Re-open Florida Florid… · Real Estate 194,770 116,505 59.8% 90,793 25,157 78,820 Construction...
Transcript of Re-open Florida Florid… · Real Estate 194,770 116,505 59.8% 90,793 25,157 78,820 Construction...
April 20, 2020
Re-open FloridaPresented to Governor Ron DeSantis’ Re-open Florida Task Force
BY:
Mark Wilson, President and CEO, Florida Chamber of Commerce,
Dr. Jerry Parrish, Chief Economist, Florida Chamber Foundation
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Florida At A Glance (Pre COVID-19)
3rd most populated State in America and growing 900 people every day
810 are from other states and countries
Florida was creating 1 in every 11 NEW U.S. Jobs since 2015
At $1.1 trillion, Florida is world’s 17th largest economy with a Florida 2030
Blueprint goal of 10th by 2030
Adding $1.19 million in income migration per hour (24/7/365)
Unemployment at 2.8% (291,000 unemployed), with 340,800 OPEN and
UNFILLED jobs (Feb 2020)
20th most diversified economy in U.S. with a Florida 2030 Blueprint goal of
Top 12 by 2030
Florida
Industry Diversification by MSA
Diversification Rankings#1 Lakeland-Winter Haven MSA#2 Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville MSA#3 Naples-Immokalee-Marco Island MSA#4 Miami-Ft. Lauderdale-West Palm Beach MSA#5 Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford MSA#6 Cape Coral-Ft. Myers MSA#7 Jacksonville MSA#8 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater MSA#9 Ocala MSA#10 North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton MSA
Data Source: Florida Gulf Coast University, Regional Economic Research Institute. Q3 2019 data
www.theFloridaScorecard.org
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Reopening in Florida will
need to be more surgical
than in other states for
at least 4 reasons
20% Share of tax receipts coming from Tourism
Share of general revenues coming from Sales
and Use Taxes
of Florida’s population is aged 65 or older
the beginning of the hurricane season in
Florida
79%
21%
6/1
5
2
12
13
7
12
4
4
7
4
11
8
1
3
4
1
3
0
2
0
0
2019 GDP share of total, % 2019 employment share of total, %
17
11
9
7
7
7
6
5
5
4
4
4
3
3
2
2
2
1
1
0
Professional services
Government
Healthcare
Real Estate
Retail
Construction
Wholesale trade
Finance & insurance
Agriculture
Recreation & sports
Manufacturing
Administrative
Accommodation & food (tourism)
Information
Transportation
Other
Management
Utilities
Education
Mining
GDP and jobs share by sector
6
913
736
279
237
Mining
217
Utilities
118
147
Administrative
211
117Real Estate
Retail
93
28
88
76
59
Management
47
40
Agriculture
38
17
9
Professional services
Wholesale trade
Transportation
1
Education
0
89
Information
Accommodation & food (tourism)
Construction
Recreation & sports
Healthcare
Government
Manufacturing
Personal & laundry
Finance
Religious & Labor unions
Repair & maintenance
Total vulnerable jobs in Florida, thousands
Jobs at risk analysis factors the risk of occupations that are performed
in close proximity to other employees and to the publicBased on the analysis of risk profile of more than 800 occupations
7
Sizable impact on small businesses
42%
22%
69%
10%
27%
38%
22%
47%
44%
34%
65%
53%
33%
16%
69%
71%
19%
3%
7%
44%
91%
13%
5%
18%
6%
20%
20%
10%
13%
16%
20%
9%
13%
18%
10%
15%
6%
10%
9%
14%
8%
9%
45%
73%
13%
84%
53%
42%
68%
40%
40%
46%
25%
34%
49%
74%
16%
22%
70%
88%
79%
48%
Construction
Retail
Information
Accommodation & food (Tourism)
Administrative
Healthcare
93
211
Recreation & sports
Transportation
Government
Real Estate
Wholesale trade
Manufacturing
Personal & laundry
Professional services
Education
Finance & insurance
Religious & Labor unions
59
Repair & maintenance
88
Management
76
Utilities
Mining
9
736
Agriculture
913
279
237
1
217
147
118
117
89
47
40
38
28
17
0
0-99 employees 100-499 employees 500+ employees
52%
12%
36%
500+
3,412,102
0-99
100-499
100% =
Private Industry vulnerable jobs by company size(%, K)
Total private sector
jobs impacted (%)
88
Potential GDP scenarios
100
90
85
110
95
105
Q2Q1 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
History
Pessimistic scenario
Optimistic scenario
Real GDP Growth – COVID-19 CrisisIndexed, 2019 Q4=100
2019 2020
-2.3%
-8.9%
2020 GDP
Growth
% Change
Real GDP, Indexed
2020 Q4
2024 Q2
Time to Return to
Pre-Crisis
Quarter
99
Potential risk by sector
Risk
Utilities
Education
Administrative
Wholesale trade
Manufacturing
Mining
Information
Medium (20-40% jobs at risk) High (40%+ jobs at risk)
Accommodation & food (Tourism)
Recreation & sports
Retail
Real Estate
Construction2
Transportation
Low (<20% jobs at risk)
% of Florida jobs1 19.5 38.837.7
% of Florida GDP1 23.3 38.535.5
Healthcare
Agriculture
Management
Government
Professional services
Finance & insurance
1. Does not include others
2. Approach will be adapted to different subsectors
1010
Potential risk by sector and company size
Risk
Utilities (21%)
Education (51%)
Administrative (16%)
Wholesale trade (60%)
Manufacturing (54%)
Mining (52%)
Information (30%)
Medium (20-40% jobs at risk) High (40%+ jobs at risk)
Accommodation & food (Tourism) (55%)
Recreation & sports (47%)
Retail (27%)
Real Estate (60%)
Construction2 (87%)
Transportation (32%)
Low (<20% jobs at risk)
Healthcare (58%)
Agriculture (91%)
Management (12%)
Government (0%)
Professional services (66%)
Finance & insurance (26%)
Share of jobs at risk in SMEs (<500 employees) in parentheses
% of Florida jobs119.5 38.837.7
% of Florida GDP11 23.3 38.535.5
Total Employment 1.8M 3.5M3.4M
# SME firms 82K 182K141K
#jobs in firms with <100 employees 24.7% 37.6%24.8%
# jobs in firms with 500+
employees62.9% 50.7%64.6%
#jobs in firms with 100-499 employees 12.4% 11.7%10.6%
1. Does not include others
2. Approach will be adapted to different subsectors
1111
18 948 90
13
6 8810 4812 16 6414
12
20 22 24 26 44
2
28 30
5
32
3
8634 6636
15
18
17
38 68
14
5040 42 46 52 54
9
56 6058 62
10
7670 72
16
7
780
74 80 82 84 92
6
1
4
8
11
Recreation & sports
Jobs at risks%
Government
Accommodation & food (tourism)
Administrative
Agriculture
Construction
Education
Finance & insuranceRetail
Healthcare
Share of GDPPercent
Management
Manufacturing
Mining
Professional services
Real Estate
Transportation
Utilities
Wholesale trade
Information
Sectors mapped based on the size of the sector, share of jobs at
risk, and risk profile
Size of bubble = # jobs at riskMediumHigh Low
Risk profile
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Detailed data by sector
High1 Total jobs Jobs at risk Jobs at risk #jobs in firms with <100 employees #jobs in firms with 100-499 employees #jobs in firms with 500+ employees
Accommodation & food (Tourism) 1,030,395 912,837 88.6% 430,734 132,588 467,073
Recreation & sports 250,811 216,832 86.5% 66,968 51,106 132,737
Retail 1,119,514 736,145 65.8% 242,656 60,815 816,043
Real Estate 194,770 116,505 59.8% 90,793 25,157 78,820
Construction 610,052 278,639 45.7% 418,461 111,937 79,654
Transportation 292,680 118,149 40.4% 63,976 28,508 200,196
Medium1 Total jobs Jobs at risk Jobs at risk #jobs in firms with <100 employees #jobs in firms with 100-499 employees #jobs in firms with 500+ employees
Utilities 23,406 8,843 37.8% 1,750 3,207 18,449
Education 162,715 58,632 36.0% 54,142 28,690 79,883
Administrative 711,316 236,724 33.3% 70,897 39,382 601,036
Wholesale trade 349,279 92,971 26.6% 152,032 57,622 139,625
Manufacturing 372,781 88,812 23.8% 127,137 75,922 169,722
Mining 4,005 952 23.8% 1,770 304 1,930
Information 134,549 27,699 20.6% 26,200 13,682 94,668
Low1 Total jobs Jobs at risk Jobs at risk #jobs in firms with <100 employees #jobs in firms with 100-499 employees #jobs in firms with 500+ employees
Healthcare 1,193,261 211,342 17.7% 456,955 232,813 503,492
Agriculture 2,927 500 17.1% 2,656 - 271
Management 111,031 17,008 15.3% 3,293 10,048 97,690
Government 1,102,818 147,329 13.4% - - 1,102,818
Professional services 605,087 76,148 12.6% 318,232 79,183 207,672
Finance & insurance 384,915 46,997 12.2% 60,399 39,410 285,105
1. Does not include others
Rank Category
Annual Avg
Receipts
2018-19
$Billion
Avg Percent
2018-19
1 Automotive Dealers 4.00 14.4%
2 General Merchandise Stores 3.71 13.3%
3 Restaurants and Catering Services 2.74 9.8%
4 Lease or Rental of Commercial Real Property 1.91 6.8%
5 Hotel/Motel Accommodations 1.72 6.2%
6 Food & Beverage Stores 1.34 4.8%
7 Building Materials Dealers 1.31 4.7%
8 Wholesale Dealers 1.09 3.9%
9 Amusement & Recreation Services 1.05 3.8%
10 Apparel & Accessory Stores 1.01 3.6%
11 Manufacturing 0.75 2.7%
17 Consumer Electronics, Computers, Music Stores 0.63 2.3%
18 Home Furniture, Furnishings & Equipment 0.59 2.1%
19 Utilities, Electric, Gas, Water, Sewer 0.56 2.0%
20 Rental of Tangible Personal Property 0.41 1.5%
21 Automotive Accessories & Parts 0.37 1.3%
22 Automobile Repair & Services 0.35 1.2%
Total 23.55 84.4%
Tax receipts by industry
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For more information contact:
Mark Wilson at [email protected]
Dr. Jerry Parrish at [email protected]