Paper No. 036

Rainfall Trend Analysis in Saharanpur District of Uttar

Pradesh-Agricultural Context

Pankaj Garg, Gopal Krishan*, M.S. Rao, C.P. Kumar and Rajesh Aggarwal

National Institute of Hydrology, Roorkee

247667-Uttarakhand

*Corresponding author: drgopal.krishan@gmail.com

ABSTRACT

The present study examines the general rainfall pattern in Saharanpur district of Uttar Pradesh, using monthly rainfall data for 30 years (1982-2011). The annual rainfall ranged from 498 to 1566 mm with an

average rainfall value of 1027 mm. A falling trend was found during the years 2000 to 2011 with an exception

in 2001 and 2010. The recent decline in the annual rainfall yield is predominantly as a result of the substantial

decline in July to October rainfall. Decline in rainfall in the months of July to October might have serious

agricultural implications because most agricultural activities of Kharif and Rabi seasons in this area rely on

rainfall of this period. The decline in the annual rainfall yield also led to the lowering of water table in some

parts of the study area. This has an implication in digging of wells, construction of bore holes, and other water

resource development projects that depend on water from groundwater sources.

Keywords: Rainfall trend analysis; Saharanpur; Kharif and Rabi seasons; water resource development

INTRODUCTION

Water resource has become a prime concern for any development and planning including food production and effective water resource management. Considering the importance of agricultural

sector for the economy and food requirements, there is a need for reliable estimates of major crop

production under varied climate change provisions and circumstances. In order to have a reliable

estimate of varied climate change provisions, it is necessary to analyze the recent and expected future

trend of annual and seasonal total rainfall. Rainfall is a renewable resource, highly variable in space

and time and subject to depletion or enhancement due to both natural and anthropogenic causes.

Knowing the variations in the general rainfall pattern is vital to understand the climate change

variations and consequently change in cropping pattern and yield.

Keeping above points in mind this study was carried out for district Saharanpur of Uttar

Pradesh.

Study area

Saharanpur district, with an area of 3689 sq. kms., situated in Western Region of Uttar

Pradesh (Figure 1), is one of the most agricultural developed parts of the State (70 per cent of the land

is under agricultural use). The district is divided into 4 tehsils namely Behat, Saharanpur, Nakur and Deoband. It has 11 development blocks and 1278 inhabited villages. According to census 2001, the

district is having a total population of 28, 96,863 person, which accounts for 1.74 per cent of the

States population.

Fig.1: Study area map

Hydro-Geology

Saharanpur forms the most northerly position of the doab land which stretches between the holy rivers of the Ganges and the Yamuna. The Shivalik hills rise above it on the northern frontier. As

regards its physical features, the north and the north east of the district is surrounded by Shivalik hills

and separates it from Dehradun district of Uttarakhand. The river Yamuna forms its boundary in the

West, which separates it from Karnal and Yamunanagar districts of Haryana. In the East lies the

district of Haridwar (Figure 1) and in the South lies the district Muzaffar Nagar. The district is almost

in a rectangular shape and lies between 29o3445and 30 o2130N and 77o9& 78o1445E.

The main characteristics of the district can be divided into four parts:

(1) Shivalik hill tract

(2) The Bhabar land

(3) Bangar land

(4) Khadar land (Yamuna, Hindon)

Yamuna is an important river of the district. Apart from this Solani, Hindon, Ratmau, Nagdev

have also played an important role in the physical reconstruction of the district. All the rivers of the

district submerge either in Yamuna or in Ganges.

Climatic conditions

The climate of Saharanpur resembles the average climate of Uttar Pradesh in general, but its northern position and its proximity to the hills give its own peculiarity. Though the region lies well

outside the tropics, yet its climate is like that of the rest of Northern India. It belongs to the uppermost

part of the Upper Ganga plain which is a sub-humid region between the dry Punjab plain and the

humid middle Ganga plain within the monsoonal region of the Great Plains and naturally resembles

the characteristics of the two adjoining regions. The average temperature recorded is 23.3 degree

Celsius. The month of June is being the hottest month while January is the coldest one. The highest

percentage of humidity i.e. 72 to 85 per cent is found during the rainy season and the lower range of

humidity between 29 to 51.5 per cent is recorded in the summers. The eastern part of the region is

more humid than the western part and relative humidity tends to increase in winters. The atmospheric

pressure of the region is inversely related to the temperature. July recording the lowest while

December recording the highest pressure.

Land use

It is very fertile agricultural belt famous for plentiful yield in grains and fruits. On account of

high population pressure in Saharanpur district, more than 75% of the reporting area has been brought

Haridwar Saharanpur

3022'

3012'

3002'

2952'

2942'

2932'

7705'

7725'

7745'

7805'

7825'

3028'

0 20000

40000

R. Yamuna

R. Ganga

under cultivation in the district which is higher as compared to the proportion of net cultivated area at

the State level (69 %). Although, the percentage of area under forest in the district is quite good (9.13

%) in comparison with the area of forest at the State level (6.97 %), but it is still low according to the

norms set form the forest area for a district. Despite the higher proportion of net area sown in the

district, cropping intensity has remained quite low (155 % in Saharanpur as compared to 193 % in the

State), which indicates that traditional structure of agriculture has not changed much in the district

despite the fact that level of irrigation in the district has been far better than what could be in the state

as a whole.

Table -1: Land Use Pattern in Saharanpur District

Sl.

No

Items Saharanpur

(hectares)

Uttar Pradesh

(000 hectares)

1 Reporting Area (hectare) 363791 (100.00) 24201 (100.00)

2 Forest 33229 (9.13) 1686 (6.97)

3 Barren and uncultivable Land 1307 (0.36) 548 (2.27)

4 Land put to non-agricultural uses 48971 (13.46) 2594 (10.71)

5 Culturable waste land 1211 (0.33) 467 (1.93)

6 Permanent pastures and grazing land 176 (0.04) 66 (0.27)

7 Land under miscellaneous trees, crops and

groves

1315 (0.36) 359 (1.48)

8 Current fallows 1931 (0.53) 1137 (4.69)

9 Other fallows 1449 (0.40) 594 (2.46)

10 Net area sown 274202 (75.37) 16750 (69.22)

11 Area sown more than once 149534 (41.10) 8675

12 Cropping intensity 155.73 193.08

13 Percentage of irrigated area to net area

sown

90.43 78.97

14 Percentage of irrigated area to gross area

sown

89.13 72.86

Source: Statistical Bulletin, 2006, District Saharanpur.

Irrigation sources

It has been observed that the irrigation coverage has been much higher in Saharanpur district

to the extent that more than 90 per cent of the net area sown in the district has been brought under

irrigation. In this way, most of the cultivated land is irrigated in the district. Most important source of

irrigation is tube wells, mostly the private, through which more than 78 per cent of the net areas are

irrigated in the district. Second major source of irrigation in the district is canal irrigation. More than

17 per cent of net area sown is irrigated by canal source in Saharanpur district (Table 2).

Table -2: Sources of Irrigation in Saharanpur District during 2004-05

S.No Source Area (hectare) %age to Net Irrigated Area

1 Canal 43652 17.12

2 Tube well (Government) 10900 4.27

3 Tube well (Private) 200425 78.58

4 Well - -

5 Pond 3 00.00

6 Other 66 00.03

Total 255046 (100.00)

Source: Statistical Bulletin, 2006, District Saharanpur.

Table 3: Categorization of Study Area and Variation in Water Table during 2000-2009

Site

Fall (-)/rise (+) in m per

year Category

Badshahibagh + 0.06 Safe

(0.8 m/yr) Badbala -1.08

Source: Garg et al., 2012

From table 2, it is clear that 82.85% of the irrigation is done through the groundwater and as

evident from the table 3 that out of 11 blocks, 5 blocks are in medium to high risk category. The only

source of recharging the water table is rain and any declining trend in rainfall may adversely affect the

groundwater availability in the study area. Keeping in view the above points, the rainfall trend

analysis of the Saharanpur for the past 30 years is done.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The hydro-geological, hydro-meteorological and topographical data was collected from UP

State Groundwater Board, Saharanpur. The rainfall data have been collected from Meteorological

Department, Muzafarrabad, Saharanpur district and analyzed by using the mathematical and statistical

techniques of data analysis. The arithmetical procedure involves the determination of average rainfall

for a specific period. The departure of the rainfall from the average annual rainfall determines the

rainfall pattern. The determination of cumulative departure of rainfall provides the information

regarding the total departure of rainfall from the mean value over a specific period. The commonly

used procedures of statistical analysis as followed by Gupta and Kapoor (1980) and Davis (2002)

have been followed herein. The computation of statistical parameters includes mean, median, mode,

standard deviation and coefficient of variation. Based on time series analysis (Croxten et al., 1988),

the prediction of future rainfall trend has been visualized.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

The mathematical method involving calculation of the average rainfall of years or months as

shown by the arithmetic mean of the period of years or months, is the most commonly used method.

A record of 30 years (1982-2011) is used for rainfall data analysis and to find the total monthly and

annual rainfall values for Sahahranpur (Table 4, Figs. 2, 3).

Table 4: Rainfall data (mm) of Saharanpur district for the period 1982-2011

Year JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Total

1982 68.4 68.9 69.9 61.5 51.9 48.8 168.3 254.2 6.9 3.3 0.9 59.4 862.4

1983 103 23.5 7.2 124 31.6 48.3 607.8 436.9 59.6 4.8 0 8.2 1454.6

1984 59.4 115 0 3.8 0 289 307.5 251.3 48.4 0 0 0 1074.8

1985 11.2 0 1 21.2 1.4 89.2 298 188.3 139.2 155 0 50.6 955

1986 0 89 12.5 10.2 78.1 110.7 188.4 217.9 118.2 12.5 19.6 37.4 894.5

1987 27.8 37.4 25.3 47.8 112 85.4 64.7 44.6 40.8 0.4 0 11.4 497.7

1988 0.6 37.5 81.5 2 22.3 84 503 502.5 261.2 0 0 71.5 1566.1

1989 76 25 8 1.5 15 58.5 328.5 503.5 80.5 0 20.5 98 1215

1990 0 118 33 7 20 23 45 376.5 320.5 16 12 114 1084.5

1991 0 38.5 21.8 15.5 8.5 105.7 116.2 132.5 134 0 0 39.5 612.2

1992 42 47 4.5 9.2 0.2 21.5 302.1 617.3 77.7 0 10.4 0 1131.9

1993 56.1 34.5 73.5 0 32.5 73.7 384.2 372.6 372.6 0 30 0 1429.7

1994 48 42.5 1 49 21.8 106.1 457.9 291.5 80.5 0 0 0.5 1098.8

1995 48.5 64.5 11 12 0 98 422 492 159.5 0.5 1 0 1309

1996 24 79 24 2.5 10.5 159 24.5 676 150.5 93.5 0 0 1243.5

1997 18.5 1 4 128 13.5 64 582.5 100 164.5 43 40.5 83.5 1242.5

1998 2.5 25 100.5 39.5 42.5 168 315 242 139 133 0 0 1206.5

1999 77.5 3 9 0 22.5 81.5 320.5 363 250 0 0 3 1130

2000 40 65 26 38 29.5 29.5 315 220 133 0 0 0 896

2001 16 2 30.5 16.5 72.5 274 441 168 2 2 1 5 1030.5

2002 27.5 111 4 23 15 166.5 183.5 194.5 287.5 10 0 0.5 1022.5

2003 70.5 37.5 0 12.5 7 81.2 312 209 109 0 8 12 858.7

2004 83 0 67 19 70.5 299.5 168.5 42 48.5 5.5 0.5 0 804

2005 42.5 31.5 79.5 2 1 46 277 102 441 0 0 0 1022.5

2006 10.5 0 58 0.5 136 129.5 351.8 61.5 42.7 27 0 10 827.5

2007 0.7 124 74.4 2.8 11.5 149 182.9 324.6 35.8 0 0 0 906.1

2008 0 0 0 0 0 313.6 196.8 225.1 24.6 8.3 0 0 768.4

2009 0 0 0 0 0 0 142.2 193.9 218.9 0 0 0 555

2010 8.3 20 0 0 19.3 28.3 462 285.3 399.7 0 0 1 1223.9

2011 0 32.7 13.3 9 64 295.7 191.7 154.9 126.3 0 0 0 887.6

TOTAL 962 1273 840.4 658 911 3527.2 8660.5 8243.4 4472.6 514 144.4 605 30811.4

Annual average rainfall = 1027 mm

The total rainfall during the 30 years ranged from 497.7 mm in year 1987 to 1566.1 mm in

year 1988 with an average of 1027 mm.

Fig.2: Average monthly rainfall of Saharanpur for the period (1982-2011)

Fig.3: Total rainfall of Saharanpur for the period (1982-2011)

The departure and cumulative departure from the average rainfall for the study area has been

depicted in table-5 and figure-4. The trend of annual departure from the computed value of average

annual rainfall reveals that;

(i) Years showing annual positive departure with respect to average annual rainfall were 1983, 1984, 1988, 1990, 1992-1999, 2001 and 2010. Positive trend of rainfall during

these years shows the favourable conditions for recharge.

(ii) Years showing annual departure less than the average annual rainfall were 1982, 1985-

1987, 1991, 2000, 2002-2009 and 2011. The negative trend during these years shows the

unfavourable conditions for recharge.

Fig.4: Departure from average rainfall of Saharanpur for the period (1982-2011)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecR

ain

fall

(m

m)

Months

450

650

850

1050

1250

1450

1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014

Ra

infa

ll (

mm

)

Year

-600

-200

200

600

1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Dep

art

ure

fro

m a

ver

ag

e

Ra

infa

ll (

mm

)

Year

Table 5:Annual rainfall data and its departure and cumulative departure from average annual rainfall

in Saharanpur district (1982-2011)

Year Total rainfall

Departure from

average rainfall

Cumulative departure

from average rainfall

1982 862.4 -164.65 164.6

1983 1454.6 427.55 592.15

1984 1074.8 47.75 639.9

1985 955 -72.05 567.85

1986 894.5 -132.55 435.3

1987 497.7 -529.35 -94.05

1988 1566.1 539.05 445

1989 1215 187.95 632.95

1990 1084.5 57.45 690.4

1991 612.2 -414.85 275.55

1992 1131.9 104.85 380.4

1993 1429.7 402.65 783.05

1994 1098.8 71.75 854.8

1995 1309 281.95 1136.75

1996 1243.5 216.45 1353.2

1997 1242.5 215.45 1568.65

1998 1206.5 179.45 1748.1

1999 1130 102.95 1851.05

2000 896 -131.05 1720

2001 1030.5 3.45 1723.45

2002 1022.5 -4.55 1718.9

2003 858.7 -168.35 1550.55

2004 804 -223.05 1327.5

2005 1022.5 -4.55 1322.95

2006 827.5 -199.55 1123.4

2007 906.1 -120.95 1002.45

2008 768.4 -258.65 743.8

2009 555 -472.05 271.75

2010 1223.9 196.85 468.6

2011 887.6 -139.45 329.15

Total 30811.4 -0.1

Annual average rainfall = 1027 mm

Fig.5: Trend value of rainfall of Saharanpur for the period (1982-2016)

Statistical analysis of the rainfall data of recent 30 years reveals that the mean annual rainfall

of the area is 1027 mm (Table 6). The computed value of the mode 1022.5 mm indicates ideal rainfall

for the area. The calculated value of standard deviation reveals that deviation of rainfall is of 256.5

mm over a period of 30 years. The coefficient of variation was found to be 24.97. The coefficient of

skewness has been computed as 0.01774, which indicates a positive trend.

Table 6: Computation of statistical parameters of rainfall data of Saharanpur

Statistical parameter Computed value

Mean 1027 mm

Median 1026.5 mm

Mode 1022.5 mm

Standard deviation 256.50

Coefficient of dispersion 0.250

Coefficient of variation 24.97

Coefficient of skewness 0.01774

Table 7: Time series analysis of rainfall data of Saharanpur district

Year x y x2 xy Trend value

1982 -14 862.4 196 -12073.6 1137.79

1983 -13 1454.6 169 -18909.8 1130.22

1984 -12 1074.8 144 -12897.6 1122.66

1985 -11 955 121 -10505 1115.09

1986 -10 894.5 100 -8945 1107.52

1987 -9 497.7 81 -4479.3 1099.96

1988 -8 1566.1 64 -12528.8 1092.39

1989 -7 1215 49 -8505 1084.82

1990 -6 1084.5 36 -6507 1077.26

1991 -5 612.2 25 -3061 1069.69

1992 -4 1131.9 16 -4527.6 1062.12

1993 -3 1429.7 9 -4289.1 1054.56

1994 -2 1098.8 4 -2197.6 1046.99

1995 -1 1309 1 -1309 1039.42

1996 0 1243.5 0 0 1031.86

450

650

850

1050

1250

1450

1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014

Tre

nd

Va

lue

Year

1997 1 1242.5 1 1242.5 1024.29

1998 2 1206.5 4 2413 1016.72

1999 3 1130 9 3390 1009.15

2000 4 896 16 3584 1001.59

2001 5 1030.5 25 5152.5 994.02

2002 6 1022.5 36 6135 986.45

2003 7 858.7 49 6010.9 978.89

2004 8 804 64 6432 971.32

2005 9 1022.5 81 9202.5 963.75

2006 10 827.5 100 8275 956.19

2007 11 906.1 121 9967.1 948.62

2008 12 768.4 144 9220.8 941.05

2009 13 555 169 7215 933.49

2010 14 1223.9 196 17134.6 925.92

=0 y=29923.8 x2=2030 xy=-15360.5

The time series analysis (Table 7) generates valuable information regarding the trend of a

series of observations and the trend line is depicted in figure 5. It helps to measure the deviation from

the trend and also provides information pertaining to the nature of trend. The analysis can be used as a

tool to forecast the future behaviour of the trend. The method of least square fit of straight line has

been used for performing the trend analysis of the behaviour of annual rainfall. On this basis, the

future forecast of rainfall amount for a period of 5 years from 2012 to 2016 has been made (Table 8),

which shows a negative trend for the coming years. Similar observations were also recorded by Singh

and Dev (2009, 2012). Table 8 presents the expected rainfall during the period 2012 to 2016.

However, in view of drought situation prevailing during the current year (2012), there may be

deviations from these values.

Table 8: Determination procedure of expected future rainfall trend of Saharanpur

Year Expected future rainfall trend

(mm)

2012 910.79

2013 903.22

2014 895.65

2015 888.09

2016 880.52

Impact on Agriculture

As we are aware that the increasing population put pressure to increase the food grain

production. For producing the food crops in the Saharanpur area, the farmers mainly depend on the

groundwater for the source of irrigation. Approximately 82% of the irrigation needs are being met

through groundwater in Saharanpur district. The rainfall is one of the most important meteorological

parameter that acts as a main source for recharge of groundwater system. The variation analysis of

rainfall data of Saharanpur reveals a fairly good range of variation indicating the positive trend before

2000 and negative trend from 2000 onwards and that is resulting in depletion of groundwater. The

present trend of over exploitation due to ever increasing population, industrialization, irrigation and

lesser rainfall than the annual average value are affecting the groundwater levels, which are depleting

at an alarming rate. According to Todd (1980), Groundwater levels may show seasonal variation due to rainfall. Drought extending over a period of several years, contribute to declining water level. The depletion of groundwater levels may be assigned to seasonal variations infiltration of rain water and

extraction of groundwater. The implementation of an appropriate strategy for rainwater harvesting

will generate the possibilities of improving the augmentation of groundwater reservoir. The control

over depleting trend of groundwater level will provide remedy of sustained water supply to the

farmers of the Saharanpur region.

CONCLUSION

The rainfall data analysis of Saharanpur region for a period of 30 years (1982 to 2011) reveals

variation in the rainfall amount and points out a negative trend of rainfall in future. It is suggested that

optimum development of rainwater harvesting and other water resource development projects that

depend on surface water as well as groundwater sources will provide remedial solution to the

prevailing problem of depleting groundwater level of the Saharanpur region.

It is recommended that farmers should overcome the problem of declining rainfall by planting

drought resistance crops or early maturity species. Diversifying the economic base of the populace

with emphasis on reducing over dependence on rain fed agriculture is another way of coping with this

problem. We assume that the global climate and the local environmental changes are the chief factors

for the variation in rainfall over the recent times.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

Authors thank the Director, National Institute of Hydrology for his support and encouragement for the

study. Thanks to Dr. M.K. Goyal, Scientist F for his useful suggestions.

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