Rapid Assessment of Drought Situation in India using the South Asia Drought Monitor for

Rabi Season 2016-2017

SADMS Background

Drought is a complex hazard caused by the breaking of water balance and it has always an impact on agricultural,

ecological and socio-economic spheres. Although the drought indices deriving from remote sensing data have been used

to monitor meteorological or agricultural drought, there are no indices that can suitably reflect the comprehensive

information of drought from meteorological to agricultural aspects. The “South Asia Drought Monitoring System” project

proposed innovative approach of developing integrated drought severity index (IDSI) is defined as a principal component

of vegetation condition index (VCI), temperature condition index (TCI) and precipitation condition index (PCI), Soil

condition index (SCI). IDSI integrates multi-source remote sensing data from moderate resolution imaging

spectroradiometer (MODIS) and tropical rainfall measuring mission (TRMM) and Global Precipitation Measurement

(GPM) Products and it synthesizes precipitation deficits, soil thermal stress and vegetation growth status in drought

process. Therefore, this method is favorable to monitor the comprehensive drought over South Asia. In our research, a

heavy drought process was accurately explored using IDSI in Sri Lanka and South India from 2000 to 2014. Finally, a

validation was implemented and its results show that IDSI is strongly correlated with 3-month scales standardized

precipitation index (SPI3), but also with variation of crop yield and drought-affected crop areas. It was proved that this

index is a comprehensive drought monitoring indicator and it can contain not only the meteorological drought information

but also it can reflect the drought influence on agriculture. Below section provides detail description on various drought

indices utilized and satellite data image processing and results on drought maps, validation of drought product and field

investigation.

Agriculture Drought Monitor for Rabi Seasons (2016 November – March 2017)

SADMS framework was applied for the drought-affected States in India using satellite remote sensing data. Prior

reviewing the drought index (Integrated Drought Severity Index – IDSI), Indian Meteorological Rainfall maps were

analysed to understand rainfall deficit which could help in validating the drought maps with the absence of insitu

observations.

The below IMD monthly maps shows actual, normal and anomaly maps in reference into long-term rainfall records. It

can be noted the Kharif experience below average rainfall in most part of the States in India and follow up rabi season

(Nov – March) had similar anomaly of rainfall for each of the months as seen in the maps. This has resulted wide spread

water shortage for agriculture drought in parts of States covering Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Madhya

Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, West Bengal, Bihar, Uttara Pradesh, Gujarat and Rajasthan.

Andhra Pradesh

The Integrated Drought Severity Index (IDSI) for Andhra Pradesh were assesed at district level. It can be noted the

districts of Anantapur, Kurnoonl, Prakasam, parts of Guntur and Krishna experience moderate to severe drought and

stress category for Chittor and Nellore districts. It can be noted the Rabi season most of these districts had severed

Gram production losses and it is estimated Bengal Gram and Black gram together account to 8.25 lakh hectares out of

the 10 lakh hectares area sown under Rabi Pulses cultivation in Andhra Pradesh.

Agriculture Drought condition for Andhra Pradesh covering the rabi seasons (2016 Nov – Mar 2017). Note: The maps

has been not validated with the field observation and presently corroborating secondary information for detail

assessment.

It can be noted that for the 2016 Kharif season (map below), the Andhra Pradesh Government on Friday declared 245 mandals in seven districts of the state as drought-affected during the Kharif agricultural season because of deficient rainfall during the southwest monsoon period. As against the normal 556 mm, the state received 533.8 mm of rainfall between June 1 and September 30 this year, marking a deviation of minus four (-4) per cent. In 2015, the deviation in rainfall was -5.4 per cent. Based on the reports furnished by the respective district Collectors, the Committee on Drought recommended declaration of 245 mandals in the state as drought-hit. Anantapur, known as a perennially drought-hit, accounted for the highest number of 63 mandals followed by Chittoor with 53, Kurnool (36), Kadapa (32), SPS Nellore (27), Prakasam (23) and Srikakulam (11) are the other districts that have been declared as drought-affected.

Agriculture Drought condition for Andhra Pradesh covering the Kharif season (2016 June – October 2016). Note: The

maps has been not validated with the field observation and presently corroborating secondary information for detail

assessment.

Table 1: District wise agriculture drought for Andhra Pradesh covering both the Rabi (2016 Nov – March 2017) and

Kharif (June – October 2016).

Districts Rabi Season Kharif Season

District (sq.km)

Drought Affected area (sq.km)

District vs Drought Area (%)

Drought Affected area (sq.km)

District vs Drought Area (%)

Anantapur 19296.69 2100.6 10.89 6125.5 31.74

Chittoor 15225.85 58.8 0.39 2323.3 15.26

Cuddapah 15205.03 389.0 2.56 1180.8 7.77

East Godavari 10766.69 212.9 1.98 419.4 3.90

Guntur 11429.24 571.1 5.00 478.0 4.18

Krishna 8621.524 526.1 6.10 171.7 1.99

Kurnool 17841.06 685.8 3.84 412.4 2.31

Nellore 13116.33 501.9 3.83 1932.6 14.73

Prakasam 17848.65 1149.7 6.44 2134.8 11.96

Srikakulam 6294.923 346.2 5.50 269.0 4.27

Vishakhapatnam 11401.44 52.6 0.46 155.0 1.36

Vizianagaram 5743.631 47.9 0.83 153.1 2.66

West Godavari 7778.132 389.2 5.00 288.7 3.71

Note: Statistics provided here used average drought area for a given district and this has not be validated with ground

validation.

Rajasthan

The Integrated Drought Severity Index (IDSI) for Rajasthan were assesed at district level. The desert state of Rajasthan has

recorded excess rains with 20 of its 33 districts receiving more than normal rains. Twenty districts of Ajmer, Alwar, Baran,

Bhilwara, Bundi, Chittorgarh, Dausa, Dholpur, Dungarpur, Jaipur, Jhalawar, Karauli, Nagaur, Pratapgarh, Rajsamand,

Churu, Sawaimadhopur, Sikar, Tonk and Udaipur received excess rains (20 per cent to 59 per cent) from June 1 to August

3. It can be noted the districts of Alwar, Bharatpur, Southern parts of Sikar, northern parts of Dausa and Jaipur is under

severe to extreme drought category; and southern Jaipur, Sawai Madhopur, Ajmer, parts of Nagaur and Jalor show stress

condition. In the current rabi season (Nov, 2016 – March, 2017), a total area of close to 12 lakh hectare has suffered from

extreme to moderate drought condition, and this accounts for up to 3.6% of the total area of Rajasthan.

Unlike Southern States in India, Rajasthan is much better condition going by the drought index. Further it can be

corrobrated the fact the scheme Mukhyamantri Jal Swavlamban Abhiyan with the water conservation structure has

resulted signifcant improved in addressing the drought.

Agriculture Drought condition for Rajasthan covering the rabi season (2016 Nov – Mar 2017). Note: The maps have not

been validated with the field observation and presently corroborating secondary information for detail assessment.

Table 1: District wise agriculture drought for Rajasthan covering both the Rabi (2016 Nov – March 2017)

Districts District (sq.km)

Drought Affected area

(sq.km)

District vs Drought Area

(%)

Alwar 8304.66 774.45 9.33

Baran 6837.63 312.77 4.57

Barmer 28372.90 273.15 0.96

Bharatpur 5059.25 603.57 11.93

Bikaner 26965.42 224.12 0.83

Bundi 5584.73 340.35 6.09

Churu 17075.11 446.44 2.61

Dausa 3596.10 409.40 11.38

Dhaulpur 3030.69 198.87 6.56

Dungarpur 3785.08 10.64 0.28

Ganganagar 11679.58 1327.32 11.36

Hanumangarh 8912.65 404.04 4.53

Jaipur 11263.82 1349.77 11.98

Jaisalmer 38637.64 319.20 0.83

Jalor 10726.06 381.52 3.56

Jhunjhunun 5922.03 958.08 16.18

Jodhpur 22842.41 356.88 1.56

Kota 5514.29 529.86 9.61

Nagaur 17676.90 1229.52 6.96

Pali 12347.51 126.12 1.02

Sikar 7693.65 1144.52 14.88

Tonk 7252.65 129.96 1.79

Note: Statistics provided here used average drought area for a given district and this has not yet been validated with

ground validation.

Tamil Nadu

The Integrated Drought Severity Index (IDSI) for Tamil Nadu were

assesed at district level. It can be noted the districts of Salem,

Namakkal, Tirucherapalli, Ramanathapuram, Kurur and

Thoothukudi is under severe to extreme drought category; and

Dindigul, Thiruvarur Southern parts of Erode and eastern parts of

Cuddalore show moderate drought condition. In the current rabi

season (Nov, 2016 – March, 2017), a total area of close to 35 lakh

hectare has suffered from extreme to moderate drought condition,

and this accounts for up to 27% of the total area of Tamil Nadu.

The southwest monsoon usually facilitates the Cauvery delta

farmers in eight districts to grow paddy and in some districts in

these region have received rainfall but they have faced agricultural

productivity due to lack of timely arrival of rainfall. Further the

northeast monsoon has ended with a deficit rainfall of 60%, leaving

several areas in Tamil Nadu, especially Chennai staring at a severe

water crisis. Tamil Nadu, in particular, recorded a large deficit. The

total rainfall in the state was 168 mm while the normal rainfall is

440 mm. As per thenewsminute, just a year after the disastrous

floods in Chennai and other parts of Tamil Nadu, the state is facing

one of its worst monsoons in 150 years. Records show that in 2016,

the state received the lowest ever rainfall in a year since 1876.

Agriculture Drought condition for Tamil Nadu covering the rabi season (2016 Nov – Mar 2017). Note: The maps have

not been validated with the field observation and presently corroborating secondary information for detail assessment.

Table 1: District wise agriculture drought for Tamil Nadu covering both the Rabi (2016 Nov – March 2017)

Districts District (sq.km)

Drought Affected area (sq.km)

District vs Drought Area (%)

Ariyalur 1958.31 279.38 14.27

Chennai 191.95

Coimbatore 7435.55 1619.65 21.78

Cuddalore 3825.63 913.67 23.88

Dharmapuri 9684.92 2188.31 22.60

Dindigul 6081.47 1272.72 20.93

Erode 8207.83 3420.70 41.68

Kancheepuram 4665.59 509.84 10.93

Kanniyakumari 1596.91 60.45 3.79

Karur 2900.72 2148.97 74.08

Madurai 3702.73 1093.76 29.54

Nagapattinam 2404.71 313.81 13.05

Namakkal 3414.25 1841.74 53.94

Nilgiris 2556.29 17.32 0.68

Perambalur 1759.11 587.90 33.42

Pudukkottai 4706.20 899.25 19.11

Ramanathapuram 4254.49 1576.67 37.06

Salem 5230.96 2225.12 42.54

Sivaganga 4082.98 1016.27 24.89

Thanjavur 3399.64 315.31 9.27

Theni 2856.85 697.13 24.40

Thiruvallur 3241.78 552.59 17.05

Thiruvarur 2516.46 220.11 8.75

Thoothukudi 4721.27 1654.08 35.03

Tiruchchirappalli 4522.34 2181.93 48.25

Tirunelveli Kattabo 6798.79 1963.49 28.88

Tiruvannamalai 6207.48 1590.33 25.62

Vellore 6090.80 996.22 16.36

Villupuram 7322.28 1759.23 24.03

Virudhunagar 4306.98 1475.63 34.26

Note: Statistics provided here used average drought area for a given district and this has not yet been validated with

ground validation.

Karnataka

The Integrated Drought Severity Index (IDSI) for Karnataka were assesed at district level. It can be noted the districts of

Bellary, Dharwad, Chamrajnagar, Chitradurg, Gadag, Hassan, Mysore and southern parts of Raichur is under extreme

drought category; Davangare, Haveri, Koppal, Mandya and Tumkur under severe drought and parts of Bidar and Kolar

show moderate drought condition. In the current rabi season (Nov, 2016 – March, 2017), a total area of close to 50 lakh

hectare has suffered from extreme to moderate drought condition, and this accounts for up to 26% of the total area of

Karnataka.

In 2016, Karnataka was one of the 11 states that recorded a deficit southwest monsoon, besides being one of the 27 states

in the country that received lesser-than-expected rainfall during northeast monsoon. The state registered a 15% deficit in

the Southwest monsoon that lasts between June and September. The total rainfall received by the state in this four-month

period in 2016 was 710.8mm, against a normal rainfall of 832.2mm.

The northeast monsoon, — expected between October and December — which affects some portions of Karnataka,

including Bengaluru, Kolar and other southern districts saw a massive 71% deficit, though there ere predictions made in

November that the shortfall would only be 15%. The State received just 53.9mm of rainfall, against 188.2mm, during the

northeast monsoon. In fact, the first two months of 2017 haven't brought much relief to the state either. Against an

expected 3.8mm, the state received only 2.8mm in January and Febraury - a 26% deficit (IMD Source).

Figure Rainfall Distriction for Southwest Monsoon (2016) and similar defifict noticed for 2015 SW Monsoon compared to

the long-term annual accumulated rainfall. This clearly explains the last 2 years the SW monsoon experienced severe

agricultural losses and overall impact on the food security.

Agriculture Drought condition for Karnataka covering the rabi season (2016 Nov – Mar 2017). Note: The maps have not

been validated with the field observation and presently corroborating secondary information for detail assessment.

Agriculture Drought condition for Karnataka State covering the Kharif season1 (2016 June – October 2016). Note: The

maps have not been not validated with the field observation and presently corroborating secondary information for

detail assessment.

1 Compilation of 2016 drought from Karnataka State Natural Disaster Monitoring Centre https://www.ksndmc.org/Drought.pdf

Table 2: District wise agriculture drought for Karnataka covering both the Rabi (2016 Nov – March 2017) and

comparison to Kharif season drought (June – Oct 2016)

Districts District (sq.km)

Rabi Season Kharif Season

Drought Affected area (sq.km)

District vs Drought Area (%)

Drought Affected area (sq.km)

District vs Drought Area (%)

Bagalkot 6575.1 237.8 3.6 686.0 10.4

Bangalore Rural 5832.7

Bangalore Urban 2187.3

Belgaum 13380.8 571.0 4.3 987.6 7.4

Bellary 8455.4 2327.8 27.5 2291.9 27.1

Bidar 5450.9 20.8 0.4 1111.7 20.4

Bijapur 10519.7 170.9 1.6 39.7 0.4

Chamrajnagar 5675.7 471.6 8.3 1707.2 30.1

Chikmagalur 7215.4 315.3 4.4 1271.2 17.6

Chitradurga 8459.8 1655.9 19.6 3969.7 46.9

Dakshina Kannada 4578.4

Davanagere 6632.8 959.1 14.5 1899.5 28.6

Dharwad 4276.1 792.5 18.5 1484.2 34.7

Gadag 4647.3 805.6 17.3 1539.1 33.1

Gulbarga 16280.0 101.1 0.6 2279.0 14.0

Hassan 6816.7 707.5 10.4 1684.2 24.7

Haveri 4811.5 571.4 11.9 2076.4 43.2

Kodagu 4111.8

Kolar 8231.8 127.1 1.5 2695.0 32.7

Koppal 5575.5 1305.8 23.4 1057.2 19.0

Mandya 4944.6 407.0 8.2 573.4 11.6

Mysore 6321.9 654.5 10.4 2833.3 44.8

Raichur 8465.3 2194.7 25.9 505.5 6.0

Shimoga 7762.3 102.4 1.3 932.0 12.0

Tumkur 10631.7 476.1 4.5 3439.9 32.4

Udupi 3914.7 0.0 0.0

Uttara Kannada 10307.2 70.8 0.7 268.5 2.6

Note: Statistics provided here used average drought area for a given district and this has not yet been validated with

ground validation.

Acknowledgement: The Status of drought report for selected States in India is supporting with the funding from CGIAR

Program on Water, Land and Ecosystems (WLE), Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF), Japan and

International Water Management Institute (IWMI). We also thank IMD and Skymet weather agencies for sharing the

datasets which are available in public domain.