Raffaele's Barren Tree Tale

8/14/2019 Raffaele's Barren Tree Tale

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Murder in PerugiaMurder in Perugia


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In my prior comparison of a luminol print from the cottage and the bathmat footprint, I

identified characteristics in common between them. However, while those observations are

real, perhaps they arent the most important considerations as we compare the different

footprints, nor are they complete observations.How my observations could have been

more precise:

1. Not saturate the colours in thebathmat photo

I felt this would make it easier to

delineate the footprint; in fact, the

strongest colour visually swamped the

other colours: the lightest areas of thefootprint were washed into the bathmat.


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However, when I saw the Il Messaggeroimage of Raffaeles police footprint made

in custody, there was an obvious

difference with my observsations: his big

toe was neither long nor crooked, but

rather triangular

2. Take into acount the 3-dimensional

aspect of the bathmat and the impact of

its texture on the footprint





more precise:


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So lets try it again, taking measures to

be more precise. Later well incorporate

the new visuals as reported in Il

Messaggero.

Youll see that this presentation focuses

on comparing the newly available

footprint of Raffaele taken in custody,

with the bathmat footprint made in blood.

Ill save for a future presentation an

examination of the Luminol print.

2. Take into acount the 3-dimensional

aspect of the bathmat and the impact of

its texture on the footprint





more precise:

In particular, if before we

were looking at the

luminol and the bathmat

prints only from an

overall point-of-view of

their high-levelcharacteristics, lets now

descend to a very

detailed visualisation,

aided by the

measurements which we

now have available.


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Well need to pull out ourprecision measuring instrument () from last

autumns presentation on the 6 Luminol prints. The ruler is based on ILE

marker C for one of the visible shoeprints in the victims room.

All we have to do is to rotate it and extend it proportionally, in order to obtain a

measuring ruler in centimeters. We see that the floortiles used in the north wing ofthe cottage are 16 cm. in width.


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Lets confirm the tile width and calibrate our ruler on this grid, at 16cm. per tile width, on the bathroom footprint photo.

6 cm

12cm

18 cm


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Also, lets keep in mind as we advance the importance of the texture of the bathmat,and its 3 dimensional impact on the footprint.


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Lets zoom in on the bathmat photos, and the detailedscale of our ruler.

6 cm

12cm

18 cm

Now well try and compare

specific measurementsbetween the bathmatfootprint and Raffaelesfootprint as taken in custody.


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The first line we will draw will be the one from behind the ball of the foot to the pointbetween the big toe and the second toe.

I suggest we draw the line fromthe clearest end-point, whichwould be behind the ball of thefoot.

Lets the mark the line and stopwhen we get to the end point atthe front of the ball of the foot.

18


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Now lets measure this line and we get

6 cm

12 cm

18 cm

55 mm. Mmmmmmmmokay, thats fairly near the

police custody ball-of-the-foot

measurement of 57 mm.

Now, Ill accept it if someonesays that while the starting pointof the line is quite obvious, the

end point isnt necessarily clear.More on that later.


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I guess you call this our first test: are the measurements from Raffaeles police custodyfootprint approximately compatible with the bathmat footprint?

I think it would be imprudent toexclude the possibility.

Now, what about that big toe?

Last week I was thinking that itwas a crooked, elongated toe

S d f d


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Spend a few seconds

looking at this zoom of

the unenhanced bathmat

photo.

Specifically, try to follow

the limit of the footprintfrom behind the ball of

the foot, around to where

the big toe joins the foot,

then try to identify

exactly where the print of

the big toe reaches.Thats enough for now.

This isnt a trick request,

in fact its quite the

opposite. In my case Im

surprised with myself,that until now, I hadnt

tried such a simple

exercise on a zoom of

the photo.


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?

?

Ive marked with green

arrows where I think its

quite obvious that the

bloody footprint is in that

point.

Ive marked with pink

arrows where its clear

that the bloody footprint

doesnt reach.

Ive put a couple ofquestion marks on the

inside of the big toe,

where the limits of the

big toe are not exactly

clear.

Click back and forth a

few times between this

screen and the previous

one. Do we all agree on

these limits to this part ofthe footprint?

N l t t th t li it


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Now lets trace that limit

to the footprint.

This leaves a somewhat

different impression than

the crooked, elongated

toe.


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Now lets apply the bathmat imagewhich Rinaldi used for his

measurements.

Unfortunately, on the copy which we

have available from Il Messaggero,

only one of the measurements isreadable 50 mm from behind the

ball of the foot to the end of the

bloodstain between the big toe and

the 2nd toe. Rinaldi was more honest

than I (55 mm), as he stops his line

where the blood visibly ends.

(our photo wasnt as defined there)

6 cm

12cm

L t i d li k th h th i


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Lets summarise and click through the images:Rinaldis measurements on the bathmat



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Lets summarise and click through the images:Raffaeles police custody footprint



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Lets summarise and click through the images:Our lines and delimitation of big toe (its not crooked!)

Im not a forensic expert - Ill


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I m not a forensic expert - I llleave that to Dr. Rinaldi. Andwhile I dont feel in a position tosay definitely that that isRaffaeles footprint on thebathmat, I do believe that the

bathmat print is compatible withhis footprint. Minor differences,like the point of measurement forthe line between the big toe andthe 2nd toe, can be justified bythe texture of the bathmat, itsraised tufts, and the valley justat that point of measurement.


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Ms. Bongiorno - can I call you Giulia? - I assume you have a plan for this

CONCLUSION ( 1/3 )


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CONCLUSION ( 1/3 )

I dont have the details of Dr. Lorenzo Rinaldis expert forensic testimony to the court last May 9. But he has stated thatthere is a very close compatibility between the bathmat footprint made in blood, and the footprint taken of Raffaele incustody.

A close inspection of the bathmat photo reveals that the footprint there is not simply a foot with a crooked long big toe,but rather does coincide with the custody print, as we saw it published in Il Messaggero.

QUESTIONS:

Do Dr. Rinaldi's observations mean that those footprints are definitely Amanda's and Raffaele's?

Not in 100% irrefutable legal terms. However, the more points of correspondence which are identified between twofootprints, the more likely that footprints are made by the same foot. What's more, that consideration is multiplied if youhave similar positive results for footprints from not just one, but two persons who aren't sought out as unrelated,exogenous, coincidentally correct samples out of the 10 billion persons who make up humanity, but are in fact two

persons who are related (boyfriend - girlfriend) and who could fit into a scenario for being present in the cottagebetween 9 p.m. on 1 November 2007 and 10:30 a.m. the next morning in Perugia, Italy.

It may be argued that his evidence - or better said, his analysis - is flawed or that the results are due to the proverbialstatistical lottery. In any case, it would be imprudent for the jury to ignore Rinaldi's expert testimony relating to thefootprints, which we understand from press reports was well prepared, well presented, and stood up to the attempts todiscredit it by the defence legal teams (which is, of course, their job).

If the footprint evidence is true, does it mean that Amanda or Raffaele are guilty of murder or the other chargeswhich they face?

No, not by itself. A footprint does not a murderer make. However, if we are swayed by Rinaldis analysis (personally, Ihave to say that it seems quite convincing), we have to ask ourselves:

- what were they doing in the cottage, what did they do there, and at what times were they there during that night?

- why can't they tell us, or why haven't they told us the Truth? The Truth isn't just some of the truth, or a convenientlegal truth (protected by a suspect's right to lie), but the Whole Truth.

The use of a suspect's right to silence does not show he or she is guilty of anything in particular. But if one is innocentof charges, and in light of a certain weight of evidence being shown against you, it is probably best not to make use of

your right to silence, but - with the help of your legal advisors - lay out a logical and explicit defence strategy.

CONCLUSION ( 2/3 )


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CONCLUSION ( 2/3 )

I recently read an interesting article in The NY Times - Judging Honesty by Words, Not Fidgets, by Benedict Carey:

May 12, 2009

Before any interrogation, before the two-way mirrors or bargaining or good-cop, bad-cop routines, policeofficers investigating a crime have to make a very tricky determination: Is the person Im interviewing beinghonest, or spinning fairy tales? ....

Until recently, police departments have had little solid research to guide their instincts. But now forensicscientists have begun testing techniques they hope will give officers, interrogators and others a kind of honestyscreen, an improved method of sorting doctored stories from truthful ones ....

Kevin Colwell, a psychologist at Southern Connecticut State University, has advised police departments .... Hesays thatpeople concocting a story prepare a script that is tight and lacking in detail.

'Its like when your mom busted you as a kid, and you made really obvious mistakes,' Dr. Colwell said. 'Well,now youre working to avoid those.'

By contrast, people telling the truth have no script, and tend to recall more extraneous details and may even

make mistakes. They are sloppier ....

In several studies, Dr. Colwell and Dr. Hiscock-Anisman have reported one consistent difference: Peopletelling the truth tend to add 20 to 30 percent more external detail than do those who are lying. This is howmemory works, by association, Dr. Hiscock-Anisman said. If youre telling the truth, this mental reinstatement ofcontexts triggers more and more external details.

Not so if youve got a concocted story and youre sticking to it. Its the difference between a tree in fullflower in the summer and a barren stick in winter, said Dr. Charles Morgan ....

Will the Barren Tree of Truth to which we have been witness during the course of an autumn, a winter, a spring, asummer, another autumn, another winter, and another spring suddenly burst into bloom by the time this summer of2009 arrives? (Three weeks distant at the time of writing this).

I am not betting on it, but I hope and pray that that may occur.

Perhaps Raffaele and Amanda are not legally guilty of the trial charges against her (or perhaps she is ). But in anycase they are morally responsible to tell the Whole Truth, for many reasons, including - above all - the Kerchers right toknow everything possible about what happened to their daughter, and - in purely selfish terms - the viability of their ownreinsertion into the world on the day when they finally return to Seattle and Bari and they try to convince the general

public that they really did make every effort to support the investigation, respond to questions and help clarifyMerediths murder in any minor or major way which they could.

CONCLUSION ( 3/3 )
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/12/science/12lying.html?_r=1&th=&emc=th&pagewanted=allhttp://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/12/science/12lying.html?_r=1&th=&emc=th&pagewanted=all


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CONCLUSION ( 3/3 )

Its never too late to start working on redemption, but it does get more and more difficult to achieve as more timepasses.

Even Judge Heavey tells people to assume their responsibilities, regardless, as he says, of whether your actions areright or wrong (click to see his statement from 1995). Its clear that his apology in a 1995 legislative investigationreferred to moral responsibilities, and not just legal liability, as he was never found legally responsible for wrongdoing inthat case (the issue goes back to when he was a politician). I wish he had been as public and explicit in his apology to

Prosecutor Mignini for the unsupported accusations of illegal actions on the part of Italian justice officials that theAmerican judge made on Washington State Supreme Court official letterhead - as published by Anne Bremner on herwebsite (Anne has now left the link hanging by removing the document, but you can still find it on PMF), calling Heaveya member of the Friends of Amanda group.

Part of the problem, perhaps, is the energetic effort on the part of the respective groups of people who believe they aresupporting Raffaele and Amanda, who have turned their positions into an all or nothing bet. However, if they are trulyconcerned about their return and reinsertion into normal family and social activities - at whatever date - then they woulddo well to encourage Raffaele and Amanda to tell the Whole Truth. It will help them emotionally and give them theconfidence to state in the future that whatever happened, they have explained what they know about this case.

I personally find Raffaeles and Amandas "barren tree" explanations early in the investigation and subsequence silencerather distressing; it definitely does not contribute to the public being able to trust and believe that each of them wascompletely unaware of and separate from the occurrence of the crimes in the cottage on 1 November 2007

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Post Script:

In the name of complete disclosure, I should also quote the end of the above mentioned New York Times article

concerning police questioning, concerning the limits of the barren tree method of detecting truth or lies: This approach, as promising as it is, has limitations. It applies only to a person talking about what happenedduring a specific time not to individual facts, like, 'Did you see a red suitcase on the floor?' It may be poorlysuited, too, for someone who has been traumatized and is not interested in talking, Dr. Morgan said. And it is notlikely to flag the person who changes one small but crucial detail in a story 'Sure, I was there, I threw some

punches, but I know nothing about no knife' or, for that matter, the expert or pathological liar.' "

Raffaele's Barren Tree Tale

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