Rapid Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Strategies for the ... Samo… · Gene Brighouse and...

RapidVulnerabilityAssessmentand

AdaptationStrategiesfortheNationalMarineSanctuaryandTerritoryofAmericanSamoa

2017

Coverphotos:NationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministration,OfficeofNationalMarineSanctuaries,NationalMarineSanctuaryofAmericanSamoa

RapidVulnerabilityAssessmentandAdaptationStrategiesfortheNationalMarineSanctuaryandTerritoryofAmericanSamoa

2017

P.O.Box11195BainbridgeIsland,WA98110

Citation:Score,A.,editor.2017.RapidVulnerabilityAssessmentandAdaptationStrategiesfortheNationalMarineSanctuaryandTerritoryofAmericanSamoa.EcoAdapt,BainbridgeIsland,WA.Formoreinformationaboutthisreport,[email protected].

ContributorsAlessandraScore,EcoAdaptRachelM.Gregg,EcoAdaptWhitneyReynier,EcoAdaptLauraHilberg,EcoAdaptJosephPaulin,NationalMarineSanctuaryofAmericanSamoaSaraHutto,GreaterFarallonesNationalMarineSanctuaryCatherineMarzin,OfficeofNationalMarineSanctuariesKelleyA.Tagarino,UniversityofHawai‘iSeaGrantCollegeProgram&AmericanSamoaCommunityCollege(NationalMarineSanctuaryofAmericanSamoaAdvisoryCouncil)AcknowledgementsThisworkwouldnothavebeenpossiblewithouttheinputofworkshopparticipantsthroughoutboththevulnerabilityassessmentworkshopandtheadaptationstrategydevelopmentworkshop.WewouldliketothanktheNationalMarineSanctuaryofAmericanSamoaAdvisoryCouncil(NMSASAC),NationalMarineSanctuaryofAmericanSamoa(NMSAS)SuperintendentGeneBrighouseandDeputySuperintendentAtuatasiLeleiPeau,GreaterFarallonesNationalMarineSanctuary(GFNMS)SuperintendentMariaBrownandCatherineMarzintheOfficeofNationalMarineSanctuaries(ONMS)ClimateLeadforprojectsupport.WewouldliketothankSaraHuttofromtheGFNMSforleadingthevulnerabilityassessmentworkshopandJosephPaulinfromtheNMSASforhelpingwithalllogistics.WewouldliketothanktheNMSASTeamforsupportimplementingtheworkshops,especiallyApuluVeronikaMolio’oMata’utiaMortensonfortranslation.Wewouldliketoespeciallythankthefollowingreviewers:CharlesBirkland,UniversityofHawai‘iatManoa,JeremyRaynal,AmericanSamoaCoralReefAdvisoryGroup(CRAG),KelleyA.Tagarino,NMSASACProjectLead,UniversityofHawai‘iSeaGrantCollegeProgram&AmericanSamoaCommunityCollege(ASCC),MelissaSnover,Ecologist,ScottBurch,NationalParkofAmericanSamoa(NPSA)andMareikeSudek,NMSAS.ThisprojecthasbeenmadepossiblewithsupportoftheNationalMarineSanctuaryFoundation,www.marinesanctuary.org.

ParticipantList:VulnerabilityAssessmentWorkshop(July19-20,2016)SaraHutto,GFNMS(facilitator)GeneBrighouse,NMSAS(Superintendent)AtuatasiLeleiPeau,NMSAS(DeputySuperintendent)ApuluVeronikaMolio’oMata’utiaMortenson,NMSAS(translator)JosephPaulin,NMSAS(workshopcoordinator)MelissaSnover,NMSAS(smallgroupfacilitator)IsabelGaoteoteHalatuituia,NMSAS(notetaker)TanimalieLetuli,NMSAS(notetaker)Participants:ScottBurch,NPSA(NMSASAC) HideyoHatori,NOAACRCP MareikeSudek,CRAG/DMWRMiaComeros,ASEPA SabrinaWoofter,CRAG MotusagaValoso,CRAGCeceliaReid,ASEPA KimMcGuire,CRAG/DMWR JeremyRaynal,CRAGMarianaPato,ASEPA LeiPelle,CRAG TantasiFalanai,DOEFatimaSamafea-Liau,NMFS(NMSASAC)

ParticipantList:AdaptationStrategyWorkshop(September14-15,2016)AlessandraScore,EcoAdapt(facilitator)RachelM.Gregg,EcoAdapt(facilitator)CatherineMarzin,ONMS(presenter)KelleyTagarino,SeaGrant,ASCC,NMSASAC(presenter,smallgroupfacilitator)KimMcGuire,CRAG/DMWR(presenter)GeneBrighouse,NMSAS(Superintendent)AtuatasiLeleiPeau,NMSAS(DeputySuperintendent)ApuluVeronikaMolio’oMata’utaiMortenson,NMSAS(translator)JosephPaulin,NMSAS(workshopcoordinator)MelissaSnover,NMSAS(smallgroupfacilitator)IsabelGaoteoteHalatuitui,NMSAS(notetaker)TaimalieLetuli,NMSAS(notetaker)Participants:MikeKing,ASPA KimMcGuire,CRAG/DMWR DougFenner,NOAAEdnaNoga,ASPA SoliOfoia,MayorVaitogi DJSene,ASCC/LandGrantUtuAbeMalae,ASPADirector HideyoHattori,NOAACRCP AldenTagarino,ASCCJasonJaskowiak,ASPA JoseRose,OCI/DOE O.Tovola,ASCCShaunSalave’a,Leone TimClark,NPSA RubyTaduai,ASCCR.T.Toelupe,Leone TriciaSataua,ASEPA AnnabelleLeota,ASCCFonotiSimanu,(NMSASACAunu’uIsland)

FaimaliePeresesa,FutigaMayor

BrianPeck,USFWSRoseAtollManager

TogiolaTulafono,(NMSASACEastTutuila)

ValoryGregg,AtlanticPacificMarine(NMSASACWestTutuila)

PuataunofoTulafono,BoyandGirlsClub

TableofContents

ExecutiveSummary.................................................................................................................i

Chapter1AnOverviewofClimateChangeinAmericanSamoa...............................................1OverviewandBackground........................................................................................................................................................1

OfficeofNationalMarineSanctuariesPerspective........................................................................................................1AmericanSamoa..........................................................................................................................................................................1Faˊa-Samoa-TheSamoanWay.............................................................................................................................................1PreparingforClimateChange................................................................................................................................................2

ClimateChangeImpactsinAmericanSamoa.....................................................................................................................3AirTemperature...........................................................................................................................................................................4AnnualandSeasonalPrecipitation.......................................................................................................................................5Drought............................................................................................................................................................................................6ExtremePrecipitationandTropicalCyclones...................................................................................................................6Streamflow.....................................................................................................................................................................................6SeaLevelRise................................................................................................................................................................................7WaveHeight..................................................................................................................................................................................8SeaSurfaceTemperature.........................................................................................................................................................8OceanAcidification.....................................................................................................................................................................9

Chapter2VulnerabilityAssessmentandAdaptationPlanning:MethodsandWorkshopActivities...............................................................................................................................10Overview......................................................................................................................................................................................10STEP1:IdentifyConservationTargets-FocalResourceSelection..........................................................................11STEP2:VulnerabilityAssessmentWorkshopandMethods......................................................................................11

VulnerabilityTerminologyandDefinitions:....................................................................................................................12HabitatVulnerabilityAssessmentCriteria:Sensitivity,Exposure,andAdaptiveCapacity..........................12SpeciesVulnerabilityAssessmentCriteria:Sensitivity,Exposure,andAdaptiveCapacity...........................13EcosystemServiceVulnerabilityAssessmentCriteria:Sensitivity,Exposure,andAdaptiveCapacity.....15VulnerabilityAssessmentWorkshopActivities.............................................................................................................15

STEP3:AdaptationPlanningWorkshopandMethods................................................................................................16AdaptationTerminologyandDefinitions........................................................................................................................17AdaptationStrategyWorkshopActivities.......................................................................................................................17CurrentManagementGoalsandPotentialVulnerabilities.........................................................................18FutureManagementGoalsandAdaptationActions........................................................................................18AdaptationActionFeasibility...............................................................................................................................................18

Chapter3VulnerabilityAssessmentandAdaptationPlanningResults..................................19Summary......................................................................................................................................................................................191.CoralReefHabitat................................................................................................................................................................20

Introduction................................................................................................................................................................................20VulnerabilityAssessmentResults.......................................................................................................................................20CurrentManagementActions.............................................................................................................................................21FutureManagementActions...............................................................................................................................................21FeasibilityandEffectivenessofCurrentandFutureManagementActions.......................................................22

2.MangrovesandLagoonHabitat......................................................................................................................................22Introduction................................................................................................................................................................................22VulnerabilityAssessmentResults.......................................................................................................................................23CurrentManagementActions.............................................................................................................................................23FutureManagementActions...............................................................................................................................................23

FeasibilityandEffectivenessofCurrentandFutureManagementActions.......................................................243.WaterQuality........................................................................................................................................................................24

Introduction................................................................................................................................................................................24VulnerabilityAssessmentResults.......................................................................................................................................25CurrentManagementActions.............................................................................................................................................25FutureManagementActions...............................................................................................................................................26FeasibilityandEffectivenessofCurrentandFutureManagementActions.......................................................26

4.GiantClams............................................................................................................................................................................27Introduction................................................................................................................................................................................27VulnerabilityAssessmentResults.......................................................................................................................................27CurrentManagementActions.............................................................................................................................................27FutureManagementActions...............................................................................................................................................27FeasibilityandEffectivenessofCurrentandFutureManagementActions.......................................................28

5.ReefFish..................................................................................................................................................................................28ReefHerbivoresIntroduction...............................................................................................................................................28ReefHerbivoreFishVulnerabilityAssessmentResults...............................................................................................29ReefPiscivoresIntroduction.................................................................................................................................................29ReefPiscivoresVulnerabilityAssessmentResults........................................................................................................29CharismaticReefFishIntroduction....................................................................................................................................29CharismaticReefFishVulnerabilityAssessmentResults...........................................................................................30CurrentManagementActionsForAllReefFishAssemblages................................................................................30FutureManagementActionsForAllReefFishAssemblages..................................................................................30FeasibilityandEffectivenessofCurrentandFutureManagementActionsforAllReefFishAssemblages.........................................................................................................................................................................................................31

6.PelagicFish.............................................................................................................................................................................31Introduction................................................................................................................................................................................31VulnerabilityAssessmentResults.......................................................................................................................................32CurrentManagementActions/FutureManagementActions................................................................................32

7.SharksandRays....................................................................................................................................................................32Introduction................................................................................................................................................................................32VulnerabilityAssessmentResults.......................................................................................................................................32CurrentManagementActions.............................................................................................................................................33FutureManagementActions...............................................................................................................................................33FeasibilityandEffectivenessofCurrentandFutureManagementActions.......................................................33

8.SeaTurtles..............................................................................................................................................................................34Introduction................................................................................................................................................................................34VulnerabilityAssessmentResults.......................................................................................................................................34CurrentManagementActions.............................................................................................................................................34FutureManagementActions...............................................................................................................................................34FeasibilityandEffectivenessofCurrentandFutureManagementActions.......................................................35

LiteratureCited.....................................................................................................................36

Appendices...........................................................................................................................41AppendixI:NationalMarineSanctuaryofAmericanSamoa.....................................................................................41AppendixII:ListofAcronyms...............................................................................................................................................49AppendixIII:ClimateImpactsSummaryTable..............................................................................................................50AppendixIV:CurrentandFutureAdaptationStrategiesTables...............................................................................55

ListofFiguresFigure1.MapofthePacificIslandssub-regions(left)andAmericanSamoa(right)(Finucaneet

al.2012;USDOCNOAAONMS2012).....................................................................................4Figure2.Adaptationplanningprocess(Glicketal.2011)............................................................10Figure3.Visualrepresentationofthevulnerabilityassessmentprocess...................................12Figure4.Visualrepresentationoftherelationshipbetweenadaptationgoals,strategies,and

specificactions.....................................................................................................................17Figure5.FeasibilityandEffectivenessofCurrent(blue)andFutureAdaptationActionsforCoral

Reefs.....................................................................................................................................22Figure6.FeasibilityandEffectivenessofCurrent(blue)andFutureAdaptationActionsfor

Mangroves............................................................................................................................24Figure7.FeasibilityandEffectivenessofCurrent(blue)andFutureAdaptationActionsforWater

Quality..................................................................................................................................26Figure8.FeasibilityandEffectivenessofCurrent(blue)andFutureAdaptationActionsforGiant

Clams....................................................................................................................................28Figure9.FeasibilityandEffectivenessofCurrent(blue)andFutureAdaptationActionsforReef

fish........................................................................................................................................31Figure10.FeasibilityandEffectivenessofCurrent(blue)andFutureAdaptationActionsfor

SharksandRays....................................................................................................................33Figure11.FeasibilityandEffectivenessofCurrent(blue)andFutureAdaptationActionsforSea

Turtles...................................................................................................................................35

ListofTablesTable1.Currentmanagementgoals,potentialvulnerabilities,andcurrentmanagementactions

forcoralreefs.......................................................................................................................55Table2.Potentialfuturemanagementgoals,adaptationactions,andactionimplementation

detailsincludingwhereandhowtoimplementandcollaborationandcapacityneedsforcoralreefs.............................................................................................................................63

Table3.Currentmanagementgoals,potentialvulnerabilities,andcurrentmanagementactionsformangrovesandPalaLagoon...........................................................................................69

Table4.Potentialfuturemanagementgoals,adaptationactions,andactionimplementationdetailsincludingwhereandhowtoimplementandcollaborationandcapacityneedsformangrovesandPalaLagoon.................................................................................................70

Table5.Currentmanagementgoals,potentialvulnerabilities,andcurrentmanagementactionsforwaterquality...................................................................................................................72

Table6.Potentialfuturemanagementgoals,adaptationactions,andactionimplementationdetailsincludingwhereandhowtoimplementandcollaborationandcapacityneedsforwaterquality........................................................................................................................74

Table7.Currentmanagementgoals,potentialvulnerabilities,andcurrentmanagementactionsforgiantclams......................................................................................................................75

Table8.Potentialfuturemanagementgoals,adaptationactions,andactionimplementationdetailsincludingwhereandhowtoimplementandcollaborationandcapacityneedsforgiantclams...........................................................................................................................76

Table9.Currentmanagementgoals,potentialvulnerabilities,andcurrentmanagementactionsforreeffish...........................................................................................................................77

Table10.Potentialfuturemanagementgoals,adaptationactions,andactionimplementationdetailsincludingwhereandhowtoimplementandcollaborationandcapacityneedsforreeffish.................................................................................................................................79

Table11.Potentialfuturemanagementgoals,adaptationactions,andactionimplementationdetailsincludingwhereandhowtoimplementandcollaborationandcapacityneedsforsharksandrays.....................................................................................................................80

Table12.Currentmanagementgoals,potentialvulnerabilities,andcurrentmanagementactionsforseaturtles...........................................................................................................81

Table13.Potentialfuturemanagementgoals,adaptationactions,andactionimplementationdetailsincludingwhereandhowtoimplementandcollaborationandcapacityneedsforseaturtles.............................................................................................................................84

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ExecutiveSummary

TheoceansystemsandtheinterdependentlivesandeconomiesthatareprotectedbytheNationalMarineSanctuaryofAmericanSamoaareaffectedbydiverseandcompoundinganthropogenicfactors.Theserangefrommarinedebrisandpollution,tohumandevelopmentandfishingpractices,toclimatechangeandoceanacidification.Sanctuaryplanningandmanagementhelptoensurethatthenaturalsystemsonwhichmarine,wildlifeandhumancommunitiesdependarehealthyandsustainableforgenerationstocomedespitethesefar-reachingstressors.Foremergingthreatssuchasclimatechangeandoceanacidification,marineandcoastalresourcemanagersoftenrecognizethethreatsclimatechangeposestotheresilience,health,andecosystemservicesofthespecialcoastalandoceanplacestheyprotect,yetarestillstrugglingwithhowtodevelopappropriatemanagementoptions.Thisreportsummarizestheresultsofarapidvulnerabilityassessment(July2016)andadaptationstrategyplanning(September2016)workshopsfor10focalresourcesintheTerritoryandNationalMarineSanctuaryofAmericanSamoabyengagingwithstakeholders,includingvillageleaders,communitymembers,resourcemanagers,localgovernmentrepresentatives,andbusinessownersthatrelyontheresourceswiththegoalofincreasingclimateresilienceintheregion.VulnerabilityAssessmentResultsRankingsforeachvulnerabilitycomponent(i.e.,sensitivity,exposure,adaptivecapacity)werecombinedintoanoverallvulnerabilityscore.Thetablebelowdepictstheresultsofthevulnerabilityofthetenfocalresourcesoverthenext20years1aswellasconfidencescores.Overallthevulnerabilityassessmentofthe10focalresourceswasmoderatetolow-moderatewithmostlyhighandmoderateconfidencescores.Thisislikelyduetothe20-yeartimeframethatparticipantschosetouseratherthanamorestandardlong-termtimeframeof50-100years.Ifthestandardclimatechangetimeframewouldhavebeenusedforthisvulnerabilityassessment,onewouldhaveprobablyexpectedhighervulnerabilityandlowerconfidencescores.

FOCALRESOURCE VULNERABILITY CONFIDENCESCORE

CoralReefHabitat Moderate HighMangroveHabitat Low-Moderate HighWaterQuality Moderate HighGiantClam Moderate High

HerbivoreReefFish Low-Moderate HighCharismaticReefFish Low-Moderate High

ReefPiscivores Low-Moderate HighPelagicFish Moderate High

SharksandRays Low-Moderate ModerateSeaTurtles Moderate Moderate

1Participantsidentifieda20-yeartimeframeunderwhichtoassesstheresources’vulnerability.Alongertimeframewouldhaveyieldedmuchlowerconfidencescoresfortherankings,andparticipantswantedtoprovide

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AdaptationStrategyDevelopmentResultsForeachresource,participantsgeneratedalistofadaptationstrategiesandactions.Thetablebelowpresentsthetoprankedcurrentandfutureclimate-informedrecommendedactions.

RESOURCE CLIMATE-INFORMEDACTIONSCoralReefHabitat

• Supportsewerupgradesandexpansions,newwastewatertreatmentplants,properseptictankinstallation,andcesspoolremoval

• Plantmoretrees/vegetationincoastalareasandinvillagestoreducerunoff

• Selectcoralsthatareresilienttobleachingforrestorationprojects

Mangroves • IncreaseuseofstreamcatchmentstocatchdebrisWaterQuality • Improvesewageeffluentqualityandsewagetreatment(secondary

treatmentandUVlights)• Increasepubliceducationandoutreach• Passandenforceanti-litteringbill(KeepAmericanSamoaBeautiful

Act)• Findalternativestountreatable/disposablepollutants

GiantClam • Createhatcheryforclamstockingandgeneticstudyofgiantclamsbetweendifferentislandstodiversifyseedsource

• Increasepubliceducationandoutreach• Enforceanddevelopnewharvestregulationstoavoid

overharvestingReefFish • Utilizefishingregulationsandensureenforcement

Sharks&Rays • Increaseresearchtoidentifybreeding/rearingcriticalhabitatSeaTurtles • Engagevillagecouncilstoenforcelaws

• Monitorturtles/eggs;satellitetaggingtotrackmigrationroutes• Createcitizenscienceprogramtotrackturtle/nestpresence• Increaseeducation(importanceofbeachesandlightuse)• Useturtle-friendlystreetlights

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Chapter1 AnOverviewofClimateChangeinAmericanSamoa

OverviewandBackground

OfficeofNationalMarineSanctuariesPerspectiveTheOfficeofNationalMarineSanctuariesservesasthetrusteeforanetworkofunderwaterparksencompassingmorethan600,000squaremiles(1,553,993sq.km.)ofmarineandGreatLakeswatersfromWashingtonStatetotheFloridaKeys,andfromLakeHurontoAmericanSamoa.Thenetworkincludesasystemof13nationalmarinesanctuariesandPapahānaumokuākeaMarineNationalMonument.Nationalmarinesanctuariesoperateattheheartofcoastalcommunitieswherelocalmarineresourcesprovidejobs,recreationalopportunitiesandasenseofidentity.Eachsanctuaryworkscloselywithitslocal,stateandfederallevelstakeholdersinmanagingthesitetocreateasharedvisionthatintegrateshumanuseswiththeprimarymandateofresourceprotection.Nationalmarinesanctuariesplayasignificantroleinunderstandingtheinfluenceofclimatechange.Whileclimatechangethreatensmarineresourcesandthecommunitiesthatrelyonthem,nationalmarinesanctuariesareworkingwithpartnerstoeducatethepublicandtosystematicallyintegrateclimatechangeinmanagementandday-to-dayoperations.Inaddition,sanctuariesprovidecoastalcommunitieswithnaturaldefensesagainstclimatechangeimpacts.Theyprotectandrestorecriticalbluecarbonhabitats,suchassaltmarshes,mangrovesandseagrassbeds,thathelpmitigateclimatechangebycapturingandstoringcarbonfromtheatmosphere.Bybeingonthefrontline,sanctuariesareidealplacestofocusclimateresearchandmonitoringandtofindpracticalwaystobuildresiliencetoclimatechange.

AmericanSamoaAmericanSamoaisanunincorporatedterritoryoftheUnitedStatesconsistingoftheeasternpartoftheSamoanarchipelago,locatedinthesouth-centralPacificOcean.Itliesabout1,600miles(2,600km)northeastofNewZealandand2,200miles(3,500km)southwestoftheU.S.stateofHawaiˊi.

AmericanSamoaincludestheinhabitedislandsofTutuila,Manuˊaislands(Taˊu,Olosega,Ofu),andAunuˊu,alongwithanuninhabitedcoralatollnamedRoseIsland.SwainsIsland,aformerlyinhabitedcoralatoll,about280miles(450km)northwestofTutuilaandphysiographicallyseparatefromthearchipelago,wasmadeapartofAmericanSamoain1925.ThecapitalofAmericanSamoaisPagoPago,onTutuila.

The2010censusshowedatotalpopulationof55,519people.Thetotallandareais199squarekilometers(76.8sq.mi),slightlymorethanWashington,D.C.AmericanSamoaisthesouthernmostterritoryoftheU.S.andoneoftwoU.S.territories(withtheuninhabitedJarvisIsland)southoftheEquator(USDOCNOAAONMS2012).

Faˊa-Samoa-TheSamoanWayWhileAmericanSamoaistheplacewherethesanctuaryisphysicallylocated,faˊa-Samoaistheculturalcontextforallsanctuaryactivities.Faˊa-SamoaisthetraditionalcommunalSamoan

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lifestyle,orwayoflife.ItisthefoundationofPolynesia'soldestculture-datingbacksome3,000years.Itplacesgreatimportanceonthedignityandachievementsofthegroupratherthanonindividualachievements.Thetraditionalcommunallifestylerevolvesaroundtheaiga,orextendedfamily.Aigaareheadedbyleadingmatai(chief)orSaˊo,whomanagethecommunaleconomy,protectanddistributefamilylands,areresponsibleforthewelfareofallintheiraiga,andrepresentthefamilyincouncils.Evenafterdecadesofforeigninfluence,mostSamoansarefluentintheirnativelanguage,butalsospeakEnglish.

Thesanctuaryteamplacesahighvalueonpartnershipswithcommunitiesandmaintainsgreatrespectforfaˊa-Samoa.InAmericanSamoa,thesanctuary-matairelationshipiscriticaltothesuccessofthispartnership.TheAmericanSamoaOfficeofSamoanAffairshelpsfacilitatethesanctuary'scommunityconsultationsinamannerthatisculturallyappropriateandrespectfuloffaˊa-Samoa.Thisworkincludesconsultationswithsaofaˊigaalenuu(villagecouncilmeeting)andindividualmatai(USDOCNOAAONMS2012).

PreparingforClimateChangeIslandsinthePacificregionareamongthemostvulnerableareasintheworldtoimpactsfromclimatechange(Mimuraetal.2007).GivenAmericanSamoa’sisolation,limitedlandarea,andvulnerabilitytoextremeweathereventsandcoastalhazards,thereisacriticalneedtopreparecommunitiesforenvironmentalchangessuchasimpactsfromclimatechange.DuetothetraditionallandtenuresysteminAmericanSamoa,wherelandistiedtochiefly,ormatai,titlesandnotcontrolledbythegovernment,itisnecessarytoengagethechiefsatthevillagelevelinordertocreateaneffectiveresilienceplan.Theneedto“integrateplansatthevillagelevel”wasnotedinthe2012AmericanSamoaCapacityAssessment(Pageetal.2012).Inaddition,theNOAACoralReefConservationProgramnotedthatthereisaneedto“Identify,understand,andcommunicaterisksandvulnerabilityofUScoralreefecosystems,ecosystemservices,anddependenthumancommunitiestoclimatechangeandoceanacidification”inits2009reportentitled“NOAACoralReefConservationProgramGoalsandObjectives2010-2015.”Despitetheseneeds,littlelocalplanningandresourcevulnerabilityassessmentshavebeenconductedtodate.

Localclimatechangeactionstakenthusfarinclude:

1)TheCoralReefAdvisoryGroup(CRAG)wascreatedinAmericanSamoain1994bythreefoundingagencies(AmericanSamoaEnvironmentalProtectionAgency,DepartmentofCommerceandDepartmentofMarineandWildlifeResources)withtwoadditionalgroups(NationalParkofAmericanSamoaandtheAmericanSamoaCommunityCollege’sMarineScienceProgram)joiningin2000.TheCRAGidentifiedfourthreatsas“mostdevastating”tocoralreefsinAmericanSamoa—over-fishing,populationgrowth,developmentpressure/unmanagedlanduse,andclimatechange.Localresearchwassupportedtoexplorethesethreats,includingclimatechange,withterritorialandfederalfunds,andworkshopswereheldtobuildagencycapacityontheseissues,whileworkingtodevelopresponsestrategies.

2)In2007thenGovernorTulafonosignedanexecutiveorderentitled,“ClimateChangeMitigationExecutiveOrder,”whichmandatedthattheAmericanSamoaGovernment(ASG)wouldmakeeffortstoreduceitscarbonfootprintthroughsuchactionsas:IncreasedminimumfuelefficiencyforASGvehicles;nolongerbuying4-wheeldrivevehiclesunlessneeded;increase

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thenumberofhybridvehiclesby5%until50%ofnewASGvehiclesarehybridin2017;banningtheimportationofvehiclesmadebefore1999;requiregasstationstoinstallvaporrecoverynozzles;usecompactflorescentbulbs,encouragingallASGdepartmentstosetuparecyclingprogram,purchasingonlyenergystarappliances,anditbannedtheimportofhighphosphorusdetergentstoreducenutrificationinnearshorewaters.

3)SeveralhighlevelclimatechangeworkshopswereheldinAmericanSamoaafterthe2007ExecutiveOrder,includingoneinApril,2010entitled,“PlanningforClimateChangeintheCoastalandMarineEnvironment,”andanotherinFebruary,2010entitled,“MakingClimateChangeLocal:BuildingResilientCommunitiesinthePacific.”BothoftheseworkshopswereinwholeorpartsponsoredandorganizedbythethenFagateleBayNationalMarineSanctuary(nowNationalMarineSanctuaryofAmericanSamoa).

4)AnASGmandatedTerritorialClimateChangeAdaptationWorkingGroupwascreatedinJune,2011.

5)InAugustof2012,thenGovernorTulafonosignedanupdatedexecutiveorder(EO-03-2012)acknowledgingandreaffirmingtheseriousnatureoftheimpactsofclimatechangetoAmericanSamoa,andevenspecificallynotingtheactionsweretakenfromtherecommendationsofthe“MakingClimateChangeLocal:BuildingResilientCommunitiesinthePacific”workshop.Thisexecutiveorderproposedto:banimportofvehiclesolderthantenyears,requiringallnewlypurchasedASGvehiclestobehybrids,requiringallnewlypurchasedASGappliancestobeEnergyStar,banningtheimportationofanydetergentscontainingphosphates,prohibitingtheuseofincandescentlightbulbsandrequiringnewlightingtouselight-emittingdiode(LED)bulbs,orcompactfluorescentbulbsifLEDsaren’tanoption,andrequiresallASGdepartmentstocreatetheirownrecyclingprogram.

6)ATerritorialClimateChangeAdaptationFrameworkandaCommunityClimateChangeResiliencyGuidewascreatedinAugustof2012.

7)In2012air-bornLiDAR-LightDetectionandRanging—aremotesensingmethodusedtoexaminethesurfaceoftheEarth,wasflownovertheislandofTutuila;thiscriticaldatasetisbeingusedtodevelopsealevelrisemodelsforlocalvillages.

8)In2012,thevillageofAmoulicreatedavillageresiliencyplan,asoutlinedintheresiliencyguide.ThiswasaresultofaprojectdrivenbyCo-PrincipleInvestigatorsDr.ArielleLevineandFatimaSauafeaLe’au,withtechnicalassistancefromDr.ChipFletcher.

9)In2012,theFagateleBayNationalMarineSanctuaryFinalManagementPlan/FinalEnvironmentalImpactStatement,thatincludedaClimateChangeActionPlan,werecompleted(USDOCNOAAONMS2012).

ClimateChangeImpactsinAmericanSamoaAmericanSamoaclimateischaracterizedbywarm,relativelystableairtemperatures,variableprecipitation,highhumidity,persistentsoutheasttradewinds,andperiodictropicalcycloneactivity(USDOCNOAAONMS2012).RainfallandtradewindsinAmericanSamoaareinfluencedbytheSouthPacificConvergenceZone,alow-pressureareawhichseasonallymovesoverandaroundthearchipelago,resultinginalongrainyseasonfromOctober-May,andaslightlycooleranddrierperiodfromJune-Septemberwithhighersoutheasterlytradewindactivity(Finucaneetal.2012;USDOCNOAAONMS2012).Tropicalcycloneactivitiesbring

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heavyrainfallandhighwaveactivity,withpeakcycloneactivityoccurringfromDecembertoFebruary(Finucaneetal.2012).

Figure1.MapofthePacificIslandssub-regions(left)andAmericanSamoa(right)(Finucaneetal.2012;USDOCNOAAONMS2012).

ThePacificIslandsregionexperienceshighinter-annualandinter-decadalclimatevariabilityasaresultoftheElNinoSouthernOscillation(ENSO),thePacificDecadalOscillation(PDO),andtheInter-decadalPacificOscillation(IPO)(Finucaneetal.2012;USDOCNOAAONMS2012;ChengandGaskin2011).ENSOevents–includingLaNiña(coldphase)andElNiño(warmphase)–influenceavarietyofregionalclimatefactors,includingtradewindactivity,rainfall,stormtracks,andoceantemperature(Finucaneetal.2012;USDOCNOAAONMS2012).Theseeventstypicallypersistfor6-18monthsandENSOphaseshiftsoccurevery3-7years(Cane2005).ThePDOhassimilareffectsbecauseitswarmandcoldphasesaltertherelativedominanceofElNiñoandLaNiñaevents.PDOphasestypicallycycleevery20-30years(D’Aleo2005),anditisbelievedthatthePacificIslandsregionhasbeeninacoldPDOphasesince1999;thisphasewilllikelypersistforthenextseveraldecades.TheIPObehavessimilarlytothePDO,affectingthebroadersouthPacific,whereAmericanSamoaislocated(Finucaneetal.2012).Wherepossible,climateinformationspecifictoAmericanSamoaispresented.IntheabsenceofspecificinformationforAmericanSamoa,climatetrendsandprojectionsforSamoa,theCentralSouthPacific,orthePacificIslandsregionasawholearepresented.

AirTemperatureInnearbySamoa,averageannual,minimum,andmaximumairincreasedsignificantlyfrom1950-2009(+0.25°F(+0.14°C),+0.07°F(+0.04°C),and+0.4°F(0.22°C)perdecade,respectively),withthelargestincreasesinmaximumairtemperatures(Young2007;ABMandCSIRO2011).AirtemperaturesareprojectedtocontinueincreasingoverthenextcenturyintheCentralSouthPacific(Young2007;ABMandCSIRO2011).Relativetotemperaturesfrom1971-2000,averageannualsurfacetemperaturesareprojectedtoincrease+1.1-1.3°F(+0.61-0.72°C)by2030,+1.9-2.5°F(+1.06-1.39°C)by2050,and+2.5-4.8°Fby2090(+1.39-2.67°C)(ABMand

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CSIRO2011).Additionally,extremeheatdaysareprojectedbecomemorefrequentandintenseacrossthePacificIslandsregionduringthe21stcentury(Finucaneetal.2012).PotentialimpactsofairtemperatureincreasesonAmericanSamoa’smarineandcoastalresourcesincludeincreasedmangroveheatstressandalteredmangroveforestspeciescomposition,distribution,growthrates,andphenology,alteredtidalflatcommunitycomposition,distribution,andproductivity,increasedevaporation,exacerbatingdroughtstress,alteredbirdmigrationtiming,andshiftsinseaturtlehatchlingsexratios(morefemales)(ParkerandMiller2012;Leongetal.2014).

AnnualandSeasonalPrecipitationTherearefewstableprecipitationmonitoringrecordsforAmericanSamoa,butfromwhatdataareavailable,AmericanSamoahasshownnosignificanttrendinannualprecipitationorwinterone-dayprecipitationvolumesince1965(Leongetal.2014).Similarly,annualandseasonalrainfalltrendsinSamoashowednosignificanttrendsfrom1950-2009(ABMandCSIRO2011).FutureprecipitationprojectionsfortheCentralSouthPacificarehighlyvariableanddisplayconflictingresults(Young2007;ABMandCSIRO2011).However,futureconditionsmayincludenochangetoaslightincreaseinmeanannualprecipitationduringthe21stcentury,withslightprecipitationdecreasesduringthedryseasonandslightprecipitationincreasesduringthewetseason(ABMandCSIRO2011;Keeneretal.2012).Precipitationpatternsareinfluencedbyavarietyoffactorsinadditiontoclimatechange,includingshiftsinENSO,PDO,andIPOphases,andaccordingtolocaltopographyandlocationonagivenisland(Finucaneetal.2012,Leongatal.2014).Forexample,ElNiñoconditionscancauseheavyrainfallordroughtdependingoneventstrengthandislandlocation(Finucaneetal.2012).Asummaryofgeneralphaseeffectsonrainfallandtropicalcycloneactivityarelistedbelow.SummaryofphaseeventinfluencesonprecipitationandtropicalcycloneactivityinAmericanSamoa(ABMandCSIRO2011):

• ElNiño:o Weak:reducedrainfallandtropicalcycloneactivityo Moderate:enhancedrainfallandtropicalcycloneactivity,extendedrainyseasono Strong:reducedrainfall

• LaNiña:o Increasedtropicalcycloneactivityandrainfall

• PDO/IPO:o Warmphases:generallyincreaseElNiñoactivityo Coldphases:generallyincreaseLaNiñaactivity

PotentialimpactsofalteredprecipitationpatternsonAmericanSamoa’smarineandcoastalresourcesinclude:alteredfreshwaterrunoffmagnitudeandtimingtocoastalandnearshoreenvironments(e.g.,lagoons,reefadjacentbays),alteringpollutant,sediment,andnutrientdeliveryandalteredoceansalinityandstratification(ChengandGaskin2011;Finucaneetal.2012;Parker2012;Leongetal.2014).

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DroughtDroughteventsinSamoaarecorrelatedwithElNiñoevents,butdroughtfrequencyhasnotchangedoverthepast60yearsinSamoa(Young2007;ABMandCSIRO2011)orAmericanSamoa(Keeneretal.2012).DroughtfrequencyinSamoaisunlikelytoexhibitmajorchangeduringthe21stcentury,butthereislowconfidenceinthisprojectionduetopoormodelingofdryseasonprecipitationpatternsintheregion(Young2007).PotentialdroughtimpactsonAmericanSamoa’smarineandcoastalresourcesarereducedfreshwaterresources,particularlyifdroughtiscombinedwithenhancedsaltwaterintrusionandsealevelrise,andthepotentialfordecreasedtourism(ABMandCSIRO2011;ChengandGaskin2011;Finucaneetal.2012;Parker2012;Leongetal.2014).

ExtremePrecipitationandTropicalCyclonesTheCentralSouthPacifichasshownnoincreaseinthefrequencyofextremerainfalleventssince1965(Keeneret.al2012).However,tropicalcyclonesaretheprimarysourceofextremeprecipitationintheCentralSouthPacific,andtheproportionoftropicalstormsescalatingintotropicalcyclonesincreasedfrom1991-2010relativeto1970-1990(Parker2012).Extremerainfalleventsarelikelytoincreaseinfrequencyandintensityduringthe21stcentury,andwilllikelycontinuetobecorrelatedwithtropicalcycloneactivity(Young2007;ABMandCSIRO2011).Althoughregion-specificprojectionsarehighlyuncertain(Keeneretal.2012),tropicalcycloneintensityacrossthePacificIslandsisprojectedtoincreaseoverthenext70years(Diamond2012),evenwhileoverallcycloneactivitymaydeclineintheCentralSouthPacificasstormtracksshifttowardtheCentralNorthPacific(ABMandCSIRO2011;Seneviratneetal.2012).Inadditiontorespondingtoseasurfaceandatmospherictemperatures,cycloneactivityisalsocorrelatedwithENSO,PDO,andIPOphaseshifts,makingfutureprojectionsdifficult(Keeneretal.2012).MorefrequentandintenseextremeprecipitationeventsandmoreintensetropicalcyclonescanhaveavarietyofimpactsonAmericanSamoa’smarineandcoastalresources,including1)increasederosion,sedimentation,andpollutionrunoffduringextremeprecipitationevents,reducingwaterqualityandpromotingalgalbloomsinmangroveandcoralreefsystems;2)increasednutrientrunoffandcrown-of-thornsstarfishoutbreaksfollowingstorms;3)increasedriskofwaterbornediseases;4)alteredgeomorphologyofmangrovesforests,coralreefs,andseagrassbeds,reducingcriticalhabitatandprotectionforcoastalcommunities;andincreasedcoastalerosion,potentiallyaffectingimportantculturalresources,nestingseaturtles,andtourism(Parker2012;Leongetal.2014;ChengandGaskin2011;Finucaneetal.2012).

StreamflowThereisverylittlelong-term,reliablestreamflowdataforAmericanSamoa,butthelimiteddataavailablefromTutuilaindicatenosignificanttrendintotalstreamflow,baseflow,orthenumberofextremelow-orhigh-flowdaysoveraperiodof35years(1960-1995)(Keeneretal.2012).TherearenoconcreteprojectionsforstreamflowinAmericanSamoa,althoughstreamflowsarelikelytobeinfluencedbyshiftsinregionalprecipitation.Naturalflowregimesarealsoinfluencedbyhumaninfrastructureanduse(Keeneretal.2012).

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PotentialimpactsofalteredstreamflowsonAmericanSamoa’smarineandcoastalresourcesincludepossiblyreducedstreamfloworincreasedstreamflowdependentonprecipitationeventsanddroughtevents.Reducedstreamflowcanresultinreducednutrientdeliverytonearshoreandcoastalecosystemsandreducedtourismopportunitiesbylimitingfreshwateravailability.Increasedstreamflowcanresultinincreasedsedimentationandpollutantandnutrientdeliverytonearshoreecosystemsinfluencingtourism(Kenneretal.2012;Parker2012;Leongetal.2014).

SeaLevelRiseGlobalsealevelshaverisenoverthepastcentury,althoughexactmagnitudeestimatesvary(ChengandGaskin2011;YuandHamilton2010).Recentestimatesindicatethatglobalsealevelsincreased3.4(+/-0.4mm)peryearfrom1993-2009,representingamuchfasterrateofrisethanduringthe20thcentury(Emanuel2005).Meansealevelrisewas+2.07mmperyearfrom1948-2006inAmericanSamoa,butexhibitedannualvariability(ChengandGaskin2011).TherearenoconcreteprojectionsforsealevelriseinAmericanSamoa(ChengandGaskin2011).However,thePacificIslandsregionwilllikelyexperiencesimilarratesofsealevelriseasglobalaverages,withapotentialincreasebetween0.2to2mby2100dependingongreenhousegasemissionscenariosandratesoficesheetloss(Marraetal.2012).Mirroringincreasesinmeansealevel,thePacificIslandsregionwilllikelyexperienceanincreasedfrequencyofextremesealevelevents.BasedonpasttrendsobservedatPagoPago,extremesealeveleventswilllikelybedrivenbyhightides(Marraetal.2012)andextremeweather(e.g.,cyclones).Additionally,localratesofsealevelrisewilllikelyvaryaccordingtolanddynamics(subsidence,uplifting),phasechangesofENSOandthePDO,windpatterns,andstormactivity.Forexample,somecommunitiesinAmericanSamoa(e.g.,PagoPago)maybesubsiding,whichwillincreaserelativelocalratesofsealevelrise(Lietal.2010).EnergeticENSOphasescanraiselocalsealevelsby6-12inches(15-31cm),andstormwindscanraisewaterlevelsseveralinchestomultiplefeet(Keeneretal.2012).Additionally,shiftsintradewindactivitycanalterrelativeratesofsealevelrise,andarethoughttohavecontributedtothehigherratesofsealevelriseinthewesternPacificrelativetoglobaltrendsfrom1993-2010(Neremetal.2010;ChengandGaskin2011;Marraetal.2012).PotentialimpactsofsealevelriseandextremesealeveleventsonAmericanSamoa’smarineandcoastalresourcesinclude:

• Altereddistributionandavailabilityofcoastalandnearshorehabitatsduetoalteredinundationtiminganderosion,includingsandybeaches,shallowcoralreefs,seagrassbeds,intertidalflats,andmangroveforests(ChengandGaskin2011;Finucaneetal.2012;Leong2014)

• Enhancedfloodinganderosionoflow-lyingcoastalareas,potentiallyaffectingrecreation,tourism,andimportantculturalresources(ParkerandMiller2012)

• Reducedmangroveforestextentandassociatednurseryhabitatandecosystemservices(coastalprotection,waterpurification)(ParkerandMiller2012;Leongetal.2012)

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• Reducedseabirdbreedingandseaturtlenestinghabitat(ParkerandMiller2012;Leongetal.2012)

• Enhancedsaltwaterintrusioninaquifersandgroundwaterstorageareas,particularlyonlowerislands(ParkerandMiller2012;Leongetal.2012)

• Increasedsalinityinfreshwaterandbrackishwetlands(ParkerandMiller2012;Leongetal.2012)

• Reducedupwardcoralgrowth(ChengandGaskin2011;Finucaneetal.2012;USDOCNOAAONMS2012;Leong2014)

• Enhancederosionandre-suspensionofseabedsediment,increasingsedimentationandturbidityamongreefs(ChengandGaskin2011;Finucaneetal.2012;USDOCNOAAONMS2012;Leong2014)

WaveHeightFewlong-termrecordsofwaveheightexistforthePacificIslandsregion(Youngetal.2011;Seneviratneetal.2012).Futurewaveconditionsaredifficulttoprojectduetotheuncertaintyunderlyingfuturestormpatternsinachangingclimate(Marraetal.2012),butwithinthePacificIslandsregion,annualmeanwaveheightsareprojectedtoincreaseinthesoutherntropicalPacific,anddecreaseinotherPacificareas(Hermeretal.2010).PotentialimpactsofshiftingwaveheightsonAmericanSamoa’scoastalandmarineresourcesincludealteredcoraldistribution,increasedcoralerosion,changesreefgrowthpatterns,andincreasedcoastalerosion(ParkerandMiller2012;Leongetal.2014).

SeaSurfaceTemperatureSincethe1970s,seasurfacetemperaturesinthePacificIslandsregionhaveincreased+0.13-0.41°F(+0.07-0.23°C)perdecadedependingonlocation(ABMandCSIRO2011).AmericanSamoahasalsoexhibitedwarmingtrends(althoughexactratesaren’tavailable)andSamoaexhibitedatemperatureincreaseof+0.14°F(+0.08°C)perdecadefrom1970-2011(ABMandCSIRO2011;USDOCNOAAONMS2012).SeasurfacetemperatureinthePacificIslandsregionisprojectedtocontinueincreasingoverthenextcentury,potentiallyincreasing+1.1-1.7°F(+0.61-0.94°C)by2030,+1.8-2.3°F(+1.0-1.28°C)by2055,and+2.5-4.7°F(+1.39-2.61°C)by2090,dependingonemissionstrajectoriesandphasechangesofENSO,thePDO,andtheIPO(ABMandCSIRO2011;Finucaneetal.2012;Marraetal.2012).PotentialimpactsofincreasedseasurfacetemperaturesonAmericanSamoa’scoastalandmarineresourcesincludethefollowing:

• Morefrequentandintensecoralbleachingevents(e.g.,annualsummerbleachevents)andincreasedsusceptibilitytofuturebleachingepisodes(ChengandGaskin2011;Finucaneetal.2012;USDOCNOAAONMS2012;Leongatal.2014);

• Increasedcoralmortality(larvalandadultstages)anddiseaseincidence(e.g.,coralbleaching)(ChengandGaskin2011;Finucaneetal.2012;USDOCNOAAONMS2012;Leongetal.2014);

• Suppressedcoralreefreproductionandalteredpopulationconnectivity,potentiallyunderminingrecoveryfrombleachingevents(ChengandGaskin2011;Finucaneetal.2012;USDOCNOAAONMS2012;Leongetal.2014);

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• Potentialshiftsincoraldistribution(e.g.,shifttowarddeeperlocationsandareaswithhighwaterflowtoamelioratethermalstress)(ChengandGaskin2011;Finucaneetal.2012;USDOCNOAAONMS2012;Leongetal.2014);

• Altereddistributionandreduceddiversity,recruitment,andabundanceofreeffishes;• Increasedreeffishdiseasevulnerabilityviasuppressedimmunesystemfunction(Cheng

andGaskin2011;Finucaneetal.2012)• Alteredinvertebratelarvaldevelopmentandtransport(ChengandGaskin2011;

Finucaneetal.2012);• Lossofecosystemservicesprovidedbycoralreefs(e.g.,subsistenceandcommercial

fisheries,tourism,coastalprotection)(Leongetal.2014);• Rangeexpansionsofwarm-waterspecies(ParkerandMiller2012);• Declineofseagrasssystems,includingshiftsinspeciesdistribution,sexualreproduction,

carbondynamics,andgrowthrates(ChengandGaskin2012;Leongetal.2014);• Declineofmangrovesystems(ChengandGaskin2012;Leongetal.2014);• Alteredoceanicspeciesdistribution(includingadultsandlarvae)andcomposition,

potentiallyaffectingfisheries(stockabundanceandaccess)(Leongetal.2014);• Alteredstratification,resultinginshiftsinphoticzonenutrientavailabilityand

phytoplanktonsize,abundance,anddiversity,contributingoceanicfoodwebshifts(Leongetal.2014);

• Increaseddominanceofdinoflagellatesoverotherphytoplanktonandpotentialincreaseintoxicandnon-toxicdinoflagellateblooms(Leongetal.2014);and

• Increasedvulnerabilitytomarineinvasivespecies(ChengandGaskin2011;Finucaneetal.2012;USDOCNOAAONMS2012;Leongatal.2014).

OceanAcidificationOceanacidificationhasbeenprogressingacrossthePacificIslandsregionoverthepastseveralcenturies,andaccordingtoestimatesfortheSamoaregionthearagonitesaturationstateinthelate18thcenturywas4.5,whereasitwasmeasuredat4.1in2000(ABM&CSIRO2011).Coralformationoccursoptimallyatsaturationstatesabove4.0,decliningtoextremelymarginalproductionatlevelsatandbelow3.0(USDOCNOAAONMS2012).Regionaloceanwatersareprojectedtobecomemoreacidicinthefuture,andthearagonitesaturationstateisprojectedtofallbelow3.5intheregionby2060,andcontinuedecliningthereafter(ABM&CSIRO2011).PotentialimpactsofoceanacidificationonAmericanSamoa’scoastalandmarineresourcesinclude:reducedcalcificationincorals,crustaceans,mollusks,echinoderms,andothertaxa,reducedcoralformation,growth,diversity,abundance,health,andrecruitment,shiftsincompetitiveinteractionsamongstcoraltaxa,alteringreefcomplexity,increasedmacroalgae(fleshyalgae)growth,alteredoceanicspeciesdistributionasphytoplanktonproductivityanddistributionchanges,potentiallyaffectingfisheries,andreducedcoastalprotectionfromwaveenergyandoverwashifreefstructuresdecline(Chengetal.2011;ParkerandMiller2012;Leongetal.2014).

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Chapter2 VulnerabilityAssessmentandAdaptationPlanning:MethodsandWorkshopActivities

OverviewClimatechangevulnerabilityassessmentsprovidetwokindsofinformation:(1)theyidentifywhichresourcesarelikelytobemostaffectedbychangingclimateconditions,and(2)theyimproveunderstandingastowhytheseresourcesarelikelytobevulnerable.Knowingwhichresourcesaremostvulnerablebetterenablesmanagerstodevelopadaptationstrategiesandsetprioritiesforconservationaction(Glicketal.2011).Thisvulnerabilityassessmentandadaptationstrategyreportisaninitialscience-basedefforttoidentifyhowandwhyfocalresources(habitats,species,andecosystemservices)acrosstheAmericanSamoaarelikelytobeaffectedbyfutureclimateconditionsoverthenext20yearsandwhataresomestrategiesandoptionsforreducingthosevulnerabilities.ThisreportincludestheresultsoftwoworkshopstoassessStep1throughStep3oftheAdaptationPlanningProcess(seeFigure2).Step1includedtheidentificationofconservationseffortsfor10focalresources,Step2includedtheassessmentofthevulnerabilityofthosefocalresources,andStep3includedtheidentificationofmanagementoptionstoreducethosevulnerabilitiesthatwereidentifiedinStep2.

Figure2.Adaptationplanningprocess(Glicketal.2011).

Developingresilientmanagementoptionstodecreasevulnerabilitiesrequiresimplementingavarietyofadaptationoptions.Mostadaptationoptionsfallintothefollowingfivemaincategories:

1. EnhanceResistance.Implementationofthesestrategiescanhelptopreventtheeffectsofclimatechangefromreachingoraffectingaresource.Commonresistanceactionsincludethosedesignedtoreducenon-climatestressors.

2. PromoteResilience.Thesestrategiescanhelparesourcewithstandtheimpactsofclimatechangebyavoidingtheeffectsoforrecoveringfromchanges.

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3. FacilitateTransition(orResponse).Transitionorresponsestrategiesintentionallyaccommodatechangeandenableresourcestoadaptivelyrespondtochangingandnewconditions.

4. IncreaseKnowledge.Thesestrategiesareaimedatgatheringmoreinformationaboutclimatechanges,impacts,and/ortheeffectivenessofmanagementactionsinaddressingthechallengesofclimatechange.

5. EngageCoordination.Coordinationstrategiesmayhelpalignbudgetsandprioritiesforprogramsofworkacrosslandsorestablishorexpandcollaborativemonitoringeffortsorprojects,amongothers.

STEP1:IdentifyConservationTargets-FocalResourceSelectionAtotalof10focalresourceswereselectedfromalistof6habitats,12species,and3ecosystemservicesvaluedinAmericanSamoa.Sanctuarystaff,villageleaders,advisorycouncilmembers,scientists,andmanagerswereaskedeightquestionstoselecttheresourcesmostimpactedbyclimatechangewithasurvey.Thequestionsforconsiderationswhenpickingthefocalresourcesincluded:

1. Istheresourcelistedasthreatened,endangeredorsensitive?2. Istheresourceconsideredtobeecologicallyfoundational,adominantspecies,an

ecosystemengineer,akeystonespecies,anumbrellaspecies,animportantindicator,orstronginteractor?

3. Doestheresourcehavesubstantialorsignificantmanagementimplications?4. Doestheresourcehavesignificantotherstressorsalreadyaffectingviability?5. Doestheresourcehaveavailabledataandinformationuponwhichtodothe

vulnerabilityassessment?6. Istheresourceconsideredtobecontroversialorrare?7. Doestheresourcehavesocio-economicsignificance(forexample,isitaflagshipspecies

ordoesithaveculturaloreconomicvalue)?8. Istheresourcelikelytobesignificantlyimpactedbyclimatechange?

Thefinalfocalresourcesselectedincluded2combinedhabitats,coralreefhabitat(reefflat,reefcrest,reefslope,mesophoticreefs)andmangrove/lagoonhabitat;7speciesassemblages,charismaticfish,herbivorousfish,piscivorousfish,pelagicfish,sharksandrays,giantclams,andseaturtles;and1ecosystemservice,waterquality.

STEP2:VulnerabilityAssessmentWorkshopandMethodsThevulnerabilityassessmentcomprisesthreecomponents:1)sensitivity,2)adaptivecapacity,and3)exposure,forfocalresources,whichareaveragedbyrankingsforthosecomponents,andconfidencescoresforthoserankings.Thesensitivity,adaptivecapacity,andexposurecomponentseachincludemultiplefinerresolutionelementsthatwereaddressedindividually.Sensitivityinvolvesfactorsthatcurrentlyshapespecies,habitat,orecosystemservicetoclimateandclimatedrivenfactors(e.g.,airandseatemperature,precipitation,drought,tropicalstorms,streamflow,coastalerosion,ENSO),sensitivitytodisturbanceregimes(e.g.,disease,crown-of-thornsstarfish),andsensitivitytonon-climatestressors(e.g.,landusechange,overfishing,nutrientloading).Adaptivecapacityelementsincludeextent,status,and

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dispersalability;specieslifehistorydiversity,geneticdiversity,behavioralplasticity,andphenotypicplasticity;speciesabilitytoresistandrecoverfromstressors;andspeciesmanagementpotential.Toassessexposure,participantswereaskedtoidentifytheclimateandclimate-drivenchangesmostrelevanttoconsiderforthespecies,habitats,andecosystemservicesandtoevaluatehowtheywouldexperiencetothosechanges.Aclimatechangetrendsandprojectionstablewasprovidedtoparticipantstofacilitatethisevaluation(SeeAppendixIII).

VulnerabilityTerminologyandDefinitions:1. Vulnerability:Afunctionofthesensitivityofaparticularresourcetochangesinclimate

changes,itsexposuretothosechanges,anditscapacitytoadapttothosechanges(IPCC2007).

2. Sensitivity:Theclimateandclimate-drivenfactorsthatcurrentlyshapethespecies,habitatorecosystemservices.

3. Exposure:Considerationoffuturechangesinclimatethatcouldaffectthespecies,habitat,orecosystemservice.

4. AdaptiveCapacity:Theabilityofanindividual,community,orecosystemtorespondoradapttochange;thisreflectsintrinsictraits(e.g.,behavioralorphysiologicalflexibilitythatallowsindividualstorespondtonewsituations)andextrinsicfactors(e.g.,degreeofhabitatfragmentation,managementpotential).

Figure3.Visualrepresentationofthevulnerabilityassessmentprocess.

HabitatVulnerabilityAssessmentCriteria:Sensitivity,Exposure,andAdaptiveCapacity1. ClimateandClimateDriveFactors:Therearetwowaystoassesshabitatsensitivity:

a. whetherhabitatexistsinarelativelynarrowzone,andthusbeingmoresensitive,orexistsinarelativelybroadclimaticzone,thusbeinglesssensitive;

b. whetherthehabitatexperienceslargechangesincompositionorstructureduetosmallchangesinclimateorclimate-drivenfactors,andthusismoresensitive;orthehabitatexperiencessmallchangesevenwithlargerchangesinclimateorclimate-drivenfactors,andthisislesssensitive.

2. DisturbanceRegimes:Naturaldisturbanceregimeisaconceptthatdescribesthepatternofdisturbancesthatshapeanecosystemoveralongtimescale.Itisdistinguishedfromasingledisturbanceeventbecauseitdescribesaspatialdisturbance

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pattern,frequencyandintensityofdisturbances,andaresultingecologicalpatternoverspaceandtime.Moresensitivehabitatswillshowlargerchangesincompositionorstructureinresponsetorelativelysmallclimate-drivenchangesindisturbanceregimes.Conversely,itwouldtakemuchlargerclimate-drivenchangesindisturbanceregimestoelicitasubstantialchangeincompositionorstructureinlesssensitivehabitats.Changesindisturbanceregimesmaybeeithergoodorbadforthehabitat.

3. FutureClimateExposure:Exposureinvolvesfutureclimatechangesthatcouldaffectthehabitatandthelikelydegreeofexposuretothosechanges,includingincreasedairandseatemperatures,decreasedpH,alteredcurrents,andstorms.

4. SensitivityandCurrentExposuretoNon-ClimateStressors:Sensitivityofthehabitattoclimatechangeimpactsmaybehighlyinfluencedbytheexistence,extentof,andcurrentexposuretonon-climatestressors.Althoughahabitatmaybesensitivetoanon-climatestressor,ifitisnotcurrentlyexposedtoit,theoverallsensitivityofthehabitatmaybelower.

5. Extent,Integrity,andContinuity:Habitatsthatarecurrentlywidespreadintheirgeographicextent,withhighintegrityandcontinuitymayhavegreateradaptivecapacity,maybemorelikelytowithstandnon-climateandclimatestressors,andmaypersistintothefuture.Habitatsthataredegraded,isolated,limitedinextent,orcurrentlydecliningduetonon-climateandclimatestressorsmayhavelessadaptivecapacity,andmaybelesslikelytopersistintothefuture.

6. ResistanceandRecovery:Somehabitatsmaybemoreresistanttochanges,stressors,ormaladaptivehumanresponses,orareabletorecovermorequicklyfromstressors;thesehabitatslikelyexhibithigheradaptivecapacity.Thismayincludehabitatdiversityordiversephysicalandtopographicalcharacteristics(e.g.,varietyinaspects),whichmayconferhigheradaptivecapacity.

7. ManagementPotential:Managementpotentialreflectstheabilitytoimpacttheadaptivecapacityandresilienceofahabitattochangesinclimatethroughactionstakenbythehumancommunityoverseeingahabitat.

SpeciesVulnerabilityAssessmentCriteria:Sensitivity,Exposure,andAdaptiveCapacity1. ClimateandClimate-DrivenFactors:Speciessensitivitytoclimateandclimate-driven

factorsmaybedirect(e.g.,physiological,phenological)orindirect(e.g.,ecologicalrelationships).

a. Physiologicalsensitivityreferstoaspecies’physiologicalabilitytotoleratechangesthatarehigherorlowerthantherangethattheyhaveexperiencedorcurrentlyexperience.Speciesthatareabletotolerateawiderangeofclimaticfactorsmaybeconsideredlesssensitive.

b. Phenologicalsensitivityreferstoaspecies’abilitytophenologicallytrackclimate(e.g.,timingofreoccurringthermalevents).Speciesthatcannotphenologicallytrackenvironmentalchangesmaybeconsideredmoresensitive.

c. Species’ecologicalrelationshipsmayalsobeaffectedbyclimateorclimate-drivenfactors.Ecologicalrelationshipscaninclude:predator/prey,foraging,competition,habitat,pollination,dispersal,symbiont/mutualist/parasite,andothers.Ecologicalrelationshipssignificantlyaffectedbysmallchangesinclimateandclimate-drivenfactorsmayhavehighersensitivity.

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2. DisturbanceRegime:Naturaldisturbanceregimeisaconceptthatdescribesthepatternofdisturbancesthatshapeanecosystemoveralongtimescale;itisdistinguishedfromasingledisturbanceeventbecauseitdescribesaspatialdisturbancepattern,afrequencyandintensityofdisturbances,andaresultingecologicalpatternoverspaceandtime.Speciesmaybeatgreaterriskofdeclineoreliminationeveninresponsetosmallchangesindisturbanceregimes.Forexample,increasingwatertemperaturescanalterbleachinganddiseasepatternsincoralreefswhichmaycauseshiftsfromcoraltoalgaldominatedsystems.Changesindisturbanceregimesmaybeeithergoodorbadforthespecies.

3. FutureClimateExposure:Climateexposureinvolvesprojectedfuturechangesinclimatethatcouldaffectthespeciesandthelikelihoodthataspecieswillexperiencethosechanges,includingincreasedairandseatemperature,decreasedpH,alteredcurrents,andstorms.

4. Dependencies:Speciesthatusemultiplehabitatsorutilizemultiplepreyorforagespeciesmaybelesssensitivetoclimatechange(e.g.,generalists).Conversely,specieswithverynarrowhabitatneedsorhabitatspecialization,singlepreyorforagespecies,ordependenceonanothersensitivespeciesmayhaveahigherlikelihoodofdeclineifclimatechangesignificantlyaffectsthehabitatorspeciestheyaredependentupon(e.g.,specialists).

5. SensitivityandCurrentExposuretoNon-ClimateStressors:Sensitivityofthespeciestoclimatechangeimpactsmaybehighlyinfluencedbytheexistence,extentof,andcurrentexposuretonon-climatestressors.Althoughaspeciesmaybesensitivetoanon-climatestressor,ifitisnotcurrentlyexposedtoit,theoverallsensitivityofthespeciesmaybelower.

6. Extent,Status,andDispersalAbility:Speciesthatarecurrentlywidespreadintheirgeographicextent,witharobustpopulationstatus,connectivity,andahighabilitytodispersemayhavehigheradaptivecapacity.Thesespeciesmaybemorelikelytowithstandandpersistintothefuturedespiteclimaticandnon-climaticstressors.Speciesthatareendemic,threatenedorendangered,occurasisolatedorfragmentedpopulations,and/orexhibitlimitedabilitytodispersemayhaveloweradaptivecapacity.

7. Intraspecific/LifeHistoryDiversity:a. Lifehistorydiversity:Specieswithadiversityoflifehistorystrategies(e.g.,

variationsinageatmaturity,reproductiveornurseryhabitatuse,orresourceuse)maybemoreresilienttoclimatechange.

b. Geneticdiversity:Specieswithcharacteristicssuchasfastergenerationtimes,geneticdiversity,heritabilityoftraits,largerpopulationsize,ormultiplepopulationswithconnectivityamongthemtoallowforgeneflowmayexhibithigheradaptivecapacity.

c. Phenotypicandbehavioralplasticity:Specieswiththecapacitytoexpressdifferenttraits(e.g.,phenology,behavior,physiology)inresponsetoenvironmentalvariationmayhavehigheradaptivecapacity.Forexample,manyspeciesexhibitphenotypeplasticityinresponsetointer-annualvariationintemperatureandprecipitation.

8. Resistance:Somespeciesmaybemoreresistanttochanges,stressors,ormaladaptivehumanresponses;thesespeciesmayexhibithigheradaptivecapacity.

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9. ManagementPotential:Managementpotentialreflectstheabilitytoenhancetheadaptivecapacityandresilienceofaspeciestochangesinclimaticthroughactionstakenbythehumancommunityoverseeingaresource.

EcosystemServiceVulnerabilityAssessmentCriteria:Sensitivity,Exposure,andAdaptiveCapacity

1. Sensitivityinvolvesfactorsthatcurrentlyshapeecosystemservices;exposureinvolvesfutureclimatechangesthatcouldaffecttheecosystemservice,andiscoveredinanothersectionbelow.Ecosystemservicesensitivitymaylargelybedeterminedbythesensitivitiesofthosecomponents(e.g.,species,habitat,hydrology,etc.)thatprovideorsupporttheservice.Forexample,thesensitivityof“marinefisheries”asanecosystemserviceissignificantlydeterminedbythesensitivityofthetargetspeciesclimateandclimate-drivenfactors(e.g.,pHortemperature).Similarly,thesensitivityofrecreationasanecosystemserviceisdependentonthesensitivityoftargetspecies(e.g.,birdsforbird-watching)orhabitat(e.g.,beachesforsunbathing).

2. DisturbanceRegime:Naturaldisturbanceregimeisaconceptthatdescribesthepatternofdisturbancesthatshapeanecosystemoveralongtimescale;itisdistinguishedfromasingledisturbanceeventbecauseitdescribesaspatialdisturbancepattern,afrequencyandintensityofdisturbances,andaresultingecologicalpatternoverspaceandtime.Moresensitiveecosystemservicesmayshowsignificantchangesintheirabilitytobeprovidedinresponsetorelativelysmallclimate-drivenchangesindisturbanceregimes(e.g.,increaseddiseasesinshellfishleadingtoharvestrestrictionsand/orclosures).

3. FutureClimateExposure:Climateexposureinvolvesprojectedfutureclimatechangesthatcouldaffecttheserviceandthelikelydegreeofexposuretothosechanges.

4. SensitivityandCurrentExposuretoNon-ClimateStressors:Sensitivityoftheservicetoclimatechangeimpactsmaybehighlyinfluencedbytheexistence,extentof,andcurrentexposuretonon-climatestressors.Althoughaservicemaybesensitivetoanon-climatestressor,ifitisnotcurrentlyexposedtoit/affectedbyit,theoverallsensitivityoftheservicewillbelower.

5. IntrinsicValueandManagementPotential:Intrinsicvalueconsiderssocietalvalueoftheservice,includingwhetherornotpeoplewouldbewillingtochangebehaviortocontinueaccesstoandconditionoftheservice.Managementpotentialreflectsourabilitytoaffecttheadaptivecapacityandresilienceofanecosystemservicetoclimaticchangesthroughactionstakenbythehumancommunityoverseeinganecosystemservice.

VulnerabilityAssessmentWorkshopActivitiesDuringtheJuly2016workshop,2participantswereaskedtoevaluatethevulnerabilityforall10ofthefocalresources.Thetwo-dayworkshopprovidedparticipantswithbaselineknowledgeandunderstandingofclimatetrends(current,historic,projectedfuture)forAmericanSamoa

2http://ecoadapt.org/workshops/NMSAS-VA-workshop

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andcollectivelyassessedvulnerabilitiesofhabitats,species,andecosystemservicestoclimatechangeincludingevaluatingsensitivity,exposure,andadaptivecapacity.Thevulnerabilityassessmentmodelusedinthisprocesscomprisesthreevulnerabilitycomponents(i.e.sensitivity,adaptivecapacity,andexposure),confidenceevaluationsforallcomponents,andoverallvulnerabilityandconfidenceforeachfocalresource.Sensitivity,exposure,andadaptivecapacitycomponentswerebrokendownintospecificelementsbettersuitedtoassessingthevulnerabilityofparticularresourcesforthisassessment.Sensitivityelementsforhabitatsandecosystemservicesinclude:directsensitivitytoclimate,climate-drivenchanges,andnon-climatestressors.Disturbanceregimesandnon-climatestressorsarealsoincludedinspeciessensitivity;however,severalotherelementsarebettersuitedtoassessingspecies’sensitivityincluding:generalist/specialist,physiology,lifehistory,ecologicalrelationships,anddependenceonsensitivehabitats.Duringtheworkshop,participantsassignedaranking(1-lowto5-high)toeachfinerresolutionelementforsensitivity,exposure,andadaptivecapacity,andprovidedacorrespondingconfidencescore(e.g.,1-lowto3-high)totherankingforallfocalresources.Theseindividualrankingsandconfidencescoreswerethenaveragedtogeneraterankingsandconfidencescoresforeachvulnerabilitycomponent(i.e.,sensitivity,adaptivecapacity,exposurescore).Resultspresentedinarange(e.g.,frommoderatetohigh)reflectvariabilityassessedbyparticipants.Pleasenotethatparticipantsfeltthatitwasbesttofocusonfutureclimateandclimate-drivenchangesforoverthenext20yearsratherthan50-100yearsbecauseparticipantsfelttheyneededmoreinformationtoassessvulnerabilityoveralongertimeframe.Rankingsforeachvulnerabilitycomponent(i.e.,sensitivity,adaptivecapacity,exposure)werethencombinedintoanoverallvulnerabilityscorethatwascalculatedasfollows:

Vulnerability=(ClimateExposure+ClimateSensitivity)–(AdaptiveCapacity)

STEP3:AdaptationPlanningWorkshopandMethodsTheadaptationstrategyplanningprocessconsistsofanalysisofvulnerabilitiesofcurrentmanagementgoals,strategies,andactionsandanassessmentonwaystheycanbemoreresilientandlessvulnerabletoclimateandnon-climatestressors.Italsoconsistedofbrainstormingnewgoals,strategiesandactionsthatcanhelptheresourcebecomemoreresilientandlessvulnerabletoclimateandnon-climatestressors.

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Figure4.Visualrepresentationoftherelationshipbetweenadaptationgoals,strategies,andspecificactions.

AdaptationTerminologyandDefinitionsAdaptationGoal:Adesiredresultforagivenresource.

Adaptationstrategy:Generalstatementsofhowtoreducevulnerabilitiesorincreaseresilienceofcurrentmanagementgoals.

Adaptationactions:Specificactivitiesthatfacilitateprogresstowardsachievinganadaptationstrategy.

AdaptationStrategyWorkshopActivitiesTheSeptember2016adaptationplanningworkshop3goalsweretodevelopclimate-informedadaptationstrategiesandactionstoconservepriorityresourcesintheNationalMarineSanctuaryandTerritoryofAmericanSamoa.Participantsidentifiedbothcurrentandfuturemanagementgoalsforeachofthefocalresources.Thepurposeofidentifyingcurrentmanagementgoalsistoprovideafoundationforevaluatingwhetherandhowclimatechangemightaffecttheabilitytoachieveagivengoal,andtodevelopoptionsforreducingvulnerabilitiesthroughrevisedmanagementactivities.Foreachmanagementgoal,participantsidentifiedpotentialclimatechangevulnerabilities.Thisactivitywasfollowedbytheevaluationofcurrentmanagementactions,includingwhether,intheircurrentform,theycanhelptoreduceidentifiedvulnerabilitiesand/orhowtheycanbemodifiedtobetteraddressclimatechallenges.Followingtheevaluationofpotentialvulnerabilitiesofcurrentmanagementgoalsandactions,participantsexploredpotentialfuturemanagementgoalsandadaptationstrategiesandidentifiedmorespecificadaptationactionsdesignedtoreducevulnerabilitiesorincreaseresilienceoftheselectedfocalresources.Foreachadaptationaction,participantsthenevaluatedwhere,when,andhowtoimplementthoseactionsaswellascollaborationandcapacityneeds.

3http://ecoadapt.org/workshops/NMSAS-AS-workshop

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CurrentManagementGoalsandPotentialVulnerabilitiesWorkshopparticipantsidentifiedkeycurrentmanagementgoalsandtheirpotentialclimateandnon-climatevulnerabilities.Inresponsetothesevulnerabilities,participantsthenevaluatedwhetherornotexistingmanagementactionsmaybeeffectiveinreducingvulnerability;identifiedwhat,ifany,climateandnon-climatevulnerabilitiestheactionhelpsreduce;andevaluatedthefeasibilityofactionimplementation.Givenactioneffectivenessandfeasibility,participantsthenevaluatedwhetherornottocontinueimplementationoftheaction.Forthoseactionsrecommendedforcontinuedimplementation,participantsthenidentifiedbothhowandwheretoimplement.

FutureManagementGoalsandAdaptationActionsWorkshopparticipantsalsoidentifiedthepossiblefuturemanagementgoalsandadaptationactionsforeachresource.Theythenevaluatedactioneffectivenessandfeasibility;identifiedthetimeframeforactionimplementation;describedwhereandhowtoimplementtheaction;andidentifiedcollaborationandcapacityneeds.Timeframe,collaborationandcapacityneedsaredefinedbelow.

• Implementationtimeframe:Identifywhenaparticularactioncouldfeasiblybeimplemented.

o Near-term:<5years;Mid-term:5-15years;orLong-term:>15years.• Collaboration:Identifyanyotheragencies,organizations,orpeopleneededto

collaboratewithinordertoimplementanaction.• Capacityneeded:Identifycapacityneededforimplementationsuchasdata,stafftime

andresources,funding,orpolicychanges,amongothers.Theseworkshopactivitiesgeneratedarangeofrecommendedadaptationactionsthatcouldbeimplementedbothnowandinthefuture.Theresultingactionsarenotcomprehensive,andusersofthisreportareencouragedtoexploreadditionaladaptationactionsthatmayhelpreducevulnerabilities,increaseresilience,orcapitalizeonopportunitiespresentedbyclimatechange.

AdaptationActionFeasibilityParticipantswerealsoaskedtoassesstheeffectiveness,feasibility,andimplementationofallactionsidentified.TheseassessmentshelpidentifywhichactionscanbeeasilyimplementedandthosethatmightneedmorecollaborationandlongertimeframestohelpdevelopanimplementationplaninSTEP4oftheAdaptationPlanningProcess.Participantswereaskedtoidentifythefollowing:

• Actioneffectiveness:Identifytheeffectivenessoftheactioninreducingvulnerability.o High:actionisverylikelytoreducevulnerabilityandmaybenefitadditionalgoals

orhabitatso Moderate:actionhasmoderatepotentialtoreducevulnerability,withsome

limitstoeffectivenesso Low:actionisunlikelytoreducevulnerability

• Actionfeasibility:Identifyfeasibilityofimplementingtheaction.

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o High:therearenoobviousbarriersandithasahighlikelihoodofbeingimplemented

o Moderate:itmaybepossibletoimplementtheaction,althoughtheremaybechallengesorbarriers

o Low:thereareobviousand/orsignificantbarrierstoimplementationthatmaybedifficulttoovercome

• Howtoimplement:Identifyhowtoapplythisactiongivenvulnerabilities.Forexample,considerplantingnativespeciesthatcancopewitharangeoffutureconditionsorthosebestadaptedtoprojectedfutureconditions.

• Wheretoimplement:Identifythemanagement,ecological,orsiteconditionswheretheactioncouldbemostappropriatelyimplemented.Forexample,isitbesttoimplementincoralhabitatsthatareresilienttobleaching.

Chapter3 VulnerabilityAssessmentandAdaptationPlanningResults

SummaryOverallthevulnerabilityassessmentofthe10focalresourceswasmoderatetolow-moderatewithmostlyhighandmoderateconfidencescores.Thisisprobablyduetolimited20-yeartimeframethatparticipantschosetouseratherthanconsideringmultiplescenariosandtimestepsof10,20,50,and100years(Glicketal.2011).Iflongertimeframeswereusedforthisvulnerabilityassessment,onewouldexpecthighervulnerabilityandlowerconfidencescores.FOCALRESOURCE VULNERABILITYSCORE CONFIDENCESCORE

CoralReefHabitat Moderate High

MangroveHabitat Low-Moderate High

WaterQuality Moderate High

GiantClam Moderate High

HerbivoreReefFish Low-Moderate High

CharismaticReefFish Low-Moderate High

ReefPiscivores Low-Moderate High

PelagicFish Moderate High

SharksandRays Low-Moderate Moderate

SeaTurtles Moderate Moderate

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1.CoralReefHabitat

IntroductionCoralreefsinAmericanSamoaincludethreezones:reefflat,reefcrest,andreefslope.Reefflatsareshallowandnarrow(50-500m)systemsextendingfromshoretothereefcrest.Reefcrestsareshallowsystemsrepresentingthehighestpointofthereefsystemanddividingreefflatfromslope;theyareoccasionallyexposedduringlowtides,asarereefflats.Reefslopesdescend20-30mindepthontheoceanicsideofthereefcrest.Differencesintemperature,salinity,waveaction,waterdepth,andsedimentationbetweenthesethreezonesaffectscoralcommunitycomposition.However,AmericanSamoancoralreefcommunitiesaregenerallydominatedbycrustosecorallinealgaewithlivehardcoralsbeinglessdominant,andbrownmacroalgaeoccasionallyoccurringonreefslopesandflats(Fenneretal.2008;USDOCNOAAONMS2012).UniquecoralcommunitiesoccuratRoseAtollandSwainsIsland(Kendall2011;USDOCNOAAONMS2012).Ingeneral,coralreefsystemsharborhighbiodiversity(USDOCNOAAONMS2012).

VulnerabilityAssessmentResultsWorkshopparticipantsevaluatedcoralreefsinAmericanSamoatohaveamoderaterelativevulnerabilitytoclimatechangeduetomoderate-highsensitivitytoclimateandnon-climatestressors,moderateexposuretofutureclimatechanges,andmoderate-highadaptivecapacity.Coralreefsaresensitivetonumerousclimatestressors,includingoceanacidification,seasurfacetemperature,tropicalstorms,runoff/streamflow,coastalerosion,andcurrents,mixing,andstratification.Thesestressorsdirectlyaffectcoralsurvival,recruitment,andgrowth,aswellasalterwaterqualitybyaffectingsediment,pollutant,andnutrientdelivery.Climatestressorsmayalsoincreasecoralsusceptibilitytodisturbanceregimes,includingdiseaseandcrown-of-thornsstarfishoutbreaks,whichelevatecoralmortality.Coralreefsaresensitivetoseveralnon-climatestressors,includingdredging,landusechange,overwater/underwaterstructures,nutrientloading,sedimentation,trampling,seawalls,andfishing.Non-climatestressorscandirectlydegradeanddestroycoralcommunities,andwilllikelycompounddecliningwaterqualitytrendsoccurringwithclimatechange.CoralreefsinAmericanSamoaaregenerallyhealthyandcontinuousaroundislands,andhavebeenabletorecoverfromavarietyofpastenvironmentaldisturbances,althoughtheyarelessresilienttohumandisturbances.Highcoralbiodiversityenhancesoverallresilience,butfuturefunctionalgroupshiftsmayoccurasmanyreef-buildingcoralspeciesarevulnerabletoclimatechange,whichwillimpactoverallreefstability.Coralreefsprovideimportantcommercialandsubsistencefishingopportunities,aswellasotherecosystemservicessuchasbiodiversity,coastalprotection,andrecreation.Avarietyofmarineprotectedareashavebeenestablished;however,theycoveronlyasmallpercentageofexistingreefhabitat,andprotectiveregulationsvarybetweensites.

PhotobyNationalParkService

HighConfidence

ModerateVulnerability

Low High

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CurrentManagementActionsGoal1:ProtectCoralReefHabitat

• Waterqualitytestingforbacteriaandnearshorenutrientinput,sometimesresultinginbeachclosures

• Reducelitterandmarinedebris• Federal,territorial,andvillageMarineProtectedAreas(MPAs)• NodischargeandanchoringintheSanctuary

Goal2:Controlcrown-of-thornsstarfishoutbreaks• Targetedcrown-ofthornsstarfisheradicationwithoxbile• Manualeradicationofcrown-ofthornsstarfish(spearorbash)• Bantakeoflargereeffish(e.g.,humpheadwrasse),whicharebelievedtobecrown-of-

thornspredatorsGoal3:Useeducationandoutreachtoprotectcoralreefsandbringthesitetothepeople

• SchoolprogramssuchasReefCheck(gearedtowardanyaudience;provideseducationoncoralfragilityandimportanceofcoralhabitatsoaudiencecanbecomeenvironmentalsteward)

• Virtualexperienceforstudents,allowingthemtoseechanges,includingclimatechangeimpactswithspecialgoggles

FutureManagementActionsGoal1:Decreasenutrientinputandsedimentationintocoastalwaters

• EnsurepiggerycomplianceandenforceEPAregulations• Supportsewerexpansions,newwastewatertreatmentplants,properseptictank

installation,andcesspoolremoval• Plantmoretrees/plantsincoastalareasandinvillagestoreducerunoff• Ensurecomplianceofcoastaldevelopmentsetbacks• Startawetlandsrestorationproject• Education/outreachonstrengtheningvillagelaws• Removeallwastewateroutfalls

Goal2:Coolingforbleachingpreventionandreduction• Movedeeper,coolerwatertoshallow,warmerareas

Goal3:Developresilientmarineprotectedareas(MPAs)–designfutureMPAsinareasthatareclimateresilientandeffectiveformultiplespecies(considernetworkofMPAs)

• Analyzewhatisalreadyinplaceandwhatisworkingtoidentifypriorityareasforprotection

• Alloweasyexchangeofdataandaccessibilityofinformationtoallowmanagerstoassesschangesovertime

Goal4:Assembleacoralreefdatabaseanddevelopsharingmethodformanagementanddecisionsupport

• Developeasyexchangeandaccessibilityofinformationtoallowmanagerstoassesschangesovertime

Goal5:Usecoralnurserygardensforrestoration• Selectcoralsthatdonotbleachforrestorationprojects

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FeasibilityandEffectivenessofCurrentandFutureManagementActions

Figure5.FeasibilityandEffectivenessofCurrent(blue)andFutureAdaptationActionsforCoralReefs.

Note:Effectivenessandfeasibilityforcoralreefcurrentmanagementactionsincludes,amongotherfactors,workshopparticipants’perceptionsofcurrentacceptanceandcompliance.Engagingthecommunitytocreategreateracceptanceandcompliancecanleadtohighereffectiveness.Additionally,onereviewercommentedthatitisgoodtoselectcoralsthatareresilienttobleachingforrestorationprojects,butitisgenerallyconsideredineffectivebecauseofthescaleoftheprocess,i.e.,theamountofworkneededislargeandtheareaofreefrestoredissmall.Therefore,thereviewersuggestedmoving“selectcoralthatdoesnotbleachtorestorationprojects”fromtheupperrighttothelowerleft.

2.MangrovesandLagoonHabitat

IntroductionMangroveforestsinAmericanSamoaarefoundonlyonTutuliaandAunu’uIslands,andincludetidalfringingandinterior/partiallyenclosedbasinforests.Theyaretypicallyfoundinshelteredcoastallagoonsandprotectedareasnearstreammouths(ASCCFP2010).Threemangrovespeciesoccur:orientalmangrove(Bruguieragymnorrhiza)isthedominantspecies,redmangrove(Rhizophoramangle)canbefoundalongseawardmargins,andthepuzzlenuttree

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(Xylocarpusmoluccensis)isquiterare.Othermangroveforestassociatesincludebeachhibiscus(Hibiscustiliaceus),fish-poisontree(Barringtoniaasiatica),andTahitianchestnut(Inocarpusfagifer)(BardiandMann2004).Mangroveforeststhriveinbrackishwaterconditions,andprovidecriticalhabitatforavarietyoffish,invertebrate,andmolluskspecies(USDOCNOAAONMS2012).

VulnerabilityAssessmentResults

WorkshopparticipantsevaluatedAmericanSamoanmangrovestohavealow-moderaterelativevulnerabilitytoclimatechangeduetomoderatesensitivitytoclimateandnon-climatestressors,moderateexposuretoprojectedfutureclimatechanges,andmoderateadaptivecapacity.Mangroveforestsaresensitivetocoastalerosionandsealevelrise,whichcauselandwardretreat,potentiallyleadingtohabitatextirpationifretreatisimpossible.Earthquakescontributetosealevelchangesandtsunamirisk;tsunamisandcyclonescanseverelydamagemangrovesystemsandcausehightreemortality.Non-climatestressorsplaythelargestroleinAmericanSamoanmangrovedecline.Mangroveclearingchangesthecoastalhydrologyresultingindebris,nutrientandpollutantbuildup.Additionally,roads/armoringcanblocklandwardmangrovemigration,increasinghabitatvulnerabilitytosealevelrise.SignificantportionsofmangroveforestshavebeenlosttohumanlanduseinAmericanSamoa;onlyfivestandsacrosstwoislandsremain,encompassingroughly52hectares(USDOCNOAAONMS2012).Mangrovesmaynotrecoverfromextensivealterationormortality;whenstandsdorecovernaturally,recoverytimerangesfrom15-30years.Facilitatedrehabilitationhasexperiencedvaryingsuccess.Asthekeyfunctionalgroup,lowmangrovediversityincreaseshabitatvulnerabilitytoclimatechange,althoughdiversityamongstaffiliatetreespeciesishigher.Mangrovesprovideavarietyofecosystemservices(e.g.,biodiversity,fishnurseryhabitat,coastalprotection),althoughthereislowculturalrecognitionoftheseservices.Mangrovesareprotectedthroughseveralregulatorymechanisms,butalackofenforcementunderminesthislegalprotection.

CurrentManagementActionsGoal:Controlresidential/commercialdevelopmentnearmangrovestoprotectmangrovehabitat

• Preventbuildingovermangrovesthroughpermittingprocess(ProjectNotificationandReviewSystem–PRNS)

• EnforcementofspecialmanagementareasdesignedspecificallytoprotectmangrovesonTutuila

FutureManagementActionsGoal1:Reducenon-climatestressorssuchasdebrisfromstreamsthatdestroy/smothermangrovehabitat

• Removedebrisfrommangrovehabitats

Low-ModerateVulnerability

Low High

HighConfidence

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• Educatepeopleontheeffectofdebrisonmangrovesandenforcebanondebristhrownoutupstream

• IncreaseuseofstreamcatchmentstocatchdebrisGoal2:Increasepublicknowledgeofimportanceofmangrovesandincreaselocalenforcement.

• Createmangroveeducationandoutreachcampaigntoincreaseunderstandingofmangrovesandunderstandingofexistingguidelinesinpoliciesthatprotectmangroves

• Createtargetedvillageeducationandoutreachcampaigntoincreaselikelihoodofregulationenforcement


Figure6.FeasibilityandEffectivenessofCurrent(blue)andFutureAdaptationActionsforMangroves.

3.WaterQuality

IntroductionWaterqualityinAmericanSamoaiscompromisedbyincreasedpopulationgrowth,clearingforagriculture,andincreasedbacterial,pharmaceutical,pesticide,pathogen,andnutrientpollutionfrompoorlyconstructedhumanandpiggerywastedisposalsystems.MostofthewellsandpumpsforgroundwaterdistributionarefoundintheTafuna-Leoneplain,whichisalsowheremostresidentsandbusinessesarelocated(ASEPA2014).SincetheTutuilavolcanicstratumisverypermeable,itisalsoveryvulnerabletocontaminationandpollutionfromrain

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events,causingrunoffofpollutantssuchasoilandgasfromautomobiles,andpathogensandnutrientloadingfrompoorlyconstructedhumansandpigwastewatersystems.Streamwater,whichwastraditionallyusedastheprimarypotablewater,hasalsobeencompromisedbydevelopmentalongstreamscausingsedimentation,increasederosion,andnutrientandbacterialloadingfromanimalandhumanwaste(ASEPA2014).Alongthecoastalshoreline,poorwaterqualityhasbeenthreateningnearbyfringingreefs.Sincetheconstructionoftheairport,whichalterednaturalcirculationpatternsinthePalaLagoon,theareahashadpoorwaterqualityandlowbiodiversity(Craig2009;ASEPA2014).PagoPagoHarboralsohaspoorwaterqualityduetodegradedconditionsfromfuel/oilspillsandtoxins,andhigheutrophicationfromnutrientloadingfromland-basedsourcesofpollution(USDOCNOAAONMS2012).Thefishandinvertebratesintheharborareevencontaminatedwithheavymetals(USDOCNOAAONMS2012).

VulnerabilityAssessmentResultsTherelativevulnerabilityofwaterqualityinAmericanSamoawasevaluatedbyworkshopparticipantstobemoderate-highduetohighsensitivitytoclimateandnon-climatestressors,highexposuretoprojectedfuturechanges,andmoderatetohighadaptivecapacity.Waterqualityissensitivetoclimatedriversthatalterhydrologyofriversandstreams,suchasairtemperature,tropicalstorms,precipitation,anddrought,causingsoilerosion,pollution,andnutrientloading.Otherclimatedrivers,suchasoceanacidificationandincreasedoceantemperatures,willimpactwaterqualityofnearshorecoastalwaters.WaterinAmericanSamoaisalimitedresourcefoundingroundwaterandstreams,andisveryvulnerabletoincreaseddemandduetodevelopmentandpopulationgrowth.Sealevelriseandincreasedstormswillincreasesaltwaterintrusionintogroundwaterreserves(UGCRP2009).

CurrentManagementActionsGoal:Improvewaterquality

• Improvesewageeffluentqualityandsewagetreatmento Secondarytreatmento UVlightso Fixleakingpipes

• Improvegroundwaterqualityo Fixleakingpipeso Sealcesspoolsandconverttoseptico Oilcollectiono Pesticidecontrolo Identifyresilientaquiferso Microfiltrationplants

• Improvesurfacewaterqualityandstormwatermanagemento Netsatstreammouthstocatchdebris

HighConfidence

Moderate-HighVulnerability

Low High

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o Raingardens/soakbedso Tamaligitreeremovalo ProjectNotificationandReviewSystem(PNRS)sedimentpermitrequirement

• EnforcetheKeepAmericanSamoaBeautifulAct(Theanti-litteringbillwassignedintolawOctober2016)

FutureManagementActionsGoal:Developandinstillasenseofresponsibilityinprotectingwatershedsanddisposingofwasteandtrashappropriately

• Increasepubliceducationandoutreach• Implementandenforceenvironmentaldisposalfeetoassistwithfunding• FindalternativestopollutantsforwhichAmericanSamoadoesnothavethecapacityto

disposeofortreat(e.g.,PFCs)


Figure7.FeasibilityandEffectivenessofCurrent(blue)andFutureAdaptationActionsforWaterQuality.

Note:Theanti-litteringbillwassignedintolaw–KeepAmericanSamoaBeautifulAct–nowacurrentaction.

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4.GiantClams

IntroductionGiantclams,includingTridacnamxima,T.squamosa,andT.noae,aregenerallyfoundalongreeftopsandslopesofclearandshallowAmericanSamoawaters.TheyareparticularlyabundantinthesanctuaryMuliāvaManagementAreaandRoseAtollMarineNationalMonument,aswellasthenorthandwestsidesofTa’u.TheyhaveaspecialsignificancetoAmericanSamoaculturalheritage,thefa’a-Samoathusareatrisktobeoverfished(USDOCNOAAONMS2012).Fa'alavelave,traditionalgatheringsamongcommunitiesandextendedfamilies,includeofferingsofgiantclamswhenavailable(Fenneretal.2008).TherehavebeensomeaquacultureeffortsforTridacnasp.inTutuilaandinitiatinggrow-outfacilitiesinAunu’uandtheManu’aislands(USDOCNOAAONMS2012).Giantclams,Tridacnasp.werelistedvulnerableontheIUCNredListin2006(IUCN2014).

VulnerabilityAssessmentResultsWorkshopparticipantsandexpertsevaluatedgiantclamsinAmericanSamoatohaveamoderaterelativevulnerabilitytoclimatechangeduetomoderate-highsensitivitytoclimateandnon-climatestressors,moderateexposuretofutureclimatechanges,andmoderate-highadaptivecapacity.Giantclamsaresensitivetoseveralclimatestressors,includingoceanacidification,oceantemperature,currents,mixing,andstratification.Thesestressorscandirectlyaffectrecruitmentandgrowthofgiantclams.

CurrentManagementActionsGoal:Increasegiantclampopulations

• Enforceharvestregulationstoavoidover-harvestofthisculturallyimportantresource

FutureManagementActionsGoal:Increasegiantclampopulations/stocksbysupportingfisheriesinshallowwatersandstockingclamsindeeperwaters

• Supporthatcheryoperationsforstockinginshallowwatertosupportfisheriesandstockingclamsindeepwaterbeyond100ft.(30.5m)forstockreplenishment

• Conductageneticstudyofgiantclamsbetweenislandstodiversifyseedsource


Low High HighConfidence

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Figure8.FeasibilityandEffectivenessofCurrent(blue)andFutureAdaptationActionsforGiantClams.

5.ReefFishAvulnerabilityassessmentwasconductedforreefherbivores,reefpiscivores,andcharismaticreeffish.Duringthevulnerabilityassessmentworkshopsparticipantfeltthateachdifferenttypeofreeffishassemblageshouldbeconsideredindependentlysincetheyhaveuniqueattributes.Duringtheadaptationstrategyworkshops,participantsfeltthatcurrentandfuturemanagementactionstoreducevulnerabilitiesandincreaseresiliencewouldbethesameforallreefdependentfishes,thustheyshouldbeconsideredasareeffishassemblageandnotdifferentiatedbytheirattributes.

ReefHerbivoresIntroductionCommonreefherbivorousfishusedforsubsistence,artisanal,andrecreationalpurposesincludethesurgeonfisheriessuchasthelinedsurgeonfishoralogo(Acanthuruslineatus)andmaniniandpone(Acanthurussp.)(Craig2009).Otherreefherbivoresincludeparrotfishes(Scaridae),soldierfishes/squirrelfishes(Holocentridae),wrasses(Labridae),andgoatfishes(Mullidae).ThealogoisaquiteabundantandpopularSamoanfoodfishandaccountsforapproximately30%ofreeffishcaughtforthesubsistencefishery,whilethemaniniandponearealsoabundantandpopularsubsistenceandartisanalfisheries(Craig2009).Parrotfishesandsurgeonfishesalsohavecloseassociationtothereefenvironment.Parrotfishesareknownasbioeroders,feedingondetritusonreefsbyscrappingreefsurfaces,whilesurgeonfishesare

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morediverseandcanfeedonbothplantanddetritalmatter.Allreefherbivorousfishescontributeinlimitingalgalgrowthincoralreefsandhelpingtomaintaindiversityandcoralreefhealth(Comeros-Raynal2012).Globallythesespeciesassemblagesareatlowriskofextinction.However,theyareregionallythreatenedduetoincreasedharvestfromsubsistencefisheries.Thebumpheadparrotfish(Bolbometaponmuricatum)isconsideredaprizecatchandhasbeenlistedasaspeciesofconcernbecauseofillegalspearfishingandhabitatdegradation(USDOCNOAAONMS2012).

ReefHerbivoreFishVulnerabilityAssessmentResults

Therelativevulnerabilityofherbivorousreeffishwasevaluatedbyworkshopparticipantstobelowtomoderateduetomoderatesensitivitytoclimateandnon-climatestressors,suchasseasurfacetemperatures,habitatdestructionbydisease,andinvasivespeciessuchasthecrown-of-thornsstarfish;moderateexposuretoprojectedfutureclimatechangesinthenext20yearsofincreasednutrientrunoffandsedimentationfromprecipitationandextremestorms;andhighadaptivecapacity.Reeffishtendtoliveneartheupperendoftheirthermaltolerancelimitandmayexperiencephysiologicalanddevelopmentalimpactsandrangeshiftsduetoincreasesinseatemperature(GuidryandMackenzie2001;Leongetal.2014).

ReefPiscivoresIntroductionThereareover69differentspeciesofreeffishandinvertebratesspecies/assemblagesconsumedandsoldinAmericanSamoa.Ofthosetargeted,reef-dependentpiscivoresincludejacks(Carangidae),snappers(Lutjanidae),groupers(Serranidae),andemperorfish(Lethrinidae)(LevineandAllen2009).Continuedoverfishinganddeclinesincoralreefhabitatwillnegativelyimpactreeffishpopulations,whicharevaluabletocommercial,recreational,andsubsistencefishermen(Greggetal.2016).Manyreef-dependentfishthatusecoralreefsforspawning,foraging,protection,andfeedingwilllikelyexperiencepopulationdeclinesascoralsdegradeduetoincreasedseatemperature,oceanacidifcation,andinvasivespecies(Leongeta.2014).

ReefPiscivoresVulnerabilityAssessmentResults

Therelativevulnerabilityofreef-dependentpiscivoreswasevaluatedbyworkshopparticipantstobelowtomoderateduetomoderatetohighsensitivitytoclimaticandnon-climaticstressorsincludingoceanacidificationandincreasedseasurfacetemperaturesimpactingreefhabitatandbiologicalprocesses,suchasgrowthandreproduction.Reef-dependentpiscivoresalsoareimpactedbyhighfishingpressureandnutrientloading/pollutionbuthavehighadaptivecapacitywithincreasedmanagementofbothhabitatandspeciesassemblages.

CharismaticReefFishIntroductionReeffish(bothpiscivoresandherbivores)areabundantandhighlydiversewithover930species(Craig2009).Manycoralreeffishareterritorialalgaleatersandhabitatspecialists,


Low High HighConfidence


Low High

HighConfidence

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Low High

tendingtoonlyfrequentcertainhabitatswithinthecoralreefsystemwithsometakingpermanentresidence,suchasdamsels(Pomacentridae),mano’oblennies,andgobies(Gobiidae)(Wass1984).Damselfishinparticularareveryterritorialandaggressivelyprotecttheirhabitat.Butterflyfishesarefullydependentonfeedingonlivecoralandarevulnerabletotheoveralldeclineincoralreefsworldwide(Coleetal.2008).Charismaticreefspeciesassemblagesarealsovulnerabletocaptureforaquariaand/orbioprospectingtrade,althoughthereiscurrentlynoharvestforthemarineornamentalindustryinAmericanSamoa.

CharismaticReefFishVulnerabilityAssessmentResults

Therelativevulnerabilityofcharismaticreeffishwasevaluatedbyworkshopparticipantstobelowtomoderateduetomoderatetohighsensitivitytoclimaticandnon-climaticfactorssuchasoceanacidification,increasedseatemperature,landusechanges,anddredgingthatimpactscoralreefhabitat.Speciesassemblageswillbeimpactedbyfuturemoderateexposureofincreasedseasurfacetemperatureanderosioncausingfurthersedimentationtothecoralreefhabitat.

CurrentManagementActionsForAllReefFishAssemblagesGoal:Protectreeffishpopulationsandensuresustainablefishingpractices§ Fullyutilizeandenforceallfishingregulations

o 2001AmericanSamoaGovernorExecutiveOrderbannedSCUBAfishingduetodepletionofreefpiscivoresandherbivoresandincreaseinfishingefficacy

o Minimumfishingnetsize,andnetscannotbeleftovernight;netscanonlybeleftunattended3-5hours

o Dailycatchlimitsexistinfederalwater(3-200miles)(5-322km.)o DepartmentofMarineandWildlifeResourcesCommunity-BasedFisheries

ManagementProgram(0-3miles)(0-5km.)o Non-destructivefishingruleinterritorialwaterso Encouragetruetraditionalandculturalfishingmethods–thefa’a-Samoa“Samoan

way”

FutureManagementActionsForAllReefFishAssemblages

Goal:Promotediverseandhealthyreeffishpopulations§ Setsizelimits–makesuretheyareoverthereproductiveage(greaternumberofyearsat

reproductiveagecouldincreasethelikelihoodofrecruitmentsuccess)§ Setcatchlimits–numberofindividualfishperday(ifsold,commerciallicensestillneeded)

High

Confidence

31

FeasibilityandEffectivenessofCurrentandFutureManagementActionsforAllReefFishAssemblages

Figure9.FeasibilityandEffectivenessofCurrent(blue)andFutureAdaptationActionsforReeffish.

6.PelagicFish

IntroductionPelagicfishspeciesintheregionaremanagedthroughtheWesternandCentralPacificFisheriesCommissionandincludemigratorytunassuchasthebigeye(Thunnusobesus),yellowfinorasiasi(T.albacares),albacoreorapakoal(T.alalunga),dogtoothortagi(Gymnosardaunicolor)andskipjackoratu(Katsuwonuspelamis)(Craig2009).Otherimportantspeciesincludebillfish(Tetrapturusauda,Makairamazara,Xiphiasgladius),dolphinfish(Coryphaenahippurus,C.equiselas)andwahoo(Acanthocybiumsolandri)(Craig2009).Mostpelagicfishpreferopenoceanareaandseldomcomeclosetoshore;occasionallythedogtoothtunaisseenalongreefareas.AlthoughAmericanSamoahasalargetunapackingcanneryindustry(ChickenoftheSea),tunaisnotparticularlyabundantintheregionandmostofthetunacannedlocallyusefishcaughtinotherareas(USDOCNOAAONMS2012).

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Commerciallyvaluablepelagicfishspecieswereevaluatedtobemoderatelyvulnerablebyworkshopparticipantsduetochangesintemperature,oceancirculation,andoceanacidification.CommonmigratorypelagictunashavealreadyshownresponsestoincreasedtemperaturesandchangesincirculationpatternsduringElNiñoSouthernOscillation(ENSO)events(Keeneretal.2012;Leongetal.2014).Futurechangesindistributionandabundanceofmigratoryspeciesmightresultduetochangesincreasedtemperatureandchangesincurrentsaffectingpreyavailabilityandthermaltolerance.

CurrentManagementActions/FutureManagementActionsParticipantsdidnotevaluatecurrentandfuturemanagementactionsforpelagicfish.Theydiscussedpelagicfishalongwithsharksandraysbutdidnotcompleteafullassessment(seebelow).

7.SharksandRays

IntroductionCommonspeciesofsharksinAmericanSamoaincludetheblacktipreefshark(Carcharhinusmelanopterus)andthewhitetipreefshark(Triaenodonobesus).Otherrarerspeciesincludehammerheadsharks,tigersharks(Galeocerdocuvier),andwhalesharks(Rhincodontypus)(Craig2009).ThemostcommonspeciesofraysinAmericanSamoaareEaglerays(Myliobatidaesp.).SharksandraysaregenerallyrareacrossIndo-Pacificcoralreefhabitats,andhavebeenprotectedfromcatchandpossessionsince2012(Craig2009;USDOCNOAAONMS2012).AlthoughsharksarenottypicallytargetedinAmericanSamoa,violationshavebeenobserved.Blacktipandwhitetipreefsharksarecommonlyfoundinnearshorewatersandsightedwhilediving,snorkeling,andswimming.HammerheadsharksareknowntogivebirthinPagoPagoHarbor,whilefewtigersharkshavebeencaughtaroundTutuila(Craig2009).Increasedseasurfacetemperaturesmayaffectsharkandrayranges,preyavailability,andembryonicdevelopment(Hobdayetal.2009).Extremeprecipitationeventscanalsodiminishtheirabilitytoeffectivelyusetheirsenseofsmellandelectroreceptiontolocateprey(Hobdayetal.2009).


Sharksandrayswereevaluatedhavelowtomoderatevulnerabilitybyworkshopparticipantsduetoclimateandnon-climatestressorssuchasoceanacidification,seasurfacetemperature,andchangesincurrentsandwind.Althoughsharksareprotected,therearethreatsofharvestforsharkfins.Sharksandraysareimpactedbythesameoceanographicconditionsthataffect


Low High ModConfidence

HighConfidence


Low High

33

pelagicfish,andaswellasbyland-basedstressorsincludingcoastalerosion,sedimentation,andrunoff.

CurrentManagementActionsParticipantsattheworkshopwerenotfamiliarwithcurrentmanagementactionsforsharksandraysandwerenotcomfortableaddressingcurrentmanagementactionsvulnerabilitytoclimatechangesinthisworkshop.(Note:SharkfishingisprohibitedbytheAmericanSamoaGovernment).

FutureManagementActionsGoal:Increaseresearchonsharksandrays

§ Increaseresearchtoidentifyspawning/rearingcriticalhabitat(mostareprotected)§ Increaseresearchonclimatechangeeffectsonsharksandrays§ Increasedenforcementandcourtoutreachandcapacitytoleadtoconvictions


Figure10.FeasibilityandEffectivenessofCurrent(blue)andFutureAdaptationActionsforSharksandRays.

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8.SeaTurtles

IntroductionSeaturtlesinAmericanSamoa,alsocalledLaumei(DMWR2006),includetheendangeredhawksbillseaturtle(Eretmochelysimbricata)(USDOCNOAAONMS2012)andtheendangeredgreenseaturtle(Cheloniamydas)(81FR20058).Bothspeciesaregloballydistributedthroughouttropicalandsub-tropicalzones.Locally,juvenilesofbothspeciesarecommonlyfoundinnear-shorecoralreefhabitatsinAmericanSamoa.IthasbeenassumedthatonlyhawksbillsnestonbeachesofTutuila,Aunu’uandtheManuaIslands(Craig2009);however,recenttaggingworkbyDMWRandtheNationalParkofAmericanSamoahaveconfirmedthatsubstantialproportionsofturtlesnestingonOfuaregreenturtles(percomm,M.MacDonald,DMWR)additionalsurveysareneededtodetermineifthesameistrueofotherislands.ThereisasubstantialnestingaggregationofgreenturtlesatRoseAtoll.NMFSscientistsestimateasmanyas300greenturtlesnestthere(Orametal2016),makingRoseAtoll,asignificantsourcepopulationsforthecentralSouthPacificDistinctPopulationSegmentofgreenturtles.NestingturtlesfromRoseAtollhavebeentrackedreturningtoforageareasinSamoa,AmericanSamoa,Fiji,CookIslands,Vanuatu,Tahiti,PapuaNewGuinea,andFrenchPolynesia(NMFS2015).

VulnerabilityAssessmentResultsOverallseaturtlevulnerabilitywasratedasmoderatebyworkshopparticipantsduetomoderatesensitivitytoclimateandnon-climatestressors,moderateexposuretoprojectedfutureclimatechanges,andlowtomoderateadaptivecapacity.Seaturtlesarevulnerabletolossofhabitatduetosealevelriseandcoastalerosion(Poloczanskaetal.2009).Increasedairandseatemperaturesalsoimpactnestsexcompositionandnestingpreference(ChengandGaskin2011).Seaturtlehabitatisalsothreatenedbycoastaldevelopmentincludingcoastalarmoring,waterquality,andlightpollution(ChengandGaskin2011).Othernon-climaticthreatstoseaturtlesincludeincidentalfisheriescatchandpossiblepredationandpoachingofeggs.

CurrentManagementActionsGoal:Protectnestinghabitat

§ Requirepermitsforsandmining–notalotofspacefornestingonTutuila§ AmendtheProjectNotificationandReviewSystem(PNRS)setbackrequirement–100ft.

(30.48m)fromshoreline§ Monitoringandsatellitetaggingofnestingturtles

FutureManagementActionsGoal1:Protectturtlenestinghabitatbypreservingsand

• Createbanonsandmining(mayrequirechangeinenforcementagencyandneedtoincludeprovisionstoallowforculturaluse)


Low High ModConfidence

35

• IncreaseeducationforwhysandiscriticalforturtlesGoal2:Protectturtlenestsfromheatstress

• Increasenativegrass/vegetationplantingtoprovideshadeGoal3:Protectturtlesbyincreasinglightmanagement

• Useturtle-friendlystreetlightso Paintoverlights;paintsidethatfacesbeacheso Usespecialtypesoflightbulbsalongshorelines

• Increaseeducationforcoastalresidentsandbusinessestoturnlightsoffduringnestingseason

o MotionsensorlightsmayalreadybeinuseGoal4:Createeducationandoutreachcampaignaboutseaturtlesandtheirhabitat.

• Createwidespreadpublicawarenesscampaign• Createacitizenscienceprogramforresidentstoreportwhattheysee• Engagevillagecouncilstohelpprotectandenforcelaws


Figure11.FeasibilityandEffectivenessofCurrent(blue)andFutureAdaptationActionsforSeaTurtles.

36

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Appendices

AppendixI:NationalMarineSanctuaryofAmericanSamoaTheNationalMarineSanctuaryofAmericanSamoaiscurrentlyoneof14sitesoftheNationalMarineSanctuarySystemthatincludesanetworkofunderwaterparksencompassingmorethan600,000squaremiles(1,553,993sq.km.)ofmarineandGreatLakeswatersthroughouttheUSmainlandandPacificIslands.Eachhavingitsownsignificanceformarinelife,culturalandhistoricalphenomenon,economicvalue,tourismandtheuniquepeopleandcommunitiesinwhichtheyarefound;sanctuariesareplaceswherepeopleworktogethertoconserveandprotectspecialplaces(USDOCNOAAONMS2012).OnJuly26,2012,fivediscretegeographicalareaswereaddedtotheexistingFagateleBayNationalMarineSanctuaryandthenameofthesanctuarywaschangedtotheNationalMarineSanctuaryofAmericanSamoa(77FR43942).NOAAalsoamendedexistingsanctuaryregulationsandappliedtheseregulationstoactivitiesintheexpandedsanctuary.ThesefinalregulationstookeffectonOctober15,2012(77FR65815).FagateleBayManagementAreaTheFagateleBayisentirelyno-take.Fishingandotherextractiveusesarenotallowed.Allowed–non-extractiveresearch,education,andrecreation.FagateleBayisa0.25squaremile(0.65sq.km.)treasureoffthesouthwestcoastofTutuila.Asof2012,whenthesanctuaryexpanded,itisnowano-takemarineprotectedareatosupportwhatisoneofthemostbiologicallydiverseareasintheNationalMarineSanctuarySystemandtheonlysanctuarysouthoftheEquator.Thebayhasproventobemoreresilientthanotherreefsintheterritoryaswasseenduringthemostrecent,2015globalcoralbleachingevent.TheculturalsignificanceofFagateleBayliesinitsconnectionwithahistoriccoastalvillagethat

42

occupieditsshoresfromprehistorictimesthroughthe1950s.Thesitehasnotbeenexcavated,butfoundationsofstructuresandpathwaysremainbeneaththeovergrownvegetation.FagateleBaycontainsoneofthefewmarinearchaeologicalrecordsintheterritory:grindingholesorbaitcupscarvedbyAncientSamoansintotheshorelinealongthereefedge(USDOCNOAAONMS2012).Surveyshaveidentifiedatleast200speciesofcoralsinthebaythatarethoughttobethecenterpieceofacommunityofmorethan1,400speciesofalgaeandinvertebratesandmorethan270speciesoffish.Abundantgroupsincludeadultandjuveniledamselfish,surgeonfish,wrasse,butterflyfish,andparrotfish.Herbivorousspeciescanhelpdecreaseavailablesourcesoffoodforthreatslikejuvenilecrown-of-thornsstarfishthatonceadultscandecimatecoralsasseenduringoutbreaksaroundAmericanSamoainthe1970saswellasinrecentyears(USDOCNOAAONMS2012).Fagalua/Fogāma’aManagementAreaAllowed–research,education,recreation,hook-and-linefishing,castnets,spearfishing(non-SCUBAassisted),andothernon-destructivefishingmethodsincludingthosetraditionallyusedforsustenanceandculturalpurposessuchasgleaning,`enuandola(traditionalbasketfishing).Fagalua/Fogāmaˊaisroughly0.46squaremiles(1.19sq.km.)ofbayareaonthesouthwestshoreofTutuila.TheimportanceoftherelationshipbetweenthisbayandthesurroundingenvironmentiscomparabletoFagateleBay,locatedjustovertheridge.Bothcovesareconsideredregionalhotspotswithhighcoralcoverageandmanydifferenttypesofcoralandfishspecies.Becauseofthissimilarity,theareaprovidesareplicatehabitatforincreasedprotection,scientificresearchandoverallresilienceofcoralreefecosystems.Withinthisarea,Fagaluaisthesiteoftwoturtleimagescarvedinaboulder,prehistoricfalefoundationsandmaycontainburiedarcheologicaldeposits(USDOCNOAAONMS2012).

43

Aunu’uManagementAreasZoneA–MultipleUseZoneAllowed–research,educationandrecreation.Hook-and-linefishing,castingnets,spearfishing(non-scubaassisted)andothernon-destructivefishingmethodsincludingthosetraditionallyusedforsustenanceandculturalpurposessuchasgleaning,`enuandola.ZoneB–ResearchZoneAllowed–research,education,recreationandsurfacefishingforpelagicspecies–includingfishingbytrolling.Examplesofpelagicfishinclude:dogtoothorwhitetuna,skipjacktuna,spearfish,billfish,wahoo,masimasi,rainbowrunnerandsailfish.NotAllowed–fishingforbottom-dwellingspecies.Bottomfishingandtrawlingisprohibited.Aunuˊuisasmall,volcanicislandwithalandareaof0.58squaremiles(1.50sq.km.).MajorfeaturesoftheislandincludeAunuˊuCrater,PalaLake(auniqueareaofredquicksand),andFaimulivaiMarsh,thelargestfreshwaterwetlandinAmericanSamoa.TheislandisaNationalParkServiceNationalNaturalLandmark.Theareasurroundingtheislandoverlapswithfourdistinctbiogeographicregions,makingitahighlydiversemarineareathatincludeshotspotsforcoralcover,fishbiomass,andfishrichness(USDOCNOAAONMS2012).

44

Atotalof5.8squaremiles(15.02sq.km.)ofreefandoffshorewatersaroundAunuˊuhavebeenincludedinthesanctuary,with3.9squaremiles(10.10sq.km.)designatedaresearchzoneandallowssurfacefishingforpelagicsonly,and1.9squaremiles(4.92sq.km.)multipleusezonethatallowstraditionalandnon-destructivefishingpractices.Theresearchandmultipleusezoneswillallowforcomparisonsovertimeofanareathatprohibitsthetakeofreeffishandbottomdwellingspeciesandbenefitstoanadjacentareaofhigherhumanusesthatmeetstheneedsofday-to-daylivinginsustainableways(USDOCNOAAONMS2012).TheareaoffthecoastofAunuˊuIslandconsistsofmarinehabitatsofvaryingdepthincludingshallowwaterreefstodeepwaters.ThebenthichabitatssurroundingAunuˊuareverydiverseandcomprisedmostlyofcoralreefandhardbottomformations.Totheeastoftheislandextendsacoralbankwithextensiveaggregatepatchreefonitswesternedge,descendingintodeeperwatersthatsupportmesophoticreefs.Turfalgaedominatemuchofthebankhabitatneartheisland,formingextensivealgalplains.Together,thesefeaturescreateadiversityofhabitatuniqueinAmericanSamoa(USDOCNOAAONMS2012).Ta’uManagementAreaAllowed–research,education,recreation,hook-and-linefishing,castnets,spearfishing(non-SCUBAassisted)andothernon-destructivefishingmethodsincludingthosetraditionallyusedforsustenanceandculturalpurposessuchasgleaning,`enuandola.Ta’uIsland,partoftheManu’aIslandgroup,islocated70miles(112.65km.)eastofTutuilaand6.9milessoutheastofOlosega.TheTa’uManagementAreaisapproximately14.6squaremiles(37.81sq.km.)andincludesbothnearshoreanddeepwatersfromSi’ufa’alelePointsouthalongthewesterncoast,andincludesdeepwatersbeginning0.25miles(0.40km.)offshore,adjacenttothenearshorewatersoftheNationalParkofAmericanSamoa(NPSA),alongthesoutherncoastbetweenSi’ufa’alelePointandSi’uPoint.LocatedwithinthesanctuaryaremassivePoritescoralsinanareaknownas“ValleyoftheGiants.”ThisareaisalsohometowhatisbelievedtobepossiblytheoldestandlargestPoritescoralintheworld.Atover500

45

yearsofage,“BigMomma”liesatadepthof50feet(15.24m.),stands21feet(6.40m.)tall,42feet(12.80m.)wideandhasacircumferenceof135feet(41.15m.).Thisareahasbecomeanattractionforresearchersaswellasadestinationforthedevelopingdivetourismindustry(USDOCNOAAONMS2012).ThewesternsideofTa’u’ssoutherncoastisaregionalhotspotforcoralandfishdiversityandpossessesadistinctcoralcommunity.ThesanctuaryservesasadeepwaterbufferzoneforthemarineareasoftheNPSA,aswellasaddingnearshoreandreefprotectionaroundthePoritescoralheads(USDOCNOAAONMS2012).SwainsManagementAreaAllowed–research,education,recreation,hook-and-linefishing,castnets,spearfishing(non-SCUBAassisted)andothernon-destructivefishingmethodsincludingthosetraditionallyusedforsustenanceandculturalpurposessuchasgleaning,`enuandola.SwainsIslandisaprivatelyownedlow-lyingcoralatolllocatedabout200miles(321.87km.)northwestofTutuila.Itisapproximately1.5miles(2.41km.)indiameter,withapproximately1squaremile(2.59sq.km.)ofhighlyvegetatedsandandcoralwithamaximumelevationof6feet(1.83m.)abovesealevel.SwainsIslandhasahighamountofcoralcoverandmanydifferenttypesofcorals.CoraldiseaseislowatSwainsIsland.SwainsIslandischaracterizedbylargeschoolsofpredators,mostlybarracudas,jacksandsnappers.Overall,therearehighamountsoflargefisharoundSwainsIsland.Thissanctuaryareaincludes52.3squaremiles(135.46sq.km.)ofterritorialwaters(USDOCNOAAONMS2012).

46

OceanexplorerJean-MichelCousteauhasreferredtoSwainsIslandas“oneofthelastjewelsoftheplanet.”A2013expeditiontotheislandthatincludedoffshore,maritimearcheologyandterrestrialsurveysledtodiscoveriesthathaveexpertscallingSwainsamicrocosmofculturalinfluencesinthePacific.ThefindingsarenowavailablethroughtheNOAANationalMarineSanctuariespublication,“UnlockingthesecretsofSwainsIsland:aMaritimeHeritageResourcesSurvey”(VanTilburgetal2013).MuliāvaManagementAreaAllowed–research,education,recreation,andfishingwithapermit(seebelowforadditionalinformation).Muliāva,partoftheKingdomofManuˊa,meansendofthechannel.Culturally,thenameremainsareferencetotraditionalknowledgeoftheocean.Rose,thenameappropriateforthecolorofthecoralssurroundingRoseIsland,hasalsobeenreferredtoas“MotuoManu”orIslandofBirds(USDOCNOAAONMS2012).

47

TheRoseAtollMarineNationalMonumentwasestablishedin2009byPresidentialProclamation8337(74FR1577).In2012,thesanctuaryMuliāvamanagementareathatincludes13,507.8squaremiles(34,985.04sq.km.)ofmarinewaterswasoverlayedontothemonumenttobringincreasedprotections,regulations,researchandeducationandoutreachcapacity.AtMuliāva,thesanctuaryworkswiththeNOAANationalMarineFisheriesService,USFishandWildlifeServiceandtheAmericanSamoaGovernmentthroughanintergovernmentalcommitteeforthecoordinatedmanagementofthisincredibleplace.In2013,attherecommendationoftheWesternPacificRegionalFisheryManagementCouncil,NOAANationalMarineFisheriesServiceenactedadditionalregulationsthatprohibitedallfishingwithin12nauticalmiles(22.22km.)ofRoseIsland.Non-commercialfishingoutside12nauticalmiles(22.22km.)isprohibitedunlessauthorizedbyapermitthatallowsforsustenance,traditionalindigenousandrecreationalfishing(78FR32996).Roseisanappropriatenamefortheatollbecauseoftherose-coloredcrustosecorallinealgaethatdominatethearea.Roseislocatedapproximately150miles(241.40km.)eastofPagoPagoHarbor.ItistheeasternmostSamoanislandandthesouthernmostpointoftheUnitedStates.Oneofthesmallestatollsintheworld,Roseconsistsofabout.03squaremiles(.08sq.km.)oflandand2.5squaremiles(6.47sq.km.)oflagoonsurroundedbyanarrowbarrierreefthatareincludedinaUnitedStatesFishandWildlifeServiceNationalWildlifeRefuge(USDOCNOAAONMS2012).AtMuliāva,scientistshavechronicledadistinctenvironmentwithinthearchipelagowithlargenumbersoffishandauniquecoralcommunitythatincludesover270speciesofreeffish.Rosehasbeenreferredtoasahotspotforfishbiomassthatsupportsespeciallyhighdensitiesofsmallplanktivorousdamselfish(USDOCNOAAONMS2012).RoseAtollistheprimarysiteforgreenseaturtlenestinginAmericanSamoaandsupportsthehighestdensitiesofthegiantclamTridacnamaximaintheSamoanarchipelago.Morethan93percentoftheadultbroodstockofgiantclamsintheSamoanarchipelagoiswithinitsprotectedlagoon.AlthoughsimilarsuitablehabitatforthegiantclamexistselsewhereinAmericanSamoa,suchasonTutuilaandUpoluintheIndependentStateofSamoa,theseunprotectedpopulationshavebeenseverelydepleted.ElsewhereinthePacificIslands(Fiji),thegiantclamhasbeenharvestedtolocalextinction(USDOCNOAAONMS2012).ThesanctuaryareaalsoincludesthesubmergedvolcanicconeknownastheVailuluˊuSeamountthathasadiversebiologicalcommunitythatincludescrinoids,octocorals,sponges,andcutthroateels.Since2003,an1100foot(335.28m.)tallvolcaniccone,knownasNafanua,hasgrownintheseamount’scrater.ScientistsspeculatethatNafanuawillbreachtheseasurfacewithindecades,forminganewislandintheSamoanislandgroup.Theseamountconehasseveraltypesofhydrothermalventsthatprovidehabitatforanunusualgroupoforganisms,rangingfrommicrobialmatstopolychaeteworms.AthrivingpopulationoftheeelDysomminarugosaoccupiesthesummitofNafanua,survivingoncrustaceansimportedtothesystemfromthewatercolumnabove(USDOCNOAAONMS2012).

48

References:74FR1577:FederalRegister/Vol.74,No.7/Monday,January12,2009,page1577.PresidentialDocuments.Proclamation8337ofJanuary6,2009.EstablishmentoftheRoseAtollMarineNationalMonument.77FR43942:FederalRegister/Vol.77,No.144/Thursday,July26,2012/RulesandRegulations,page43942.DepartmentofCommerce.NationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministration.15CFRPart922.[DocketNo.100908440–2181–02].RIN0648–BA24.ExpansionofFagateleBayNationalMarineSanctuary,RegulatoryChanges,andSanctuaryNameChange;NoticeofEffectiveDate.Agency:OfficeofNationalMarineSanctuaries(ONMS),NationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministration(NOAA),DepartmentofCommerce(DOC).Action:FinalRule.77FR65815:FederalRegister/Vol.77,No.211/Wednesday,October31,2012/RulesandRegulations,page65815.DepartmentofCommerce.NationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministration.15CFRPart922.[DocketNo.070726412–1300–02].RIN0648–BA24.ExpansionofFagateleBayNationalMarineSanctuary,RegulatoryChanges,andSanctuaryNameChange;NoticeofEffectiveDate.Agency:OfficeofNationalMarineSanctuaries(ONMS),NationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministration(NOAA),DepartmentofCommerce(DOC).Action:Noticeofeffectivedate.78FR32996:FederalRegister/Vol.78,No.106/Monday,June3,2013/RulesandRegulations,page32996.DepartmentofCommerce.NationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministration.50CFRPart665.[DocketNo.110819515–3444–02].RIN0648–BA98.WesternPacificFisheries;FishingintheMarianasTrench,PacificRemoteIslands,andRoseAtollMarine.NationalMonuments.Agency:NationalMarineFisheriesService(NMFS),NationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministration(NOAA),Commerce.Action:Finalrule.U.S.DepartmentofCommerce(DOC).NationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministration(NOAA).OfficeofNationalMarineSanctuaries(ONMS).2012.FagateleBayNationalMarineSanctuaryFinalManagementPlan/FinalEnvironmentalImpactStatement.SilverSpring,MD.VanTilburg,H.K.,D.J.Herdrich,R.Suka,M.Lawrence,C.FilimoehalaandS.Gandulla.2013.UnlockingthesecretsofSwainsIsland:aMaritimeHeritageResourcesSurvey.NationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministration.OfficeofNationalMarineSanctuaries.MaritimeHeritageProgramSeries:Number6.

49

AppendixII:ListofAcronymsASEPA:AmericanSamoaEnvironmentalProtectionAgencyASCC:AmericanSamoaCommunityCollegeASG:AmericanSamoaGovernmentASPA:AmericanSamoaPowerAuthorityCRAG:CoralReefAdvisoryGroupCRCP:CoralReefConservationProgramCZMP:CoastalZoneManagementProgramDMWR:Dept.ofMarineandWildlifeResourcesDOC:DepartmentofCommerceDOE:DepartmentofEducationENSO:ElNinoSouthernOscillationEPA:EnvironmentalProtectionAgencyFWS:FishandWildlifeServiceIPO:Inter-decadalPacificOscillationMPA:MarineProtectedAreaNMFS:NationalMarineFisheriesServiceNMSAS:NationalMarineSanctuaryofAmericanSamoaNMSASAC:NationalMarineSanctuaryofAmericanSamoaAdvisoryCouncilNPSA:NationalParkServiceofAmericanSamoaNOAA:NationalOceanicAtmosphericAdministrationOCI:OfficeofCurriculumandInstructionONMS:OfficeofNationalMarineSanctuaryPDO:PacificDecadalOscillationPFCs:PerfluorinatedChemicalsPNRS:ProjectNotificationandReviewSystemSPREP:SecretariatofthePacificRegionalEnvironmentProgrammeUSGS:UnitedStateGeologicalSurveyWRRC:WaterResourcesResearchCenter

50

AppendixIII:ClimateImpactsSummaryTableClimateVariableandTrend

ObservedChange Trend RelativeChange

FutureProjections Confidence Uncertainty Source(s)

Airtemperature

SamoaFrom1950-2009:>Averageannualtemperaturesincreased+0.25°F(+0.14°C)perdecade>Averagemaximumairtemperaturesincreased+0.4°F(+0.22°C)perdecade>Averageminimumairtemperaturesincreased+0.07°F(+0.04°C)perdecade

é

High CentralSouthPacificAnnualsurfaceairtemperature(comparedto1971-2000)>By2030:+1.1-1.3°F(+0.61-0.72°C)>By2050:+1.9-2.5°F(+1.06-1.39°C)>By2090:+2.5-4.8°F(+1.39-2.67°C)PacificIslands>Extremeheatdayswillbecomemorefrequentandintenseduringthe21stcentury

>Highconfidenceintrenddirection>Mediumconfidenceintrendmagnitude

>Magnitudeofchangevariesbygreenhousegasemissionscenario:B1(lower)andA2(higher)

AustralianBureauofMeteorologyandCSIRO2011;Finucaneetal.2012;Young2007

Seasurfacetemperature

PacificIslands>Seasurfacetemperatureshaveincreasedregionallyatarateof0.13-0.41°F(+0.07-0.23°C)perdecadesince1970AmericanSamoaandSamoa>Itisdifficulttodeterminelong-termtrendsduetoregionalvariability>AmericanSamoahasexhibitedwarmingtrends(exactratesaren'tavailable)>Samoaexperiencedseasurfacewarmingatarateof+0.14°F(+0.08°C)perdecadefrom1970-2011

é High PacificIslandsSeasurfacetemperatures(comparedto1990,rangesrepresentlow[B1]andhigh[A2]emissionsscenarios)1>By2030:+1.1-1.7°F(+0.61-0.94°C)>By2055:+1.8-2.3°F(+1-1.28°C)>By2090:+2.5-4.7°F(+1.39-2.61°C)

>Highconfidenceintrenddirection>Mediumconfidenceintrendmagnitude

>Magnitudevariesbyemissionsscenario:B1(lower)andA2(higher)>ShiftsinseasurfacetemperaturewillalsobeaffectedbyENSO,thePDO,andtheIPO

AustralianBureauofMeteorologyandCSIRO2011;Keeneretal.2012;Young2007

51

ClimateVariableandTrend



ExtremePrecipitationEvents

CentralSouthPacific>Nosignificanttrendinthefrequencyofextremerainfalleventssince1965

éê

Moderate CentralSouthPacific>Extremerainfalleventswillbecorrelatedwithtropicalstormactivity(seebelow),butarelikelytoincreaseinfrequencyandintensityduringthe21stcentury

>Moderateconfidenceintrenddirection>Lowconfidenceintrendmagnitude

>Extremerainfallprojectionsarehighlyvariable,influencedbyENSO/PDOpatterns,andotherfactors.>Extremerainfalleventsthatcurrentlyoccuronceevery20yearsonaveragearegenerallysimulatedtooccurfourtimesperyear,onaverage,by2055.

AustralianBureauofMeteorologyandCSIRO2011;Keeneretal.2012;Young2007

Precipitationanddrought

AmericanSamoa>Nosignificanttrendsinannualprecipitationorwinterone-dayprecipitationvolumesince1965>Nochangeindroughteventfrequencyin60yearsSamoa>Nosignificanttrendsinseasonalorannualrainfallfrom1950-2009orfrom1890-2005

éê

Low CentralSouthPacific>Projectionsarehighlyvariableanddisplayconflictingresults>Futureconditionsmayincludenochangeoraslightincreaseinmeanannualprecipitationwithslightdecreasesduringthedryseasonandslightincreasesduringthewetseasonduringthe21stcenturySamoa>Droughtfrequencyisn'tlikelytoexhibitmajorchangeduringthe21stcentury

>Lowconfidenceintrenddirectionandmagnitude

>PrecipitationprojectionsforthePacificRegionarehighlyvariabledependingonemissionsscenarioandareinfluencedbymanyfactors(e.g.,ENSO/PDO/IPOphases,islandlocationand

AustralianBureauofMeteorologyandCSIRO2011;ChengandGaskin2011;Keeneretal.2012;Young2007

52




>Nochangeindroughtfrequencyfrom1942-2005,buteventsarecorrelatedwithElNinoconditions

geography).>Thereisverylittlelong-termannualprecipitationdataforAmericanSamoatoderivetrendsandinformprojections.

Tropicalstorms

CentralSouthPacific>Thenumberoftropicalstormsescalatingtocyclonesincreasedin1991-2010relativeto1970-1990.

é Low AmericanSamoaandSamoa>PotentialreductionincycloneactivityasstormtracksshifttowardtheCentralNorthPacificPacificIslands>Increasedstormintensityoverthenext70years


>TropicalstormtrackswillbeinfluencedbyregionalvariabilityrelatedtoENSO,thePDO,andtheIPO>Theregionexhibitshighinter-annualvariabilityinstormactivity

AustralianBureauofMeteorologyandCSIRO2011;Emanuel2005;Lietal.2010;Seneviratneetal.2012;Yuetal.2010

Streamflow AmericanSamoa>Notrendintotalstreamflow,baseflow,orthenumberofextremelow-orhigh-flowdaysfrom1960-1995

Notrend

Low AmericanSamoa>Nospecificprojections,butstreamflowwilllikelyfluctuatewithprecipitationpatterns


>Thereisverylittlelong-termdataforAmericanSamoatoderivetrendsandinformprojections.>ManystreamsinAmericanSamoaexperience

Keeneretal.2012

53




humanmodificationstostreamflow.

Sealevelrise Global>Globalsealevelsincreased3.4mm(+/-0.4mm)peryearfrom1993-2009,representingamuchfasterrateofrisethanthe20thcenturyWesternTropicalPacific>Relativeratesofsealevelrisematchedorexceededglobalratesfrom1993-2010duetoenhancedtradewindconditionsAmericanSamoa>Meansealevelincreased2.07mm/yearatPagoPagofrom1948-2006

é High PacificIslandsRegionwillexperienceroughlysamemeanaveragesealevelriseasglobaltrends.>By2100:-"Low"scenario:0.2m-"Intermediate-Low"scenario:0.5m-"Intermediate-High"scenario:1.2m-"High"scenario:2.0m>Increasedfrequencyofextremesealevelevents(linkedwithhightideevents)

>Highconfidenceintrenddirection>Lowconfidenceintrendmagnitude

>Magnitudeprojectionsvarybasedonmodelused(climatemodelvs.semi-empiricalmodel)andemissionsscenario.Additionally,sealevelrisecouldaccelerateifice-sheetdischargeincreases,whichislikelygivencurrenttrends.>Regionalvariationsinsealevelriselikelyduetolanddynamics(subsidence/uplift)andchangesinoceancirculation(ENSO/PDO)andwindpatterns.

ChengandGaskin2011;Marraetal.2012;Neremetal.2010

54




Waveheight PacificIslands>Notrendinwaveheightsavailable

é Low PacificIslands>IncreasedannualmeanwaveheightinthesoutherntropicalPacific,decreasedwaveheightsinmostotherPacificareas

Fewlong-termrecordsexist

Hemeretal.2013;Marraetal.2012;Seneviratneetal.2012;Youngetal.2011

Oceanacidification

Samoa>Aragonitesaturationstatedeclinedfrom4.5to4.1betweenthe18thcenturyand2000

ê High Samoa>By2060:aragonitesaturationstatewillfallbelow3.5,andcontinuedecliningthereafter

>Highconfidenceintrenddirection>Moderateconfidenceintrendmagnitude

>Carboncyclesaredifficulttomodel,andregionalbiasesanddownscalingchallengesexistincurrentmodels

AustralianBureauofMeteorologyandCSIRO2011

55

AppendixIV:CurrentandFutureAdaptationStrategiesTables

Table1.Currentmanagementgoals,potentialvulnerabilities,andcurrentmanagementactionsforcoralreefs.Foreachcurrentmanagementactionparticipantsevaluateditseffectiveness(likelytoreduceclimatevulnerability)andfeasibility(likelihoodofimplementation),andidentifiedclimaticandnon-climaticstressorstheactioncouldhelptoamelioratetheeffectsof.Givenactioneffectivenessandfeasibility,participantsthenevaluatedwhetherornottheactionshouldcontinuetobeimplemented.Iftheactionwasrecommendedforcontinuedimplementation,participantsdetailedanychangesregardingwhereandhowtoimplementgivenclimatevulnerabilities.Lastly,participantsevaluatedwhethertherewerepotentialconflictswithorbenefitstootherresourcesfromactionimplementation.

CurrentManagementGoal:Protectcoralreefhabitat.Potentialvulnerabilities:• Increasedseasurfacetemperature• Oceanacidification• Changesinhighprecipitationevents:increasednitrification

CurrentManagementActionCurrent

EffectivenessCurrent

Feasibility

DoesActionAmeliorate

EffectsofAnyVulnerabilities?

ContinuetoImplementActionGiven

ClimateVulnerabilities?

Where/HowtoImplementGiven

ClimateVulnerabilities

OtherResourceConsiderations

Waterqualitytestingforbacteriaandnearshorenutrientinput,sometimesresultinginbeachclosures.

Moderate High Servesasanindicatorfor

possibleimpactstocoralreef

habitat

Yes Where:AreassusceptibletobleachingorcurrentlybleachedareasHow:- Implementvisibility/lightpenetrationmeasurementsinandoutsidereefslopesduringhighprecipitationeventsandpoorwater

Otherresourcesactionbenefits:BetterunderstandingofwaterqualitypulsesaroundcoralreefhabitatsOtherresourceswithpotentialconflicts:None

56

qualitymeasurementperiods

- Morestudiestounderstandwhatismakingit’swayintothebay(e.g.,whatmedicinesandtracersarefoundinnearshorewater)

Reducelitterandmarinedebris.

Moderate Moderate/High(ifenforced)

Yes Yes,andfullyenforce

Where:Territory-wideHow:Ensureisland-wideenforcementofregulationsagainstlittering

Otherresourcesactionbenefits:- Waterquality- Seaturtles(reducesplastics)

- Seabirds- CoralhabitatsOtherresourceswithpotentialconflicts:None

AmericanSamoaVillageMarineProtectedAreas(MPAs):co-managedbycommunitiesandlocalgovernment(DepartmentofMarineandWildlifeResources),includesNo-TakeMPAsandCommunity-BasedFisheriesManagementPrograms.EachoftheseMPAshasdifferent

Low

Somevillagesaredependentoncoral

reeffishforsubsistenceand

MPAeffectivenesshasnotbeen

proven

Vulnerabilitycould

High(bypermit)

Dependsonwillingnessof

villagestoenactandenforce

Yes,increasescoralreefhabitat

resiliencebymaintainingherbivorefishpopulations,

whicharegoodforcorals

Yes,sinceMPAshelplocallyprotect

herbivorereeffish,butshouldconsidermoreevaluationsofeffectiveness

Where:Inthe11VillageMPAsHow:- Ensurethatopeningsdonothappenduringhighstressconditionsandcoralbleachingeventstoallowforreefrecovery

Otherresourcesactionbenefits:Allreef-dependentspeciesOtherresourceswithpotentialconflicts:Subsistenceandculturalfisheriespractices

57

opening/closuretimesandlengths.

beveryhighifMPAopeningscoincidewithhighstressconditions(e.g.,highseasurfacetemperature

periods,bleachingevents)

- IncorporateamonitoringcomponenttoevaluateMPAeffectiveness

NodischargeandanchoringintheSanctuary

Moderate/High

EnforcementactionbyNOAAFisheries

OfficeofLawEnforcementand

DMWREnforcementthroughJointEnforcementAgreement.Effectivewith

properresourcesandifmore

mooringbuoysareinstalled.

Moderate Yes,helpswaterqualityandcoralreefhabitatifenforced

Yes,withpossible

expansioninotherareas

Where:Coralreefareas,particularlyinareasthataremorepronetobleachingorotherstressors(e.g.,crown-of-thornsstarfish)How:Requirenodischarge/noanchoringinotherareasbeyondtheSanctuary

Otherresourcesactionbenefits:Allreefdependentspecies.Otherresourceswithpotentialconflicts:None

CurrentManagementGoal:Controlcrown-of-thornsstarfishoutbreaks.Potentialvulnerabilities:• Temperaturechanges–unknownhowcrown-of-thornsstarfishwillrespond• TemperatureandpH–ifthesefactorscausedecreasedcorals,theremaylessoutbreaks• Nutrientinput–mayaffectcrown-of-thornsstarfishlarvae

58



Feasibility








Targetcrown-of-thornsstarfisheradicationwithoxbile

High

Oxbileveryefficientsinceitrequiresonlyasingleinjection,andstarfishfallsapartin24hours.Hasbeenvery

effectiveonNorthTutuila.Requiresdedicatedteamof

divers.

Low/Moderate

Veryexpensive,andrequireslargeteamtoremoveallstarfish.Towboardsurveysareverytimeconsuming.Resource

intensiveandrequireslotsofinfrastructure.

Indirectly;leavesmoreviablecoral

populationstorepopulate/recoverfromotherstressors

Yes Where:- NPSAsurveyathotspots(previouseffortsconcentratedinTutuilaandnorthsideofislandtokeepcrown-of-thornsstarfishoutofthepark;verylittleknownaboutwhathappensonsouthshoreofTutuila,Aunu’u,andSwains,butlikelyoutbreaksherehavegoneunchecked)

- Deepreefs–mayberefugeforcrown-of-thornsstarfish,needtolearnmore,butcanbeexpensive,timeconsuming,anddangeroustoexplore–OfficeofNationalMarineSanctuariesre-breatherdiversperiodicallysurveyaroundTutuilaand

Otherresourcesactionbenefits:Savingcoralsfromcrown-of-thornsstarfishpreservesfishhabitatOtherresourceswithpotentialconflicts:- Diversmaydamage/breakcorals

- Publictrustmaybeunderminedifactions/theorynotcommunicatedproperly

59

Aunu’uandwillbeconductingdeepwatersurveysin2017

How:- Obtainpermissionfrom/cooperatewithlocalvillagesforwaterandreefaccess

- Trainvolunteerstodistinguishbetweencrown-of-thornsstarfishscarsversusbleaching/diseaseimpactstoinformbiologists/responseteams

Manualeradicationofcrown-ofthornsstarfish(spearorbash)

Low/Moderate

Removaliseffectiveatsmall

scale,butverytimeconsuming.

Starfishcan

regenerate–mustberemovedfromwatertoensure

death.

Moredangerous/

Low

Timeconsumingandexpensive



Yes,butsomeconcernsaboutstarfish’sabilitytoreplicate/regenerate

Where:- Deeperreefswherecrown-of-thornsstarfishmayfindrefuge

- SouthshoreofTutuila,Aunu’u,andSwains(littleknownaboutwhat’shappeningthere)

- Usefulmethodforlocalvillagemanagement,butnotforlargescale

How:

Otherresourcesactionbenefits:Savingcoralsfromcrown-of-thornspreservesfishhabitatOtherresourceswithpotentialconflicts:Diversmaydamage/breakcorals

60

increaseddiverriskwithmorehandlingduetovenomous

spines.

- Trainspearfisherstoeradicatelocalpopulations(possiblycheaper)

- Obtainpermissionfrom/cooperatewithlocalvillagesforwaterandreefaccess

- Trainvolunteerstodistinguishbetweencrown-of-thornsstarfishscarsversusbleaching/diseaseimpactstoinformbiologists/responseteams

Bantakeoflargereeffish(e.g.,humpheadwrasse),whicharebelievedtobecrown-of-thornsstarfishpredators

Low/Unknown

Notknownwhichfishmayeatyoungcrown-of-thorns

starfish,needmoreinformation.

Low/Unknown

Needmoreinformationonwhichreeffishtoprotect;need

toidentifyeffectivepredator.

Scalealsoan

issue;50,000+crown-

of-thornsindividualspresent.



Yes,butneedmoreinfo

Where:Unknown;potentialfuturemanagementactiononceresearchisunderwayHow:Researchandidentifycrown-of-thornsstarfishpredatorsandeffectivenessofpredationonstarfishpopulations

Otherresourcesactionbenefits:Couldhelplargefishpopulationsrecover(e.g.,humpheadwrasse)andeventuallyallowthesespeciestobefishedinthefutureOtherresourceswithpotentialconflicts:None

61

CurrentManagementGoal:Useeducationandoutreachtoprotectcoralreefsandbringthesitetothepeople.Potentialvulnerabilities:• Mostclimatechangeswillimpactcorals• Sedimentation• Reducedfundsforeducationandoutreach



Feasibility








SchoolprogramssuchasReefCheck(gearedtowardanyaudience;provideseducationoncoralfragilityandimportanceofcoralhabitatsoaudiencecanbecomeenvironmentalstewards)

Moderate/High

Spacelimited,requiresalotof

stafftime

Low/Moderate

Spacelimited

Yes,helpsimprove

understandingandsupportforreefprotectionandactiontoincreasereefresilience

Yes Where:Territory-wideHow:- Mergeandconsolidatefederalandlocalprogramstoreachmorepeople

- CombineSanctuaryknowledgewithlocalknowledge;uselocalgovernmentstohelpbridgeconnectionsterritory-wide

Otherresourcesactionbenefits:Allreef-dependentspeciesOtherresourceswithpotentialconflicts:None

Haveseveraleducationprogramscateredtodifferentagegroupsthatlinksconnectionsbetweenlandandsea- Currentlyworkingon

Moderate/High

Low/Moderate

Spaceislimited

Yes,helpsimprove

understandingandsupportforreefprotectionandactionto

Yes Where:- Alllocalschools- BeyondAmericanSamoa(virtually)

Otherresourcesactionbenefits:Allreef-dependentspecies

62

schoolcurriculumlessons- SanctuarySummer

ScienceintheVillageprograms:haveschoolkidsvisitoceancenterortakeeco-tourstolearnbasicscienceandcomplementlessonslearnedduringschoolyear

- Teachertrainings

increasereefresilience

How:- Mergeandconsolidatefederalandlocalprogramstoreachmorepeople

Otherresourceswithpotentialconflicts:None

Virtualexperienceforstudents,allowingthemtoseechanges,includingclimatechangeimpactswithspecialgoggles.- “ScienceoftheSphere”–

has3000datasets,includingclimatechangetopics

Moderate/High

Visualizationisapowerfultool

Low/Moderate

Spaceislimited

Yes,helpsimprove

understandingandsupportforreefprotectionandactiontoincreasereefresilience

Yes Where:OceanCenterHow:Uselocalclimatedataandmakedatamoreavailableforsharing

Otherresourcesactionbenefits:Allreef-dependentspeciesOtherresourceswithpotentialconflicts:None

63

Table2.Potentialfuturemanagementgoals,adaptationactions,andactionimplementationdetailsincludingwhereandhowtoimplementandcollaborationandcapacityneedsforcoralreefs.Actioneffectiveness(likelihoodofreducingvulnerability),feasibility(likelihoodofimplementation),andtimeframe(near:<5years;mid:5-15years;long:>15years)werealsoevaluatedforeachadaptationaction.

FutureManagementGoal:Decreasenutrientinputandsedimentationintocoastalwaters.

Adaptationaction Effectiveness Feasibility Timeframe Implementation(where/how) Collaboration&CapacityEnsurepiggerycomplianceandenforceEPAregulations

Low/Moderate

Initiativeisalreadyinplace,needsregulatorycompliance

High

Needtofollowthrough;augmentthroughvillage

structure,lookat

healthangles

Near/Mid

EPAdependent,needsmoreenforcement

Where:Island-wide:smallpiggeries,family-basedpiggeries,communitypiggerieslikecommunitygardens(althoughcommunitypiggeriesmaycauseconflict–diseasespreading;maybeworkinsmallervillages)How:- Subcontractorfundingtohelpimplement

- Publiccampaign/outreach

Collaboration:EPA;VillagesdetermineiffamilyorcommunitypiggeriesInternal:Capacityneeded:Fundingforpubliccampaigns

Supportsewerexpansionsandnewwastewatertreatmentplants;supportproperseptictankinstallmentinproperlocations;removeexistingcesspools

High

High

Near/Mid

Long-Newwastewatertreatment

Where:Coastalareacommunitysepticsystems;leaseforthevillagesepticsystemHow:- Workwithlandowners;cesspoolremovalmayhavepropertyrightsissues

Collaboration:- External:EPA,ASPACapacityneeded:- New,updatedinventoryofexistingcesspools

- Funding(millions)fornewcentralwastewaterandcontinuedremoval

64

Plantmoretrees/plantsincoastalareasandinvillagestoreducerunoff.Plantvetivergrassbystreamsalongwithnativetrees.Ensurenewconstructionprojectsaresetbackawayfromstreamstopreventerosion.

High(coastal)

Needtolookathighlyresistantcoastalplants

Low(upstream)

High(coastal)

Low(upstream)

Near,aslongasthereis

interestinvillagesandcommunity-basedgroups

Where:CommunityvillagesHow:- Workwithvillages–provideincentivesthroughvillagesandothervolunteerprograms

Collaboration:- External:EPA,Villagemayororpastor

- Internal:Communityoutreach

Capacityneeded:Publicoutreachandeducation

Ensurecomplianceofcoastaldevelopmentsetbacks- Enforce200ft(60.96m)

forcoastaldevelopment,25ft(7.62m)fromwetland,50ft(15.24m)forcommercialdevelopment

- Increasesetbacksandadda25ft(7.62m)bufferfromstreams

Moderate/High

Low

Needsenforcement

Near/Mid,ifthereisa

will

Where:Streams,wetlands,coastalareasHow:Developamendments

Collaboration:- External:EPA,villages,communities,ASAP

- Internal:CoastalZoneManagement

Capacityneeded:- Enforcement- Outreach- Funding

Startawetlandsrestorationproject

High

Restorationplan

ModeratePlant

mortalitycanbeanissue

(e.g.,CoconutPoint)

Near Where:CoconutPoint,Leone,Masefau,VatiaHow:Monitorforsuccess

Collaboration:- External:EPA,DMWR,schoolgroups

- Internal:CoastalZoneManagement

Capacityneeded:Moreresearchtoinformsuccess

65

Increaselawenforcementandfinesforanyviolations(wetlands)

Low

Damagehasbeendone,butthereareopportunitiesfor

improvementinthefuture

Moderate/High

Near Where:Island-wideHow:Increaseenforcement

Collaboration:- External:EPA,villages,ASPA

- Internal:ASPACapacityneeded:Moreresearchtoinformsuccess

Education/outreachonstrengtheningvillagelaws–strengthenvillagecouncilswhilerespectingdifferentlawsofeachvillage- Villageanti-litterlaws:

enforcementforgarbageandfishing,haveissuedfinesinpast

- Gatherevidence

High(education) Moderate Near Where:Island-wideHow:Workwithvillagesandvillagecouncils

Collaboration:- External:EPA,villages,ASPA

- Internal:VillagesCapacityneeded:- Funding- Staff

Continuestormwaterbestmanagementpracticesinitiative- Requirethatnew

developmenthaspermeableareasandraingardens

High,ifsuccessfullyimplemented

Moderate(targetingstormwateroutfalls)

Near Where:Island-wideHow:Moreeducationingarbageremovalindrainsnotfilledbydirt

Collaboration:- External:EPA,USGS,ASPA

- Internal:DepartmentofPublicWorks,ASPA

Capacityneeded:Funding

66

Removeallwastewateroutfalls;upgraderawsewagedischargestosecondarytreatment

High,ifsuccessfullyimplemented

Moderate Near Where:WhereexistingoutfallsarefoundAunu’uHow:Removeoutfalls

Collaboration:- External:EPA,ASPA- Internal:DepartmentofPublicWorks,ASPA

Capacityneeded:Funding

FutureManagementGoal:Coolingforbleachingpreventionandreduction.

AdaptationAction Effectiveness Feasibility Timeframe Implementation(where/how) Collaboration&CapacityMovedeeper,coolerwatertoshallow,warmerareas–pipedowntocoldwater,pumpup,andpipetodistribute

High,butneedtomakesureit’sstableincaseof

cyclones

Low,basedoncasestudyfromHawaiʻiandGreatBarrierReef

Long Where:Hotspotbytheairport,wherethereisahightemperaturechangeandsurfacetemperature.Thissiteisfavorableduetothermaldynamicsandbecauseitisclosetoshore,buttherehasn’tbeenafeasibilitystudyforthissite.ASPAlookingatmainstreamrenewablewindandsolar.How:- Pipes/infrastructureforthermalcooling

- Permittingandinfrastructure- ExaminelessonslearnedfromHawaiʻiandGreatBarrierReef

Collaboration:- External:engineering,AmericanSamoaRenewableEnergyCommittee,OceanThermalEnergyConversiontechnology

- Internal:ASPA,DMWR

Capacityneeded:- Funding(expensive)

67

FutureManagementGoal:Developresilientmarineprotectedareas(MPAs)–designfutureMPAsinareasthatareclimateresilientandeffectiveformultiplespecies(considernetworkofMPAs).

AdaptationAction Effectiveness Feasibility Timeframe Implementation(where/how) Collaboration&Capacity- DoaGAPSanalysison

whatisalreadyinplaceandwhatisworkingtoidentifypriorityareasforprotectionandwhatchanges/additionsareneeded

- Exploredevelopingland-connectedMPAsandincludehabitatprotectionforallspecies(e.g.,seabirds,seaturtles)

Moderate/High

Moderate Long(ongoing)

Where:- Westsidereefs,somebaysontheNorthside

- MPAwithnotaketohelpherbivorefish/locateinareaswithgoodwaterquality

- LookatMPAsofcontiguouscoralreefthathasdonewellhistorically;lookatareasthatdowellaftercoralreefs

How:- PromoteandincreasecommunityacceptanceofnewMPAs,whichmaytakealongtime;instillvaluesofhabitatimportance

- Shiftfromfishing-basedMPAs(meanttorebuildfishstocks)toecosystem-basedMPAsandcoralreef-focusedMPAs

Collaboration:- External:federal,local,andterritory

- Internal:Contractor/DMWR,CRAG/Parksrefuge

Capacityneeded:- Funding- Staff- Publicsupport

FutureManagementGoal:Assembleacoralreefdatabaseanddevelopadatasharingmethodformanagementanddecisionsupport.

AdaptationAction Effectiveness Feasibility Timeframe Implementation(where/how) Collaboration&CapacityDevelopaneasyexchangeandaccessibilityofinformationtoallowmanagerstoassesschangesovertime

Moderate/High

High(isavailable)

Near Where:- AmericanSamoaCoralReefDATABASE(federaldataarchive)

- Localsurveydata- MarineProtectedAreas

Collaboration:- External:NOAACoralReefEcosystemDivision,universities,datasharingplans

68

- Currently,notallprojectshaveonedataaccesspointinAmericanSamoa;wouldbegoodtohaveacentralizeddataaccesspointforinformationsharing

How:Makesuredataarebeingmadeavailabletoall

- Internal:DMWR/NationalParkService

Capacityneeded:Keypersonnelineachagencythatisresponsibleforsharing

FutureManagementGoal:Usecoralnurserygardensforrestoration.Targetnurseriesofbleachingresistantstrands.Makesuretohavecontrolsites.

AdaptationAction Effectiveness Feasibility Timeframe Implementation(where/how) Collaboration&CapacitySelectcoralthatdoesnotbleach(includinghistoricbleaching).- TestAcroporaformosa(Staghorn)incoralheattanksbeforetransplanting

- Needtolookatallphysicalparameters

High(ifwaterqualityis

good)

High(atlocalizedscale;largerscalewouldrequiremorefunding)

Near(moresites,

moreinvolvement

frommultiplepeople)

Where:Selectsiteswherewaterqualityisgoodandotherdisturbancesarelow.PagoPagoisnotagoodarea(disturbedduetodredging).How:- Surveytoidentifycoralsthatarenotbleaching

- Teachvolunteerstopropagate- UseresilientcoralsfromAlafau,Alofau,Anouli,andOfu;takemultiplecoloniesforvariation

Collaboration:- External:Universities(Stanford,OldDominion,UniversityofHawaiʹi)

- Internal:DMWR/NationalParkService

Capacityneeded:- Volunteers–teachthemhowtopropagate

- ASCCMarineScienceProgram

- Funding

69

Table3.Currentmanagementgoals,potentialvulnerabilities,andcurrentmanagementactionsformangrovesandPalaLagoon.Foreachcurrentmanagementactionparticipantsevaluateditseffectiveness(likelytoreduceclimatevulnerability)andfeasibility(likelihoodofimplementation),andidentifiedclimaticandnon-climaticstressorstheactioncouldhelptoamelioratetheeffectsof.Givenactioneffectivenessandfeasibility,participantsthenevaluatedwhetherornottheactionshouldcontinuetobeimplemented.Iftheactionwasrecommendedforcontinuedimplementation,participantsdetailedanychangesregardingwhereandhowtoimplementgivenclimatevulnerabilities.Lastly,participantsevaluatedwhethertherewerepotentialconflictswithorbenefitstootherresourcesfromactionimplementation.

CurrentManagementGoal:Controlresidential/commercialdevelopmentnearmangrovestoprotectmangrovehabitat.Potentialvulnerabilities:• Sealevelrise(causesmangrovedamageormortality)• Storms(causesmangrovedamageormortality)

CurrentManagementAction

CurrentEffectiveness

CurrentFeasibility





Where/HowtoImplementGivenClimateVulnerabilities


Preventbuildingovermangrovesthroughpermittingprocess(ProjectNotificationandReviewSystem–PRNS)

Moderate Low-Moderate

(enforcement)

Reduceseffectsoferosionandstormevents

Yes Where:VillageswithshorelineownershipHow:- Increasetrainingonimportanceofmangroves

- Increaseknowledgeofpermittingprocess

- Increasesetbacksandbuffersbehindmangrovesandintegrateintopermittingprocess–currentsetbacksare~25-50ft(7.62-15.24m).Isthissufficientundersealevelrisescenarios?Shoulditbeincreased?

Otherresourcesactionbenefits:Healthymangrovesprovidefishhabitatandde-nitrificationbenefits.Alsobenefitscrabsandreefs.Otherresourceswithpotentialconflicts:Complicationsascoastallandownersareprimarilyvillagesbutpermittingisbyagencies.

70

Table4.Potentialfuturemanagementgoals,adaptationactions,andactionimplementationdetailsincludingwhereandhowtoimplementandcollaborationandcapacityneedsformangrovesandPalaLagoon.Actioneffectiveness(likelihoodofreducingvulnerability),feasibility(likelihoodofimplementation),andtimeframe(near:<5years;mid:5-15years;long:>15years)werealsoevaluatedforeachadaptationaction.

FutureManagementGoal:Reducenon-climatestressorssuchasdebrisfromstreamsthatdestroy/smothermangrovehabitat.

Adaptationaction Effectiveness Feasibility Timeframe Implementation(where/how) Collaboration&CapacityRemovedebrisfrommangrovehabitats

Moderate Moderate Near Where:HighprioritywatershedsandmangrovehabitatssuchasthoseinPala,Leone,andVatiaHow:Engagevolunteersandvillageresidents

Collaboration:AmericanSamoaPowerAuthority,LeTausagigroup(educationcoordinatorsfromdifferentagencies),villagers,AmericanSamoaCoastalManagementProgram(leadcoordinatorofPermitNotificationandReviewSystem),DMWR,Governor’soffice,ASEPACapacityneeded:Peopleontheground–volunteers,staff

Educatepeopleontheeffectofdebrisonmangrovesandenforcebanondebristhrownoutupstream

High Moderate Near Where:HighprioritywatershedsandmangrovehabitatssuchasthoseinPala,Leone,andVatiaHow:Engagevolunteersandvillageresidents

Collaboration:AmericanSamoaPowerAuthority,LeTausagigroup(educationcoordinatorsfromdifferentagencies),villagers,AmericanSamoaCoastalManagementProgram(leadcoordinatorofPermitNotificationandReviewSystem),DMWR,Governor’soffice,ASEPACapacityneeded:Funding,policychangestocreatestricterregulationsondebris

Increaseuseofstreamcatchmentstocatchdebris

High High Near Where:HighprioritywatershedsandmangrovehabitatssuchasthoseinPala,Leone,andVatia

Collaboration:AmericanSamoaPowerAuthority,LeTausagigroup(educationcoordinatorsfromdifferentagencies),villagers,AmericanSamoaCoastalManagementProgram(leadcoordinatorof

71

How:Identifyareasmostsuitableforplacementofcatchments

PermitNotificationandReviewSystem),DMWR,Governor’soffice,ASEPACapacityneeded:Mayneedpermitsforplacementsofcatchments,funding,permissionfromlandownersforplacement

FutureManagementGoal:Increasepublicknowledgeofimportanceofmangrovesandincreaselocalenforcement.

Adaptationaction Effectiveness Feasibility Timeframe Implementation(where/how) Collaboration&CapacityCreatemangroveeducationandoutreachcampaigntoincreaseunderstandingofmangrovesandunderstandingofexistingguidelinesinpoliciesthatprotectmangroves

Moderate High Near Where:AllareasHow:- Radio- Schoolcurriculum- Cheap/localTVprograms(KVCK)- Newspapers

Collaboration:DMWR,EPA,CZMP(allhaveowneducationprograms),LeTausagigroupCapacityneeded:Funding

Createtargetedvillageeducationandoutreachcampaigntoincreaselikelihoodofregulationenforcement

Moderate/High

High Near Where:VillagesHow:OfficeofSamoanAffairs

Collaboration:VillagechiefsCapacityneeded:Funding

72

Table5.Currentmanagementgoals,potentialvulnerabilities,andcurrentmanagementactionsforwaterquality.Foreachcurrentmanagementactionparticipantsevaluateditseffectiveness(likelytoreduceclimatevulnerability)andfeasibility(likelihoodofimplementation),andidentifiedclimaticandnon-climaticstressorstheactioncouldhelptoamelioratetheeffectsof.Givenactioneffectivenessandfeasibility,participantsthenevaluatedwhetherornottheactionshouldcontinuetobeimplemented.Iftheactionwasrecommendedforcontinuedimplementation,participantsdetailedanychangesregardingwhereandhowtoimplementgivenclimatevulnerabilities.Lastly,participantsevaluatedwhethertherewerepotentialconflictswithorbenefitstootherresourcesfromactionimplementation.

CurrentManagementGoal:Improvewaterquality.Potentialvulnerabilities:• Heavierrainevents–increasedinflowtosewagelinesandwatervolumeneedingtreatment,increasedgroundwaterinfiltration,increasedsedimentand

debrisrunoff• Increasednumberofstorms/increasedstormstrength–increaseddamagetoinfrastructure,increasedTamaligitreetoppling• Increasedcostofelectricity• Saltwaterintrusionduetorisinggroundwater• Sealevelrise–increaseddamagetoinfrastructure,groundwaterimpacts

CurrentManagement

ActionCurrent


Feasibility





Where/HowtoImplementGivenClimateVulnerabilities


Improvesewageeffluentqualityandsewagetreatment- UVlights- Fixleakingpipes

High(UVeliminationofpathogens)

Moderate(decreasedeffluent

volumebyreducingleaks)

Low(managing

nutrients,pharmaand

High(UV)

Moderate(decreasedleaks–

replacingpipes,ASPAoffersfreesepticpumpingaspartof

groundwaterprotection

recoveryfee)

- PathogensremovedbyUVlight

- Reducingleaksmoderatelydecreaseseffluentreleasedintogroundwaterandsurfacewater.

- Newdiffuserhelpsspread

UV–yes

Decreaseleaks–yes

Newdiffuser–yes

Where:- Low-lyingcommunities- System-wide- Treatmentplantsandpowerplantsmayneedtobemoved

How:- Movetreatmentplantsincommunities

- Createleak-proofsystem- Increaserenewablesandenergyefficiency

Otherresourcesactionbenefits:- Decreasedpathogensandnutrientsbenefitsmanyresources

- Leakproofingdecreasescostsandimprovespublichealth

Otherresourceswithpotentialconflicts:- Limitedmoneyandland

73

fluorocarbons) Low

(pharmaandfluorocarbons)

effluentandreducesnutrientconcentrations

- Increasedenergyconsumptionwouldincreasecost(needtospeeduprenewableenergy)

Improvegroundwaterquality- Fixleakingpipes- Sealcesspoolsandconverttoseptic

- Oilcollection- Pesticidecontrol- Identifyresilientaquifers

- Microfiltrationplants

High(pipes,

cesspool)

Moderate(oil–highforallwhouseit)

Moderate

(pesticides–highiffarmers

comply)Aquifersare

resilient;higherelevationandmicrofilterswouldaddto

capacity

Moderate(cesspoolconversionrequires

managementbyfamiliestoworkoverlong

term)

Protect/improvegroundwater

quality

Yes Where:- Farms(pesticides)- Low-lyingcommunitiesHow:- Movelow-lyingsepticsystems

- Monitorbecausesealevelrisemaydecreaseaquifervolume

- Create/enforcesoilandpesticideprotocolsthroughoutwatersheds

Otherresourcesactionbenefits:- Increasedwaterqualityandquantity

- Increasedwatershedhabitat

Otherresourceswithpotentialconflicts:- Limitedmoneyandland

Improvesurfaceandstormwaterquality- Netsatstreammouthstocatchdebris

- Raingardens/soakbeds

- Tamaligitreeremoval

- PNRSsedimentrequirement

Moderate(nets)

High(rain

gardens/soakpits–ifplacedcorrectlyandin

sufficientnumbers)

Low

High(nets–if

there’sawill,butreallyneedtostopdebris)

Low

(raingardens/soakpits)

Capturesedimentanddebrisrunoff

Yes Where:BystreamsHow:Placenetsatstreammouths

Otherresourcesactionbenefits:Debris/sedimentcapturebenefitscoralreefsandnearshorehabitats/speciesOtherresourceswithpotentialconflicts:Noanswerprovidedbyparticipants

74

Table6.Potentialfuturemanagementgoals,adaptationactions,andactionimplementationdetailsincludingwhereandhowtoimplementandcollaborationandcapacityneedsforwaterquality.Actioneffectiveness(likelihoodofreducingvulnerability),feasibility(likelihoodofimplementation),andtimeframe(near:<5years;mid:5-15years;long:>15years)werealsoevaluatedforeachadaptationaction.

FutureManagementGoal:Developandinstillasenseofresponsibilityinprotectingwatershedsanddisposingofwasteandtrashappropriately.

Adaptationaction Effectiveness Feasibility Timeframe Implementation(where/how) Collaboration&CapacityIncreasepubliceducationandoutreach

High High Near(1-2years)

Where:- ProjectNotificationandReviewSystem(PNRS):publicworksenforcementofbuildingcodes

- AgencycollaborationwithvillagesHow:- Issueticketsandfines

Collaboration:ASPA,ASEPA,PNRS,ASDOE,PublicWorks,OfficeofSamoanAffairs,NationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministration,ParksandRecreation,FWS,WRRC,UniversityofHawaiʻi,SeaGrant,DOCCapacityneeded:- Funding- Policychange- Increasedpoliticalcooperationandwill

Enforceanti-litteringlaw

High High Near

Implementandenforceenvironmentaldisposalfeetoassistwithfunding

High High Near

Findalternativestopollutantswedon’thavethecapacitytodisposeandtreat(e.g.,PFCs)

High High Near

75

Table7.Currentmanagementgoals,potentialvulnerabilities,andcurrentmanagementactionsforgiantclams.Foreachcurrentmanagementactionparticipantsevaluateditseffectiveness(likelytoreduceclimatevulnerability)andfeasibility(likelihoodofimplementation),andidentifiedclimaticandnon-climaticstressorstheactioncouldhelptoamelioratetheeffectsof.Givenactioneffectivenessandfeasibility,participantsthenevaluatedwhetherornottheactionshouldcontinuetobeimplemented.Iftheactionwasrecommendedforcontinuedimplementation,participantsdetailedanychangesregardingwhereandhowtoimplementgivenclimatevulnerabilities.Lastly,participantsevaluatedwhethertherewerepotentialconflictswithorbenefitstootherresourcesfromactionimplementation.

CurrentManagementGoal:Increasegiantclampopulations.Potentialvulnerabilities:• Increasedseasurfacetemperature• Oceanacidification• Erosion/Sedimentation(affectswaterclarityandquality)

CurrentManagement

ActionCurrent


Feasibility





Where/HowtoImplementGivenClimateVulnerabilities OtherResourceConsiderations

Enforceharvestregulationstoavoidover-harvestofthisculturallypopularfoodExistingregulations:- Clamstakenforconsumptionmustbeatleast6inchesinshelllength

- Clamstakenforsalemustbeatleast7inchesinshelllength

High/Moderate

Low–enforcementrequiresfunding

Helpsmaintainahealthypopulation.

Doesnotreallyaddressclimatevulnerabilities,

buthelpsaddressthenon-climatefactorofover-

fishing

Yes Where:Territory-wideHow:Needbetterlawenforcement.Workwithvillagecouncilstoensureminimumsizelimitsarelocallyenforced.

Otherresourcesactionbenefits:LessfishinggenerallyprotectscoralreefhabitatsOtherresourceswithpotentialconflicts:Noneknown

76

- Prohibitionontakeofclamsinthesanctuary

Table8.Potentialfuturemanagementgoals,adaptationactions,andactionimplementationdetailsincludingwhereandhowtoimplementandcollaborationandcapacityneedsforgiantclams.Actioneffectiveness(likelihoodofreducingvulnerability),feasibility(likelihoodofimplementation),andtimeframe(near:<5years;mid:5-15years;long:>15years)werealsoevaluatedforeachadaptationaction.

FutureManagementGoal:Increasegiantclampopulations/stocksbysupportingfisheriesinshallowwatersandstockingclamsindeeperwaters.

Adaptationaction Effectiveness Feasibility Timeframe Implementation(where/how) Collaboration&Capacity- Supporthatcheryforstockinginshallowwatertosupportfisheriesandstockingclamsindeepwaterbeyond100ft(30.48m).tosupportstockreplenishment

- Conductageneticstudyofgiantclamsbetweenislandstodiversifyseedsource

High(50,000clamsperyear)

Low(funding

dependent)

Near-toMid-term(takesabout5yearsforharvesting

time)

Where:WorkwithvillagecounciltogetpermissionandplaceinlocalvillageswithgoodbayandwaterqualityHow:Workwithvillagestoenforceminimumsizefishing;andtherequirementtosellthegiantclamwiththeshell(6”personal;7”commercial)

Collaboration:- External:UniversityMasterstudenttoworkwithlocalschoolsandlocalvillagetoincreasesupportforgiantclamsrestockingefforts

- Internal:NationalParkService,AmericanConservationExperience(NGO)

Capacityneeded:- Graduatestudentsforcommunityoutreachandstudyingimpactsofthermalstressinhatchery

- Funding

77

Table9.Currentmanagementgoals,potentialvulnerabilities,andcurrentmanagementactionsforreeffish.Foreachcurrentmanagementactionparticipantsevaluateditseffectiveness(likelytoreduceclimatevulnerability)andfeasibility(likelihoodofimplementation),andidentifiedclimaticandnon-climaticstressorstheactioncouldhelptoamelioratetheeffectsof.Givenactioneffectivenessandfeasibility,participantsthenevaluatedwhetherornottheactionshouldcontinuetobeimplemented.Iftheactionwasrecommendedforcontinuedimplementation,participantsdetailedanychangesregardingwhereandhowtoimplementgivenclimatevulnerabilities.Lastly,participantsevaluatedwhethertherewerepotentialconflictswithorbenefitstootherresourcesfromactionimplementation.

CurrentManagementGoal:Protectreeffishpopulationsandensuresustainablefishingpractices.Potentialvulnerabilities:• Stressedcoralhabitatswillimpactfishpopulations• Climatechangesmaybetemporarilybeneficialforherbivorefish• Theremaybeabuseofsubsistencefishingprivilegesforcommercialuse

CurrentManagement

ActionCurrent


Feasibility

DoesActionAmeliorateEffectsof

AnyVulnerabiliti

es?




Fullyutilizeandenforcefishingregulations- 2001AmericanSamoaGovernorExecutiveOrderbannedSCUBAfishingduetodepletionofreefpiscivoresandherbivoresandincreaseinfishingefficacy.

- Minimumfishingnetsize,andnets

High(SCUBAspearfishing)–nomoreneedforindustryinfillingSCUBAtanksfor

fishing,morecontrollednow

Moderate/Low(otherfishing)–needmoreregulationandenforcement

Moderate/Low–

Regulationfeasibility/enforcement

issue

Yes,butlimited

Yes Where:Territory-wideHow:Possiblelimitsforreeffishincludingherbivores

Otherresourcesactionbenefits:- Moreprotectionforherbivorousfish

- ProtectscoralreefhabitatOtherresourceswithpotentialconflicts:Noneknown

78

cannotbeleftovernight;netscanonlybeleftunattended3-5hours.

- Dailycatchlimitsexistinfederalwater(3-200miles)(5-322km).

- CommunityFisheriesManagementProgram(0-3miles)(0-5km.)

- Non-destructivefishingruleinterritorialwaters

- Existingno-take-areas

Encouragetraditionalandculturalfishingmethods–thefa’a-Samoa“Samoanway”–thefollowingsanctuaryareasencouragetraditionalandnon-destructivefishingpractices:Fagalua/Fogāma’a,Aunu’uMultipurposeArea,Ta’u,SwainsIsland

Low/Moderate Moderate/High

Yes,butlimited

Yes,iftrulytraditionalfishing

Where:AllvillagesHow:Makesureonlytruetraditionalfishingmethodsareallowed

Otherresourcesactionbenefits:BenefitscoralreefhabitatbyreducingfishingimpactsOtherresourceswithpotentialconflicts:Noneknown

79

Table10.Potentialfuturemanagementgoals,adaptationactions,andactionimplementationdetailsincludingwhereandhowtoimplementandcollaborationandcapacityneedsforreeffish.Actioneffectiveness(likelihoodofreducingvulnerability),feasibility(likelihoodofimplementation),andtimeframe(near:<5years;mid:5-15years;long:>15years)werealsoevaluatedforeachadaptationaction.

FutureManagementGoal:Promotediverseandhealthyreeffishpopulations.

Adaptationaction Effectiveness Feasibility Timeframe Implementation(where/how) Collaboration&CapacitySetsizelimits–makesuretheyareoverthereproductiveage

Moderate/High(ifenforced)

Low–lackofsocialorpoliticalsupport

Near/Mid–needsDMWRsupport

Where:Territory-wideHow:NewlegislationsandregulationsaswellasenforcementcapacityBroad-reachingeducationonimportanceofherbivorefish,maybethroughvillages

Collaboration:External:VillagecouncilsInternal:DMWRCapacityneeded:Socialbuy-inPolicychange

Setcatchlimits–numberofindividualfishperday(ifsold,commerciallicensestillneeded)

Moderate/High(ifenforced)

Low–complicatedbymanyspeciespresentanddifferentsize

Near/Mid–needsDMWRsupport

Educationaloutreachtoencouragenottofishduringbleachingeventsandtohighlighttheimportanceherbivorereeffish

Moderate/Low(takeslotsoftime)

Moderate Near

80

Table11.Potentialfuturemanagementgoals,adaptationactions,andactionimplementationdetailsincludingwhereandhowtoimplementandcollaborationandcapacityneedsforsharksandrays.Actioneffectiveness(likelihoodofreducingvulnerability),feasibility(likelihoodofimplementation),andtimeframe(near:<5years;mid:5-15years;long:>15years)werealsoevaluatedforeachadaptationaction.

FutureManagementGoal:Increaseresearchonsharksandrays.

Adaptationaction Effectiveness Feasibility Timeframe Implementation(where/how) Collaboration&CapacityIncreaseresearchtoidentifyspawning/rearingcriticalhabitat(mostareprotected)

High High Near Where:Territory-wide;inharbors,AirportLagoon,offshoreSaileleHow:Canbedonebutexpensive- PacificIslandsFisheryScienceCentercruisesmaypresentanopportunity

- Interviewfishermentoaskabouthistoricvs.currentpresence

Collaboration:- DMWR- Outsideacademics- HawaiʻiInstituteofMarineBiologyCapacityneeded:- Funding- Staff

Increaseresearchonclimatechangeeffectsonsharksandrays

Moderate Moderate Near Where:N/AHow:Academia

Collaboration:AcademiaCapacityneeded:- Funding- Staff

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Table12.Currentmanagementgoals,potentialvulnerabilities,andcurrentmanagementactionsforseaturtles.Foreachcurrentmanagementactionparticipantsevaluateditseffectiveness(likelytoreduceclimatevulnerability)andfeasibility(likelihoodofimplementation),andidentifiedclimaticandnon-climaticstressorstheactioncouldhelptoamelioratetheeffectsof.Givenactioneffectivenessandfeasibility,participantsthenevaluatedwhetherornottheactionshouldcontinuetobeimplemented.Iftheactionwasrecommendedforcontinuedimplementation,participantsdetailedanychangesregardingwhereandhowtoimplementgivenclimatevulnerabilities.Lastly,participantsevaluatedwhethertherewerepotentialconflictswithorbenefitstootherresourcesfromactionimplementation.

CurrentManagementGoal:Protectturtlenestinghabitat.Potentialvulnerabilities:• Erosion• Sealevelrise(RoseAtollisamajornestingsiteforgreenturtles,andisonly10feetabovesealevel)• Seawallsandotherphysicalbarriers

CurrentManagement

ActionCurrent


Feasibility






Requirepermitsforsandmining–notalotofspacefornestingonTutuila

Low–noenforcement

Low Newerosionofnestinghabitat

Yes Where:Territory-wide:areaswithinTutuila,Ofu&OlosegawherenestingisalreadyhighHow:- Enforcement:possiblytransitionmanagementauthorityfromParksandRecreationtoanotherentity

- Education:communitytakingsandtomakeconcreteforvillagegraves;increaseeducationoncumulativeimpactsofeveryone“takingalittlebit”

- Createlow-costopportunities

Otherresourcesactionbenefits:SeabirdsandshorebirdsOtherresourceswithpotentialconflicts:Noanswerprovidedbyparticipants

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toreducesandremoval(e.g.,possiblycrushglassbottlestocreate“fake”sandthatcanbeusedforconcrete;encouragegreen/brownburials)

- Educationonbenefitsofconservingsandinordertoprotectculturaluses;usetopromoteconservation

- Createculturaldesignationofsandminingsites

- Protectparrotfishtohelpcreatesand

AmendtheProjectNotificationandReviewSystem(PNRS)setbackrequirement–100ft(30.48m).fromshoreline

Low Low Newerosionofnestinghabitat

Yes Where:Territory-wideHow:- Functionality:lotsofdevelopmentstillhappensveryclosetoshoreline,soincreasecomplianceandenforcement

Educationandknowledgeofpermittingprocess

Otherresourcesactionbenefits:SeabirdsandshorebirdsOtherresourceswithpotentialconflicts:Noanswerprovidedbyparticipants

Monitortodetectnumberofturtlesandeggs,satellitetaggingtotrackmigrationroutes

High(RoseAtoll–

majornestingsite)

Low

(Manu’a,Tutuila

becausenotmanyturtles)

High Noanswerprovidedbyparticipants

Yes Where:Territory-wideHow:- Documentlocations,includingchanges:datacouldhelpinformfuturelocationsofdevelopmentanddesignatecriticalhabitat.

- Trackturtlesthatmigrateto

Otherresourcesactionbenefits:NoanswerprovidedbyparticipantsOtherresourceswithpotentialconflicts:Noanswerprovidedbyparticipants

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FijiandFrenchPolynesia(complexmigrations)

- Identifygeneticstructureofpopulation

- Increaseeducationtodecreasefishingduringnestingseasons–createcollaborationswithnewsagenciestoletpublicknowwhennestingoccurs

- Increasepublicknowledgetohelpreportnests(“ISavedaTurtle”t-shirtorpatch)

- Getmoretemperatureloggersoutfortrackingtemperature

- SPREP:taggingdatabasessoyoucantrackwhohastaggedwhat

- MonitoringbeachprofilesatRoseAtolltotrackchangesfromstormsandcyclones–alsoLiDAR

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Table13.Potentialfuturemanagementgoals,adaptationactions,andactionimplementationdetailsincludingwhereandhowtoimplementandcollaborationandcapacityneedsforseaturtles.Actioneffectiveness(likelihoodofreducingvulnerability),feasibility(likelihoodofimplementation),andtimeframe(near:<5years;mid:5-15years;long:>15years)werealsoevaluatedforeachadaptationaction.

FutureManagementGoal:Protectturtlenestinghabitatbypreservingsand.

Adaptationaction Effectiveness Feasibility Timeframe Implementation(where/how) Collaboration&CapacityCreatebanonsandmining(mayrequirechangeinenforcementagencyandneedtoincludeprovisionstoallowforculturaluse)

Moderate Low Mid Where:KnownnestingbeachesHow:MayrequirechangeinenforcementagencydictatedbyGovernor’sOffice.LobbytheFono.

Collaboration:ParksandRecreation,VillageCouncils,Governor’sOffice,Fono,OfficeofSamoanAffairsCapacityneeded:- Policychange- Funding- Staff

Increaseeducationforwhysandiscriticalforturtles

High High Near Where:Territory-wideandVillageCouncilmeetingdays(onceamonth)How:DOC/CoastalZoneManagement/IncorporateintocurriculumforDOE,ASCC

Collaboration:DOC,CoastalZoneManagementProgram,DOE,ASCC,ASEPA,DMWR,OfficeofSamoanAffairsCapacityneeded:Funding

FutureManagementGoal:Protectturtlenestsfromheatstress.

AdaptationAction Effectiveness Feasibility Timeframe Implementation(where/how) Collaboration&CapacityIncreasenativegrass/vegetationplantingtoprovideshade

High Moderate Near Where:KnownnestingbeachesplusbeacheswithhighpotentialfornestsHow:- Collectseeds/cuttingsforpropagation

Collaboration:VillageCouncils,DMWR,ASCC,LandGrant,OfficeofSamoanAffairsCapacityneeded:- Staff

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nearbeaches- VillagesshouldtakeinitiativeforlocalplantingsLeverageandexpandTerritorycoastalvegetationrestorationefforts(living

shorelines,coastalraingardens)toprotectturtles

- Funding- Landfornursery

FutureManagementGoal:Protectturtlesbyincreasinglightmanagement.

AdaptationAction Effectiveness Feasibility Timeframe Implementation(where/how) Collaboration&CapacityUseturtle-friendlystreetlights- Paintoverlights;paintsidethatfacesbeaches

- Usespecialtypesoflightbulbsalongshorelines

High High Near Where:Alongcoastlines.How:PublicWorks,workingwithDMWRandvillagecouncils

Collaboration:PublicWorks,DMWR,LeTausagi,OfficeofSamoanAffairsCapacityneeded:Funding

Increaseeducationforcoastalresidentsandbusinessestoturnlightsoffduringnestingseason- Motionsensorlightsmayalreadybeinuse

High High Near Where:Coastalvillages.How:DMWR,LeTuasagischoolprograms,outreachprogramsinvillages

Collaboration:DMWR,LeTausagi,OfficeofSamoanAffairsCapacityneeded:Funding

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FutureManagementGoal:Createeducation/outreachcampaignaboutseaturtlesandtheirhabitat.

AdaptationAction Effectiveness Feasibility Timeframe Implementation(where/how) Collaboration&CapacityCreatewidespreadpublicawarenesscampaign

High High

Near Where:Territory-wide,villagecouncilre:nestinghabitatsHow:- Buildoffofschoolprograms- Targetedduringpeaknestingseason- Mediablitz–commercials,billboards,schoolprograms

Collaboration:DMWR,Sanctuaries,NationalParkServiceCapacityneeded:- Staff- Funding

Createacitizenscienceprogramforresidentstoreportwhattheysee

High High Near Where:Territory-wideHow:- Createorfindprotocolsfortrackingandreportingturtlepresenceandnests

- Schoolprograms- Makephonenumbertoreportpresenceandnon-compliance;phonenumbershouldbecatchy/inajingle

- Perhapscreatevolunteer-tourismopportunities(EarthWatch)

Collaboration:DMWR,Sanctuaries,NationalParkServiceCapacityneeded:- Volunteers- Protocols

Engagevillagecouncilstohelpprotectandenforcelaws

High(withinvillage

boundariesthereishighenforcement

andcompliance)

High Near Where:VillagesHow:- Targetvillagers–therewillbehighercomplianceifvillagerscanbeenforcers.

- Communicationtool:demonstratewhyprotectionisimportantandwhatwillhappenwithoutprotection

Collaboration:VillagecouncilsCapacityneeded:Funding

Rapid Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Strategies for the ... Samo… · Gene Brighouse and...

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