Radioecological sensitivity of the coastal marine regions...1994; IAEA-TECDOC-1330, 2003, Iosjpe et...
Transcript of Radioecological sensitivity of the coastal marine regions...1994; IAEA-TECDOC-1330, 2003, Iosjpe et...
Radioecological sensitivity of the coastal marine regions
Norwegian Radiation Protection Authority
ICRER 2011, 19-24 June 2011 Hamilton Canada
M. Iosjpe
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Environmental sensitivity of the marine regions
EMRAS II ProgrammeEnvironmental sensitivity working group
The environmental sensitivity has been considered as a dose to adults
Release scenario:
a single deposition of 1000 Bq/m2 of radionuclides in each marine region
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NRPA box model: schematic structure of the processes involved in modelling
Surface water
Deep water
Surface sediment
Deep sediment
Advection
Advection
Advection
Sedimentation
Sedimentation
Resuspension
Bioturbation Pore water diffusion
Burial
Radioactive decay
Radioactive decay
Radioactive decay
Seaweeds Fish Molluscs Crustacea
CFS CFF CFM
CFC
Doses to man and biota
Ice module
Freezing and melting processes
Middepth water
Advection
Advection
Bacteria Mammal DCF
Comparison of the contribution toindividual dose to man from seafoodingestion and external exposureindicates a clear domination of theingestion pathway (MARINA-Med EC,1994; IAEA-TECDOC-1330, 2003,Iosjpe et al., 2009)
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NRPA box model: equations of the transfer of radionuclides between the boxes (Iosjpe et al., 2009)
iiiiiij
n
jijjji
n
jji
i TtQAkATtkATtkdtdA
,)()(11
( ),,t T
TTi
i
i
10
t t
T wi v v M jkj km i i
min
( , ) , 0
Ai = 0, t < Ti
Non-nstantaneous mixing in oceanic space
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Model Corroboration (Iosjpe, 2006; Iosjpe et al., 2009 )
Years
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Con
cent
ratio
n in
sed
imen
t, B
q/kg
, d.w
.
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
EstimatedMeasured (Average)
Years
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Con
cent
ratio
n of
239 Pu
in s
edim
ent,
Bq/
kg, d
.w.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Years
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
99Tc
wat
er c
once
ntra
tion,
Bq
m-3
10
100
1000
10000
NRPA, 2002, 2006Average concentrationMinimal concentrationMaximal concentrationPresent version
Cumbrian Waters
Pu-239 Tc-99
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IAEA, 2004: sediment distribution coefficients Kd, andconcentration factors for fish (CFf), crustaceans (CFc),molluscs (CFm) and seaweeds (CFs)
137Cs 90Sr 131I 239Pu Kd 4000 8 70 100000 CFf 100 3 9 100 CFc 50 5 3 200 CFm 60 10 10 3000 CFs 50 10 10000 4000
Selected radionuclides
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Selected marine regions
CW
LB
NC
OB
S
GR
Cumbrian waters of the Irish Sea (CW)
Lyme Bay on the English Channel (LB)
North Sea of the Norwegian coasts (NC)
Skagerrak (S)
Gulf of Riga on the Baltic Sea (GR)
Ob Bay on the Kara Sea (OB)
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Name Volume, m3 Depth, m Surface area, m2
Irish Sea: Cumbrian Waters 3,80E+10 2,80E+01 1,36E+09
English Channel: Lyme Bay 2,01E+11 3,95E+01 5,09E+09
North Sea: Norwegian Current Surface 9,20E+12 1,56E+02 5,90E+10
Skagerrak 6,78E+12 2,10E+02 3,23E+10
Baltic Sea: Gulf of Riga 4,05E+11 2,30E+01 1,76E+10
Kara Sea: Ob Bay 3,19E+11 1,10E+01 2,90E+10
Selected marine regions
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ICRER 2011, 19-24 June 2011 Hamilton Canada
Selected marine regions: SSL (suspended sediment load) and SR (the mass sedimentation rate)
Name SSL t/m3 SR, t/m2/y Irish Sea: Cumbrian Waters 1,0E-05 6,0E-03 English Channel: Lyme Bay 3,0E-06 1,0E-04 North Sea: Norwegian Current Surface 6,6E-06 1,0E-04 Skagerrak 1,0E-06 5,0E-03 Baltic Sea: Gulf of Riga 1,0E-06 5,0E-04 Kara Sea: Ob Bay 5,0E-05 1,0E-03
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Seafood consumption (Smith & Jones, 2003) corresponds to results for the population of the coastal regions
Group 1 (adult) Group 2 (child) Group 3 (infant) Fish 51 10.2 2.5 Crustacean 17 2.25 0 Molluscs 14 3.5 0 Seaweeds 5 0 0
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Years
0,0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1,0 1,20,01
0,1
1
10
100Cs-137, Fish, OB Sr-90, cructaceans, S I-131, seaweeds, LBPu-239, molluscs, CW
Concentration of radionuclides in seafood, Bq/kg w.w.
CW
LB
NC
OB
S
GR
Radionuclides concentration in seafood
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Dose (Sv) for different age from 137Cs (Cumbrian Waters), and during different times from 239Pu for adult (Skagerrak).
137Cs Cumbrian Waters
Adult 10 y 1 y
Sv
0,0
2,0e-7
4,0e-7
6,0e-7
8,0e-7
1,0e-6
1,2e-6
1,4e-6
1,6e-6
1,8e-6
239PuSkagerrak
1st year 2nd year 10th year
Sv
0
1e-5
2e-5
3e-5
4e-5
5e-5
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131I
Fish Crustaceans Molluscs Seaweeds
Sv
1e-9
1e-8
1e-7
1e-6
1e-5
137Cs
Fish Crustaceans Molluscs Seaweeds
Sv
0,0
2,0e-7
4,0e-7
6,0e-7
8,0e-7
1,0e-6
1,2e-6
1,4e-6
90Sr
Fish Crustaceans Molluscs Seaweeds
Sv
0,0
2,0e-8
4,0e-8
6,0e-8
8,0e-8
1,0e-7
1,2e-7 239Pu
Fish Crusaceans Molluscs Seaweeds
Sv
0
5e-6
1e-5
2e-5
2e-5
3e-5
3e-5
Doses (Sv) from one year of consumption of I-131, Cs-137, Sr-90, and Pu-239 in fish, crustaceans, molluscs, and seaweed.
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Doses, Sv
0,0E+005,0E-07
1,0E-06
1,5E-06
2,0E-06
2,5E-06
3,0E-06
CW LB NC S GR OB
Cs-137
0E+00
1E-07
2E-07
3E-07
4E-07
5E-07
CW LB NC S GR OB
Sr-90
0E+00
2E-06
4E-06
6E-06
8E-06
1E-05
CW LB NC S GR OB
I-131
0E+00
2E-05
4E-05
6E-05
8E-05
1E-04
CW LB NC S GR OB
Pu-239
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Potential improvement: comparison of scenarios: releases in the local environments
0,0E+005,0E-071,0E-061,5E-062,0E-062,5E-063,0E-06
CW LB NC S GR OB
Cs-137
0,00E+00
2,00E-06
4,00E-06
6,00E-06
8,00E-06
1,00E-05
1,20E-05
CW LB NC S GR OB
I-131
0,00E+00
1,00E-07
2,00E-07
3,00E-07
4,00E-07
5,00E-07
6,00E-07
CW LB NC S GR OB
Sr-90
0,00E+00
2,00E-05
4,00E-05
6,00E-05
8,00E-05
1,00E-04
CW LB NC S GR OB
Pu-239
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Potential improvement: IMPACT OF ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT SEAFOOD CONSUMPTION
0,0E+00
5,0E-07
1,0E-06
1,5E-06
2,0E-06
CW NC
Cs-137
The green color corresponds to the results of dose calculations from Cs-137 release, where the same assumptions about the levels of seafood consumption for the population of the coastal regions, provided by Smith & Jones, (2003) have been used in all marine locations, while the red color corresponds to calculations where site specific information about average seafood consumption, provided by Smith & Jones, (2003) and by Bergsten (2003) have been used for the Cumbrian waters (CW) and for the Norwegian coastal waters (NC), respectively.
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PARAMETERS AND PROCESSES CONTROLLING THE VULNERABILITY OF THE MARINE REGIONS
)S(
0
0
P
)S()L(
VP
dPdV)P(S
0
The local sensitivity indexV(S) and P correspond to state variables (for example, doses to man) and parameters which are under evaluation; P0 and V0(S) correspond to the basic values of the parameter P and the state variable V(S). In the present paper the values for P0and V0(S) correspond to results provided by
PARAMETERSfl - maximum water exchange for the compartment SR - sedimentation rate SSL - suspended sediment load in water column RW - sediment reworking rateRT - pore-water turnover rate Kd - sediment distribution coefficient D - molecular diffusion coefficient CF - radionuclide concentration factors for seafood
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Results• Doses to adults for all selected radionuclides and marine
locations have low sensitivity to the molecular diffusion coefficient (D) and pore-water turnover rate (RT).
• Sr-90: sensitivity index is low for parameters describing water-sediment interactions
• I-131: only one parameter, namely the concentration factor for seaweeds, has a high sensitivity index value
• Doses to man are most sensitive to the process of bioaccumulation (parameter CF)
• Doses to man are sensitive to the process of the particle mixing (parameters Kd, Rw, SSL), but only for the radionuclides with relatively high sediment distribution coefficient (Pu-239, Cs-137)
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Absolute values of the local sensitivity index for the advection rates (fl).
Locations OB CW LB S GR NC 137Cs 0.26 0.10 0.06 0.21 0.10 0.22 90Sr 0.39 0.16 0.06 0.21 0.13 0.23 239Pu 0.11 0.02 0.04 0.12 0.00 0.15
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Absolute values of the local sensitivity index for sediment reworking rate (RW), sediment distribution coefficient (Kd), suspended sediment load in water column (SSL), sedimentation rate (SR).
OB CW LB S GR NC 137Cs Rw 0.19 0.11 0.06 0.08 0.17 0.07 239Pu Rw 0.33 0.23 0.39 0.28 0.33 0.18 137Cs Kd 0.21 0.22 0.06 0.09 0.21 0.07 239Pu Kd 0.07 0.27 0.36 0.20 0.37 0.13 239Pu SSL 0.39 0.13 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.00 239Pu SR 0.11 0.16 0.01 0.29 0.06 0.00
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Absolute values of the local sensitivity index for concentration factors for fish (CFf), crustaceans (CFc), molluscs (CFm) and seaweeds (CFs).
137Cs 90Sr 131I 239Pu CFf 0.72 0.36 0.01 0.07 CFc 0.12 0.20 0.00 0.05 CFm 0.12 0.33 0.00 0.60 CFs 0.04 0.12 0.99 0.28
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Potential improvement: evaluation of the key environmental parameters (Poster, ICRER2011 –sensitivity analysis of the model parameters, f. ex., CF, Kd, … )
)SSLk1(dhR
)SSLk1(hdD
)SSLk1(dkSR
kd
ST
dSd
dWS
)SSLk1(d
)1(kR
d
dW
)]1(k[h
)1(kR)1(k
R)]1(k[h
DkdS
dW
d
T
d2S
SW
)]1(k[hSRk
)]1(k[hDk
dS
d
d2S
SM
)]1(k[hhDk
dSMSMS
)]1(k[hSRkk
dSM
dMD
.
Water column
Surface sediment
Middle sediment
Deep sediment
kWS
kWS
kSM
kMS
kMD
Water-sediment interaction
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Definition of parameters is not a trivial task: concentrations (Iosjpe, 2011)
Years
0 1 2 3 4 5
238 Pu
con
cent
ratio
n in
wat
er a
nd s
edim
ent
1e-5
1e-4
1e-3
1e-2
1e-1
1e+0
1e+1
(A) surface water(B) surface water(A) bottom water (B) bottom water(A) surface sediment(B) surface sediment
Pu-238 bulk concentrations in surface water, bottom water and sediment compartments: (A) the basic scenario; (B) Kdincreased by a factor of 5, Rw decreased by a factor of 5, in comparison to (A). Results correspond to the southern part of the Norwegian Current.
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Years
0 20 40 60 80 100
238 Pu
bul
k co
ncen
trat
ion
in s
urfa
cese
dim
ent
1
10
Variant (A)Variant (B)
40 years
69 years
Practical results: half-life in sediment (Iosjpe, 2011)
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