Raiffeisen-Landesbank Tirol AG - Privatkunden · 2020-05-04 · Raiffeisen-Landesbank Tirol AG...

FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

CREDIT OPINION23 January 2017

Update

RATINGS

Raiffeisen-Landesbank Tirol AGDomicile Austria

Long Term Deposit Baa1

Type LT Bank Deposits - Dom Curr

Outlook Stable

Please see the ratings section at the end of this reportfor more information. The ratings and outlook shownreflect information as of the publication date.

Contacts

Katharina Barten 49-69-70730-765Sr Vice [email protected]

Alexander Hendricks,CFA

49-69-70730-779

Associate ManagingDirector - [email protected]

Carola Schuler 49-69-70730-766Managing Director [email protected]

Raiffeisen-Landesbank Tirol AGSemiannual Update

Summary Rating RationaleWe assign Baa1/P-2 issuer and deposit ratings to Raiffeisenlandesbank Tirol (RLB Tirol). Theratings are based on the bank's baa3 baseline credit assessment (BCA) which reflects itssound capitalisation, adequate funding profile and strong liquidity. At the same time theBCA remains constrained by the bank's below-average asset quality, the tail risks associatedwith its concentrated investments, and the weak operating environment and thereforeprofitability pressures.

The Baa1 ratings reflect: (1) the bank's baa3 BCA; (2) the baa3 adjusted BCA, whichincorporates “very high” affiliate support from Raiffeisen Banking Group (RBG, unrated), butdoes not result in rating uplift; and (3) the result of our Advanced Loss Given Failure (LGF)analysis, which takes into account the severity of loss faced by the different liability classesin resolution, adding two notches of rating uplift from RLB Tirol's baa3 adjusted BCA to itsissuer and deposit ratings.

Exhibit 1

Rating Scorecard - Key Financial Ratios

Source: Moody's Financial Metrics

http://www.surveygizmo.com/s3/1133212/Rate-this-research?pubid=PBC_1053122

MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

Credit Strengths and Weaknesses

» RLB Tirol's capitalisation has improved to satisfactory levels

» Non-performing loans remain relatively high and asset quality remains vulnerable owing to sector concentrations and market risks

» The bank's profitability is modest, with some dependence on Raiffeisen Zentralbank Oesterreich AG's (RZB, Baa2 positive/Baa2positive)1 earnings

» RLB Tirol's large liquidity cushion and access to sector funds mitigate funding risks

» Senior creditors benefit from a large volume of outstanding debt, and therefore a very low loss-given-failure, in the unlikely eventof resolution

Rating Outlook

» The outlook for RLB Tirol's long-term ratings is stable, reflecting our expectation that the bank will be able to sustain, if not furtherimprove, its satisfactory capitalisation and positive trend in asset quality.

» The Raiffeisen sector's financial strength remains a limiting factor on RLB Tirol's individual creditworthiness. Further progress inthe RZB Group's ongoing downsizing and restructuring plan, to be implemented by year-end 2017, will likely continue to stabiliseRaiffeisen Bank International (RBI, Baa2 positive/Baa2 positive, ba3)2. However, RBI's large size and higher-risk profile relative to thedomestic Raiffeisen sector will probably continue to constrain individual members banks' BCAs to the low investment-grade levelsduring 2017.

Factors that Could Lead to an Upgrade

» RLB Tirol's long-term ratings could be upgraded if (1) stronger fundamentals justify an upgrade of the BCA; (2) RBG's financialstrength improves such that it raises or removes the current rating constraints, or even results in affiliate support uplift; and/or (3)it benefits from additional rating uplift, as assessed in our Advanced LGF analysis. The latter is unlikely, however, given that thiswould require materially higher subordinated instruments.

» Upward pressure on the BCA would arise if the bank demonstrates that it can sustain the positive trend in its asset quality metricsand improve profits to raise its capital-generation capacity.

Factors that Could Lead to a Downgrade

» A downgrade could be prompted if (1) weakening fundamentals warrant a downgrade of the bank's BCA; (2) we were to downgradeRBG's BCA, as this could raise the current constraints for RLB Tirol's BCA; and (3) the volume of senior unsecured liabilitiesmaterially declines, as this would raise the loss-given-failure for senior creditors which could lead to a weaker result from our LGFassessment.

» Negative pressure on the BCA could result from a material weakening of RLB Tirol's profitability and capital ratios, and/orindications of materially rising asset risks.

This publication does not announce a credit rating action. For any credit ratings referenced in this publication, please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page onwww.moodys.com for the most updated credit rating action information and rating history.

2 23 January 2017 Raiffeisen-Landesbank Tirol AG: Semiannual Update


Key Indicators

Exhibit 2

Raiffeisen-Landesbank Tirol AG (Unconsolidated Financials) [1]12-152 12-142 12-133 12-123 12-113 Avg.

Total Assets (EUR billion) 7.4 7.1 7.3 7.1 7.4 0.24

Total Assets (USD billion) 8.1 8.6 10.1 9.3 9.5 -4.14

Tangible Common Equity (EUR billion) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 2.04

Tangible Common Equity (USD billion) 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 -2.54

Problem Loans / Gross Loans (%) 6.3 8.5 7.0 4.3 6.2 6.45

Tangible Common Equity / Risk Weighted Assets (%) 13.1 12.7 12.2 11.4 10.8 12.96

Problem Loans / (Tangible Common Equity + Loan Loss Reserve) (%) 31.2 39.8 34.1 22.2 33.6 32.25

Net Interest Margin (%) 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.85

PPI / Average RWA (%) 0.9 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.16

Net Income / Tangible Assets (%) 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.25

Cost / Income Ratio (%) 70.5 59.9 62.8 59.5 57.8 62.15

Market Funds / Tangible Banking Assets (%) 67.3 68.5 70.4 70.0 73.3 69.95

Liquid Banking Assets / Tangible Banking Assets (%) 63.6 62.1 63.2 40.6 39.0 53.75

Gross loans / Due to customers (%) 139.2 147.4 153.4 156.6 181.3 155.65

[1] All figures and ratios are adjusted using Moody's standard adjustments [2] Basel III - fully-loaded or transitional phase-in; LOCAL GAAP [3] Basel II; LOCAL GAAP [4] Compound AnnualGrowth Rate based on LOCAL GAAP reporting periods [5] LOCAL GAAP reporting periods have been used for average calculation [6] Basel III - fully-loaded or transitional phase-in &LOCAL GAAP reporting periods have been used for average calculationSource: Moody's Financial Metrics

Detailed Rating ConsiderationsWith total assets of €7.4 billion as of December 2015, RLB Tirol is one of the smaller of the eight Raiffeisenlandesbanken in Austria.RLB Tirol is majority-owned by 71 local primary credit co-operatives in the region, for which the bank is the central institution. In theTyrolean area, the regional co-operative sector has sizeable market shares in retail banking, and in lending to private customers andsmall and medium-sized enterprises.

RLB Tirol has a 5.64% share in RZB (and therefore is an indirect shareholder of RBI). Until 2014 this participation contributed asignificant portion to RLB Tirol's income. The bank's financial reporting is based on local GAAP.

RLB Tirol's improved capitalisation is satisfactoryRLB Tirol reported a satisfactory 13.1% Common Equity Tier 1 ratio as of year-end 2015, which had improved from 12.5% one yearearlier, under the Capital Requirements Regulation and Directive (CRR/CRD IV). The ratio benefitted from a slight increase in CET1capital as well as a 4% reduction in risk-weighted assets (RWAs) during 2015.

In addition to its €391 million CET1 capital, RLB Tirol has additional capital resources stemming from 1) €17.5 million reserves underAustrian local GAAP which are not included in its regulatory capital; and 2) considerable hidden reserves on its participations which thebank accounts for at their costs of acquisition. If the bank were to report under IFRS, the respective amounts would be attributed to itsCET1 capital.

Notwithstanding the hidden reserves, the bank's €206 million participations (mostly the 5.64% stake in RZB) as of year-end 2015represents a material concentration in the context of RLB Tirol's €391 million CET1 capital. To take account of the related risk, wesimulate a 20% impairment on the bank's stake in RZB, which we discount from its tangible common equity (which for RLB Tirol isequal to its CET1 capital of €391 million, as of December 2015), and adjust the Capital Score accordingly, resulting in an a3 score.

RLB Tirol's asset risk, although improving, remains relatively highRLB Tirol's problem loan ratio improved to 6.3% in 2015 from a high 8.5% in 2014, but it remains weaker compared with the ratios ofits Austrian peers that also focus on the domestic market. For 2016-17, we expect that the bank's problem loans will continue to trenddown, underpinned by the benign credit environment for the sectors that the bank is most exposed to, in particular tourism. The bank'sprovisioning levels of above 60% are adequate.



Lending activities to commercial customers, predominantly small and medium-sized enterprises, account for roughly three quarters ofthe €2.4 billion loan book and contains considerable sector concentrations. Its exposure to real estate, at €452 million, is particularlylarge relative to its capital. Other concentrations are to the tourism and retail trade sectors. These concentrated sector exposures aresomewhat mitigated by the stable economic environment in the Tyrolean area and southern Germany.

RLB Tirol's Asset Risk Score is ba3. This score includes adjustments for concentration risk and market risk, the latter reflecting the bank'ssizeable loans denominated in foreign currencies.

RLB Tirol's profitability is modest and partly dependent on RZB's dividendsRLB Tirol reported a net profit of €12.4 million as of year-end 2015 which, however, included a charge of €13.3 million accordingto §57 BWG which the bank transferred to reserves (but accounted for as a cost item in its risk charges). Adjusted for this item, netprofit was €25.7 million, which reflects a 32% improvement year-on-year, but included some positive one-off effects. The underlyingperformance, however, reflects revenue pressures, given a 7% decrease in net interest income to €51 million. The latter was due tomargin erosion, which the bank could only partly offset by a mildly improved net commission income of €22.6 million. Income fromaffiliated companies decreased by almost €9 million (49%), because RZB did not pay any dividend for the year.

The bank's core earnings and cost structure have been broadly stable in recent years, with an average net income to tangible assetsratio of 0.35% during 2012-15 (adjusted for transfers to and releases of reserves). That being said, the recent performance illustratesthat RLB Tirol remains dependent on returns on its participations, which adds a level of volatility.

For 2016-17, we expect that persistent pressure on the bank's operating revenue, coupled with low or no dividends from RZB andlimited scope for reducing costs, will result in lower profits. That said, risk charges will likely remain at a low level. In addition, RLB Tirolmay gradually reap the benefits of various projects that aim at streamlining processes and adjusting the business to changing customerneeds. These measures could ease or even offset persistent revenue pressures.

RLB Tirol's Profitability score of ba2 reflects the bank's stable underlying performance, but also the modest loss-absorption capacity ofits pre-provision income.

The bank's sound liquidity mitigates funding risks, additionally supported by access to sector funds and retail depositsAs the central institution for the local Raiffeisen banks in Tyrol, RLB Tirol has access to diversified funding sources including sectorfunds (€1.98 billion in 2015) and own issuances (€1.37 billion). These funds are complemented by deposits (€1.82 billion) and interbankfunding (€1.7 billion from banks outside the sector). The bank's (unadjusted) market funds ratio remains high, at 67% in 2015. However,for our assessment of the bank's funding profile we make favourable adjustments for several risk-mitigating factors, including for fundsreceived from primary credit cooperatives and from RZB, which leads to an assigned Funding Structure Score of ba1.

RLB Tirol has a relatively liquid balance sheet, considering that its loan book and investments only represents 35% of its total assets,with the remainder mostly comprising inter-bank claims (38%, mostly due from the sector) and securities investments (26%). Thebaa1 Liquidity Score reflects our adjustments for intra-sector lending to primary banks and asset encumbrance.

RLB Tirol's ratings are supported by its Macro Profile Score of Strong +RLB Tirol's Macro Profile is Strong+, at the same level as the Strong+ Macro Profile for Austria (Aa1 stable3), because the bank's assetsare primarily generated in its home market.

Austria's Strong+ Macro Profile reflects the country's stable economic environment, with a robust institutional and legal framework,sound government finances, and a low susceptibility to adverse events. Despite rising house prices, private sector debt is lowand declining, further supporting credit conditions. Our Macro Profile also takes into account the banking sector's high marketfragmentation, low fee-income generation and intense competition for domestic business.

Notching ConsiderationsAffiliate SupportWe consider the likelihood of support from RBG, the Austrian Raiffeisen sector, to be very high owing to RLB Tirol's regionalimportance to the sector. This support materially reduces the probability of default, as the co-operative group cross-sector supportmechanism aims to stabilise its members by avoiding a bail-in or any form of loss-participation by creditors.



We assess the Austrian Raiffeisen sector's financial capacity to provide support to its members based on the co-operative group'scombined financial strength. Although their combined financial strength has recently stabilised, we still consider RBG's capitalisation asmoderate relative to its overall credit profile, which is strongly correlated with its higher-risk Central and Eastern European exposures,housed at RBI. The sector's limited support capacity implies a constraint to the possible uplift included in member banks' ratings.Member banks with BCAs of ba1 or higher therefore do not benefit, in terms of rating uplift, from our very high support assumption forthe group of Raiffeisenlandesbanken. Accordingly, RBG cross-sector support currently results in no rating uplift for RLB Tirol.

Loss Given FailureRLB Tirol is subject to the EU Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive, which we consider to be an Operational Resolution Regime.We assume residual tangible common equity of 3% and losses post-failure of 8% of tangible banking assets, a 25% run-off in “junior”wholesale deposits, a 5% run-off in preferred deposits, and assign a 25% probability to deposits being preferred to senior unsecureddebt. These metrics are in line with our standard assumptions.

RLB Tirol's senior obligations and deposits are likely to face very low loss-given-failure, resulting in two notches of rating uplift from thebaa3 adjusted BCA.

Government SupportIn contrast to banks in other EU countries and reflective of government measures in Austria implemented since 2014, we assign alow level of support for the senior debt and deposit ratings of Austrian banks. As a consequence, we do not include any beneficialrating impact for government support in RLB Tirol's issuer and deposit ratings, despite the strong national market shares and systemicrelevance of the Raiffeisen sector as a whole to the country's banking system.

About Moody's Bank ScorecardOur Scorecard is designed to capture, express and explain in summary form our Rating Committee's judgment. When read inconjunction with our research, a fulsome presentation of our judgment is expressed. As a result, the output of our Scorecardmay materially differ from that suggested by raw data alone (though it has been calibrated to avoid the frequent need for strongdivergence). The Scorecard output and the individual scores are discussed in rating committees and may be adjusted up or down toreflect conditions specific to each rated entity.



Rating Methodology and Scorecard Factors

Exhibit 3

Raiffeisen-Landesbank Tirol AGMacro FactorsWeighted Macro Profile Strong + 100%

Financial ProfileFactor Historic

RatioMacro

AdjustedScore

CreditTrend

Assigned Score Key driver #1 Key driver #2

SolvencyAsset RiskProblem Loans / Gross Loans 7.2% ba1 ← → ba3 Sector concentration Market risk

CapitalTCE / RWA 13.1% a2 ← → a3 Stress capital

resilienceProfitabilityNet Income / Tangible Assets 0.2% b1 ← → ba2 Expected trend

Combined Solvency Score baa3 baa3LiquidityFunding StructureMarket Funds / Tangible Banking Assets 67.3% caa1 ← → ba1 Market

funding qualityLiquid ResourcesLiquid Banking Assets / Tangible Banking Assets 63.6% aa2 ← → baa1 Intragroup

restrictionsAsset encumbrance

Combined Liquidity Score ba1 baa3Financial Profile baa3

Business Diversification 0Opacity and Complexity 0Corporate Behavior 0

Total Qualitative Adjustments 0Sovereign or Affiliate constraint: Aa1Scorecard Calculated BCA range baa2-ba1Assigned BCA baa3Affiliate Support notching --Adjusted BCA baa3

Balance Sheet in-scope(EUR million)

% in-scope at-failure(EUR million)

% at-failure

Other liabilities 4,086 55.0% 4,272 57.5%Deposits 1,817 24.5% 1,632 22.0%

Preferred deposits 1,345 18.1% 1,277 17.2%Junior Deposits 472 6.4% 354 4.8%

Senior unsecured bank debt 1,261 17.0% 1,261 17.0%Dated subordinated bank debt 36 0.5% 36 0.5%Equity 223 3.0% 223 3.0%Total Tangible Banking Assets 7,423 100% 7,423 100%



De jure waterfall De facto waterfall NotchingDebt classInstrumentvolume +

Subordination

Sub-ordination

Instrumentvolume +

Subordination

Sub-ordination

De jure De factoLGF

notchingguidance

versusBCA

AssignedLGF

notching

Additionalnotching

PreliminaryRating

Assessment

Counterparty Risk Assessment 25.2% 25.2% 25.2% 25.2% 3 3 3 3 0 a3 (cr)Deposits 25.2% 3.5% 25.2% 20.5% 2 3 2 2 0 baa1

Instrument class Loss GivenFailure notching

AdditionalNotching

Preliminary RatingAssessment

GovernmentSupport notching

Local CurrencyRating

ForeignCurrency

RatingCounterparty Risk Assessment 3 0 a3 (cr) 0 A3 (cr) --Deposits 2 0 baa1 0 Baa1 --Source: Moody's Financial Metrics

Ratings

Exhibit 4Category Moody's RatingRAIFFEISEN-LANDESBANK TIROL AG

Outlook StableBank Deposits -Dom Curr Baa1/P-2Baseline Credit Assessment baa3Adjusted Baseline Credit Assessment baa3Counterparty Risk Assessment A3(cr)/P-2(cr)Issuer Rating Baa1ST Issuer Rating P-2

Source: Moody's Investors Service



Endnotes1 The ratings refer to the bank's long-term deposit rating and outlook, and the long-term senior unsecured debt rating and outlook.

2 The ratings refer to the bank's long-term deposit rating and outlook, the long-term senior unsecured debt rating and outlook, and the baseline creditassessment.

3 The rating shown is the sovereign bond rating and outlook



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Contacts

Katharina BartenSr Vice President

Perrine BajolleAssociate Analyst

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