Rail Passenger Demand Forecasting

A View from the Industry

Tony Magee

Passenger Demand Forecasting Scheme

Manager

Presented to: ITS Masters Students

November 2014

Passenger Demand Since the Beginning

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The Passenger Railway since the beginning - Passenger Miles and Journeys

Passenger miles, millions (LHS)

Passenger journeys, millions (RHS)

ITS November 2014

What is the GB Rail Industry?

Who are ATOC and the PDFC?

The origins of the PDFH

What the PDFH has helped to achieve so far

ITS November 2014

Some examples of where PDFH was used

Comparing PDFH and TP approaches

Some areas to be improved on

Some more nice charts and a picture!

Franchised Passenger Freight

Operators and Owning Groups

The Rail Industry Structure

Freight Passenger

Specifiers

Regulator

Operators

Suppliers

National Safety & Standards Body

System Authority?

(ROSCOs)

OEMs

Customer

Consultancies

Overhaulers

Passenger Freight

Who is a part of the ATOC?

What is ATOC?

• ATOC is a trade organisation

• ATOC's mission is to work for passenger rail operators in serving customers and supporting a prosperous railway

• ATOC incorporates: • Rail Settlement Plan (Ticketing)

• National Rail Enquiries (Customer Information)

• Commercial Activities (Including the PDF Scheme)

• Rail Staff Travel

The Passenger Demand Forecasting Scheme

• The PDF Scheme is a part of ATOC with its own full time Manager and Governing body:

• The PDF Scheme Manager

• Passenger Demand Forecasting Executive (PDFE)

• Passenger Demand Forecasting Council (PDFC)

Who are a part of the Passenger Demand Forecasting Council (PDFC)?

It is similar to a club with a fee paying membership:

Full Members

• All the Train Operating Companies (TOCs)

• The Department for Transport (Rail Executive)

• Transport Scotland & the Welsh Government (Devolved)

• The Office of Rail Regulation (ORR)

• Transport for London (TfL)

• Passenger Transport Executive Group (PTEG)

• Associate Members

• Industry Consultants, the larger orgs but also the smaller

• The proportion of overseas Associates is growing

The interest shared by the Membership

Passenger Demand Forecasting Handbook (PDFH)

• The PDFH is unique in the world

• The envy of other national railway planning organisations

• The above also applies to our LENNON ticket sales data

The interest shared by the Membership

• Screen shot of the web-based version first page

The Origins of the PDFH

The Origins of the PDFH

• PDFH came about in June 1986 (Bitish Rail [BR] Policy Unit)

• Replaced British Rail Passenger Forecasts (June 1982)

• The central aim was to provide a consistent and solid basis for investment appraisal

• Also pricing and service planning across BR

• Supporting well founded investment proposals at Dept for Transport

• Contained 55 references and similar to current structure

The Origins of the PDFH

“The Passenger Demand Forecasting Handbook is intended to assist managers who are making decisions about investment and service planning. It attempts to bring together all the sources of evidence on the responsiveness of passenger demand for rail travel to changes in a large number of attributes. In doing this, the Handbook provides the best estimates, at this point in time, of the influence of these attributes. It does not provide a once and for all answer. It is expected that as research continues, modification will become necessary”

The history the PDFH

• Was first intended as an evidence base (with updates)

• First Edition June 1986 (Policy Unit - John Segal)

• Second Edition June 1989 (Policy Unit - Dave Shilton)

• Third Edition April 1997 (PDFSS - Mike Lampkin/Rail Operational Research)

• National Passenger Demand Forecasting Framework 1999 (ATOC/Railtrack- D. Shilton/SDG)

• Fourth Edition 2002 (PDFC – C. Nash/ITS Leeds)

• Fifth Edition 2009 (PDFC – J. Segal/MVA)

• Version 5.1. 2013 (PDFC - J. Segal/MVA & M. Wardman)

• Version 6.0? – To Follow

What PDFH has achieved so far

The PDFS/PDFC demand forum has:

• Proactively supported research, ultimately responsive to outside evidence

• Exploited large amounts of ticket sales data for analytical purposes

• Helped pioneer the use of SP in transport planning in UK

• Now 278 references in PDFH Section E

• Transparent and easy to apply and update method

• No “black boxes” in PDFH

• All studies involve a panel of experts from industry

What PDFH has achieved so far

• UK prices elasticities

• 167 studies and 1633 elasticities

• Rail ticket sales: 66 (40%) studies and 931 (57%) elasticities

• UK time elasticities

• 377 time elasticities from 69 studies

• Rail ticket sales: 44 (64%) studies and 263 (70%) elasticities

• UK valuations of time related attributes

• 1619 valuations from 203 studies

• 303 (19%) from 56 (28%) studies commissioned by Railway Industry

Some examples of where PDFH was used

• DfT and TS - NMF, RIFF, HLOS and franchise bids

• Incorporated into DfT WebTAG guidance

• Underpins EDGE (DfT exogenous forecasting model)

• Bidders for franchises

• TOCs for investment/service enhancements/pricing

• Network Rail in RUSs and in investment appraisal

• Local Authorities for investment appraisal

• Competition Commission

• ORR and Network Rail use it for performance regime calcs

• It provides the elasticities in MOIRA and other rail models

• To improve High Speed Rail mode choice models!

PDFH

• GJT and fare elasticities

• Connection time = Train Time and large interchange penalty

• Large income elasticities

• Elasticities applied to existing demand (incremental)

• Transparent properties and easily updated

Transport Planning

• Generalised Cost/Time

• Double weight connection time and low interchange penalty

• Lower income elasticities

• Significant data requirements and model parameters

• Properties of models not always readily transparent or easily updated

Comparing the PDFH and TP approaches

Some areas to be improved on:

• Ticket Sales Data

• NPAAS 1972-1985 (the largest data base outside the Pentagon)

• LENNON – 1 year by date; 2 years by week; 5 years of four-weekly data; 10 years by annual

• Ticket Sales Data in Travelcard areas

• No archiving/pooling of data used in many studies

• Historic data on competition

• Historic and detailed data on reliability and crowding

Some areas to be improved on:

• Too many studies not had the resources to “bottom the issue”

• Dynamic behavioural adjustments (although we have tried)

• Not exploited outside/matching funding opportunities enough

• Short term/parochial focus at times

• Separate world to disaggregate modelling

• Not exploited Census, NTS, GIS, ‘Before and After’ monitoring much yet

• Catchment area analysis - People don’t travel station-to-station but O to D

• Fresh blood and ideas

Some research areas to be explored further

• Better understanding of ticket competition (is volume being achieved but at the expense of revenue losses)?

• How will new technology impact on rail demand?

• To understand better how the elasticities central to PDFH vary:

• with the competitive situation;

• with levels that they take;

• importantly, with the levels other variables take;

• between the short- and the long-run (how long is the L-R?)

• Bridge the Gap with other modelling approaches

• Exploit different and new data sources to fill gaps and enhance understanding

Please bring on the charts and the picture!

Perception of the Railway Industry

Three train signallers 'hold key to rail chaos'

The Great Christmas Travel Getaway is hit as floods, signal failures and animals on rail tracks cause chaos for holidaying Britons

Talk about cattle class! COW on the tracks brings rush hour train services to a standstill for two hours

Public perception of the rail industry

Punctuality Punctuality

Overall satisfaction Vs Punctuality (PPM) Overall Satisfaction vs Punctuality

Passenger satisfaction – Punctuality &

Reliability

Passenger Satisfaction – Punctuality & Reliability

Passenger Journeys

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Passen

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(m

)Passenger Journeys Since 1960

The result - services are busier than ever before

Why Rail?

• A career in rail will offer opportunities to:

– Be involved in massive investment programmes

– Rise through the ranks quickly

– Develop and deploy leading edge solutions

– Earn good pay and benefits

– Get responsibility very early in career

– Be involved in a huge breadth of activity – can follow

your interests within one industry

– Opportunities for technical specialism or business

management

– Work is often fun – rail has a sense of identity,

humour and purpose