based risk assessment platform, an integrated environment for modelling, viewing, exploring, and managing earthquake risk
… Looking forward
Global Volcano ModelA sustainable, accessible platform for information on volcanic hazard
and risk
CEVWOVO
GNS New
Zealand
VHUB
UNAM
• Global assessment of relative threat for each volcano at a national scale
• Regional stochastic models of volcanic ashfall and risk case studies
… Looking forward
All the GAR13 (and more) data available from:www.preventionweb/gar
Further information on data uses, methods and tools in the Global Assessment Report 2013 Annex 1
Thank you
www.preventionweb.net/gar