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Rapid, flexible simulations to aid climate negotiations:


The C-ROADS Climate ModelMITEI External Advisory Board

8 October 2009

John StermanJay W. Forrester Professor of Management

Professor of Engineering SystemsDirector MIT System Dynamics Group

MIT Sloan School of Managementjsterman@mit.edu

web.mit.edu/jsterman/www617.253.1951

How do people think about climate change?

How do we move beyond delay, denial and despair?

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Emissions now exceed the IPCC Worst-case Scenario.

Foss

il Fu

el E

miss

ions

(GtC

/yr)

(IPCC Worst-Case)

2007: 2.2 ppm/year

Atmospheric CO2 Concentration, 2008:

385 ppm 37% above pre-industrial

Atmospheric CO2 Concentration

Data Source: Pieter Tans and Thomas Conway, NOAA/ESRL

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/webdata/ccgg/trends/co2_data_mlo.pdf

Growth in Atmospheric CO2 1970-79: 1.3 ppm/year 1980-89: 1.6 ppm/year 1990-99: 1.5 ppm/year 2000-07: 2.0 ppm/year 2007: 2.2 ppm/year

2008: 1.7 ppm/year

Acc

eler

atin

g

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Impacts of Projected Warming by 2100

(IPCC AR4)

Mean and 90% confidence interval of Projected

Warming by 2100 under

Business as Usual

(IPCC AR4, A1FI scenario)

1.5 °C2.7 °F

4.0 °C7.2 °F

6.4 °C11.5 °F

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1.5 °C2.7 °F

4.0 °C7.2 °F

6.4 °C11.5 °F

3.5 °C6.3 ° F

5.2 °C9.4 °F

7.4 °C13.3 °F

MIT Joint Program on Global Change

(Sokolov et al. 2009, Journal of Climate)

Projected mean temp increase by 2100

under BAU: 5.2 °C (9.4 °F)

90% range:3.5 – 7.4 °C

(6.3 – 13.3 °F)

Impacts of Projected Warming by 2100

•  Technical, economic and social innovation

•  Strong, enforceable intʼl agreements and domestic policies to reduce GHG emissions

•  Strong public support for intʼl agreements and national policies

•  Distributed leadership—
Govʼt, Corporate, Civil Society

Meeting the Climate Change Challenge Requires

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•  How proposals of individual nations translate into emissions paths at the national level

•  How national proposals aggregate to global emissions

•  How global emissions affect atmospheric GHG concentrations, global mean surface temperature, sea level, other climate impacts

It is difficult for negotiators and policymakers to understand:

•  Peopleʼs understanding of climate dynamics is poor-  Even among highly educated with strong STEM training

Sterman, J. (2008) Science 322: 532-533, 24 Oct.�Sterman, J. and L. Booth Sweeney (2007). Climatic Change 80(3-4): 213-238.

•  Existing climate models –  Unavailable or not fully documented–  Expensive–  Opaque to policymakers–  Cycle time for simulations, sensitivity analysis too long for real-

time use by negotiators

•  Proposals for emissions reductions often –  Framed in incompatible terms (emissions vs. emissions per

capita vs. emissions intensity of GDP)–  Use different metrics (GtC vs. GtCO2 vs. GtCO2e)–  Use different projections for population & economic growth

Need for rapid, flexible climate models:

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Policymaker Mental Models“Currently, in the UNFCCC negotiation process, the concrete environmental consequences of the various positions are not clear to all of us. There is a dangerous void of understanding of the short and long term impacts of the espoused …unwillingness to act on behalf of the Parties.” 

– Christiana Figueres, UNFCCC negotiator 
 for Costa Rica

Difficulty assessing proposals“...delegates [in Bonn] complained that their heads were spinning as they were trying to understand the science and assumptions underlying the increasing number of proposals tabled for Annex I countries’ emission reduction ranges.

http://www.iisd.ca/vol12/enb12403e.html

“They all seem to use different base years and assumptions…:  how can we make any sense of them?” commented one negotiator.”

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Purpose of C-ROADS
(Climate Rapid Overview And Decision Support)

Improve understanding of important climate dynamics among Policymakers Educators The public

to help ensure that climate policy is informed by vetted, peer-reviewed science

C-ROADS Development Team
(Climate Rapid Overview And Decision Support)

–  Dr. Tom Fiddaman, Ventana Systems–  Dr. Travis Franck, MIT & Tufts Fletcher School–  Andrew Jones, Sustainability Institute–  Dr. Phil Rice, Sustainability Institute–  Dr. Beth Sawin, Sustainability Institute–  Dr. Lori Siegel, Sustainability Institute–  Dr. John Sterman, MIT System Dynamics Group

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Partners and Financial Supporters

To meet the challenge, 
C-ROADS designed to be:

•  Fast Simulates in < 1 second

• Accessible and Transparent Used easily on a laptop by non-modelers Open-box; all assumptions easily

examined• Grounded in and consistent with

accepted climate science Explicit carbon cycle, radiative balance Calibrated to and tested against IPCC

AR4, other models and data

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(10 layers)

Carbon Cycle•  Atmosphere•  Two biosphere

compartments•  Ocean:

•  Mixed layer•  10 deep ocean layers

•  Explicit stock/flow structure for other GHGs•  CH4•  N2O•  HFCs, PFCs, SF6, etc.

•  Aerosols & Black Carbon

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(10 layers)

Radiative Balance

OtherForcings

•  CO2•  CH4•  N2O•  Other GHGs•  Aerosols•  Black carbon•  Heat transfer to

surface, deep ocean

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Atmospheric CO2 vs. History

1850 1900 1950 2000

ppm

400

350

300

250

200

C-ROADS

Data

C-ROADS vs C4MIP
SRES A2, coupled models

C-ROADS

Friedlingstein, P., et al. (2006), Climate–Carbon Cycle Feedback Analysis: Results from the C4MIP Model Intercomparison. Journal of Climate, 19(14), 3337-3353.

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C-ROADS Projections
vs. AR4 Ensemble

IPCC AR4 Fig. SPM.5

*

*

* * *

* 43

2

1

0

IPCC AR4 Fig. SPM.5

C-ROADS Projections
vs. AR4 Ensemble

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Sea Level HistorySea Level vs Data

40

-70

-180

-290

-4001850 1872 1894 1916 1938 1960 1982 2004

Time (Year)

mm

Tide Gauge v 2000 : sr7m3Sat v 2000 : sr7m3Sea Level Rise[i A1FI] : sr7m3Sea Level Rise[i B1] : sr7m3Sea Level Rise[Committed] : sr7m3

C-ROADS

Tide Gauge

Satellite

mm

1850 1900 1950 2004

40

-70

-180

-290

-400

C-ROADS Scientific Review Panel

• Dr. Robert Watson Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) and former chair, IPCC

• Mr. Eric Beinhocker McKinsey Global Institute • Dr. Klaus Hasselmann Max-Planck Institut für Meteorologie • Dr. David Lane London School of Economics • Dr. Jørgen Randers Norwegian School of Management (BI) • Dr. Stephen Schneider Stanford University • Dr. Bert de Vries Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency,

RIVM

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Conclusion of Scientific Review PanelThe C-ROADS model •  “reproduces the response properties of state-of-the-art

three dimensional climate models very well.” •  “is a sensitivity tool, rather than a tool to provide precise

quantitative estimates of projected emissions, CO2 concentrations, and temperature and sea level responses.”

•  “Given the modelʼs capabilities and its close alignment with a range of scenarios published in the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC we support its widespread use among a broad range of users and recommend that it be considered as an official United Nations tool. ”

Model Demonstration

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How is C-ROADS being used?• Policymakers and negotiators:

–  Internal capability to use model– Scenario and policy assessment

•  US, China, other nations• Media and the public:

– “State of the global deal” reported on climateinteractive.org

• Educators, business, civil society:– Free web version: C-LEARN–  “Copenhagen Climate Exercise” (Role-play simulation

of UNFCCC negotiations)– Available at climateinteractive.org

Educational version of C-ROADS:Available free at climateinteractive.org

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Future Development•  To enhance the model:

–  Additional feedbacks, climate impacts–  Additional policies, scenarios–  Economic impacts (mitigation and adaptation costs, transition

dynamics)

•  To support policymakers and negotiators:–  Create a common, transparent platform UNFCCC parties and

others (e.g., US-China bilateral talks) use jointly to evaluate proposed emission reductions goals and policies.

•  To support educators, businesses, civil society:–  Open source version of C-LEARN anyone can modify, enhance–  Train citizens to use the model, run the Copenhagen Climate

Simulation, and embed the model in curricula at all levels (K-12, university, executive, government, public education)

Thank you


For more information:

climateinteractive.org