Reaching the marginalized

Samer Al-SamarraiChild Friendly Budgets for 2010

and Beyond Policy Forum

New York, 18-19 February

EFA Global Monitoring Report 2 0 1 0

Educ

ation

for A

ll G

loba

l Mon

itorin

g Re

port

201

0Education at risk: the impact of the financial crisis

Despite progress world ‘off track’ to achieve EFA goals

‘Aftershock effects’ will hamper progress particularly for marginalized groups:

– rising poverty and levels of malnutrition– mounting fiscal pressures and slower economic growth will

limit education financing– Increased aid vital for creating fiscal space but aid is under

threat.

Educ

ation

for A

ll G

loba

l Mon

itorin

g Re

port

201

0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

56 million

8 million

23 million

Rest of the World

South and West Asia39 million

Sub-Saharan Africa45 million

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Out-of-school children (millions)

East Asia and the Pacific

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

32

18

9

63

72 million

1999

6

84

105 million

Out-of-school children

Arab States Latin America and the Caribbean

Numbers of out-of-school children are declining, but not fast enough

East Asia and the PacificArab States Latin America and the Caribbean

Educ

ation

for A

ll G

loba

l Mon

itorin

g Re

port

201

0

Richest 20%

Poorest 20%

Poor. rural Hausa girls

Rich. rural girls

Poor. urban boys

Poor. rural girls

Nigeria

Rural Hausa

Rich. urban boys

Urban

Rural

Urban

Rural

Rich. rural boys

Somalia

Chad

Bangladesh

Cameroon

Honduras

IndonesiaBolivia

Cuba

Ukraine

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Aver

age

num

ber o

f yea

rs o

f sch

oolin

g

Education poverty

Extreme education poverty

3.3 years

6.4 years

3.5 years

9.7 years

0.5 years

10.3 years

2.6 years

0.3 years

BoysGirls

6.7 years

10 years

Education marginalization – inequalities within countries

The case of Nigeria

Educ

ation

for A

ll G

loba

l Mon

itorin

g Re

port

201

0Consequences of the crisis on education

Increased levels of poverty and rising levels of malnutrition will have irreversible consequences in education:– Undermines cognitive development and causes

irreversible losses in opportunities for learning– Reductions in household spending on education– Withdrawal of children from school

Negative consequences likely to fall disproportionately on the most vulnerable

Educ

ation

for A

ll G

loba

l Mon

itorin

g Re

port

201

0Budget monitoring

Little evidence that low-income countries cut public spending in 2009– Most countries in SSA planned increases in

expenditure on education – Only two countries planned to cut education

expenditure (Benin and Ghana)

…. but problems with monitoring

Educ

ation

for A

ll G

loba

l Mon

itorin

g Re

port

201

0Economic growth matters for education financing

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

total changein real primary

education spending

Change due toGDP growth

Change due to revenue

collection

Change due to education

budget allocation

Change due to primary

educationbudget allocation

Educ

ation

for A

ll G

loba

l Mon

itorin

g Re

port

201

0Education financing could suffer from slower growth

-6.0

-5.0

-4.0

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2009 2010

Co

nst

an

t P

PP

20

06

US

$ b

illi

on

s

Total education spending

Primary education spending

Pre-crisis projections

Educ

ation

for A

ll G

loba

l Mon

itorin

g Re

port

201

0Fiscal space constrained in most countries off-track

Room for manoeuvre is limited

Many countries with extremely limited fiscal space furthest off track for achieving EFA

Aid has the most immediate potential for protecting social sector budgets

Educ

ation

for A

ll G

loba

l Mon

itorin

g Re

port

201

0

3.2 3.4 3.44.5 5.6

4.05.5

4.33.2

8.27.6 7.9

9.510.4

12.0

9.9

12.312.1

199920002001200220032004200520062007

Const

ant

2007

US

$ b

illio

ns

Total aid to basic education

Total aid to education

Aid commitments to basic education – a worrying picture

Disbursements are rising, however commitments fell by 22% in 2007, to US$4.3 billion.

Commitments

Educ

ation

for A

ll G

loba

l Mon

itorin

g Re

port

201

0Rising to the EFA challenge

Set equity-based targets for all EFA goals and monitor their progress.

Monitor early warning impacts – budgets, health/education indicators, and vulnerable groups

Changes in public spending need to be pro-poor. Increase resource mobilization and strengthen equity in public spending.

Identify the drivers of marginalization for specific groups and adopt integrated policies that address them.

Scale up support for social protection to protect productive assets, health and education

Honour aid commitments and strengthen the multilateral architecture for aid to education.

EFA Global Monitoring Report 2 0 1 0

www.efareport.unesco.org