Rancho Bernardo 92127 Real Estate Report

Current prices for homes on the marketTrends in pricing

Current levels of supply and demandValue metrics

market updateMarket Trends Report

SAN DIEGO92127

Sunday October 24, 2010Report for the week of

Powered by Altos Research LLC Copyright 2005-2010. All Rights Reserved

Windermere Exclusive Propertieswww.HotOnSanDiego.com

Presented by Sue Johnson & Associates760-801-0414

www.altosresearch.com

http://www.altosresearch.com

Sue Johnson's Market Research Report

The median single family home pricein SAN DIEGO this week is $475,000.The 3202 homes have been on themarket for an average of 113 days.

THIS WEEK

Most Expensive ListingLeast Expensive Listing

Median List PriceAverage List Price

Real-Time Market Profile Trend

Total Inventory

$ 475,000$ 654,420

$ 12,255,876$ 87,900

3202113Average Days on Market

Asking Price per Square Foot $ 278

231Absorbed This Week*Percent of Properties with Price Decrease 44 %Percent Relisted (reset DOM) 11 %Percent Flip (price increased) 24 %

City Overview SAN DIEGO

6,501 - 8,000 sq ft

Altos Research Value StatisticsMarket Action Index

Median Number of BedroomsMedian Number of Bathrooms

Median House Size (sq ft)Median Lot Size

Median Age

1,753

3.72.236

17Cold! Buyer's MarketAltos Research calculates the Market Action Index which measures available supplyrelative to the current level of demand. Index value above 30 indicates conditions favorthe seller. See the section below for full details.

With inventory trending up but days-on-market and the Market Action Indexessentially flat recently, conditionsdon't seem to have strong up or downpull.

To get a tightly targeted understandingof homes in the market, we break eachlocale into quartiles. Each quartile is25% of the homes listed.

QUARTILES

Characteristics per Quartile

Last Month's Trend Last Quarter's Trend

Trend Key

No Clear Monthly/Quarterly Trend

Bed BathMed.Sqft.

Med.Age Inven. New

Ab-sorbedMed. Lot SizeMedian PriceQuart

Avg.DoM

*Metric "Absorbed this Week" covers properties sold and those taken off the market for other reasons.Since sales sometimes take months to close, it is impossible to discern in real-time exactly which propertiessold.

Most expensive 25% of homes3,104 4.0 3.5 11 800 34 548,001 - 10,000

sq ft$ 1,047,2501 146

Upper-middle 25% of homes1,873 3.0 2.5 33 800 42 646,501 - 8,000

sq ft$ 576,2502 102

Lower-middle 25% of homes1,470 3.0 2.0 45 801 59 534,501 - 6500

sq ft$ 390,0003 101

Least expensive 25% of homes1,222 3.0 2.0 50 801 47 606,501 - 8,000

sq ft$ 231,0004 106

We'll refer to the quartiles in the trendgraphs below.

2Market Trends Report Market Update for SAN DIEGO


PRICEDespite this week's down tic, the marketseems to have paused around thisplateau. The Market Action Index is agood leading indicator for thedurability of this shift.

QUARTILE PRICES

Pricing is on a slightly negative trendlately. Prices in Quartile 4 and 1 havebeen mixed recently, while the rest ofthe market is trending downward. Lookto a strong, persistent up shift in theMarket Action Index as a leadingindicator of the trough in the market.

Often, we find insights by watchingpricing trends within the quartilesegments.



The market plateau is seen across theprice and value. The price per squarefoot and median list price have bothbeen reasonably stagnant. Watch theMarket Action Index for persistentchanges as a leading indicator beforethe market moves from these levels.

PRICE AND VALUE

INVENTORYInventory has been climbing lately.Note that rising inventory alone doesnot signal a weakening market. Look tothe Market Action Index and Days onMarket trends to gauge whether buyerinterest is keeping up with availablesupply.



The SAN DIEGO market is currentlyquite strongly in the Buyer's Marketzone (below 30). The 90-day MarketAction Index stands at 17. With severalmonths of inventory available at thecurrent sales rate, buyers should findample choice.

The market has shown some evidence ofslowing recently. Both prices andinventory levels are relativelyunchanged in recent weeks. Watch theMarket Action Index for changes as itcan be a leading indicator for pricechanges.

The Market Action Index (MAI) illustrates the balance between supply and demand using astatistical function of the current rate of sale versus current inventory.

An MAI value greater than 30 typically indicates a “Seller's Market” (a.k.a. "Hot Market")because demand is high enough to quickly gobble up available supply. A hot market willtypically cause prices to rise. MAI values below 30 indicate a "Buyer's Market" (a.k.a. "ColdMarket") where the inventory of already-listed homes is sufficient to last several months atthe current rate of sales. A cold market will typically cause prices to fall.

MARKET ACTION INDEXResidential house prices are a function of supply and demand, and market conditions can becharacterized by analyzing those factors. Watch this index for sustained changes: if the indexfalls into the Buyer’s Market zone for a long period, prices are likely in for a downwardcorrection.

Not surprisingly given the overallMarket Action Index, all quartiles are inthe Buyer's Market zone with severalmonths of inventory given the currentrate of demand for homes in thequartile. Watch the quartile for changesbefore the overall market shifts. Oftenone end of the market (e.g. the low end)will improve and signal a strengtheningmarket before the whole group changes.

The quartiles can help you answer the question, "How hot is the market for homes in my pricerange?"

MARKET ACTION QUARTILES



DAYS ON MARKET (DOM)The properties have been on themarket for an average of 113 days. Halfof the listings have come newly on themarket in the past 84 or so days.

DOM PER QUARTILEIt is not uncommon for the higherpriced homes in an area to take longerto sell than those in the lowerquartiles.



92127Neighborhood DetailSAN DIEGO

Most Expensive ListingLeast Expensive Listing

Median List PriceAverage List Price

Real-Time Market Profile Trend

Total Inventory

$ 850,000$ 1,257,903

$ 8,500,000$ 399,000

235133Average Days on Market

Asking Price per Square Foot $ 281

18Absorbed This Week

The median single family home pricein SAN DIEGO 92127 this week is$850,000.

THIS WEEK

Median Number of BedroomsMedian Number of Bathrooms

Median House Size (sq ft)Median Lot Size

Median Age

3,441

4.03.5

5Altos Research Value Statistics

0.25 - 0.50 acre

Market Action Index 17Cold! Buyer's Market

Inventory and days-on-market areclimbing, while the Market Action Indexhas been flat recently. The trends pointto a weakening market.

PRICEWe continue to see prices in this zipcode bouncing around this plateau.Look for a persistent up-shift in theMarket Action Index before we seeprices move from these levels.



PRICE PER QUARTILEIn the quartile market segments, we seeprice for this zip code in general withprice stagnation in recent weeks.Quartile 4 is down, while the rest of themarket is basically flat. Look to theMarket Action Index to determine if thisplateau is the stage for a prolongedprice decline.

QUARTILESCharacteristics per Quartile

Bed BathMed. SqftMed.Age Inven. New

Ab-sorbedMed. Lot SizeMedian PriceQuart

Avg.DoM

Most expensive 25% of homes1.0 - 2.5 acres5,850 5.0 5.5 4 58 4 5$ 2,515,0001 169

Upper-middle 25% of homes0.25 - 0.50acre3,878 4.0 4.5 6 59 3 6$ 1,149,5002 151

Lower-middle 25% of homes3,114 4.0 3.5 4 59 0 34,501 - 6500

sq ft$ 724,9003 98

Least expensive 25% of homes1,852 3.0 2.5 7 59 4 44,501 - 6500

sq ft$ 499,0004 116

The market plateau is seen across theprice and value. The price per squarefoot and median list price have bothbeen reasonably stagnant. Watch theMarket Action Index for persistentchanges as a leading indicator beforethe market moves from these levels.

PRICE AND VALUE



INVENTORYInventory has been climbing lately with235 properties available this week. Notethat rising inventory alone does notsignal a weakening market. Look to theMarket Action Index to gauge whetherbuyer interest is keeping up withavailable supply.

The SAN DIEGO 92127 is quite stronglyin the Buyer's Market zone. The 90-dayMarket Action Index stands at 17. Withseveral months of inventory availableat the current sales rate, buyers shouldfind ample choice.

MARKET ACTION INDEX

MARKET ACTION QUARTILESNot surprisingly, all quartiles are in theBuyer's Market zone with severalmonths of inventory given the currentlevels of demand. Watch the quartilesfor changes before the overall marketshifts.



DAYS ON MARKETThe properties have been on the marketfor an average of 133 days. Half of thelistings have come newly on the marketin the past 98 or so days. Watch the 90-day DOM trend for signals of a changingmarket.

DAYS ON MARKET

It is not uncommon forthe higher priced homes in an area(Quartiles 1 and 2) to take longer tosell than those in the lower quartiles.

About Altos Research CorporationAltos Research Corp. reports real-time analysis of the residential real estate market in local markets acrossthe country. All information contained herein is based on properties currently listed for sale and availablepublicly. When evaluating a particular property, make sure you use comparable sales data in addition tothe market trend information available in this report. The data presented in this report is accurate to thebest of our knowledge, but cannot be guaranteed as such. Use this report as one input in the real estatedecision making process, but do not rely on it for accuracy. Nothing in this report or any other AltosResearch publication is a recommendation to buy or to sell real estate. We recommend you work with alicensed real estate agent or broker.

Altos Research LLC Copyright 2005-2010. All Rights Reserved www.altosresearch.com


http://www.altosresearch.com

Rancho Bernardo 92127 Real Estate Report

Documents

Transcript of Rancho Bernardo 92127 Real Estate Report