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Transcript of Rapport: Capital for the FutureCapital for the Future: Saving and Investment in an Interdependent...
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7/30/2019 Rapport: Capital for the FutureCapital for the Future: Saving and Investment in an Interdependent World
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GloBAl DeveloPmeNT HorIzoNS
Capital for the FutureSaing and Instnt in
an Intdpndnt Wd
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Global Development Horizons
Capital for the Future: Saving and
Investment in an Interdependent World
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Global Development Horizons
Capital for the Future: Saving and
Investment in an Interdependent World
THE WORLD BANK
Washington, D.C.
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2013 International Bank or Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank
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AttrbutonWorld Bank. 2013 Capital or the Future: Saving and Investment in an Interdependent World.
Global Development Horizons. Washington, DC: World Bank. doi:10.1596/978-0-8213-9635-3. License:
Creative Commons Attribution CC BY 3.0
TranslatonsI you create a translation o this work, please add the ollowing disclaimer along with the
attribution: This translation was not created by The World Bank and should not be considered an ofcial
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All queries on rights and licenses should be addressed to the Oce o the Publisher, The World Bank,
1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; ax: 202-522-2625; e-mail: [email protected].
ISBN (paper): 978-0 -8213-9635-3
ISBN (electronic): 978-0-8213-9955-2
DOI: 10.1596/978-0-8213-9635-3
ISSN: 2221-8416
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Global Development Horizons v
Foreword . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xi
Acknowledgments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xiii
Abbreviations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xv
OveRview 1
Outlooks under the two scenarios . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
Modeling the global dynamics o investment, saving, and capital fows . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
Note . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
Reerences . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
ChAPTeR 1:T emrgng Pattrn of Global instmnt 17
Changing patterns o investment worldwide . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
Long-run drivers o investment around the world . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
The changing ace o uture investment opportunities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40
Transormations in sectoral investment in developing countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44
Conclusion and policy directions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50
Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54
Reerences . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56
ChAPTeR 2:Global Sang n 2030 61
Saving at the aggregate level: Past, present, and uture . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63
A more nuanced view o the uture o saving: Distribution, public nance, old-age support,and other impacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81
Conclusion and policy directions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106
Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107
Reerences . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109
ChAPTeR 3:Captal Flos n t Trd Ag of Fnancal Globalzaton 115
Rates o return around the world . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .119
Changing patterns in net capital fows . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 120
Expanding volumes o gross capital fows to and rom developing countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125
Capital fows and monetary policy spillovers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 135
Contnts
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vi Contents Global Development Horizons
Conclusion and policy implications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 139
Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 144
Reerences . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 147
Boxs
1.1 Dierent terms, dierent rates: Purchasing-power adjusted investment vs. investmentexpressed in national currency . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
1.2 Investment booms are not always associated with sustained growth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
1.3 Investment in human capital can be a source o economic growth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
1.4 Energy project nancing in the Middle East: A multiparty, multimodal approach . . . . . . . . . . 31
1.5 Structural actors can aect the cross-country allocation o investment nancing . . . . . . . . . 36
1.6 Tobins Qcalculations or developing countries suggest positive growth prospects . . . . . . . . 38
1.7 How transient shocks to uncertainty can have a long-lasting impact on investment . . . . . . . 39
1.8 Alternative nancing mechanisms have begun to be adopted in nancing inrastructure . . . . 512.1 A gradual shit in the global distribution o wealth is under way . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69
2.2 The geographically asynchronous demographic transition is driven by cross-countrydierences in some key actors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75
2.3 Literature on modeling the eect o aging on saving at the global level . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78
2.4 Micro analysis is a useul tool or determining likely trends in uture savings . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83
2.5 A global dataset o household censuses provides a nuanced view o saving at themicro level . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97
2.6 The National Transer Accounts project is a valuable source o data on age-relatedpublic transers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99
2.7 The impact o aging on government budgets is claried by breaking it down into itscomponents . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101
3.1 The Third Age o Financial Globalization ollows two previous eras . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .116
3.2 Historically, the dominant net providers and recipients o capital have not been xed . . . . . 122
3.3 Gross capital fow scenarios are based on historical evidence on the relationshipbetween the fows and their determinants . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129
3.4 Encouraged by the continents growth prospects, demographic trends, and improvedinvestment climate, global investors and creditors are increasingly attracted toSub-Saharan Arica . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 132
Fgurs
O.1 Future global saving and investment rates will remain airly stable in the gradualconvergence scenario, but this stability belies substantial shits in the relative
shares o developing and high-income countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
O.2 Developing countries will represent more than hal o global capital stocks by 2030in the gradual convergence scenario, compared with about a third in 2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
O.3 Increased earning power will be the greatest driver o saving by Mexican households . . . 4
O.4 Annual inrastructure needs over the next 20 years are likely to be greatest inEast and South Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
O.5 By 2030, nearly hal or more o gross capital infows will likely go todeveloping countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
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Global Development Horizons Contents vii
O.6 Schematic diagram describing interactions between saving, investment demand,and investment nancing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
1.1 Gross investment in developing countries has increased in absolute terms (panel a)
and as a share o global investment (panel b) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20B1.1.1 Dierentials in investment rates (panel a) and capital-output ratios (panel b) are
greater when measured in PPP terms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
1.2 Developing countries rising investment rates (panel a) and growing share oglobal output (panel b) have contributed to their increased share o investment
in global output . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
1.3 The rising share o developing countries investment in global output is due tomore than just changes in China and India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
1.4 Investment rates among Sub-Saharan Arican countries o dierent income levelshave ollowed distinct paths . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
B1.2.1 Many countries experience weak growth ollowing an investment boom . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
1.5 Global manuacturing investment tends to be concentrated in lower-middle-income
countries (panel a), with China currently accounting or the vast majority oinvestment in those countries (panel b) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
1.6 The public sector share o output is lower in high-income countries than inother country groups (panel a), but the public sector share o investment hasconverged among country groups (panel b) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
1.7 Private sector commitments to inrastructure have risen over time, both in majordeveloping countries (panel a) and across most inrastructure subsectors (panel b) . . . . . 28
1.8 Inrastructure investment shares o GDP declined rapidly in major Latin Americaneconomies in the late 1980s and have remained subdued in subsequent years . . . . . . . . 29
B1.3.1 Investment in human capital relative to physical capital in high-income anddeveloping countries, 199099 to 200010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
1.9 Adjusting capital stocks by eciency-adjusted units o labor results in dierentdistributions compared to comparing capital stocks alone . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
1.10 Investment rates and nancial sector development in developed and developingcountries have evolved similarly . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
1.11 A positive relationship exists between investment and institutional quality . . . . . . . . . . . 37
B1.6.1 Tobins average Qis higher on average in lower-income developing countries,refecting market expectations o greater growth potential . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
B1.7.1 Investment rate response to increased uncertainty in high-income anddeveloping countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
1.12 Total investment (panel a) and investment share o global output (panel b) willincrease in developing relative to high-income economies in the gradualconvergence scenario . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40
1.13 Investment rates in many developing countries will trend downward in the gradualconvergence scenario, but remain airly stable in high-income countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41
1.14 The yield on loanable unds will rise more rapidly in high-income countries than inmany developing countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42
1.15 Developing countries will account or more than hal o global capital stocksby 2030 in the gradual convergence scenario (panel b), compared with about athird today (panel a) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
1.16 Total global investment will be higher or developing countries in the rapidconvergence scenario (panel a), but this belies substantial heterogeneity in individualdeveloping-country experiences (panel b) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44
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viii Contents Global Development Horizons
1.17 Annual inrastructure investment needs in developing countries will be substantialor the next two decades (panel a), with the greatest needs arising in East and
South Asia (panel b) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
1.18 Inrastructure investment nancing modes have changed over time and will likelyavor greater bond nancing in the uture. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50
2.1 Developing countries have accounted or a growing share o global saving sincearound 2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63
2.2 Both relative size and saving rates have contributed signicantly to the increasedglobal importance o developing countries saving . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64
2.3 Developing countries saving rateshave increased . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64
2.4 The paths o saving rates have diered substantially across major developingeconomies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65
2.5 Saving rates tend to be lower in lower- income countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66
2.6 Household saving varies signicantly by region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67
2.7 Corporate saving in China and India has grown aster than household saving in
recent years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 672.8 The public portion o national saving has fuctuated within a xed range . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68
B2.1.1 The global distribution o national wealth per capita has changed over time . . . . . . . . . . . 70
2.9 Saving rates tend to increase with growth (panel a) and decrease with nancialdevelopment (panel b) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71
2.10 Saving rates tend to decrease with population aging . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71
2.11 By 2020, growth in worlds working-age population will be exclusively determinedby developing countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73
2.12 Birth and death rates have shown distinct trends across regions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74
B2.2.1 Developing countries have made signicant progress in reducing child mortality,although rom dierent starting points and at dierent rates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75
B2.2.2 The gap in ertility rates across regions has narrowed . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76
2.13 The size and timing o the demographic bulge diers across regions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 772.14 Saving rates will decline more slowly in developing countries, and by 2030 those
countries will account or two-thirds o global saving . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79
2.15 China will continue to be dominant in the global saving picture . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80
2.16 Dierences in the demographic transition will translate into dierent savingrate trends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80
2.17 National saving rates (panel a) and share o global saving (panel b), by incomegroups, gradual versus rapid convergence scenario, 201030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81
2.18 National saving rates o Thailand, the Russian Federation, Mexico, and Ghana aresimilar to those o their regions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84
2.19 Projection o age eects on household saving rates in Ghana and the RussianFederation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86
2.20 Demographic change will drive large changes in saving rates in the decades ahead . . . . 862.21 Due to strong growth, the cohort eect will play an important role in the path o
Thailands saving rate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87
2.22 Growth is an important determinant o saving rates: Two scenarios or the RussianFederation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87
2.23 Educational attainment in Mexico has been rising over time . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88
2.24 The saving lie cycle diers signicantly by educational attainment (panel a), butacross all educational levels, young cohorts tend to save more than older cohorts(panel b) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89
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Global Development Horizons Contents ix
2.25 Increased earning power will be the greatest driver o saving by Mexican
households . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90
2.26 The bottom 40 percent o income earners in developing regions are not only
less likely to save than the top 60 percent but are also less likely to save usingormal nancial institutions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92
2.27 The age composition o households varies by age o the household head;
more highly educated individuals are less likely to live in a household headed by
someone younger . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93
2.28 Household size varies by age o the household head, and this relationship varies
somewhat by educational level . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95
2.29 Younger cohorts tend to have smaller amily sizes, but this relationship varies
signicantly across regions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96
B2.5.1 Family size or the rst and latest cohort, points and tted values, Repblica
Bolivariana de Venezuela . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98
2.30 There is wide variation across countries in the extent to which public transers
tend to rise with age . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1003.1 Changes in yields are more muted under the gradual convergence scenario than
under rapid convergence . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121
B3.2.1 Net capital outfows (current account), the United Kingdom and the United
States, 18501945 (panel a) and evolution o the global pattern o current account
balances, 19802010 (panel b) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122
3.2 In the gradual convergence scenario, there will be sizable net capital fows rom
China to high-income countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123
3.3 In the rapid convergence scenario, much o the developing world apart rom
China will be net capital importers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 124
3.4 Gross capital fows have long expanded relatively aster than net fows in
high-income economies, and in recent years a similar trend can be observed
in developing economies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1263.5 International investment positions still refect a large disparity in oreign asset
holdings between advanced and developing countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127
3.6 The relationship between GDP per capita and external balances across countries
is nonlinear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 128
3.7 By 2030, most gross capital fows may go to developing countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129
3.8 Relative to developing countries GDP, gross infows may hold steady or trend
upward, depending on the pace o growth and nancial development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 130
3.9 Small and medium developing countries as well as the BRICs will be important
sources and destinations o capital fows . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131
B3.4.1 Gross capital infows to Sub-Saharan Arica will rise as a share o infows to
developing countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 132
B3.4.2 Cross-border bank loans to Sub-Saharan Arica are on the rise . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134
3.10 Historically, the composition o capital infows has diered between income
groups, with FDI providing stability in fows to developing countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 135
3.11 International assets and oreign exchange trading are mainly denominated in
the U.S. dollar and the euro . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137
3.12 The U.S. dollar is stil l the main currency in global credit markets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 138
3.13 A number o new central bank liquidity swap lines were extended between
December 2007 and December 2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 140
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7/30/2019 Rapport: Capital for the FutureCapital for the Future: Saving and Investment in an Interdependent World
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x Contents Global Development Horizons
Maps
1.1 The geographical distribution o capital stocks has gradually shited todeveloping countries over the past three decades . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
1.2 Capital stocks per worker are now more equally distributed than ever beore . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
Tabls
B1.2.1 Investment booms have occurred in a broad range o developing and high-incomecountries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
1.1 There is signicant heterogeneity in marginal products o capital, at botheconomywide and sectoral levels, across developing countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
B1.4.1 Top ve project nance deals in the Middle East, 2009 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
1.2 Both developing and high-income countries will see a rise in the share o investmentdevoted to the services sector in the uture . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46
2.1 Trends in saving rates dier widely across countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 852.2 Household saving rates dier signicantly along the income distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91
2.3 The prevalence o intergenerational households varies by country income leveland by region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94
B2.5.1 Number o countries with available census data, by region, 19602009 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97
2.4 The path o age-related scal pressures will depend strongly on benet andcoverage levels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102
2.5 Population aging will put severe pressure on some countries publicpension systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104
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