Reactive vs. Proactive Approaches to Obsolescence Management · Obsolescence Management . 250...
Transcript of Reactive vs. Proactive Approaches to Obsolescence Management · Obsolescence Management . 250...
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Reactive vs. Proactive Approaches to Obsolescence Management
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Agenda
Agenda
1. SiliconExpert Introduction 3-5 minutes
2. Walt Custer- Custer Consulting 35 minutes
3. Wade Hanna- SiliconExpert 20 minutes
4. Questions & Answers 3-5 minutes
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• Serving Electronic OEMs, Distributors, Manufacturers & Contract Manufacturers
• Our Electronic Component Database of over 250 million components powers our:
o Comprehensive software tools o Integrated solutions o Professional services
About Us
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Reactive vs. Proactive Approaches to Obsolescence Management
250 Million+ Orderable Part Numbers
Up to 42 Parametric values/product line
Risk Analysis & Obsolescence Forecasting Algorithms developed with CALCE
Regulation Compliance Data tracked: EU & China RoHS2, REACH, Conflict Minerals, WEEE & Material Declarations
Parametrically-derived cross-references for millions of parts
Our Database
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Reactive vs. Proactive Approaches to Obsolescence Management Today’s Expert Panelist
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Business OutlookGlobal Electronics Industry
Supply Chain
Custer Consulting Groupwww.custerconsulting.comAugust 2014
20140804
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Topics of this Presentation
• Business Cycles & Global Economy• World & Regional Electronic Supply Chain Growth- Electronic Equipment- Active & Passive Components- EMS/ODM Companies- Materials and Process Equipment• Summary & Forecasts
• Forecasting tools and how to use this information to predict your companies sales
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Global Business Conditions1H’14 growth was variable. China slowed but Japan, N America & Europe accelerated. Recently China has resumed growth & Europe has decelerated but overall global growth has continued
World electronic equipment sales increased about 5% in 2Q’14 vs. 3% in 1Q’14
Smartphone sales are strong while media tablet growth is slowing
Solar/photovoltaic demand is recovering
Global semiconductor shipments reached all time high in June
Some re-shoring from Asia/Pacific to N America & Europe and also shifting of manufacturing from China to lower cost southern Asian countries.
Global unrest is worrying - especially Mideast/Gaza/Israel & Russia/Ukraine
U.S. political wrangling is limiting domestic progress
20140714
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Industry Dynamics
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BUSINESS CYCLE Electronic Equipment, EMS/ODM Companies, Components, Materials & Capital Equipment
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360
Electronic Equipment
EMS/ODM
Components
Raw Materials
Capital Equip
Expansion ContractionTime ->
20130915
% Growth
+
-
0
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Electronic Equipment, SEMI Equipment, PCBs & Semiconductor Shipments20140805
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Mar Ju
lN
ov Mar Ju
lN
ov Mar Ju
lN
ov Mar Ju
lN
ov Mar Ju
lN
ov Mar Ju
lN
ov Mar Ju
lN
ov Mar Ju
lN
ov Mar Ju
lN
ov Mar Ju
lN
ov Mar Ju
lN
ov Mar Ju
lN
ov Mar Ju
lN
ov Mar Ju
lN
ov Mar Ju
l
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
PCBSemiconductorElec EquipSEMI EquipmentZero Growth
3/12 Rate of Change
Source: Custer Consulting GroupCalendar Year
ActualBusinessCycles
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Global Economy
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Industrial Production – World% Change vs. One Year Earlier
Britain + 2.2 MayCzech Republic + 2.6 MayFrance - 3.7 MayGermany + 1.2 MayItaly - 1.8 MayNetherlands + 0.6 MayRussia + 0.4 JunSpain + 0.5 MayEuro Area + 0.5 May
Canada + 3.9 AprUSA + 4.3 JunChina + 9.2 JunIndia + 4.7 MayMalaysia + 6.1 MaySingapore + 0.4 JunS Korea + 0.6 JunTaiwan + 8.6 JunThailand - 6.6 JunJapan + 3.2 Jun
www.economist.com + Eurostat
20140802
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50.5
55.8
49.3
51.7
51.8
57.1
52.5
51.5
54
48.4
50.7
51.8
55.3
52.6
48.0 50.0 52.0 54.0 56.0 58.0
Japan
Taiwan
S Korea
China
Europe
USA
World
PMI
June July
Purchasing Managers' Indices June vs. July 2014
Markit Economics, JPMorgan and ISM
Above 50 = GrowthBelow 50 = Contraction
20140803
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Global "Purchasing Managers" IndexDiffusion Index, >50 = Growth
Markit Economics
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
PMI
20140802
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World Purchasing Managers Index3/12 Rate of Change
ISM, JPMorgan, Markit Economics
20140802
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
3/12
Rat
e of
Cha
nge
ChinaUSAEuropeWorld0 Growth
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PMI Leading Indicator vs. Global Semiconductor Shipments
http://www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3/
20140803
0.3
0.5
0.7
0.9
1.1
1.3
1.5
1.7
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2013
CCG Semiconductor Leading Indicator
SIA Semiconductor Shipments
0 Growth
3/12 rate of growth
2-MonthLead
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Electronic Equipment
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2013 World Electronic Equipment Production by Type
Electronic Outlook 10/2013
2.3%
22.2%
12.8%
7.9%26.5%
8.9%
9.9%
9.5%BusinessCommunicationConsumerAutoComputerGov/MilitaryIndustrialInstrument
20130101
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World Electronic Equipment ProductionBy Type20140802
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
industr+instrugov/milComputer & PeripheralsautomotiveconsumerTelecom/DatacomBusiness
Preliminary2Q’14 Estimate
+4.7%
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Methods to Measure Growth
Sector composites based upon financial reports of similar companies- Typically quarterly, semiannually or monthly
Government and trade organization statistics- Typically monthly
- TIMELY DATA REPORTED ON A CONSISTENT BASIS IS KEY
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Sector Analyses based on Company Financial
Reports
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Electronic Equipment SuppliersComposite of 160 Public Companies
Revenue, Net Income & Inventory
Computer 13, Internet 9, Storage 10, Communication 20, SEMI 30, Medical 23, Instruments 11, Military 6, Business & Office 3, Consumer 13, Automotive 11
20140802
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
$ Billions
Revenue
Income
Inventory
Preliminary2Q’14 estimate
+4.7%
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Electronic Equipment SuppliersComposite of 160 Public Companies
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Computer 13, Internet 9, Storage 10, Communication 20, SEMI 20, Medical 23, Instruments 11, Military 6, Business & Office 3+ Media tablets from all vendors, Consumer 13, Automotive 11
201405802
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
% G
row
th
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Inventory/Sales Ratios Large Component Distributors, Semiconductor, EMS & OEM Companies
Custer Consulting Group based upon company financials
20140802
0.15
0.25
0.35
0.45
0.55
0.65
0.75
0.85
Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Semiconductor
EMS
OEM
Component Distrib
Ratio: Inventories/Sales
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Global Electronic Supply Chain Growth 2Q'14 vs. 2Q'13 (preliminary)
51
-55
711
-16
15
121
1112
47
-11
-12
6
-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25Electronic Equipment
MilitaryBusiness & Office
Instruments & ControlsMedical
CommunicationInternet
ComputerData Storage
AutomotiveConsumer
SEMI EquipSemiconductors (SIA)Passive Components
PCBsComponent Distributors
Large EMS (excl Foxconn)ODM
PCB Process EquipmentMaterials
PCB Laminate
% Change
20140806
US$ equivalent at fluctuating exchange; based upon industry composites including acquisitions
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Regional Data from Government, Industry & Trade Organization
Statistics
EuropeJapanTaiwan/ChinaUSA
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European Computer, Electronic & Optical Products Production
Eurostat, C26 category, EU 27 countries
20140714
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Index (2010=100), Seasonally Adjusted
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Japan Electronic Equipment Production by Month 2000 to Present
0200400600800
100012001400160018002000
1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Elec Application EquipElectronic Measuring InstrumentationCommunications EquipmentComputers & Related EquipmentElectronic Business MachinesConsumer Electronic Equipment
JEITA www.jeita.or.jp/
20140720
Yen Billion
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Taiwan/China Electronic Equipment ProducersComposite of 101 Manufacturers
Consolidated Revenue
Taiwan listed companies, often with significant manufacturing in China
20140711
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
June 2014 up 3.7% compared toJune 2013 and up 11.7% compared to May 2014
NT$ Billions
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U.S. Electronic Equipment Orders & ShipmentsComputer, Communications, Measurement & Control and Military
www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3/
20140725
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
Jan
Jun
Nov Apr
Sep
Feb
Jul
Dec
May Oct
Mar
Aug Ja
nJu
nN
ov Apr
Sep
Feb
Jul
Dec
May Oct
Mar
Aug Ja
nJu
nN
ov Apr
Sep
Feb
Jul
Dec
May Oct
Mar
Aug Ja
nJu
nN
ov Apr
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20132014
Thou
sand
s Orders
Shipments
$ Billions (monthly, seasonally adjusted)
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U.S. Electronic Equipment OrdersMonthly Data
www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3/
20140805
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Jan
Jun
Nov Apr
Sep
Feb
Jul
Dec
May Oct
Mar
Aug Ja
nJu
nN
ov Apr
Sep
Feb
Jul
Dec
May Oct
Mar
Aug Ja
nJu
nN
ov Apr
Sep
Feb
Jul
Dec
May Oct
Mar
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Medical, Measuring & Control
Search & Navigation - non Military
Communication- non Military
Computer & Related
Military-Search & Navigation
Military-Communications
$ Billions (monthly, seasonally adjusted)
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Global Electronic Equipment
EuropeJapanTaiwan/ChinaS KoreaUSA
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World Electronic Equipment Shipmentsby Region 2013 @ 2012 Exchange Rates
Electronic Outlook 10/13
20%
15%
6%52%
7%
N AmericaW EuropeJapanRest of AsiaROW
Total Production: $2,002 Billion
FinalAssembly
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Regional Electronic Equipment Shipment Growth
20140805
0.60.70.80.91.01.11.21.31.41.51.61.71.81.92.0
Jan
May Sep
Jan
May Sep
Jan
May Sep
Jan
May Sep
Jan
May Sep
Jan
May Sep
Jan
May Sep
Jan
May Sep
Jan
May Sep
Jan
May Sep
Jan
May Sep
Jan
May Sep
Jan
May Sep
Jan
May Sep
Jan
May
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Taiwan/ChinaJapanUSAEurope (EU27)KoreaZero Growth
3/12 Rate of Growth (in local currency)
Sources: IPC, JPCA, Taiwan/China composite; Eurostat "wiring devices" for Europe
Calendar Year
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World Electronic Equipment Monthly Shipments
Converted @ Constant 2012 Exchange Rates
Source: Custer Consulting Group & Electronic Outlook Corp
20140805
0102030405060708090
100
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
USA
W Europe
Japan
Taiwan+China
ROA
ROW
US$ B
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World Electronic Equipment Monthly Shipments
Converted @ Fluctuating Exchange Rates
Source: Custer Consulting Group & Electronic Outlook Corp
20140805
80
100
120
140
160
180
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
June 2014 up 2.9% vs June 2013and up 7.9% vs. May 2014
US$ M
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Market Segments
Volume (Shifted to Low Cost Areas)Computers & Mobile Communication DevicesOther Consumer ElectronicsDatacom/TelecomAutomotive
"Protected"MilitaryMedicalInstruments & ControlsHigh IP Content
Prototype, Quick Response, Short Run, Need for Local Support
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Military EquipmentComposite of 16 Public Companies
Revenue, Net Income & Inventory
Boeing (military portion), EADS (military portion), Finmeccinica,General Dynamics, Halliburton, Harris, Honeywell (military portion), L-3 Communications, Lockheed, Moog, Northrop Grumman, Raytheon, Rockwell Collins, Textron, Thales, United Technology
20140802
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
$ Billions
Mill
ions Revenue
Income
Inventory
+ 0.9%
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U.S. Military Electronics Orders & ShipmentsDefense Communication & Search & Navigation Equipment
www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3/
20140805
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Thou
sand
s Orders
Shipments
$ Billions (monthly, seasonally adjusted)
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U.S. Aircraft & Parts Shipments
02468
101214161820
1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Non-Defense Defense
www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3
US$ Billion
20140805
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Instruments & Control EquipmentComposite of 12 Public Companies
Revenue, Net Income & Inventory
ABB, Agilent, Ametek, Emerson, Itron, National Instruments, PerkinElmer, Rockwell Automation, Rotork, Teledyne, ThermoFisher, Woodward Govenor
20140802
-505
1015202530354045
Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20132014
$ Billions
Mill
ions
Revenue
Income
Inventory
Preliminary 2Q’14 results5.1%
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U.S. Electromedical, Measurement & Control EquipmentOrders & Shipments
www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3/
20140805
4
5
5
6
6
7
7
8
8
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Orders
Shipments
$ Billions (monthly, seasonally adjusted)
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Communication&
ComputerEquipment
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ChangingElectronicEquipment
Markets
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Mobile Phone Unit ShipmentsWorld
Gartner Dataquest 2/14 & prior reports, 1Q’14 growth per IDC on 4/30/14
050
100150200250300350400450500
Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20132014
Thou
sand
s
UnitsUnits (Millions)
20140501
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Smartphone Unit Shipments to End UsersWorld
Gartner Dataquest 2/14 & prior reports, Q1’14 per IDC Q1’14/Q1’13 growth on 4/30/14
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Thou
sand
s
Units (Millions)
20140730
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Personal Computer Unit ShipmentsWorld
Gartner Dataquest 7/14 & prior reportsServer & Media Tablets not included
0102030405060708090
100
Q4Q2Q4Q2Q4Q2Q4Q2Q4Q2Q4Q2Q4Q2Q4Q2Q4Q2Q4Q2Q4Q2Q4Q2Q4Q2Q4Q2Q4Q2Q4Q2
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20132014
Thou
sand
s
UnitsUnits (Millions)
![Page 51: Reactive vs. Proactive Approaches to Obsolescence Management · Obsolescence Management . 250 Million+ Orderable Part Numbers Up to 42 Parametric values/product line Risk Analysis](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081507/5f19ebc1e820ed560c7fe6fe/html5/thumbnails/51.jpg)
Media Tablets
IDC 7/14 & earlier
20140725
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2011 Q4 2012 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2013 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2014 Q1 2014 Q2
OthersBarnes & NobleMicrosoftAmazonAcerLenovoAsusSamsungApple
Units (millions)
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Smart Connected Device Market by Type
IDC 6/14
20140620
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Smartphone 53.2 59.5 65.3 69.7 71.2 72.6 73.6 74.1Tablet + 2-in-1 7.7 11.8 14.2 13.7 14.0 14.0 14.0 14.1Portable PC 22.4 16.5 11.6 9.3 8.4 7.7 7.2 6.9Desktop 16.6 12.2 8.9 7.3 6.4 5.7 5.2 4.9
0102030405060708090
100Unit % of Total
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New Potential Growth Markets
Internet of Things (26 billion units by 2020, $300 billion added revenue)- Smart Cars- Smart Gear- Smart Homes- Smart Offices- Smart Cities
Driverless VehiclesDrones3D PrintingRobots
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Industrial Robots: Sales by Region
IFR 6/14 & prior
20140620
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Total 80 95 120 111.1 114.4 113.0 60.0 120.6 166.0 159.3 129.3Not Specified 80 95 120 49.7India 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.4 0.8 1.5 1.5ROW 2.6 2.8 1.7 1.0 3.7 9.2 7.2Asia Pacific 5.9 4.3 6.8 3.6 8.7 11.1 12.0China 5.8 6.6 7.9 5.5 15.0 22.6 23.0 36.6S Korea 10.8 10.1 11.6 7.8 23.5 25.5 19.4N America 17.4 18.7 16.2 8.4 16.4 24.3 26.3 23.7Japan 37.4 36.1 33.1 12.8 21.9 27.9 28.7 26.0Europe 30.4 34.9 34.7 20.5 30.7 43.8 41.2 43.0
8095
120111 114 113
60
121
166 159129
020406080
100120140160180200
Units (000)
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Components
- Semiconductors- Passive Components- Solar/Photovoltaic Industry- Component Distributors
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Semiconductors
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2012 2013 % CHSamsung 25.9 30.3 16.6Apple 17.2 22.2 28.9HP 10.8 10.1 - 6.5Lenovo 7.9 9.2 15.8Dell 7.7 7.7 0Cisco 6.3 6.6 4.1Sony 8.6 6.5 -23.9Huawei 4.3 5.2 21.1Panasonic 6.1 4.9 -20.1Toshiba 5.1 4.6 - 9.6Others 126.8 129.9 2.4Total 226.7 237.2 4.6
Top OEM Semiconductor Spending for Served Available Market (US$ Billion)
20140124
IHS 1/14
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6/13 6/14 % CH
Americas 4.76 5.34 +12.1%
Europe 2.84 3.19 +10.0%
Japan 2.72 2.95 + 8.5%
Asia Pacific 14.56 16.09 +10.5%
Total 24.88 27.57 +10.8%
Monthly Semiconductor Shipments$ Billions (3-month average)
SIA www.sia-online.org/
20140803
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World Semiconductor ShipmentsMonthly US$
SIA
20140803
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Jan
Sep
May Jan
Sep
May Jan
Sep
May Jan
Sep
May Jan
Sep
May Jan
Sep
May Jan
Sep
May Jan
Sep
May Jan
Sep
May Jan
Sep
May Jan
Sep
May Jan
Sep
May Jan
Sep
May Jan
Sep
May Jan
Sep
May Jan
Sep
May
83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Thou
sand
s
3-Month AvgUS$ Billions (3-month average)
2009 recession much sharper but shorter than 2001
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Global Semiconductor Shipments3-Month Growth Rates on $ Basis
Total $ Shipments from All Countries to an AreaSIA website: www.sia-online.org/
20140803
0.3
0.5
0.7
0.9
1.1
1.3
1.5
1.7
Jan
Sep
May Jan
Sep
May Jan
Sep
May Jan
Sep
May Jan
Sep
May Jan
Sep
May Jan
Sep
May Jan
Sep
May Jan
Sep
May Jan
Sep
May Jan
Sep
May Jan
Sep
May Jan
Sep
May Jan
Sep
May Jan
Sep
May Jan
84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
3/12 rate of change
21
4
3 65
8
7
10
911
13
12
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Total Semiconductor Shipments to an AreaMonthly Shipments - Reporting Firms
SIA website: www.sia-online.org/
20140803
0.02.04.06.08.0
10.012.014.016.018.020.0
Jan
Jun
Nov Apr
Sep
Feb
Jul
Dec
May Oct
Mar
Aug Ja
nJu
nN
ov Apr
Sep
Feb
Jul
Dec
May Oct
Mar
Aug Ja
nJu
nN
ov Apr
Sep
Feb
Jul
Dec
May Oct
Mar
Aug Ja
nJu
nN
ov Apr
Sep
Feb
Jul
Dec
May Oct
Mar
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Japan
N America
Europe
Asia-Pac
$ Billions SE Asia
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Total Semiconductor Shipments to an AreaMonthly Shipments - Reporting Firms
SIA website: www.sia-online.org/
20140803
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Jan
Jul
Jan
Jul
Jan
Jul
Jan
Jul
Jan
Jul
Jan
Jul
Jan
Jul
Jan
Jul
Jan
Jul
Jan
Jul
Jan
Jul
Jan
Jul
Jan
Jul
Jan
Jul
Jan
Jul
Jan
Jul
Jan
Jul
Jan
Jul
Jan
Jul
Jan
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Japan
Europe
N America
Asia-Pacific
Asia grows from 20% to 59% market share
6/14
11.5%
10.6%
19.8%
58.1%
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N American Semiconductor ShipmentsMonthly & 3-Month Average Shipments
SIA website: www.sia-online.org/
20140803
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
Jan
Jun
Nov Apr
Sep
Feb
Jul
Dec
May Oct
Mar
Aug Ja
nJu
nN
ov Apr
Sep
Feb
Jul
Dec
May Oct
Mar
Aug Ja
nJu
nN
ov Apr
Sep
Feb
Jul
Dec
May Oct
Mar
Aug Ja
nJu
nN
ov Apr
Sep
Feb
Jul
Dec
May Oct
Mar
Aug
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Thou
sand
s
Month
3-Month Avg
$ Billions
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Semiconductor Fab, Assembly, Packaging,Test & Measurement
Equipment
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2012 2013 2013/2012 Applied Materials 5,513 5,460 - 1.0%ASML 4,888 5,303 + 8.5%Lam Research 2,806 3,163 +12.7%Tokyo Electron 4,219 3,057 -27.5%KLA-Tencor 2,464 2,163 -12.2%Dainippon Screen Mfg 1,484 1,224 -17.6%Hitachi High-Technologies 1,138 862 -24.2%Advantest 1,423 845 -40.6%Teradyne 918 822 -10.4%Nikon Corporation 1,007 636 -36.8%Others 12,296 10,244 -16.7%All companies 38,154 33,778 -11.5%
Top SEMI Equipment Revenues2013 vs 2012 (US$ Millions)
20140501
Gartner 4/14
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Semiconductor Fab, Test & Measurement Composite of 30 Public Companies
Revenue, Net Income & Inventory
Advantest, Applied Materials, ASM Intl, ASML, Brooks Automation, BTU, CollabRx, Dainippon Screen, Disco, Electroglas, Entegris, FEI, FSI, Hitachi Hi Tech, Hitachi Kokosai, KLA-Tencor, Ibis, Intervac, Kulicke & Soffa, Lam Research, MKS Instrument, Novellus Systems, Photon Dynamics, Rudolph Technologies, Teradyne, Tokyo Electron, Ultra Clear, Ultratech Stepper, Varian Semiconductor, Veeco, Xcerra (LTX-Credence)
20140802
-4.0-2.00.02.04.06.08.0
10.012.014.016.018.0
Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
US$ Billions @ fluctuating exchange
Chart TitleRevenue
Income
Inventory
+21%
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Semiconductor Capital Equipment Shipments by Area
www.semi.org, www.seaj.or.jp/ 6/14
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20132014
ROW
China
Taiwan
S Korea
N America
Japan
Europe
$ Billions
+39%
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Global Semiconductor & Semiconductor Capital Equipment3-Month Shipment Growth Rates on $ Basis
Sources: SIA; Semiconductor Equipment Association of Japan, www.semi.org, Custer Consulting Group SEMI equipment sector composite growth
20140803
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Jan
Aug Mar
Oct
May
Dec Ju
lFe
bSe
pA
prN
ov Jun
Jan
Aug Mar
Oct
May
Dec Ju
lFe
bSe
pA
prN
ov Jun
Jan
Aug Mar
Oct
May
Dec Ju
lFe
bSe
pA
prN
ov Jun
Jan
Aug Mar
Oct
May
Dec Ju
lFe
bSe
pA
prN
ov Jun
Jan
Aug Mar
Oct
May
84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
SemiconductorsSEMI Capital EquipZero Growth
3/12 Rate of Change
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Passive Components
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Passive ComponentsComposite of 12 Companies
Revenue, Net Income & Inventory
AVX, Bel Fuse, Diodes, International Rectifier, Kemet, Littlefuse, Murata, RF Micro, Rohm, Vishay, TDK, Yageo;Euro, Yen & NT$ converted to US$ at fluctuating exchange rates
20140802
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
$ Billions
Revenue
Income
Inventory
+12%Preliminary 2Q’14 results
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U.S. Passive Components Shipmentsvs. Semiconductor Shipments to N America
U.S. Dept of CommerceSIA
201803
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Passive
Semiconductor
Zero Growth
3/12 Rate of Change
Semiconductors lead passive components by 1-3 months and are more volatile
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Global "Purchasing Managers" Index vs. Global Passive Component & Semiconductor Shipments
20140802
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
Apr
Aug Dec Apr
Aug Dec Apr
Aug Dec Apr
Aug Dec Apr
Aug Dec Apr
Aug Dec Apr
Aug Dec Apr
Aug Dec Apr
Aug Dec Apr
Aug Dec Apr
Aug Dec Apr
Aug Dec Apr
Aug Dec Apr
Aug Dec Apr
Aug
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Global PMI 3/12Global PassivesGlobal SemiconductorsZero Growth
Global PMI=JPMorganGlobal Passive Components = Custer Consulting Group Industry CompositeGlobal semiconductors = SIA
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Solar/PhotovoltaicEquipment
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Solar/Photovoltaic FinancialsComposite of 90 Public Global Companies
Revenue, Net Income & Inventory
20140715
-10,000-5,000
05,000
10,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,00045,000
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
US$ (Millions) RevenueIncomeInventory +6.7%Note: currencies converted to US$
@ fluctuating exchange
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Taiwan Solar/Photovoltaic Panel CompaniesComposite of 27 Manufacturers
20140711
05
101520253035404550
Jan
May Sep
Jan
May Sep
Jan
May Sep
Jan
May Sep
Jan
May Sep
Jan
May Sep
Jan
May Sep
Jan
May Sep
Jan
May Sep
Jan
May Sep
Jan
May Sep
Jan
May Sep
Jan
May Sep
Jan
May Sep
Jan
May
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
NT$ (Billions)
Acter, Big Sun Energy Technology, Chen Full Intl, Danen Technology, Daxon Technology, DelSolar, Delta Electronics, e_TON Solar Tec, InvetecGroup, Eversol, Gigasolar materials, Gintech, Green Energy Technology (GET), Higher Way Elec, Kenmec Mechanical, Ligitek, Motech, Neo Solar Power, Phoenixtec Power Co (PPC), Powermate, Precision Silicon, Sino-American Silicon Products (SAS), Solar Applied Materials Technology, Solartech Energy Corp, Sunrise Global Solar Energy, Sysgration, Tainenergy Tech, Tera Autotec, Tyntek, Wafer Works, Wholetech System Hitech
Calendar Year
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Component Distributors
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Electronic Component DistributorsComposite of 4 US Public Companies
Revenue, Net Income & Inventory
Arrow, Avnet, Nu Horizons (historical), Richardson
20140731
-4.0-2.00.02.04.06.08.0
10.012.014.016.0
Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
$ Billions
Revenue
Income
Inventory
+5%
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DMASS - European Semiconductor Distribution Industry
http://dmass.com/ 5/14
20120602
0
500
1000
1500
2000
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Other France UK Italy Germany
$ Millions
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DMASSEuropean Semiconductor Distribution Industry
20140602
478511
139 157123 136
108 124158 178
153 146
321348
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Q1'13 Q1'14
Euros (Millions)
GermanyItalyUKFranceE EuropeNordicOther
DMASS 5/2014; http://dmass.com/
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EMS & ODM Companies
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Large EMS Providers Composite of 9 Public Companies
Revenue, Net Income & Inventory
Benchmark+Pemstar, Celestica, Flextronics+Solectron, Foxconn, Jabil, Plexus, Sanmina, Sypris, Venture Mfg
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
US$ Billions @ fluctuating exchange
Revenue
Income
Inventory
-0.7%
20140731
-2%%Q3'14/Q3'13
Guidance
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Large EMS Providers Composite of 8 Public Companies
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Benchmark+Pemstar, Celestica, Flextronics+Solectron, Jabil, Plexus, Sanmina-SCI, Sypris,Venture Mfg
20140731
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Excludes Foxconn
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2013/20122012 2013 Growth %
Foxconn (Hon Hai) 136,515 133,238 -2%Pegatron 30,800 32,029 +4%Quanta Computer 33,400 29,666 -11%Compal Electronics 23,567 23,341 -1%Wistron 22,869 21,793 -5%Inventec 15,406 15,537 +8%Asustek Computer 15,237 15,616 +2%Chimei Innolux 16,241 14,244 -12%Lite On Technology 7,266 7,171 -1%Total 301,301 292.635 -3%
Large Taiwan ODM Providers20140110
Source: Company data, NT$ converted at constant avg 2013 exchange (29.672 NT$ = 1US$)Consolidated company sales (to be updated soon to consolidated sales)
2012 vs. 2013 Sales ($M)
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Taiwan ODM CompaniesComposite Sales of 11 Large Manufacturers
0100200300400500600700800900
1,000
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
June 2014 was up 5.6% vs. June 2013 & 10.7% upsequentially from May 2014
NT$ (Billions)
Asustek Computer, Chei Mei, Compal Electronics, Foxconn, Chimei Innolux , Inventec, Inventec Appliance, Lite On Technology, Mitac International, Pegatron, Quanta Computer, Wistron, Chei Mei Display replacing Chei Mei & Innolux Display 3/10 & later
Calendar YearCompany Financial Releases
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Large ODM Companies Composite of 10 Public Manufacturers
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Asustek Computer, Compal Electronics, Foxconn, Chimei Innolux, Inventec, Inventec Appliance, Lite On Technology, Mitac International, Pegatron, Quanta Computer, Wistron
20140711
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20132014
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PCB Fabrication
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2013 World PCB Production by Region
NT Information 5/14
5.1%
5.0%
10.6%
44.5%
13.7%
14.2%2.7%
4.2%AmericasEuropeJapanChinaTaiwanS KoreaThailandOther Asia
20140805
Total: $59.6 Billion
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Rank Maker Country US$M1 Nippon Mektron Japan 2,5302 Young Poong Group Korea 2,2533 Unimicron Taiwan 2,1484 Zhen Ding Technology Taiwan 2,1175 SEMCO Korea 1,8656 Ibiden Japan 1,5067 Tripod Taiwan 1,3828 Sumitomo Denko PC Japan 1,3799 TTM Technologies USA 1,36810 Daeduck Group Korea 1,29711 Nanya PCB Taiwan 1,09712 Compeq Taiwan 1,04713 PSA PCB Group Taiwan 1,02314 Viasystems Group Inc USA 1,00815 Kingboard PCB Group China 92216 Shinko Denki Japan 80017 Meiko Japan 79218 Mflex USA 78819 AT&S Austria 78620 Kinsus Taiwan 78321 Multek USA 73022 SI Flex Korea 72623 CMK Japan 71024 TPT (Taiwan Techvest) Taiwan 70725 WUS Group Taiwan 703
World’s Top PCB Companies - 201320131111
Dr Hayao Nakahara, N.T. Information Ltd 8/2014
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Regional PCB Shipment Growth20140731
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
Jan
May Sep
Jan
May Sep
Jan
May Sep
Jan
May Sep
Jan
May Sep
Jan
May Sep
Jan
May Sep
Jan
May Sep
Jan
May Sep
Jan
May Sep
Jan
May Sep
Jan
May Sep
Jan
May Sep
Jan
May Sep
Jan
May
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Taiwan/ChinaS KoreaJapanN AmericaEuropeZero Growth
3/12 Rate of Growth (in local currency)
Sources: IPC, JPCA, Taiwan/China composite; Eurostat "wiring devices" for Europe
Calendar Year
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World PCB Monthly ShipmentsConverted @ Fluctuating Exchange Rates
20140731
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
Jan
May Sep
Jan
May Sep
Jan
May Sep
Jan
May Sep
Jan
May Sep
Jan
May Sep
Jan
May Sep
Jan
May Sep
Jan
May Sep
Jan
May Sep
Jan
May Sep
Jan
May Sep
Jan
May Sep
Jan
May Sep
Jan
May
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
N AmericaEuropeJapanTaiwan/ChinaRest of AsiaKorea
$ Billions
Source: Custer Consulting GroupCalendar Year
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World PCB Monthly ShipmentsConverted @ Fluctuating Exchange Rates
Source: Custer Consulting Group
20140529
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
ROWRest of AsiaKoreaTaiwan/ChinaJapanEuropeN America
US$ % of Total
Calendar Year
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World PCB Shipments (with forecast)Converted @ Fluctuating Exchange Rates
20140731
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
ActualForecast
+1.3%
-1.1%
$ Billions
Source: Custer Consulting Group - 2010 base year expanded by monthly growth of N. American, European, Japanese & Taiwan/China monthly PCB shipments
Calendar Year
Growth calculations:Europe = Eurostat “Wiring Device”Japan & N. America from JPCA & IPC dataTaiwan/China:46 rigid & flex company compositeRest of Asia growth = Taiwan/China 44 company compositeIncludes S Korea data for 2011-2013
+3.2%
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Forecasts
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World 1.0 -2.6 4.3 5.7 6.0
USA -0.9 -4.1 1.3 4.8 5.3
W. Europe -3.4 -3.6 3.2 3.1 3.6
Japan -2.6 -10.3 1.4 2.8 3.2
Four Tigers -1.2 2.3 4.3 5.7 6.2
China 2.6 -2.4 5.6 6.7 7.0
Henderson Ventures 6/2014www.hendersonventures.com
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Electronic Equipment Production Growth
Constant $ Growth Rates Converted @ Constant Exchange Rates
20140611
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Worldwide Semiconductor Market by GeographyWSTS Forecast
WSTS 6/14
20140603
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016Total 149.4 204.4 138.9 140.8 166.3 213.1 227.4 247.7 255.6 248.6 226.3 298.3 299.5 291.6 305.6 325.4 336.1 350.5Asia Pacific 37.2 51.3 39.8 51.2 62.8 88.8 103.5 116.5 123.5 124.0 119.6 160.0 164.0 163.0 174.4 190.6 197.9 207.1Japan 32.8 46.7 33.1 30.5 38.9 45.8 44.1 46.4 48.8 48.5 38.3 46.6 42.9 41.1 34.8 34.4 35.0 36.1Europe 31.9 42.3 30.2 27.8 32.3 39.4 39.1 39.9 41.0 38.2 29.9 38.1 37.4 33.2 34.9 37.6 38.7 40.3Americas 47.5 64.1 35.8 31.3 32.3 39.1 40.7 44.9 42.3 37.9 38.5 53.7 55.2 54.4 61.5 62.8 64.5 67.0
149
204
139 141166
213227
248 256 249226
298 300 292306
325 336350
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
4006.4%
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Worldwide Semiconductor Capital Equipment Market by Geography (with forecast)
SEMI 7/14 (and prior reports)
20140713
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Total 19.8 22.2 37.1 32.9 40.5 42.8 29.5 15.9 39.9 43.5 36.9 31.8 38.4 42.6ROW 2.7 2.1 4.5 2.9 3.7 3.1 2.6 1.4 3.8 3.4 2.1 2.1 1.7 2.1China 1.2 2.7 1.3 2.3 2.9 1.9 0.9 3.7 3.7 2.5 3.4 5.0 5.1S Korea 1.7 3.2 4.6 5.8 7.0 7.4 4.9 2.6 8.6 8.7 8.7 5.2 6.9 8.0Europe 2.1 2.6 3.4 3.3 3.6 2.9 2.5 1.0 2.3 4.2 2.6 1.9 2.5 3.7Taiwan 3.5 2.9 7.8 5.7 7.3 10.7 5.0 4.4 11.3 8.5 9.5 10.6 11.6 12.3Japan 3.9 5.6 8.3 8.2 9.2 9.3 7.0 2.2 4.4 5.8 3.4 3.4 3.7 4.2N America 5.9 4.7 5.8 5.7 7.3 6.6 5.6 3.4 5.8 9.3 8.2 5.3 7.2 7.3
19.822.2
37.132.9
40.542.8
29.5
15.9
39.943.5
36.9
31.8
38.442.6
05
101520253035404550
+21%
$ Billions
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Global PMI, Electronic Equipment, PCB & Semiconductor Shipments20140803
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
Mar Ju
lN
ov Mar Ju
lN
ov Mar Ju
lN
ov Mar Ju
lN
ov Mar Ju
lN
ov Mar Ju
lN
ov Mar Ju
lN
ov Mar Ju
lN
ov Mar Ju
lN
ov Mar Ju
lN
ov Mar Ju
lN
ov Mar Ju
lN
ov Mar Ju
lN
ov Mar Ju
lN
ov Mar Ju
l
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
PCBSemiconductorElec EquipGlobal PMIZero Growth
3/12 Rate of Change
Source: Custer Consulting GroupCalendar Year
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Global Electronic Supply Chain Forecast2014 vs. 2013
0 5 10 15
SEMI CapitalEquipment
Semiconductors
PCBs
ElectronicEquipment
Combined GDP
Gartner
Custer Consulting Group
Henderson Ventures
HV
Henderson Ventures
% Change
20140620
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Global Electronic Supply Chain Forecast2015 vs. 2014
0 5 10 15
SEMI CapitalEquipment
Semiconductors
PCBs
ElectronicEquipment
Combined GDP
Gartner
Custer Consulting Group
Henderson Ventures
HV
Henderson Ventures
% Change
20140611
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Conclusions2014 appears to be a year of modest single-digit growth globally for most electronic supply chain sectors except for capital equipment which will expand in the 10-20% range
SE Asia dominates world electronics production
Increased talk of “re-shoring” or relocating production due to rising costs in China
Global political unrest is a major concern
New high volume products are emerging
Leading indicators are useful for tracking the recovery regionally
20140716
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Using This Information to Forecast Your
Company’s Sales
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Data Sources
• Trade Organizations• SIA, SEMI, JEITA, IPC, JPCA, DMASS, ZVEI
• Government Statistics• US DOC, Eurostat
• Published Market Research Studies• Company Financial Reports & Consolidated Sector Data• Leading Indicators
• Purchasing Managers Indices, Conference Board CLI• Consumer Confidence, Chip Foundry sales, etc.
• Your Own Company’s Sales
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Forecasting Your Company Sales
• Organize monthly or quarterly sales in spreadsheet• Obtain related industry time series for same time period• Compare industry data and/or leading indicators to yoursales using 3/12 growth rates• Determine lead times vs. your data• Forecast your sales based upon lead times• Estimate your market share gains/losses by comparingyour company growth to a related industry sector
•Custer Consulting Group can assist by providing: • Historical industry data• Help with analysis
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Custer Consulting Group Products
Daily News Services (6 days/week)- Global electronics supply chain- Solar/Photovoltaic supply chain
Business Outlook- Market charts & data
Global marketOEMsComponents, EMS, ODM, materials & process equipSolar/Photovoltaic
- Weekly Market Comments with latest charts
20111007
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Much More Information Exists (both charts and actual chart data)
Due to Time Constraints Only a Limited Sample was Provided
to receive a much more complete set of charts
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Wade Hanna Senior Sales Engineer
(508) 887-2830
SiliconExpert Panelist
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Reactive vs. Proactive Approaches to Obsolescence Management
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Supply Chain Risk
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Demo Portion
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Wade Hanna
Senior Sales Engineer
(508) 887-2830
Q&A Session
For webinar attendees:
Demos of SiilconExpert’s Part Search &
BOM Manager tools
Supply Chain Webinar
Please fill out the survey at the end of the webinar.
Your feedback is greatly appreciated.