Radioecological Studies in Nordic Countries after the Chernobyl Accident
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Transcript of Radioecological Studies in Nordic Countries after the Chernobyl Accident
Radioecological Studies in Nordic Countries after the Chernobyl AccidentSven P. NielsenRadiation Research Division
22/03/2011SFREK, Stockholm2 Risø DTU, Technical University of Denmark
Chernobyl Accident, Saturday 26 April 1986• Radioactive fallout in Denmark first
recognised at Risø on the morning of Monday 28 April from gamma spectrometric analysis of routine grass sample showing fresh fission products
• Contact to colleagues confirmed similar findings in Sweden
• Meteorological data indicated origin east of Scandinavia
• Countrywide monitoring initiated in Denmark to obtain overview, inform authorities and public
• Arrival on 27 April of airborne radioactivity at Risø detected by outdoor ionization chamber logging readings over weekend (TMI inspired project with Japanese colleague)
Ionization Chamber outdoor at Risø
22/03/2011SFREK, Stockholm4 Risø DTU, Technical University of Denmark
Chernobyl Fallout in Denmark
131I in air (mBq m-3) Fallout by September 1986
22/03/2011SFREK, Stockholm5 Risø DTU, Technical University of Denmark
Tjernobyl Fallout in Europe, 137Cs
22/03/2011SFREK, Stockholm6 Risø DTU, Technical University of Denmark
Radioactivity in air (Risø, Haderslev og Allinge)
1.E-02
1.E-01
1.E+00
1.E+01
1.E+02
1.E+03
1.E+04
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
Konc
entr
ation
(µBq
/m3 )
År
Sr-90
Cs-137
Be-7
Pb-210
Cs-137(H)
Pb-210(H)
Cs-137(A)
Pb-210(A)
22/03/2011SFREK, Stockholm7 Risø DTU, Technical University of Denmark
90Sr and 137Cs in milk
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 201010
100
1000
10000
Bq Sr-90 (kg Ca)-1Bq Cs-137 (kg K)-1
Year
Nor
mal
ised
con
cent
ratio
n
22/03/2011SFREK, Stockholm8 Risø DTU, Technical University of Denmark
Cesium-137 in cereals
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 20100.01
0.1
1
10
100
BygHavreRugHvede
Year
Conc
entr
atiio
n (B
q/kg
)
22/03/2011SFREK, Stockholm10 Risø DTU, Technical University of Denmark
Cesium-137 in Danish food and Danes
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 201010
100
1000
10000
Kost Urin Mennesker
Year
Nor
mal
ised
con
cent
ratio
n (B
q/kg
K)
22/03/2011SFREK, Stockholm11 Risø DTU, Technical University of Denmark
Chernobyl Fallout in Nordic Countries
• Total direct input of Cs-137 to the Baltic Sea estimated at 4.7 PBq
• Activity ratio of Sr-90/Cs-137 in fallout about 2%
22/03/2011SFREK, Stockholm12 Risø DTU, Technical University of Denmark
22/03/2011SFREK, Stockholm13 Risø DTU, Technical University of Denmark
10° E 13° E12° E11° E
56° N
55° N
Kattegat-413
Langeland bælt
Femern bæltGedser odde
Øresund, N, A
Øresund, N, BHesselø Kullen
Kattegat SW
Asnæs rev
Halskov revØresund, S
Møen
Biannual seawater sampling
22/03/2011SFREK, Stockholm14 Risø DTU, Technical University of Denmark
90Sr in seawater around Zealand
22/03/2011SFREK, Stockholm15 Risø DTU, Technical University of Denmark
137Cs in seawater around Zealand
22/03/2011SFREK, Stockholm16 Risø DTU, Technical University of Denmark
Radioactive isotopes vs. salinity in Danish waters 2007
22/03/2011SFREK, Stockholm17 Risø DTU, Technical University of Denmark
Time series of 90Sr and 137Cs in Danish waters vs. salinity
90Sr
137Cs
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
S alin ity in ‰
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
137 C
s B
q m
-31 9 7 2
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
S alin ity in ‰
0
15
30
45
60
90S
r Bq
m-3
1 9 6 1
22/03/2011SFREK, Stockholm18 Risø DTU, Technical University of Denmark
Transuranics in Danish Waters November 2003
0
1
2
3
4
5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Salinity (‰)
Con
cent
ratio
n (m
Bq/
m³)
Pu-239Pu-240Np-237
Plutonium and neptunium in Danish waters vs. salinity
22/03/2011SFREK, Stockholm19 Risø DTU, Technical University of Denmark
I-129 in Danish Waters
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
5 15 25 35
Salinity (‰)
Conc
entra
tion
(Bq/
m³)
Nov-99
Jun-00
Dec-00
129I in Danish waters vs. salinity
22/03/2011SFREK, Stockholm20 Risø DTU, Technical University of Denmark
Cesium-137 in cod
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 20100.01
0.1
1
10
100
FærøerneGrønlandNordsøenKattegatØstersøen
Year
Conc
entr
atio
n (B
q/kg
fw
)
22/03/2011SFREK, Stockholm21 Risø DTU, Technical University of Denmark
EC Marina Balt Project 1996-1998• EC Marina Balt Project on an assessment of the radiological
exposure of man from radioactivity in the Baltic Sea• Two previous EC Marina Projects
– North European Waters (Marina, 1990)– Mediterranean Sea (Marina-Med, 1994)
• Expansion of EU in 1995 (Finland, Sweden and Austria)• Marina Balt Project starts in 1996 with participants from countries
around the Baltic Sea: Sweden, Finland, Russia, Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Germany, Denmark
22/03/2011SFREK, Stockholm22 Risø DTU, Technical University of Denmark
Assessment• Compartment model
used to predict radionuclide concentrations in seawater and biota
• Sources considered– Nuclear weapons
fallout– Chernobyl fallout– Discharges from
nuclear facilities
22/03/2011SFREK, Stockholm23 Risø DTU, Technical University of Denmark
Cs-137 in Baltic seawater
• Observed data from MORS HELCOM data base and other sources
1
10
100
1000
1 10 100 1000
Observed concentration (Bq/m³)
Pred
icte
d co
ncen
tratio
n (B
q/m
³)
22/03/2011SFREK, Stockholm25 Risø DTU, Technical University of Denmark
Doses to Critical Groups in the West Baltic
1.E-12
1.E-09
1.E-06
1.E-03
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
YEAR
Indi
vidu
al d
ose
rate
(Sv/
y)
ChernobylNuclear TestsReprocessingNPPResearchDumping
22/03/2011SFREK, Stockholm27 Risø DTU, Technical University of Denmark
Doses to Critical Groups in the West Baltic from NPP
1.E-15
1.E-14
1.E-13
1.E-12
1.E-11
1.E-10
1.E-09
1.E-08
1.E-07
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year
Indi
vidu
al d
ose
rate
(Sv/
y) 1:Barsebäck2:Forsmark3:Greifswald4:Ignalina5:Leningrad6:Loviisa7:Olkiluoto8:Oskarshamn9:Ringhals
1
2
9
46
7
3
5
8
22/03/2011SFREK, Stockholm28 Risø DTU, Technical University of Denmark
Maximum Doses to Critical Groups in the Baltic
Region Max. annual dose(mSv y-1)
Kattegat 0.04Belt Sea 0.09West Baltic 0.1East Baltic 0.05Bothnian Sea 0.2Bothnian Bay 0.06Gulf of Finland 0.2Gulf of Riga 0.04
22/03/2011SFREK, Stockholm29 Risø DTU, Technical University of Denmark
Collective Dose by Source
1.E-03
1.E-01
1.E+01
1.E+03
ChernobylFallout
Nuclear TestFallout
ReprocessingPlants
Nuclear PowerPlants
ResearchReactors
WasteDumping
SOURCE CATEGORY
MA
NSI
EVER
T
22/03/2011SFREK, Stockholm30 Risø DTU, Technical University of Denmark
Collective Dose by Country
1.E+00
1.E+01
1.E+02
1.E+03
Sweden
Finlan
d
Poland
Denmark
Russia
Latvi
a
German
y
Estonia
France
Lithu
ania
Netherl
ands Ita
ly
United
King
dom
Spain
Belgium
Portug
al
Greece
Irelan
d
COUNTRY
MA
NSI
EVER
T
22/03/2011SFREK, Stockholm31 Risø DTU, Technical University of Denmark
Collective Dose by Exposure Pathway
1.E+00
1.E+01
1.E+02
1.E+03
1.E+04
Fish ExternalRadiation
Inhalation Molluscs Crustaceans
EXPOSURE PATHWAY
MA
NSI
EVER
T
22/03/2011SFREK, Stockholm32 Risø DTU, Technical University of Denmark
Collective Dose by Radionuclide
1.E-12
1.E-09
1.E-06
1.E-03
1.E+00
1.E+03
NUCLIDE
MA
NSI
EVER
T
22/03/2011SFREK, Stockholm34 Risø DTU, Technical University of Denmark
NKS-B PARDNOR Project 2007-2010• Objectives: To address the need for recent and site-specific
data to be used in the underlying ECOSYS radioecology model of the ARGOS and RODOS decision support systems
• Examples:• Typical diets in the Nordic countries. ’Default’ dietary
information supplied with models like ECOSYS is often used uncritically, despite of warnings that it reflects location-specific conditions.
• Import fractions of food products. In a Nordic emergency situation it is important to know if food consumed is produced in the Nordic countries or imported from other areas.
• Animal feeding regimes. These differ from country to country and could significantly affect doses.
22/03/2011SFREK, Stockholm35 Risø DTU, Technical University of Denmark
Swedish ARGOS implementation
22/03/2011SFREK, Stockholm36 Risø DTU, Technical University of Denmark
Consumption of wheat and rye
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
DK-adults S-adults FI-adults N-adults D-adults
Cons
umpt
ion
(kg/
y)
Spring wheat, flour
Winter wheat, flour
Rye, flour
Comment: practically all Norwegian and Finnish wheat is spring wheat, whereas a very large fraction of the Danish and German wheat is winter wheat.
22/03/2011SFREK, Stockholm37 Risø DTU, Technical University of Denmark
Consumption of potatoes, leafy vegetables and root vegetables
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
DK-adults IS-adults S-adults FI-adults N-adults FA-adults D-adults
Cons
umpt
ion
(kg/
y)
Potatoes
Leafy vegetables
Root vegetables
22/03/2011SFREK, Stockholm38 Risø DTU, Technical University of Denmark
Consumption of beef and milk
0
50
100
150
200
250
DK-adults IS-adults S-adults FI-adults N-adults FA-adults D-adults
Cons
umpt
ion
(kg/
y)
BeefMilk
22/03/2011SFREK, Stockholm39 Risø DTU, Technical University of Denmark
Consumption of beer and milk
0
50
100
150
200
250
DK IS S FI N D
Cons
umpt
ion
(kg/
y)
Beer (adults)
Milk (young children)
22/03/2011SFREK, Stockholm40 Risø DTU, Technical University of Denmark
Consumption of brown and other cheese in Norway
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
N-young N-teenagers N-adults N-seniors
Cons
umpt
ion
(kg/
y)
Brown cheese
Other cheese
Brown cheese is made from goat’s milk whey, which is not included in ECOSYS. Transfer coefficients are needed.
22/03/2011SFREK, Stockholm41 Risø DTU, Technical University of Denmark
Gender differences between Danish adults
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Potatoes Leafyvegetables
Rootvegetables
Fruit Milk beef (cow) Beer
Cons
umpt
ion
(kg/
y)
f
m
22/03/2011SFREK, Stockholm42 Risø DTU, Technical University of Denmark
Nordic foodstuffs not included in ECOSYS diet table
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Reindeer Game Fish Wild berries Mushrooms
Consumption (kg/y)
N
FIDK
In Faroe Islands, whale meat and blubber (not considered in ECOSYS) constitute significant parts of the diet. Available Faroese data is old and uncertain.
22/03/2011SFREK, Stockholm43 Risø DTU, Technical University of Denmark
Impact on dose of using site-specific dietary information
Comparison of total doses for different countries
0,00E+00
1,00E-02
2,00E-02
3,00E-02
4,00E-02
5,00E-02
6,00E-02
7,00E-02
8,00E-02
9,00E-02
11-04-1986 31-05-1986 20-07-1986 08-09-1986 28-10-1986 17-12-1986 05-02-1987 27-03-1987 16-05-1987
Date
Dos
e (m
Sv) Norway
DenmarkFinlandSwedenGermany
22/03/2011SFREK, Stockholm44 Risø DTU, Technical University of Denmark
Percentage of foodstuffs produced within each country
Food N DK FI ISWheat 67 60 50 ~0Rye 40 86 15 ~0Potatoes 100 86 96 59Leafy vegetables
55¤ 75* 77# 33£
Berries 6 10¤ 69 ~0Milk 100 90 99 nButter 98 69 97 nCheese 93 63 66 nBeef 95¤ 88 86 nPork 95¤ 94 91 nLamb 95¤ 20 30 n
* Figure only valid for early June to mid-October; It is 0 the rest of the year.¤ Assumed values# Import of leafy vegetables is in Finland low in mid-June to September. £ For Iceland, only the fraction for total vegetables has been identified.
22/03/2011SFREK, Stockholm45 Risø DTU, Technical University of Denmark
Animal specific feeding rations
Differences between German and Danish data
Southern Germany Denmark Lactating cattle Hay until 10th May, grass until 9th Nov., hay
until 31st Dec. Maize silage (70 %), grass silage (30 %) all year.
Beef cattle 96 % maize silage, 2 % winter barley, 2 % winter wheat all year
Grass silage until 15th May, grass until 15th Oct, grass silage until 31st Dec.
Goats/sheep Hay until 10th May, grass until 9th Nov., hay until 31st Dec.
Hay/straw until 15th May, grass until 15th Sept., hay/straw until 31st Dec.
Pigs 50 % winter barley, 50 % winter wheat all year
90 % winter barley, 10 % soy flour all year.
Chickens/hens Winter wheat all year Winter wheat all year
Product Bq/kg after 6 months (D) Bq/kg after 6 months (DK) Cream 1.8 100 5.4 10-3
Butter 5.2 10-1 1.5 10-3
Beef (cow) 8.6 100 2.3 10-2
Example of ECOSYS run (137Cs dry deposition on 1st May)
22/03/2011SFREK, Stockholm46 Risø DTU, Technical University of Denmark
PARDNOR Conclusions• Data on Nordic diets has been compiled for application in foodchain
dose models different age groups: children (1-4 y); teenagers (<15 y); adults (ca. 30 y); senior adults (ca. 60 y)
• Considerable differences are found between Nordic diets, which can mean significant differences in dose for the same accident situation in different countries
• Very different fractions of important dietary components are produced locally in the different Nordic countries
• Differences in animal feeding regimes have been demonstrated to be important, depending on season
• Significant differences in crop development by season between Nordic countries
• Room for model improvement on important aspects (deposition on crops, soil and snow, weathering, leaching, fixation, soil types, transfer to milk and meat)