RE-OPENINGSCHOOLS POSTCOVID-19May 2020

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DECREASE IN INFECTION RATES WILL ALLOW RE-OPENING OF SCHOOLS

Change in school closure figures from April to now1 Rationale for school re-openings

• Governments are easinglockdown measures to restarteconomies

• Schools critical given link toparents re-joining the workforceand contributing to the economy

• Importance to avoid furtherdisruptions to the academicyear, in particular for graduatingclasses

• Singapore, Denmark, andGermany are some of the firstcountries to begin gradual re-opening of schools

195Country-wide closures

91.3%Learners impacted

153Country-wide closures

68.5%Learners impacted

Ap

ril

No

w

80k

Localized openings

Country-wide closures

Schools open

Source: UNESCO COVID-19 Impact on Education as of 20/05/201. From 31-Mar to 20-May – see appendix for details

Opening strategies include fundamental changes to logistics, processes, and procedures to ensure preparedness for potential waves of infection

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CURRENT THINKING IS A STAGED APPROACH TO RE-OPENING SCHOOLS

OpeningPre-opening1 2 Post-opening3• Extensive track, trace, and testing

both through swab testing andpurpose-built apps

• Preparation of schools:

– Staff training with enhancedroles for nursing staff, facilities,and counsellors

– Physical space planning toensure small groups withsufficient distance

– Scenario planning in case ofinfection

– Planning for infection waves,flexibility to shift to and fromdistance learning

• Openings

– Staged openings with priority tocritical grades

– Staggered arrivals, lessons, andbreaks

• School area

– Temperature checks at entry

– Enhanced sterilization andcleaning processes

– Masks and general PPEdistribution to students andstaff

• Classroom area

– Limiting interaction (deskdistancing, screen dividers…)

– Limiting students in classroomsand physical space planning

• Close monitoring of infection rateswith continued track/trace

• Quarantine measures shouldinfections be detected

• Continued education of staff,students, and parents inmaintaining hygiene practices atschool and at home

• Clear and effective communicationbetween schools, students, andparents

Structural measures implemented will allow for eventual scaling and greater prevalence of school openings prior to the end of the current academic year

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BUT PHYSICAL DISTANCING WILL MEAN A DECREASE IN PUPILS PER CLASSROOM, INCREASING SPACE REQUIREMENTS

• Based on the UK’s baseline design for schools1 aprimary school for 210 students requires 1315m2

– Equivalent to 6.3m2 per student or 26 students perclassroom

• Should this decrease to 15 students per classroom, asper latest guidance, classroom space requirement willincrease by 1.74X

• Expanding capacity by, for example, re-purposingrooms such as a sports hall will still mean 30% ofstudents cannot be accommodated

• These figures exclude the requirements for staff andother key workers within the school

• Thus full school re-opening will require a holistic setof solutions to minimize additional cost whilstfulfilling obligations to students, parents, andteachers / staff

26 Pupils, 2.38 m2 per pupil

15 Pupils, 4.13 m2 per pupil

1 Pupil

Restrictions will mean on average 30% of students cannot be accommodated

1. Education and Skills Funding Agency, 2018 Source: GOV.UK baseline designs for schools guidance

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HOLISTIC SOLUTIONS NEED TO CONSIDER A VARIETY OF FACTORS TO ENSURE SAFE RE-OPENING WITH REDUCED CLASS SIZES

Considerations to re-opening schools given space limitations

Consideration Issue Solution(s) Implications Cost Complexity

Accommodating all students

Unable to accommodate all students at the same time due to limited space

Staggering school day into shifts

• Downtime for studentsduring the day

• Extra teaching capacityrequired

Teacher numbers

Should school day be staggered extra teaching capacity will be needed

Extend teaching hours and/or hiring more teachers

• Significant cost expected• Risk of teaching

imbalance / standards

Content Reduced school day might mean more content taught over shorter timeframe

Utilize distance learning solutions to supplement lost school-time

• Integration of curriculumwith distance learningsolution / infrastructure

• Training of teachers,students, and parents

Physical activity Prioritization of space for teaching may impact physical education

Promote home exercise for students as a component of distance learning

• Solutions required formonitoring of activity

• Training of teachers, andparents

Space for staff Prioritization of space for teaching may impact space allocated for staff

External temporary office space given limited specifications compared to classrooms

• Cost associated with anyenhancements to space

• Outdoor space may belimited

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Closed, staying closed

• US

– Officials in 47 states, District ofColumbia and all 5 US territorieshave ordered or recommendedthat schools stay closed for theremainder of the academic schoolyear

– Universities are likewise closedwith many having cancelledsummer term and consideringremote learning for fall

• UK

– No plans for re-opening schoolshave been announced

– Unclear if schools will reopen priorto summer holidays

Closed, but re-opening

• Israel, Norway, Finland, France

– Re-opening beginning with primaryschool

• Singapore, Hong Kong, Czech Republic,Germany, South Korea

– Re-opening beginning with finalyear students with focus on examadministration

• Operations are being modified inmultiple ways, e.g.

– Spacing desks 6 feet apartTemperature checks beforeentering buildings

– Holding classes outside

– Limiting class sizes

– Shifted schedule – half the studentsin school at a time supplementedwith remote learning

– Strict restrictions against sharingutensils, touching other students,etc.

(Almost) not closed

• Taiwan

– Schools in Taiwan only closed for 2weeks (February)

– Schools were open through Marchand April even while more stringentmeasures were put in place

• Japan

– School closure decisions were leftup to the city or prefecture, notmandated at the Federal level

APPENDIX – SCHOOL CLOSURE APPROACHES AROUND THE WORLDMost countries chose to close schools as a suppression measure, but approach to re-opening is varying

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Are kids at risk of severe illness?

• Initial epidemiological evidence fromChina suggested lower infection ratesand lower severity of illness in children(~1%)

• This evidence has been reproduced inEurope and the US, but criticized forpotential challenges due to 1) lack oftesting in children and 2) studies beingconducted post school closures

• Studies on broadly tested populations(S. Korea) also reveal very low rates ofinfection in children

• Mortality for children has been low,only a handful of cases worldwide

• Cases of pediatric multisysteminflammatory syndrome (a severecomplication that in some casesresembles Kawasaki disease)potentially linked to COVID-19 illnessare beginning to emerge in the US andEurope, but numbers are still very low

Do kids transmit COVID-19 to adults?

• Multiple tracing studies suggestedthat children were rarely the indexcase in a familial cluster and thattransmission from child to adult wasinfrequent

• A recently published study fromWuhan

• and Shanghai found that whilechildren were 1/3 as likely to getinfected, they had 3 times as manycontacts (when school was open)evening out the risk of transmission

• Another recent study from Germanydemonstrated that children that testpositive, harbor as much virus asadults suggesting infectiousness

• Multiple larger studies aimed atunderstanding transmission patternsin children are underway (e.g. NIHHEROS, St. Michael’s Hospital,Toronto)

Do simulation models suggest school closures impact R0?

• Imperial College COVID-19 responseteam’s simulation suggested thatwhile school closures reduce R0, itwas the least effective

• of the measures they modelled

• Simulations from a recent study inChina suggest that while schoolclosures are not sufficient on theirown to control the epidemic on theirown, they can reduce peak incidenceby 40–60%

• A recent review of the literature alsosites

• an early simulation of a SARS-likeillness which concludes that schoolclosures would reduce the effective R0by 12–41%

Summary: Yes, but at a lower frequency than adults

Sources: Adapted from Science (link) and (link), New York Times (link) and (link), Don’t Forget the Bubbles (link) and Lancet (link)

Summary: Evidence is very mixed

Summary: Most models suggest some impact, but extent varies

APPENDIX – SCHOOL CLOSURES WERE A DRASTIC MEASURE WITH WIDE IMPACTEvidence is mixed on whether the measure makes sense

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