Albania _ All900 Croatia HRK48 France__ __€6.50 Ireland _.€6.50 latvia __ €6.50 Netherlands €6.50 Rcmanla.c.., __..RON29 Spain. __ €6.50Austria €6.50 Cyprus.._.._ €6.50 Germany €6.50 Israel NIS43.00 lebanon lE13.000 Nigeria Naira 1,700 Saudi Arabia Rials45 Sweden SKR66Bahrain Dinar4.50 Czech Rep (ZK199 Gibraltar GIP4.70 Italy €6.50 lithuania _ €6.50 Norway NKr66 Serbia RSD720 Switzerland CHFIOBelgium €6.50 Denmark DKr53 Greece €6.50 Kazakhstan ..KZT1,285 luxembourg €6.50 Poland PlN29 Slovakia €6.50 Turkey Tl18Bosnia BAM16 Estonia €6.50 Hungary HUF2,170 Kenya KShs680 Malta €6.50 Portugal CONT ....• €6.50 Slovenia €6.50 UAE Dirhams 45Bulgaria BGN13 Finland €6.50 Iceland IKr'B60 Kuwait... Dinar3.60 Montene9ro €6.50 Qatar Rials45 South Africa R70.00 UK E5.00

OnthecoverAsynchronised upturn in theworld economyis underway.Thank stimulus, not thepopulists: leader, page 9.What lies behind theimprovement, pages 18-20.AsJanetYellen's Fed raisesrates, political uncertaintyhangs overthe centra l bankpage65 '

The Econom;st onlineDailyanalysis and opinion tosupplement the print edition, plusaudio and video, and a dailychartEconomist.com

E-mail: newsletters andmobile editionEconomist.comjemail

Printedition: available online by7pmLondontime each ThursdayEconomist.comjprintAudio edition: available onlineto download each FridayEconomist.comjaudioedition

••Volume 422 Number 9032

Published since September1B43to take part in "a severe con test betweenintelligence, which presses jorwcrd, andan unworthy, timid ignorance obstructingour progresso "

Editorialoffices in Londan and also:A~lanta. B~ijin~, Berlin, Brussels, Cairo, Chicago,tìma, MeX1co(lty. Moscow, Mumbai, Nairobi,New,Delhi, NewYork, Paris, San Frandsco,Sào Paulo, Seoul, Shanghai, Singapore, Tokyo,Washington OC

6 The world this week

Leaders9 The world economyOn the rise

10 Modi triumphsUttar hegemony

10 Dutch electionsDomino theory

11 Brexit and ScotlandLeave one union, loseanother

12 Aid to fragile statesThe Central Africa nconundrum

Letters14 On Brexit, the news,

Chile, Singapore,diamonds

Briefing18 The world economy

From deprivation todaffodils

Europe21 Dutch elections

The centre holds22 The EU-Turkey deal

Out of sight24 Poland and Brussels

Pyromaniac politics25 Ireland's lame duck

Jaded isle26 Charlemagne

Anew identity politics

Britain27 Scottishindependence

Sturgeon the brave28 Artide 50

Scotched

Middle East and Africa29 Centra l African Republic

Another CARcrash30 South Sudan

Death spiral30 Libya's war

Coasta l retreats31 South Africa and Russia

Say my name32 Saudi Arabia

Farewell, my guardian

United States33 Welfare

American exceptionalism34 Counter-terrorism

Loosening the rules35 Prison labour

A$1bn industry36 Chuck's gun shop

Anything you want36 Missing servicemen

Raiders of the lost barks38 Lexington

Health care: a presidentialdeal breaker

The Americas39 Mexico

The rise of a populist40 Bello

Mauricio Macri's gradualism42 Guatemala

Deaths foretold

Asia43 South Korea

Park impeached44 Gambling in Australia

The biggest losers45 Indian state elections

A lotus in full flower46 Property rights in India

An obsession withexpropriation

46 Post-war Sri LankaStill riven

47 Sri Lanka's disappearedNo closure

48 BanyanAwar on street food

China49 China and South Korea

Nationalism unleashed50 Legal reform

Striving for a civil code50 Football

New rules, new dodges

International51 The pope's travails

15he Catholic?52 The Vatican bank

Man of God v Mammon

Scòxit Scots should readBrexit as an argument forremaining in Britain, notleaving it: leader, page 11.Scotland's first ministerdemands a new referendum,page 27

Dutch elections GeertWilders's poor showing doesnot necessarily mean thatMarine LePen willlose: leader,page 10. The Netherlandsbreathes a sigh of relief. Nowcomes the hard part, page 21.1dentity politics is not thepreserve ofthe far right, asthe Dutch election shows:Charlemagne, paqe ze

Helping fragile statesProviding foreign aid tochaotic countries is bothnecessary and hazardous. Itcan be don e better: leader,page 12. The World Bank usedto shun war zones. Nowit istrying to help before theshooting stops, page 29

~~Contents continues overleaf

3

~---------------------

4 , Contents The Economist March 18th 2017

Microsoft under Nadella Theworld's biggest software firmhas overhauled its culture. Butgetting cloud computing rightis hard, page 53

The pope Francis is facingdown opposition frorntraditionalists and Vaticanbureaucrats. But on clericalsex-abuse, he seems weak,page 51

Citigroup Adecade of agonyis almost over. Butthe bankneeds a bolder plan forwhathappensnext:Schumpete~page 62

Business53 Microsoft

Head in the cloud54 Intel buys Mobileye

The road ahead57 Disneyland Paris

Taking the Mickey?58 Elon Musk and batteries

Megawatts and tweets59 The pharma business

Abetter pill from China59 The canna bis industry

Weed killer?60 The Olympics

Gamesmanship62 Schumpeter

Citigroup's agonies

Finance and economics65 The Federal Reserve

Up, up and away66 The Fed and banks

The public's interest67 African wealth funds

Buried treasure67 Trade deals

KORUSof disapproval68 Butionwood

Building a beta mousetrap69 Oil prices

Fulltank69 Iceland's capital controls

Hope springs eternal70 Free exchange

In praise of immigration

Sdence and technology71 Yellow fever in Brazil

Monkey business72 Optics

The bug-eyed view73 Astronomy

Flashes ofinspiration74 Subterranean maps

DNAgoes underground74 Animal behaviour

Spider bites

Books and arts75 Elizabeth Bishop

The art of losing76 Hit makers

Recipes for success76 Mohsin Hamid's tiction

Black door77 The creative spark

Inside your head77 Syrian music

High notes78 Johnson

Subversive facts

80 Economic and tinandalindicatorsStatistics on 42 economies,plus a closer look atemployment

Obituary82 Gustav Metzger

Art as weapon

Aliens Abatch of strangesignals from the sky might,just possibly, be evidence ofextra-terrestriallife, page 73

Subscription servicefor our full range of subscription offers,including digital only or print and digitalcombined, visitEconomist.comjoffersor call the telephone number provided below:Telephone: +44 (O) 8451200983 or+44 (O) 2075768448Subscription for 1 year (51 issues)PrintonlyEuro-zone countriesDenmarkHungaryNorwayPolandSwedenSwitzerlandTurkeyOther Europe (ex UK)

Middle East - GCCSouth AfricaMiddle East and Africa

€229DKr1,709

HUF78,042NKr1,839PLN1,011SKr 2,089SFr 296TL814€229

US$352ZAR4,670, US$285

US$285

Principal commerciaI offices: '25 StJames's Street, London SW1A1HGTel: +442078307000

Rue de l'Athénée 321206 Geneva, SwitzerlandTel: +4122 566 2470

750 3rd Avenue, 5th Floor, NewYork, NY10017Tel: +1212 541 0500

1301 Cityplaza Four,12Taikoo Wan Raad, Taikoo Shing, Hong KongTel: +852 2585 3888

Othercammerdaloffices:Chicago, Dubai, Frankfurt, Los Angeles,Paris, San Frandsca and Singapare

~?EFC'PEFCj04-31-1267

PEFCcertified

This cOPY of The Economistis printed on paper sourcedfrom sustainably managedforests certified by PEFCwww.pefe.org

OrecycleIO2017The Economist Newspaper Limited. All rights reserved. Neitherthis publication nor anypartofit may be reproduced, stored in a retrievalsystem, ortransmitted in anyform orbyany means, electrcnic. mechanical, photocopying, recording or other-wise. without the prior permission ofThe Economist Newspaper limited. Published everyweek, exceptfor a year-end doubleissue, byThe EconomistNewspaper Limited. The Economistisa registered trademark ofThe Economist Newspaper Umited. Printed byVogel Druck und Medienservice GmbH, teibnìzstraj;e 5, 97204 Hocbberq. Deutschtand. France, Numéro Commission Paritaire: 68832 GB. Encartd'abonnementde deux pages sltué entre les folios 10et 1]0. Rapp. Italia: IMDsrl ViaGuido da Velate 1120162Milano Aut. Trib. MI272 del 13/04/88 Poste Italiane SpA· Sped Abb Post DL353/2003 (conv. L.27/2/2004 n.46) artl comma 1OC8Milano, Dir. Resp. Domenico lassinari