July 2015

RAPID MARKET ASSESSMENT IN FLOOD AFFECTED AREAS OF

COX’S BAZAR DISTRICT

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Acknowledgements

Thanks are due to Jessica Staskiewicz, Jade Cooper, Nandini Sabrina and Nusrat Jahir from the

WFP Cox’s Bazar Sub-Office for their support and cooperation in the whole process.

Special thanks to the Upazila Chairmen, Upazila members, Union Parishad Chairmen, market

management committee members, local elites and, above all, the community people for their

support in the data collection through Focus Group Discussions (FGDs).

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Contents

1. Overview ............................................................................................................................................... 3

2. Rationale ............................................................................................................................................... 3

3. Objectives ............................................................................................................................................. 3

4. Methodology ........................................................................................................................................ 4

4.1 Assessment Tools ................................................................................................................................ 4

4.2 Market Selection ................................................................................................................................. 4

5. Market Structure ...................................................................................................................................... 7

6. Variation in Price Before, During and After the Flood ............................................................................ 8

7. Accessibility .............................................................................................................................................. 9

8. Supply and Restocking ........................................................................................................................... 10

9. Consumer Behaviour During and After the Flood ................................................................................. 10

10. Conclusion and Recommendation for Unconditional Transfer Modality .......................................... 11

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1. Overview

As a result of heavy rainfall, flooding and subsequent landslide had been reported in the south

eastern part of Bangladesh from around the 23rd June. Three districts, Cox Bazar, Bandarban and

Chittagong were reported to be the worst affected. The Government identified 29 upazilas as

affected. Due to unavailability of loss and damage data and on-ground information on affected

population, the decision making on the response plan became difficult. Against this backdrop, on

the 29th June the Humanitarian Coordination Task Team (HCTT), co-led by the Government,

triggered a Joint Needs Assessment (JNA) for upazilas in southeast Bangladesh using the Phase 2

approach. The JNA reported 1.8 million people affected by the flood and provided a set of

recommendations for priority interventions in key sectors.

2. Rationale

Among the three highest priority needs identified by the JNA ‘food’ tops the list. Hence the JNA

eventually recommended for ‘food assistance’ – either in kind or cash – as short term response.

According to the Food Security Cluster (FSC) Contingency Plan for Flood, an unconditional

transfer is a part of the initial response phase with the pre-condition that markets are fully

functioning. The information gathered from the JNA in all three districts suggests that the

majority of people surveyed are not able to access essential food items such as rice, potatoes,

red lentils and soybean oil. Although none of the community groups reported ‘markets not

functioning’, they identified restricted or no physical access (poor, flooded, or destroyed road

conditions) to markets, unavailability of food commodities (in some of the markets) and increase

in price as main reasons behind having problems in accessing food items.

Nonetheless, this information did not give a sufficiently clear picture of the market situation for

a decision on the response plan. Therefore, an in-depth analysis of the situation was deemed

necessary. A quick glance at the JNA dataset suggested that in Bandarban and Chittagong Districts

the markets were functioning, and a cash transfer would be appropriate for reaching the market

and affording food and commodity prices, whereas in Cox’s Bazar there remained issues of

accessibility and food availability at the markets. Taking these issues into account, the JNA

recommended a Rapid Market Assessment (RMA) in Cox’s Bazar district only. In the HCTT

meeting on 20 July it was decided to conduct a RMA to be led by the FSC.

3. Objectives

The overall objective of the RMA was to assess the functionality of the affected markets in Cox’s

Bazar in order to define the appropriate immediate response modality. The specific objectives

were:

To assess the accessibility to markets

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To examine the availability of basic food commodities in markets

To examine the supply chain and restocking frequency

To analyze the variation in price of basic food commodities before, during and after

the flood

4. Methodology

4.1 Assessment Tools

Considering the scope of work and time constraint, the RMA covered a small range of market

functionality indicators. The tools used include

Reconnaissance of selected markets

FGDs with Market Management Committees (MMCs)

FGDs with flood affected community people

Key features of the assessment involved field teams compiling information into one consolidated

template (Data Entry Sheet) for all selected markets. The draft FGD checklists were discussed

with the WFP Cox’s Bazar Sub-Office staff who were engaged in the JNA, and finalized with their

inputs. From 22 to 23 July the RMA team - divided into two groups composed of two people each

- visited all selected markets and nearby communities in the targeted unions. The completed

checklists were entered into the data entry sheet by the groups in the field and sent to the FSC

Needs Assessment Officer for data processing and analysis. All human resources and logistics

including vehicles were arranged and provided by the WFP Cox’s Bazar Sub-Office.

4.2 Market Selection

The JNA report was the main guiding document for selecting the markets. The RMA team agreed

to include the markets from JNA sites i.e. Cox’s Bazar (CXB) Sadar, Chakaria, Ramu and Pekua

upazila. The team selected three markets from each upazila; and the selection criteria included:

markets in the unions visited during the JNA where community members reported having

accessibility problems, unavailability of food items and high price, as well as markets identified

through conversations with representatives of local NGOs and local government which are

servicing the most affected populations. The list of the selected markets is below:

Sl Upazila Union/s Name of Selected Market

1 Ramu Kawarkup Kawarkup Bazar

2 Between Gorjonia and

Kachhapia (JNA site)

Gorjonia Bazar

3 Gorjonia Beltoli Hat

4 Pekua Baro Bakia Sawdagar Hat

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5 Pekua Sadar (JNA site) Pekua Bazar

6 Between Ujantia and

Mognama (JNA site)

Sonalia Bazar

7 CXB Sadar Piemkhali Piemkhali Bazar

8 Chowfaldandi (JNA site) Chowfaldandi Bazar

9 Between Pokkhali and

Gumatoli

Pokkhali Bazar

10 Chakaria Khutakhali (JNA site) Khutakhali Bazar

11 Makinpur (JNA site) Manikpur Bazar

12 Badarkhali Badarkhali Bazar

Map-1 shows the location of

the selected markets during

the JNA period. The RMA team

visited all selected markets

except Beltoli Hat in Ramu

Upazila. This market was

inaccessible due to a bridge

collapse amid the onslaught of

water. Community people and

street hawkers nearby

informed that it is a very small

and newly established market

with only 7 or 8 shops.

Therefore, the assessment

team decided to exclude

Beltoli Hat from the detailed

assessment and analysis.

A bridge in Gorjonia union of Ramu Upazila collapsed due to flash

floods.

Photo credit: WFP/Kamrul Mithon

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5. Market Structure

All sampled markets are well connected to the major supply nodes both at local and regional

level and half of those are long established (more than 50 years) as well. From a structure point

of view, all markets have a large number of retail shops and a very small number of wholesale

shops. Only Badarkhali Bazar under Chakaria has a large number of wholesale shops which

equally run wholesale and retail business. Table 01 below shows the structure of the selected

markets during the RMA:

Table 01: Structure of selected markets

Upazila Union Name of the

market

No. of years

market exists

No. of

wholesale

shops

No. of

retail shops

Ramu Kawarkup Kawarkup Bazar 24 5 15

Ramu Between

Gorjonia and

Kachhapia

Gorzonia Bazar 70 5 55

Pekua Pekua Pekua Bazar 35 10 100

Pekua Between

Ujantia and

Mognama

Sonalia Bazar 15 2 5

Pekua Baro Bakia Saudagor Hat 10 2 6

CXB Sadar Chowfaldani Chowfaldani

Bazar

70 15 110

CXB Sadar Between

Pokkhali and

Gumatoli

Pokkhali Bazar 50 0 100

CXB Sadar Piemkhali Piemkhali Bazar 55 0 30

Chakaria Khutakhali Khutakhali Bazar 65 3 100

Chakaria Manikpur Manikpur Bazar 30 3 12

Chakaria Badarkhali Badarkhali Bazar 100 70 200

Source: Field Survey, 22-23 July 2015

The MMCs reported that all markets have a catchment area of 3-4 km radius. Most people access

the market by foot. Only Badarkhali Bazar has a larger catchment area. Small/retail shopkeepers

and buyers from around Chakaria upazila - who need to purchase bulk amounts of commodities

for their shops and special purposes, i.e. marriage ceremony or other social and religious event

– come to this market. In most of the households the men usually go to the markets though all

sampled markets were reported safe for women.

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6. Variation in Price Before, During and After the Flood

FGDs with MMCs and community people indicate a price hike of basic food items during the

flood. The reasons reported are the combined effects of supply chain disruption, delay in re-

stocking due to standing water in markets which was slow to recede and the Holy Month of

Ramadan when the demands of some specific food items like red lentils, soybean oil, potatoes,

meat and vegetables (especially eggplants) increases.

Figure 01: Variation in price

The price of coarse rice, potatoes (local), red lentils and soybean oil (loose) increased by 8%, 29%,

10% and 2.5% respectively during the flood. As soon as the flood waters receded, the price of

coarse rice and soybean oil became stable whereas the price of red lentils and local potatoes

further increased by 14% and 17% respectively after the flood. The MMC members reported high

price at source (for red lentils) and damage to stock and local production (for local potatoes) as

reasons for the sharp price increase.

Both the MMC members and community people reported the worst case scenario with

vegetables. The flash flood caused widespread damage to the production and stocks of seasonal

vegetables1. The unit prices of ladies fingers, eggplants, arum almost doubled during flood and,

still remain very high compared to normal periods.

The price of local varieties of small fishes decreased during flood as a result of abundance of small

fish in flood water due to the overspill of rivers and damage to fishing ponds/enclosure (Locally

known as ghers).

1 Seasonal vegetable includes ladies fingers, eggplants, arum

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Coarse rice Potatoes Red Lentils Soybean oil Small fish Seasonal Veg.

Before ( 22 June and before) During (23 Jun-04 Jul) After (07 Jul)

Un

it p

rice

: Tak

a/K

g o

r Ta

ka/L

iter

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7. Accessibility

The RMA team conducted 11 FGDs with MMC members and 4 FGDs with community people (1

FGD/Upazila) living in the villages within 3-4 Km radius from the surveyed markets. All

respondents reported that they depend on the nearby markets for major food items (such as

rice, potatoes, red lentils, soybean oil, fish and vegetables) which they can reach by walking. The

frequency of purchase is once or twice a week for most of the respondents.

Almost all selected markets were affected by the flooding except the Sonalia Bazar under Pekua

Upazila and Badarkhali Bazar under Chakaria Upazila. According to the MMC members and

community people, the affected markets were completely shut-down for around 3-6 days.

Though the markets started to open after the initial shock of 3-6 days of severe rainfall and flash

flooding, some remained inaccessible for around 3-5 more days due to slowly receding waters.

The table below gives a detailed picture of the market status during and after flooding:

Table 02: Status of sampled markets during and immediately after the floods:

Upazila Union Name of

markets

Number of

days the

markets were

shut down

Additional number

of days the markets

remained

inaccessible

Ramu Kawarkup Kawarkup Bazar 3 2

Ramu Between Gorjonia

and Kachhapia

Gorzonia Bazar 4 2

Pekua Pekua Pekua Bazar 2 1

Pekua Between Ujantia

and Mognama

Sonalia Bazar Not Affected

Pekua Baro Bakia Saudagor Hat 3

CXB Sadar Chowfaldani Chowfaldani

Bazar

3 5

CXB Sadar Between Pokkhali

and Gumatoli

Pokkhali Bazar 6 5

CXB Sadar Piemkhali Piemkhali Bazar 5 5

Chakaria Khutakhali Khutakhali Bazar 5 4

Chakaria Manikpur Manikpur Bazar 6 4

Chakaria Badarkhali Badarkhali Bazar Not Affected

Source: Field Survey, 22-23 July 2015

However, during the RMA period (22-23 July) all markets were found fully accessible.

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8. Supply and Restocking

The supply sources for both the retailers and wholesalers in the selected markets remained the

same before, during, and after the flood. The supply chain was disrupted during the flooding but

became normal immediately after the flood water receded. Due to accessibility problem, the

traders couldn’t restock the basic food items from around 25 June to 05 July. This matches with

the JNA findings of consumer complaints about unavailability of food in the markets. But soon

after the water receded, all traders reportedly replenished their stock within 2-4 days.

9. Consumer Behaviour During and After the Flood

During the initial shock period (first 3-5 days of flooding), the markets were totally shut down

and people were struggling to safeguard their assets and livelihoods. The MMC members

reported a 70-80% decrease of consumers immediately after the shock when the markets were

open but inaccessible. During the RMA (22-23 July) they still reported to have 20-25% consumers

less compared to normal times.

From the FGDs with MMC members some changes were identified in the consumption pattern

which were further triangulated with the FGD information from community people. The major

changes in the consumption pattern include:

a. Purchasing less food items

b. Purchasing lower amounts of food items

c. Purchasing cheaper food items

The Venn-diagram below shows the changes in consumption pattern in form of the summation

of normal frequency of each option in the FGD dataset.

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Therefore, as a result of the flooding, most people started purchasing lower numbers and lower

amounts of food items; and both the MMC members and community people identified loss of

livelihood and income as main reason behind the changes.

10. Conclusion and Recommendation for Unconditional Transfer Modality

This assessment examined the market structure, variation in price before, during and after the

flood, accessibility to markets, status of supply chain and restocking, and consumer behaviour

during and after the flood. From the analysis of FGD data, the RMA team identified that the

sampled markets have good linkages with local and regional supply nodes and all markets

became fully accessible and replenished the stock immediately after the flood water receded.

During the RMA period (22-23 July) most people living within the catchment area could access

the markets easily on foot.

Map- 2 shows the changes in status of the markets from flooding period to RMA period (22-23

July). Based on the findings on the current status of these markets, the study team is of the

opinion that those markets which were not covered by the RMA are more or less similar to the

sampled markets in terms of structure, capacity, connectivity and accessibility; hence it can be

assumed that they are already fully functioning. Therefore, it is concluded that unconditional

cash transfer would be the most appropriate transfer modality for the immediate flood response

phase.

A

B

C

D

Legend

A = Total 11 FGDs

B = 10 out of 11 FGDs identified purchasing

less food items as a change

C = 8 out of 11 FGDs identified purchasing

lower amounts of food items as a change

D = 5 out of 11 FGDs identified purchasing

cheaper food items as a change

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However, it is also necessary to explain that at the time of the RMA there was heavy rain, which

continued for 6-7 days and resulted in another spell of widespread flooding in Cox’s Bazar district.

Against the backdrop of the ongoing and projected heavy rainfall - while going ahead with the

unconditional cash transfer - the RMA team strongly recommends for:

Rapid identification of newly affected areas/communities

Quick collection of loss and damage data; and

A very rapid investigation of markets in the newly affected areas through phone calls to

key informants (Local Government Officials, Local NGOs, Market Management

Committee members and traders)

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