Raymond James 40 Institutional Investors Conference/media/Files/T/Toll... · 2019-03-18 ·...
Transcript of Raymond James 40 Institutional Investors Conference/media/Files/T/Toll... · 2019-03-18 ·...
Raymond James 40th Institutional Investors Conference
March 4, 2019
Raymond James 40th Institutional Investors Conference
March 4, 2019
Information presented herein for the first quarter ended January 31, 2019 issubject to finalization of the Company's regulatory filings, related financial andaccounting reporting procedures and external auditor procedures.
This presentation contains or may contain forward-looking statements within themeaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended and Section 21Eof the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. One can identify thesestatements by the fact that they do not relate to matters of a strictly historical orfactual nature and generally discuss or relate to future events. These statementscontain words such as “anticipate,” “estimate,” “expect,” “project,” “intend,” “plan,”“believe,” “may,” “can,” “could,” “might,” “should” and other words or phrases ofsimilar meaning. Such statements may include, but are not limited to, informationrelated to anticipated operating results; home deliveries; financial resources andcondition; changes in revenues; changes in profitability; changes in margins;changes in accounting treatment; cost of revenues; selling, general andadministrative expenses; interest expense; inventory write-downs; home warrantyand construction defect claims; unrecognized tax benefits; anticipated tax refunds;sales paces and prices; effects of home buyer cancellations; growth and expansion;joint ventures in which we are involved; anticipated results from our investments inunconsolidated entities; the ability to acquire land and pursue real estateopportunities; the ability to gain approvals and open new communities; the abilityto sell homes and properties; the ability to deliver homes from backlog; the abilityto secure materials and subcontractors; the ability to produce the liquidity andcapital necessary to expand and take advantage of opportunities; and legalproceedings, investigations and claims.
Any or all of the forward-looking statements included in our reports or publicstatements made by us are not guarantees of future performance and may turn outto be inaccurate. This can occur as a result of incorrect assumptions or as aconsequence of known or unknown risks and uncertainties. Many factorsmentioned in our reports or public statements made by us, such as marketconditions, government regulation, and the competitive environment, as we; as the
factors listed below, will be important in determining our future performance.Consequently, actual results may differ materially from those that might beanticipated from our forward-looking statements.
The factors that could cause actual results to differ from those expressed or impliedby our forward-looking statements include, among others: demand fluctuations inthe housing industry; adverse changes in economic conditions in markets where weconduct our operations and where prospective purchasers of our homes live;increases in cancellations of existing agreements of sale; the competitiveenvironment in which we operate; changes in interest rates or our credit ratings;the availability of capital; uncertainties in the capital and securities markets; theability of customers to obtain financing for the purchase of homes; the availabilityand cost of land for future growth; the ability of the participants in various jointventures to honor their commitments; effects of governmental legislation andregulation; effects of increased taxes or governmental fees; weather conditions; theavailability and cost of labor and building and construction materials; the cost ofraw materials; the outcome of various product liability claims, litigation andwarranty claims; the effect of the loss of key management personnel; changes in taxlaws and their interpretation; construction delays; and the seasonal nature of ourbusiness. For a more detailed discussion of these factors, see the risk factors in theinformation under the captions “Risk Factors” and “Management’s Discussion andAnalysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations” in our most recentannual report on Form 10-K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission andsubsequent filings with the SEC.
From time to time, forward-looking statements also are included in our periodicreports on Forms 10-K, 10-Q and 8-K, in press releases, in presentations, on ourwebsite and in other materials released to the public.
This discussion is provided as permitted by the Private Securities Litigation ReformAct of 1995, and all of our forward-looking statements are expressly qualified intheir entirety by the cautionary statements contained or referenced in this section.
STATEMENT OF FORWARD‐LOOKING INFORMATION
2
OVERVIEW
3 *From Fortune magazine, January 22, 2019 ©2019 Time Inc. FORTUNE and “World's Most Admired Companies®” are registered trademarks of Time Inc. and are used under license. FORTUNE and Time Inc. are not affiliated with, and do not endorse products or services of Toll Brothers, Inc.
† At January 16, 2019
#1 LUXURY BRAND
Nation’s leading luxury home builder Nationally recognized, award-winning brand Founded in 1967 and listed on NYSE since 1986 Average Q1 FY 2019 delivered home price of $862,000 Average price is double that of most other public homebuilders Fortune Magazine's World’s Most Admired Companies –
#1 Homebuilder 5 years in a row: 2015 - 2019*
SOLID MANAGEMENT & FINANCIAL BASE
Member of the 2018 FORTUNE 500 Strong balance sheet and credit ratings Approx. $1.9 BN of available liquidity at Q1 2019 Executive & director beneficial ownership of approx. 9.7%†
Average senior management tenure of ~17 years
GEOGRAPHIC & PRODUCT DIVERSITY
Builds in 22 states and approximately 50 markets Balanced footprint across the East, West, and South Strong land position – Own or Control 54,000 lots Urban presence in NYC, Metro DC, & Philadelphia Serves urban/suburban, luxury move-up, millennial, empty nester,
& active-adult buyers and renters in select markets
THE #1 BRAND IN LUXURY HOME BUILDING
4*From Fortune magazine, January 22, 2019 ©2019 Time Inc. FORTUNE and “World's Most Admired Companies®” are registered trademarks
of Time Inc. and are used under license. FORTUNE and Time Inc. are not affiliated with, and do not endorse products or services of Toll Brothers, Inc.
$1.48 $1.88
$2.67
$3.91 $4.17
$5.17
$5.81
$7.14
TOTAL REVENUES($ in billions)
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Fiscal Year
3 Months Ended January 31, Fiscal Year Ended October 31,
($ in millions), except Avg Prices 2019 2018 % Change 2018 2017 % Change
Contracts
Units 1,379 1,822 (24%) 8,519 8,175 4%
Dollars $1,163 $1,690 (31%) $7,604 $6,828 11%
Avg price ($ in 000s) $844 $928 (9%) $893 $835 7%
Backlog
Units 5,954 6,250 (5%) 6,105 5,851 4%
Dollars $5,367 $5,576 (4%) $5,523 $5,062 9%
Avg price ($ in 000s) $901 $892 1% $905 $865 5%
Deliveries
Units 1,530 1,423 8% 8,265 7,151 16%
Dollars $1,319 $1,175 12% $7,143 $5,815 23%
Avg price ($ in 000s) $862 $826 4% $864 $813 6%
Earnings Per Share $0.76 $0.83 (8%) $4.85 $3.17 53%
Net Income $112,050 $132,107 (15%) $748,151 $535,495 40%
TOLL BROTHERS RESULTS
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U.S. HOUSING MARKET
PERSONAL BALANCE SHEETS IMPROVING
Unemployment rate at record lows / consumer confidence near highs Mortgage rates still low. Affordability is solid Purchase decision is a confidence-sensitive issue for our buyer Rising home values and stock market strengthen personal balance sheets
CONSTRAINED SUPPLY
Fewer land entitlements processed for several years Inventory/lot shortages in some markets Constrained capital access favors largest builders Existing home supply, on average, is 40 years old
DEMANDEQUATION
Continued population growth through recession and recovery Increasing household formations Seven years of pent-up demand releasing Homeownership rate rising-still below historic norms
MARKET CONDITIONS
Economy remains supportive of housing Increasing volumes of new home production but still below long-term averages U.S. market has softened starting in second half of 2018 due to higher home
prices and mortgage rates
7
WELL‐POSITIONED FOR KEY TRENDS
8
REGIONAL GROWTH
Expanded in California and Nevada Expanded in Texas & Colorado Entered Seattle and Boise Maintained dominance in affluent core markets from
Washington DC to Boston Establishing a presence in Portland & Salt Lake City
URBAN GROWTH
City Living presence in NYC and North Jersey Entered the Metro Washington DC market Exploring additional cities Building urban rentals Seeking urban infill/re-use opportunities
DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS
Expanding Active Adult to new markets Expanding Toll’s rental business Designing more homes attractive to multi-
generational buyers Reaching affluent millennials with targeted products
1970-2007 2008-2018*
Annual Shortfall
Average Annual Production
Source: U.S. Census Bureau*As of February 26, 2019
Total estimated construction shortfall (concentrated in single family) of 7.5 million houses from 2008-2018
Actual Average Annual Housing
Starts
Average Annual Housing Starts
BASIC DEMOGRAPHICS DRIVE AN UNDER SUPPLIED INDUSTRY
9
1,585,000
903,000
682,000
10
NATIONWIDE FOOTPRINT POSITIONSUS FOR GROWTH
*As of January 31, 2019**Toll Brothers Apartment Living only
22 STATES, 50 MARKETS
North
Mid-Atlantic
South
West
California
City Living
R E G I O N S /S e l l i n g C o m m u n i t i e s
55
60
70
86
41
5
Total: 317
San FranciscoSan Jose
Los Angeles
San Diego
Seattle
Phoenix
Dallas
Denver
Miami
Chicago
New York City
Boston
Charlotte
Raleigh
Ft . MyersWest Palm Beach
Naples
Las Vegas
Detroit
Palm Springs
Jupiter
Reno
Jacksonville
Houston
Tucson
Fort Collins
Boca Raton
Sacramento
Orlando
Wilmington
Princeton
Austin
Hartford
Boise
Atlanta**
Portland
Salt Lake CityBaltimore
Washington DC
Philadelphia
14%
14%
16%
19%
34%
3%
FYE 2018 Backlog($)
GEOGRAPHICALLY DIVERSIFIED PORTFOLIO
11 North Mid-Atlantic South West California City Living
14%
16%
15%
20%
31%
4%15%
16%
16%34%
15%
3%
FYE 2018 Lots Owned
FY 2018 Revenue($)
$299
$360 $380 $383 $393 $399 $407 $413 $425$454
$481
$640
$893 $862
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
$900
$1,000
DR Horton Beazer NVR M/I Hovnanian KB Home Meritage Lennar Pulte TaylorMorrison
MDC TRI Pointe TollBrothersFY 2018
TollBrothers Q1
FY 2019
Average Delivered Home Price*($000)
ONLY NATIONAL HOMEBUILDER FOCUSED ON LUXURY MARKET
Toll’s main competitors are small private builders, not the larger public builders.
* Updated based on most recent reported fiscal-year-end deliveries.12
TOLL HOME PRICES Q1 FY 2019*(by units delivered)
2%
54%20%
24%
Less than $300,000
$300,000 to $749,999
$750,000 to $999,999
Over $1,000,000
*Numbers may not add due to rounding in units* Through January 31, 2019
56%Under
$750,000
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14
• Move-up
• Empty Nester
• Active Adult
• Second Home
• Urban-Infill
• Urban Redevelopment
• Large-Scale Master Plans
• High-Rise Condos
• Suburban High Density
• Urban & Suburban Rental
• Student Housing Rental
THE WIDEST VARIETY OF HOMES IN THE INDUSTRY
63%15%
19%
2%
FY 2018
89%
10%1%
FY 2000
EVOLVING PRODUCT DIVERSIFICATION(by units delivered)
Single Family Attached Age Qualified City Living15
18%
22%
17%
26%
16%
2%
FY 2018
35%
33%
11%
14%
7%
FY 2000
GEOGRAPHIC DIVERSIFICATION(by units delivered)
16 North Mid-Atlantic South West California City Living
14%
16%
15%
20%
31%
4%
FY 2018
35%
33%
12%
11%
9%
FY 2000
GEOGRAPHIC DIVERSIFICATION(by dollars delivered)
17 North Mid-Atlantic South West California City Living
The Reserve at Franklin Lakes, Franklin Lakes, NJMOVE ‐UP
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EMPTY NESTER
19
Toll Brothers at Whitewing, Gilbert, AZ
ACTIVE ADULT
20
Regency at Creekside, Gainesville, CA
Altair by Toll Brothers, Irvine, CAMASTER PLANNED
21
SECOND HOME Boulders at Somersett, Reno, NV
22
URBAN REDEVELOPMENT Maxwell Place, Hoboken, NJ
23
24
URBAN MIXED USE Pierhouse at Brooklyn Bridge Park, Brooklyn, NY
SUBURBAN HIGH DENSITY
25
Metro Crossing, Fremont, CA Dawson Square, Bothell, Washington
Brownstones at Edge on Hudson, Sleepy Hollow, NYEisenhower Square, Alexandria, VA
URBAN & SUBURBAN RENTAL
26
The Morgan at Provost Square, Jersey City, NJ
Parc Plymouth Meeting, Plymouth Meeting, PA
The Kendrick, Needham, MA
URBAN INFILL
27
TOLL BROTHERS CITY LIVING
* As January 31, 2019
DISTINCTIVE PRODUCT
Focus on buildings in the 50 – 200 unit range located in upscale neighborhoods
Develop differentiated products based on granular analysis of each neighborhood
Not focused on super luxury, targeting $2,000 -$2,500 psf in NYC and $800 - $1,200 psf in Hoboken and Jersey City, NJ
SUCCESSFUL URBAN TRACK RECORD
Formed in 2003 to leverage luxury brand Follows demographic trends of Millennials, more
families and Boomers living in cities Communities in NYC, North Jersey’s Gold Coast,
Philadelphia, & Urban Metro DC
BROAD EXPERIENCE
Completed construction on 39 buildings totaling approx. 4,800 units*
Selling from 4 buildings, totaling approx. 500 units* Future pipeline consists of 2 buildings, totaling approx.
320 units* Exploring Boston, Los Angeles, San Francisco, & Miami
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FOCUS ON LAND
* As of January 31, 2019
CAREFULLY MANAGED INVENTORY
Protects against potential land shortages in lot-constrained markets All land deals approved at corporate
headquarters by senior management Most land bought post-approvals
ACQUISITION
Control 54,000 home sites, approximately 38% via options* Operate in most difficult land approval
markets in U.S. Skilled in land acquisition, approvals, &
development across all markets
DEVELOPMENT
One of U.S.’s largest land developers In-house engineering company, ESE,
manages site design & land improvements Every ESE plan is designed for approvals,
constructability & most importantly, the end use…a luxury home community
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BUILDING ON A SOLID LAND POSITION
33,118
39,146 40,844
48,058
60,189
83,126
91,207
73,768
59,251
39,784
31,917
34,85237,497
40,350
48,62847,167
44,253
48,837 48,311
53,422 54,013
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Q22006
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Q12019
Owned Optioned
20,522(38%)
33,491(62%)
Lots Owned and Optioned
17,140 Finished Lots at 1/31/19
Fiscal Year End30
HOMEBUILDER SCHOOL QUALITY INDEX
9.06
8.40
7.306.89 6.82 6.67
6.335.87
5.59 5.47 5.47 5.44
4.754.20 4.11
3.66
1.17
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
10.00
TOL TMHC MHO TPH CAA HOV PHM NVR LEN MTH WLH BZH MDC DHI CCS KBH LGIH
Average School District Rating(0-10 Scale)
Source: Raymond James, “’Back to School, Episode IV’: Our Expanded Land Analysis of Public Homebuilders” U.S. Research, October 20, 201531
• Toll’s luxury systems developed over 50 years
• Buyers choose from hundreds of structural and designer options
• In Q1 FY 2019, the average buyer added approximately $170,000 in options and premiums, consistent with prior year at approximately 20% of base price
• Toll enjoys benefits of high-volume materials purchasing
• Size provides Toll with competitive advantage vs. small builders
• Toll Architecture systemizes high-volume home production
CUSTOMIZED HOMES BUILT USING HIGH–VOLUME PRODUCTION TECHNIQUES
32
Reserve at Franklin Lakes, Franklin Lakes, NJ
* Through January 31, 2019
TOLL INTEGRATED SYSTEMSPanel & Truss Plant
• Manufactures and distributes lumber packages, wall panels, floor panels, roof & floor trusses, interior & exterior trim, interior & exterior doors, signature millwork, and windows
• Operates five plants in suburban Pennsylvania, Virginia, Indiana, and Massachusetts
• Supplied components for approximately 3,200 homes in FY 2018 from Massachusetts through the Southeast and Michigan & Illinois in the Mid-West
• Builds more than 300 different home plans with multiple elevations and hundreds of options
• Also supplies material for attached for-sale, rental apartments, and urban high-rise
• Provides “Turnkey” framing services
• Improves timeline, quality, costs, and reduces waste
• Reduces dependence on skilled carpenters in times of labor shortage
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• 21% of buyers paid cash
• Our buyers have strong credit profiles with an average Q1 FY 2019 FICO score of 762
• Average LTV of 68% Q1 FY 2019
• 39% of buyers used jumbo mortgages in Q1 FY 2019
• TBI served 54% of Toll buyers using mortgages in Q1 FY 2019
• Pre-sells loans individually to minimize risk
• Long term rate locks available
STRONG BUYER PROFILE/TBI MORTGAGE*
Toll Brothers at Whitewing, Gilbert, AZ
34* Through January 31, 2019
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DIVERSIFYING INCOME STREAMS
Suburban Home Building (For Sale)
Land Sales &Development
City Living(Condo for Sale)
Apartment Living(Rental)*
Ancillary Businesses
- 50 markets in 21 states
• Move up
• Empty nester
• Active Adult
• Second home
• Master-planned resort style
• Suburban high density
- Gibraltar Real Estate Capital
- TBI Mortgage
- Golf Course Development & Management
- Toll Landscaping
- TBI Smart Home Solutions, Inc.
- Westminster Title
- Located in Urban and Suburban locations
- 5 projects (2,086 units) stabilized
- 4 projects (1,547 units) leasing
- 10 projects (2,898 units) under development
- 35 projects (11,600 units) in the pipeline
- Manhattan, Brooklyn, and Queens, NYC
- Hoboken and Jersey City, NJ
- Metro Washington, DC
- Philadelphia, PA
- Lot sales to 3rd
party builders
• Northgrove at Spring Creek (TX)
• Woodson's Reserve (TX)
• Travisso (TX)
• Sienna South (TX)
* As of January 31, 2019
$49,513
$66,630
$107,333
$88,692$98,966
$169,375
$147,700
$0
$15,000
$30,000
$45,000
$60,000
$75,000
$90,000
$105,000
$120,000
$135,000
$150,000
$165,000
$180,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Other Income Joint Venture Income
36
OTHER INCOME AND JOINT VENTURE INCOME($ Thousands)
$147.7 million of pre-tax income in FY 2018
85,240
62,460
FY
TOLL APARTMENT LIVING/CAMPUS LIVING*
37* As of January 31, 2019
COMPLEMENT FOR-SALE BUSINESS
Investing in Apartment & Student Housing rental development to maximize operational synergies
Building on Toll Brothers brand name and skills A hedge against For-Sale cyclicality Own or control land for approximately 18,000 units
BROAD EXPERIENCE
Developed & operate 2,100 units Leasing up at 4 communities with 1,500 units Under construction at 10 projects of 2,900 units from
Massachusetts to Atlanta, Dallas, TX & Orange, CA Developed and sold 418 Campus Living units (Univ. of
Maryland) and 1,055 apartment rental units (in Herndon, VA and Westborough, MA)
STRATEGIC GROWTH
Control land for ~12,000 future apartment & student living units in Northeast/Mid-Atlantic, Texas, California, Georgia, Phoenix, & Miami
Expect to invest additional $100 - $200 million Combine premier locations with luxury, for-sale finishes,
services, and amenities Apartments accounted for ~$57 million of pre-tax income in
FY 2018
$250
$420 $400
$250
$350
$450
$400
$800
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Public Debt (Senior) Bank Debt
Fiscal Year End $ millions
*As of January 31, 2019†Bank Debt includes our $800 MM term loan due FY 2024 and no outstanding draws on our $1.295 BN credit facility due FY 2021
MAINTAIN CONSERVATIVE DEBT MATURITIES*ACCESSING CAPITAL FOR GROWTH
SUPERIOR CAPITAL MARKET ACCESSSenior/Corporate Credit Ratings
Fitch Inc. BBB- (Stable)
Standard & Poor’s BB+ (Stable)
Moody’s Ba1 (Stable)
38
†
CAPITALIZATION*
Toll Brothers, Inc.
First Huntingdon Finance Corp. Toll Brothers Finance Corp.
* As of January 31, 2019
† The Company finished the period ending 1/31/2019 with $1.12 billion available under its revolving credit facility.
$1.295 BN Revolving Credit Facility $800 MM Term LoanDue May 2021 † Due November 2023
Commitment Commitment■ Citi $100 MM ■ SunTrust $125 MM■ Deutsche Bank $100 MM ■ Sumitomo Mitsui $125 MM■ Mizuho Bank $100 MM ■ Wells Fargo $125 MM■ PNC $100 MM ■ US Bank $100 MM■ SunTrust $100 MM ■ Capital One $75 MM■ Wells Fargo $100 MM ■ The Bank of New York $50 MM■ Capital One $75 MM ■ Fifth Third Bank $50 MM■ Sumitomo Mitsui $75 MM ■ PNC $50 MM■ US Bank $75 MM ■ Comerica $25 MM■ BB&T $50 MM ■ People's United $25 MM■ Comerica $50 MM ■ TD Bank $25 MM■ Fifth Third Bank $50 MM ■ Texas Capital Bank $25 MM■ Regions Bank $50 MM $800 MM■ TD Bank $50 MM■ The Bank of New York $50 MM■ Citizens Bank $50 MM■ Texas Capital Bank $35 MM■ Bank of the West $30 MM■ Flagstar Bank $30 MM■ Associated Bank $25 MM
$1,295 MM
Senior Notes
Series Coupon Principal Maturity (yrs)
November 2019 6.750% $250 MM 0.75 years
February 2022 5.875% $420 MM 3.04 years
April 2023 4.375% $400 MM 4.21 years
January 2024 5.625% $250 MM 4.96 years
November 2025 4.875% $350 MM 6.79 years
March 2027 4.875% $450 MM 8.12 years
February 2028 4.350% $400 MM 9.05 years
5.139% $2,520 MM 5.57 years
Source Coupon Outstanding Maturity (yrs)
Senior Debt (Public) 5.139% $2,520 MM 5.57 years
Bank Debt 3.391% $ 976 MM 4.31 years
Total 4.651% $3,496 MM 5.22 years
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WHY TOLL BROTHERS?
STRONG FINANCIAL BASE
Strong balance sheet and credit ratings Approximately $1.9 BN of available liquidity at Q1 FY 2019 No corporate debt maturities until November 2019
STRONG DEMOGRAPHICTRENDS
Serving the nation's growing number of affluent households Strongest buyer credit profile in the industry Millennials entering home buying years Increasing household formations
GEOGRAPHIC PRODUCT DIVERSITY
Strong land position – Own or Control 54,000 lots* Balanced footprint across the East, West and South Diversified move-up, active adult, millennial, and high-density product lines A homebuilder with urban condo, land sales, rental, and ancillary business
revenue sources
WELL-ESTABLISHED BRAND
A proven management team with an established track record The dominant player with few competitors in the luxury market Nationally recognized, award-winning brand Highly service-oriented culture
* As of January 31, 2019
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