RACING TO PROFIT CHELTENHAM 2016: TRENDS AND STATS...
Transcript of RACING TO PROFIT CHELTENHAM 2016: TRENDS AND STATS...
Copyright: Josh Wright 2016
RACING TO PROFIT
CHELTENHAM 2016: TRENDS AND STATS GUIDE
Hello,
Welcome and thank you for purchasing a copy of my trends and stats guide for this year’s Cheltenham Festival. I hope that it helps you enjoy this year’s racing more than ever before and with any luck helps you (and I!) in that constant battle against the old enemy.
Once I have explained a bit about the guide and my approach you will find the following:-
Trends and Stats for all 10 Festival Handicaps
Trends and Stats for 4 Bonus Races
Following the trends and stats I have highlighted what could be a ‘winning profile’. A top level look at all handicap hurdles and handicap chases, with the aim of finding
common stats/trends/patterns
Some trainer based micro angles/profiles for the handicaps.
How to use this guide…
As with all trends/stats guides that I produce, I present the stats as I have found them, for
you to interpret and follow as you see fit. We all have a different approach to racing and
how we analyse races, especially when using historical trends/stats as a starting point. You
may favour certain stats over others, for example. I have highlighted what may be a
‘winning profile’ as a starting point, but you may disagree! That ‘winning profile’ is very
much my subjective interpretation of the stats I have found. In general this profile does not
exclude any of the previous winners of that race and should help with shortlisting.
The other information is there for you to use as you see fit. You may wish to follow the
trainer micro systems/profiles systematically or use this information to help with your own
analysis.
I hope you enjoy this report and the Festival.
Thanks again,
Josh
Let’s get to it….
Copyright: Josh Wright 2016
First, what follows is the checklist that I use when analysing a ‘big race’. This is the format for all of the races that will follow in this guide. The list below is annotated to explain any
trends/stats that may be unclear.
Where a stats type/heading is not included in a certain race, you can assume that I attached
no significance to the stats I unearthed.
VIDEO: If you would like to watch an ‘over the shoulder’ video of how I use this checklist to analyse a big race, using Horse Race Base, you can do so HERE>>>. In this video I use the
Coral Cup as my example race.
***
CHECKLIST
TRENDS
Previous Place
The finishing position of the horse in its most recent race
Horse Age
The age of the horses
Days Since Run
The number of days past since the horse last ran on the racetrack
Horse Weight
The weight that the horse carried on its back during the race.
Horse Official Rating
The official British Horseracing Authority rating of the horse. The ‘OR’. (Official Rating)
Season Runs
The number of times the horse had ran this season, which this season started on the
26th April 2015.
Wins (Distance)
How many times had the horse won at the distance of the race in question? I rarely
use this stat as it isn’t that useful, but every now and then there are some interesting stats.
Maximum Distance Winners Had RUN Over
The furthest that the horse had ever run over. For example, in a 2m race you may find
that those horses that had ran over 24f or further in their career are 0/50, 0 places in
this race historically – I would suggest they may not have the pace for 2m if
connections have tried them over 3m or further. That may be an exaggeration but it
demonstrates this angle!
Maximum Distance Winners Had WON Over
Likewise, similar to above. The furthest the horse had ever won over in their career.
Copyright: Josh Wright 2016
Position In Market
The ordered position of the winners in the market. In some races, maybe not
Cheltenham, all the winners may have come from the top 3 in the market for
example. That can help narrow down a field, or give you a good steer as to where to
look!
Odds
The odds of the winners to Industry Starting Price
***
OTHER STATS
Miscellaneous 1
Origin of Horse
Great British Bred (GB – denoted in the Racing Post by a blank when looking at the
horse. If no symbol as below, assume they are GB bred)
Irish Bred (IRE)
French Bred (FR)
USA (USA)
German (GER)
New Zealand (NZ)
There are others, hopefully self-explanatory.
Headgear
The record of those wearing headgear, and the different types.
Weight (excl J-Claim)
The weight of the horse excluding the claim of the jockey. So, as it would appear on
the racecard, ignoring any jockey claim
Pos Wgts (ex Clm) –
The ordered position of weight carried by horse compared to competitors, excluding
jockey claims. Ie – the record of Top Weights, or Bottom Weights
‘The ‘Running’ Characteristics’
H (Horse) -Run (90 days)
How many times had the competitors run in the previous 90 days
H – Run (career)
How many career runs had the horse had, in total.
H- Run (Hncp/Non Hncp)
How many times had the horse run in this type of race – for the handicaps this will
refer to the number of runs a horse had had in handicaps.
H-Run (NH Race Type)
How many times had the horse run in this type of national hunt race type – Chase,
Hurdle or National Hunt Flat.
H- RUN (Hncp NH Race Type)
How many times had the horse run in this type of handicap national hunt race type –
so for a handicap chase, it will look at the record of the horse in handicap chases.
Copyright: Josh Wright 2016
H- Run (track)
How many times had the horse run at the track. (so, Cheltenham on this occassion)
H- Run (Track-NH Code)
How many times had the horse run at the track in this type of national hunt race
type. So, for a chase, how many times had the horse run in chases at Cheltenham.
H-Run (Fences)
For chases only. How many times had the horse run over these types of fences.
Cheltenham, as defined by HorseRaceBase are ‘very stiff fences’. They also define Haydock and Aintree’s Grand National fences as very stiff. So, this stat, if applicable, will look at the record of horses in chases over those fences. Given recent
modifications to many fences, in particular Aintree, this stats may well become less
relevant.
H-Run (Last Win)
How many times horse has run since last winning. This is useful to determine whether
typical winners of this race were generally ‘in form’. Ie, 18/18 had won at least once in their last two starts.
H-Run (Last Placing)
Likewise, how many times had a horse run since last placing? This will be places in
line with bookmakers’ rules. So, for a 5 runner race you have to be in the top 2 to place. 16 runner+ handicap would mean finishing 4th was placed, for example.
The ‘Winning’ Characteristics
H-Win (Career)
How many times had the horse won in their career to date.
H-Win (NH Race Type)
How many times had the horse won this type of national hunt race type.
H-Win (Hncp/Non)
How many times had the horse won in this type of handicap or non-handicap race
type. So, for the 10 handicaps I look at his will show the number of times a horse had
won in all handicaps they had run in.
H-Win (Hcap NH)
Horse wins in this type of handicap national hunt race type. So I a handicap hurdle,
like the Coral Cup, how many times had the horses won a handicap hurdle previously.
H-Win (Class)
How many times had the horse won in the class? For Horse Race Base they consider
G1,G2,G3,Listed as separate classes, rather than all as just Class 1s.
H-Win (Grp/Grd/Lst)
How many wins had the horse won in this type of class before. Only applies to those
races that are this class – so Graded or Listed. If the trends race is a C2 Handicap this
stat shows no results.
H-Win (Season)
Horse wins this season.
H-Win (Track)
H-Win (Track/NH Code)
H-Win (Festival)
Had the horses/winners won at the Cheltenham Festival previously?
Copyright: Josh Wright 2016
Miscellaneous 2
Best in Three Runs
The best finishing position of the horses in their previous three runs.
Best in Five Runs
The best finishing position of the horses in their previous five runs.
Class Move
The record of those moving in class from their last run. A move from a Grade 2 down
to a Grade 3, for example, counts as a move down of one class.
Distance Move
The record of those moving certain distances from their previous race.
Highest Class Run
What is the highest class the horses had ever run in?
Highest Class Win
What is the highest class that the horse had ever won at? For example this can
highlight whether previous Grade 1 winners have a decent or poor record in the race
concerned.
H-Places (NH Race type)
How many times had the horse placed in the national hunt race type concerned?
Horses ‘Last Race’ Characteristics
(LR)-last run – NH Race Type
What national hunt race type did they run in last time out (LTO) and how well did
they do. So, in a chase for example, we can see how well those performed that ran in
a hurdle race LTO.
(LR) Hcap/Non
Did they have their last run in a handicap or non-handicap, and their record?
(LR) Race Class (inc Irish)
What class did they run in LTO? Ie in some races, a C2 handicap say, those that ran in
C4 or below may have a very poor record.
(LR) Grp/Grd/Lst
The record of those that ran in a graded or listed level race LTO?
(LR) No. of Runners
How many runners competed in their last race, and what where their records. I
included this because most Festival races are large fields, and in particular I wanted
to see the record of those that may have ran in a small field race 2-5 runners say,
LTO. For some races this may be a negative. An interesting stat nonetheless.
(LR) Track
What track did they run at LTO?
Trainers (of interest)
The record of certain trainers. Like with all stats/headings I use my own
interpretation to decide who is included. In general I will list all those responsible for
winners, and then those that have had at least 10 runners without a win. Sometimes
I will include other trainers if I deem them a big name, ie a Willie Mullins being 0/8, 0
places or something.
Copyright: Josh Wright 2016
IMPORTANT: Please note that I use Horse Race Base for my analysis and my thanks goes to
Chris and his team for providing such a great piece of kit.
HRB does not take account of non UK/Irish form as far as I am aware. As such all those with
form abroad (mainly French) should be treated slightly differently. The relevant stats/trends
should be applied to their UK form and used with more discretion.
Copyright: Josh Wright 2016
CHELTENHAM TRENDS AND STATS ANALYSIS
DAY 1
Time Race Distance Type
13.30 The Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle Race 2m abt ½f Hurdle
14.10 The Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy Steeple Chase abt 2m Chase
14.50 The Ultima Business Solutions Handicap Steeple Chase 3m abt 1f Chase
15.30 The Stan James Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy 2m abt ½f Hurdle
16.10 The OLBG Mares’ Hurdle Race 2m abt 4f Hurdle
16.50 The National Hunt Steeple Chase Abt 4m Chase
17.30 The CHAPS Restaurants Barbados Novices’ Handicap Chase (0-140) 2m abt 4½f Chase
14.50: Grade 3 Handicap Chase
18 renewals since 1997
341 runners in that time, 67 placed horses
***
TRENDS
16/18 Top 6 Last Time Out (LTO)
16/233 runners, 47 places…89% winners, 68% runners, 70% placed horses
Fell LTO: 0/5, 0 places
PU LTO: 1/39, 7 places…5.5% winners, 11% runners, 10% places
18/18 Aged 7-11
11 or older: 1/53, 3 places…5.5% winners, 16% runners, 4.5% places 6 year olds: 0/20, 3 places
18/18 Ran 16-120 days ago
1-15 days: 0/32, 2 places
121 days or more: 0/17, 6 places…5% of runners, 9% or placed horses
18/18 Carried 11-10 or less
0/12, 2 places carried 11-11 or more
18/18 Rated OR 149 or below
0/31, 3 places rated OR 150 or more
Copyright: Josh Wright 2016
0/13, 1 place rated OR 126 or below
18/18 Had 2 or more Runs This Season
0 or 1 run this season only: 0/40, 9 places…12% runners, 13% placed horses
MARKET/ODDS
14/18 Top 8 in market
14/163 runners, 48 places…78% winners, 48% runners, 72% places
Nothing significant with odds, those priced 22/1 or over: 4/139…don’t be put off by the odds would be the overall message from that.
***
OTHER STATS
Miscellaneous 1
Origin of Horse
GB: 3/68, 13 places
IRE: 14/187, 41 places
FR: 1/70, 12 places
WEIGHT (Excluding Jockey Claims)
10-12 or less: 13/203, 37 places…72% winners…60% runners…55% places
11-7 or more: 1/42, 8 places…5.5% winners…12% runners…12% places 11-11 or more: 0/16, 2 places
ORDER IN THE WEIGHTS (Excluding Jockey Claims)
TOP 3 (including joint 3rd, Joint second etc):
o 1/61, 10 places…5.5% winners…18% winners…15% places
***
The ‘Running’ Profile of Winners…
Horse Runs In Career
3-20 : 15/203 runners, 50 places…83% winners…60% runners…75% places
27+ : 1/70, 6 places…5.5% winners…21% runners…9% places
0,1,2 : 0/13, 2 places.
Copyright: Josh Wright 2016
Horse Runs in Handicaps
0-11: 17/233, 56 places…94.5% winners…68% runners…84% places
12+ : 1/108, 11 places
16+ : 0/57, 4 places
Horse Runs in Chases
0-1 : 0/14, 2 places
2-14: 17/233 runners, 58 places…94.5% winners…68% runners…87% places
15+ : 1/94, 7 places…5.5% winners…28% runners…10% places
18+: 0/60, 2 places
Horse Runs in Handicap Chases
13 + : 0/48, 0 places
0-4 : 11/152, 38 places…61% winners…45% runners…57% places
5-12 : 7/141, 29 places…39% winners…41% runners…43% places
Horse Runs Track
7+ : 0/48, 3 places
Horse Runs Track (in Chases)
0 : 9/105, 25 places…50% winners…31% runners…37% places
6+ : 0/39, 0 places
***
The ‘Winning’ Characteristics of Winners
Horse Wins in Career
0 : 0/18, 2 places
10+ : 0/21, 1 place
Horse Wins in Handicaps
0,1,2: 17/233, 57 places…94.5% winners…68% runners…85% places
3+ : 1/108, 10 places..5.5% winners…32% runners…15% places
Horse Wins in Chases
0 : 0/23, 3 places
6+ : 0/31, 2 places
1-3: 16/208, 52 places…89% winners…61% runners…78% places
Copyright: Josh Wright 2016
4+5: 2/79, 10 places…11% winners…23% runners…15% places
Horse Wins in Handicap Chases
0-1 : 15/211 runners, 53 places…83% winners…62% runners…79% places
2 : 2/62, 9 places…11% winners…18% runners…13% places
3+ : 1/68, 5 places…5.5% winners…20% runners…7% places
Horse Wins Track in Chases
0 : 17/243 runners, 54 places…94.5% winners…71% runners…81% places
1 : 1/77, 11 places…5.5% winners…23% runners…16% places
2+ : 0/21, 2 places
***
Miscellaneous 2
Horses Best Position in last 3 runs
Top 3 (at least once): 16/273, 58 places…89% winners…80% runners…87% places
No Top 3 finish last 3 runs: 2/64, 8 places…11% winners…19% runners…12% places
Distance Move From previous Run
Up 4.5F or more: 0/29, 2 places
Horse Places in Chases
9 + : 0/64, 6 places
***
The Horses Last Run
TRACK (of interest)
Doncaster: 4/24, 8 places
Haydock: 3/43, 12 places
Cheltenham: 2/52, 11 places
Kempton: 1/39, 4 places
Sandown: 1/24, 4 places
Other with 1 win:
Wincanton/Gowran/Aintree/Uttoxeter/Warwick/Chepstow/Leopardstown
Newbury: 0/31, 3 places
Ascot: 0/16, 3 places
Copyright: Josh Wright 2016
***
TRAINERS (of interest)
Jonjo O’Neill: 3/17, 5 places
A King: 2/13, 3 places
1 Win each: Tizzard/Moffatt/Morrison/Bailey/D Pipe/Mulholland/Doumen/Roche/ N
Henderson/A J Martin
Miss Venetia Williams: 0/17, 1 place
P F Nicholls: 0/19, 4 places
Nigel Twiston-Davies: 0/23, 2 places
P J Hobbs: 0/10, 0 places
***
THE WINNING PROFILE?
OR 149 or below
2 or more runs this season
0-15 handicap runs
17 or fewer chase runs
12 or fewer handicap chase runs
6 or fewer runs at track
5 or fewer chase runs at track
1-5 or chase wins
8 or fewer places (inc wins) in chases
Copyright: Josh Wright 2016
17.30 Novices Handicap Chase
11 previous renewals since 2005
215 runners, 44 placed horses
***
TRENDS
Previous Place
10/11 Top 3 LTO
o 10/146 runners, 32 places…91% winners…68% runners…73% places
0/10, 0 places Fell/UR LTO
0/6, 0 places PU LTO
Horse Age
11/11 aged 8 or younger
o 0/23, 5 places aged 9 or older
10/11 aged 7 or younder
o 10/146 runners, 28 places…91% winners…68% runners…64% places
1/46, 10 places aged 8…9% winners…21% runners…23% places
Days Since Run
11/11 ran 16-60 days ago
o 11/159 runners, 37 places…100% winners…74% runners…84% places
0/20, 3 places ran 1-15 days ago
0/36, 4 places ran 61+ days ago
Horse Weight
10/11 carried 11-7 or less
o 1/42, 8 places carried more…9% winners…20% runners…18% places
o 1/36, 6 places carried 10-10 or less…9% winners…17% runners…14% places
Horse Official Rating
0/14, 1 place OR 143+
Position In Market
11/11 Top 10 in market
o 0/92, 10 places 11th or higher
Copyright: Josh Wright 2016
Odds
11/11…20/1 or shorter
o 0/79, 9 places 22/1+
***
OTHER STATS
Miscellaneous 1
Headgear
Blinkers: 0/20, 7 places
Weight (excl J-Claim)
11-12 / 12-0: 2/6, 2 places
The ‘Running’ Characteristics
H -Run (90 days)
0: 0/13, 0 places
H – Run (career)
1-6: 0/21, 2 places
H- Run (Hncp)
10/11 had 7 or fewer runs in all handicaps
o 8+ : 1/46, 8 places…9% winners…21% runners…18% places
H-Run (NH Race Type)
10/11 had 6 or fewer chase runs
o 7+ : 1/32, 6 places…9% winners…17% runners…14% places
H- RUN (Hncp Chases)
0: 6/102, 26 places
H- Run (track)
0: 2/79, 9 places
1: 8/68, 20 places
2: 1/34, 7 places
3+ : 0/36, 8 places
Copyright: Josh Wright 2016
H- Run (Track-CHASES)
0: 7/156, 28 places
1: 4/41, 13 places
H-Run (Last Placing)
1&2: 11/11 places on at least once of last two starts
o Placed Last Start: 10/196, 28 places
o Placed penultimate start: 1/46, 6 places
Did Not Place one of last two starts:
o 0/49, 10 places
The ‘Winning’ Characteristics
H-Win (Chases)
0-2: 10/11
o 3+ : 1/27, 3 places
H-Win (Season)
0-2: 10/180, 40 places…91% winners…84% runners…91% places
3+ : 1/35, 4 places
H-Win (Track)
0: 11/184, 38 places
1+ : 0/31, 6 places
Miscellaneous 2
Best In Three Runs
1st or 2nd: 11/195, 40 places
Not 1st or 2nd in any of last 3 starts: 0/20, 4 places
Highest Class Win
C2&3: 10/143, 30 places…91% winners…67% runners…68% places
Grade 1&2: 0/26, 3 places
Gr3: 1/9, 2 places
C4 or below: 0/24, 5 places
Copyright: Josh Wright 2016
Horses ‘Last Race’ Characteristics
(LR)-last run – NH Race Type
Hurdles: 0/16, 4 places
(LR) Grp/Grd/Lst
G1: 0/14, 1 place
G2: 2/27, 10 places
G3/Listed: 0/12, 2 places
Track LTO (of interest)
Cheltenham: 2/23, 5 places
Kempton: 2/25, 9 places
1 win each:
Wetherby/Leopardstown/Exeter/Hexham/Musselburgh/Doncaster/Folkestone
Ascot: 0/10, 2 places
Sandown: 0/9, 0 places
Wincanton: 0/9, 0 places
Newbury: 0/15, 1 place
Haydock: 0/9, 1 place
Trainers (of interest)
Ferdy Murphy: 2/6, 2 places (only trainer with 2 wins)
1 win each: T J Taffe/J R Fanshawe/ Kieran Burke/P Nicholls/P Hobbs/N
Henderson/M Bradstock/Jamie Snowden/Miss R Curtis
C Longsdon: 0/7, 1 place
Jonjo O’Neil: 0/10, 2 places
Miss V Williams: 0/12, 1 place
D Pipe: 0/7, 1 place
NTD: 0/7, 2 places
***
Copyright: Josh Wright 2016
THE WINNING PROFILE?
Aged 8 or younger
Ran 16-60 days ago
Top 10 in market
20/1 or shorter SP
7+ career runs
Placed on at least one of previous 2 starts
Previous win at track a slight negative
Had won above C4 level
***
Copyright: Josh Wright 2016
DAY 2
Time Race Distance Type
13.30 The Neptune Investment Management Novices’ Hurdle Race 2m abt 5f Hurdle
14.10 The RSA Steeple Chase 3m abt ½
f
Chase
14.50 The Coral Cup Hurdle (A Handicap Hurdle Race) 2m abt 5f Hurdle
15.30 The Betway Queen Mother Champion Steeple Chase Abt 2m Chase
16.10 The Glenfarclas Cross Country Steeple Chase 3m 6f Chase
16.50 The Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle Race 2m abt ½f Hurdle
17.30 The Weatherbys Champion Bumper (A Standard Open NH
Flat Race)
2m abt ½f Bumper
***
14.50 The Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle
18 previous renewals since 1997
483 runners, 72 placed horses
1 winner down as having ‘no run’ in Horse Race Base, most likely had no UK form.
***
TRENDS
Previous Place
14/17 (that ‘had run’) Top 6 LTO
o 14/359 runners, 61 places…78% winners…74% runners…85% places
o Fell LTO: 0/16, 1 place
o PU LTO: 0/7, 0 places
o 7th or worse: 3/119 runners, 10 places…17% winners…25% runners…14% places
Horse Age
18/18 Aged 5-9
o 10 yo+ : 0/31, 3 places
o 9yo: 1/43, 3 places…5.5% winners…9% runners…4% places
o 5-8: 17/409, 66 places…94.5% winners, 85% runners…92% places
Copyright: Josh Wright 2016
Days Since Run
17/17 (‘with a run’) ran 16-120 days ago
o 1-15 days: 0/37, 2 places
o 16-30 days: 2/160, 18 places
o 31-60 days: 11/182, 32 places
o 61-120 days: 4/78, 11 places
o 121+: 0/21, 8 places
31-120 days, 15/260 runners, 43 places…83% winners…54% runners…60% places
Season Runs
18/18 had 0-7 runs this season
o 8+ : 0/37, 3 places
Maximum Distance Winners Had RUN Over
17/17 RAN over max distance of 24.5 F
o 0/61, 2 places had RUN over 25f or further in career
Odds
17/17 priced 40/1 or shorter SP
o 50/1 + : 0/94, 2 places
OTHER STATS
Miscellaneous 1
Origin of Horse
GB: 3/121, 17 places
IRE: 7/230, 36 places
FR: 8/88, 14 places
USA: 0/24, 4 places
GER: 0/15, 1 place
Headgear
Cheekpieces: 0/19, 3 places
Blinkers: 0/48, 3 places
Visor: 2/21, 2 places
Hood: 0/9, 0 places
Copyright: Josh Wright 2016
Pos Wgts (ex Clm)
Clear Top Weight: 0/15, 3 places
‘The ‘Running’ Characteristics’
H- Run (Hncp)
14/18 had 0-6 handicap runs
o 14/264, 47 places…78% winners…55% runners…65% places
o 7+ : 4/219, 25 places…22% winners…45% runners…35% places
H-Run (NH Race Type)
15/18 had 0-9 Hurdle Runs
o 15/278, 46 places…83% winners…58% runners…64% places
o 10+ : 3/205, 26 places…17% winners…42% runners…36% places
H- RUN (Hncp NH Race Type)
15/18 had 0-5 handicap hurdle runs
o 15/333, 58 places…83% winners…69% runners…81% places
o 6+ : 3/150, 14 places…17% winners…31% runners…19% places
H- Run (track)
4+ runs: 0/64, 4 places
H- Run (Track-NH Code)
4+ runs: 0/47, 3 places
H-Run (Last Win)
15/16 of those with a previous win to name had WON at least once in previous 5
starts
o 1/121, 12 places had not
Copyright: Josh Wright 2016
The ‘Winning’ Characteristics
H-Win (Career)
18/18 had 0-5 career wins
o 6+ : 0/105, 15 places
H-Win (NH Race Type)
18/18 had 0-4 hurdle wins
o 5+ : 0/51, 7 places
H-Win (Hncp)
18/18 had 0-2 handicap wins
o 3+ : 0/103, 12 places
H-Win (Hcap NH)
18/18 had 0-2 handicap hurdle wins
o 3+ : 0/54, 6 places
H-Win (Grp/Grd/Lst)
1+ win listed/graded level: 0/37, 7 places
H-Win (Season)
18/18 had 0-2 wins this season
o 3+ : 0/57, 8 places
H-Win (Festival) – Just for Cheltenham
1+ : 0/21, 3 places
Miscellaneous 2
Distance Move
Dropping down 1f or more: 2/117, 12 places…11% winners…24% runners…17% places
Highest Class Win
Those who had only won up to, and including C4: 0/66, 8 places
Copyright: Josh Wright 2016
Horses ‘Last Race’ Characteristics
(LR) Race Class (inc Irish)
C4,5,6 LTO : 0/67, 7 places
Track LTO (of interest)
Newbury: 2/50, 9 places
Fairyhouse: 2/10, 3 places
Ffos Las: 2/5, 2 places
Kempton: 2/40, 6 places
Haydock: 2/26, 4 places
One win each: Thurles / Doncaster/Uttox/Leop/Ayr/Leic/Ascot
Navan: 0/13, 2 places
Fontwell: 0/22, 2 places
Wincanton: 0/21, 1 place
Cheltenham: 0/39, 7 places
Punch: 0/13, 3 places
Sandown: 0/38, 4 places
Trainers (of interest)
N Henderson: 2/40, 4 places
P Hobbs: 2/23, 4 places
M Pipe: 2/46, 4 places
1 win each: Miss V Williams/A J Martin/D McCain Jnr / A King / P Nicholls/F
Murphy/T J Taffe/Dr R Newland/E J O Grady / G Elliot / C Roche
D Pipe: 0/16, 2 places
Nick Williams: 0/4, 2 places
Jonjo O’Neill: 0/14, 5 places
W Mullins: 0/15, 2 places
N Meade: 0/11, 2 places
NTD: 0/11, 1 place
***
Copyright: Josh Wright 2016
THE WINNING PROFILE?
Aged 5-9
Ran 16-120 Days Ago (places for 121+ days is strong though)
0-7 runs this season
Horse had NEVER RAN over 25f or further
NOT USA of German (GER) Bred
0-3 previous rRuns at Cheltenham Only
0-5 career wins ONLY
0-4 hurdle wins ONLY
0-2 handicap wins ONLY
Horse had WON above Class 4
Ran at Class 3 or higher Last Time Out (LTO)
***
16.50 The Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle Race
New race in 2005: 11 previous renewals
257 runners, 44 placed horses
***
TRENDS
Previous Place
11/11 Top 7 LTO
o 7th or worse: 0/22, 3 places
Days Since Run
11/11 ran 1-60 days ago
o 61+ : 0/32, 5 places
o 1-30 days: 9/134, 24 places…82% winners…52% runners..55% places
o 31-60 days: 2/91, 15 places…18% winners…35% runners…34% places
Horse Weight
10/11 carried 11-4 or less
o 11-5 + : 1/48, 10 places…9% winners…19% runners…23% places
Copyright: Josh Wright 2016
Horse Official Rating
10/11 OR 124-133
o 10/144, 28 places…91% winners…56% runners…64% places
o OR 109-123: 1/68, 6 places…9% winners…26% runners…14% places
o OR 134+ : 0/45, 10 places…18% runners…23% places
Season Runs
11/11 1-5 runs this season
o 6+ : 0/29, 2 places
o 1-3: 9/136, 28 places…82% winners…54% runners…64% places
o 4-5: 2/88, 13 places…18% winners…34% runners…30% places
Odds
11/11 priced 40/1 or below
o 50/1 + : 0/55, 2 places
***
OTHER STATS
Miscellaneous 1
Origin of Horse
GB: 1/53, 8 places
IRE: 5/101, 12 places
FR: 5/80, 20 places
USA: 0/14, 2 places
GER: 0/8, 2 places
Pos Wgts (ex Clm)
Clear/Joint Top Weight: 0/12, 4 places
Clear Bottom/Joint bottom: 0/19, 1 place
‘The ‘Running’ Characteristics’
H – Run (career)
15+ career runs: 0/37, 3 places
H- Run (Hncp)
7+ handicap runs: 0/37, 4 places
Copyright: Josh Wright 2016
H-Run (NH Race Type)
9/11 had 1-3 hurdle runs
o 9/138, 28 places…82% winners..54% runners…64% places
o 4+5 : 2/86, 13 places…18% winners…33% runners…30% places
o 6+ : 0/29, 2 places
H- Run (track)
11/11 No previous run at track
o 1+ : 0/49, 6 places
The ‘Winning’ Characteristics
H-Win (Career)
0 career wins: 0/40, 7 places
H-Win (Hncp)
11/11 0 or 1 handicap win in career
o 2+ : 0/21, 5 places
Miscellaneous 2
Best In Three Runs
10/11 1st or 2nd on at least one of previous 3 starts
o 1st: 9/174, 33 places
o 2nd : 1/49, 6 places
o NOT Top 2: 1/30, 4 places
Best In Five Runs
11/11 1st or 2nd on at least one of previous 5 starts
o NOT Top 2: 0/21, 3 places
Class Move
Dropping 2 classes: 0/15, 2 places (Gr1 to G3 would be a drop of two, for example)
Highest Class Win
Yet to win above C5: 0/35, 5 places
Copyright: Josh Wright 2016
Horses ‘Last Race’ Characteristics
(LR)-last run – NH Race Type/Race Code
All-Weather LTO: 0/12, 1 place
(LR) Hcap/Non
10/11 ran in a non-handicap LTO
o Handicap LTO: 1/38, 8 places
(LR) Race Class (inc Irish)
Class 5 or 6: 0/30, 3 places
(LR) No. of Runners
5 or fewer: 0/16, 2 places
First Ever Career Run
On All-Weather: 0/26, 2 places
11/11 Top 6 on first ever start
o 7th or worse: 0/81, 8 places
Track LTO (of interest)
Leopardstown: 2/21, 4 places
Sandown: 2/20, 4 places
1 win each: Southwell/Fairyhouse/Kempton/Folkestone/Exeter/Taunt/Haydock
Gowran: 0/10, 1 place
Cheltenham: 0/10, 1 place
Newbury: 0/11, 4 places
Huntingdon: 0/11, 2 places
Copyright: Josh Wright 2016
Trainers (of interest)
P Nicholls: 2/16, 7 places (only multiple winner)
1 win each: M Quinlan/E Lavelle/A Moore/C Egerton/T D Easterby/G Elliot/N
Henderson/P Nolan/D Pipe
G L Moore: 0/9, 2 places
Jonjo O’Neill: 0/8, 1 place
Miss V Williams: 0/8, 0 places
P Hobbs: 0/8, 0 places
A King: 0/17, 5 places
W Mullins: 0/11, 0 places
***
THE WINNING PROFILE?
Top 7 LTO
Ran 1-60 days ago
1-5 runs this season
Mark up those with OR 124-133
Not bottom or joint bottom weight (top weights also a negative)
14 or fewer career runs
6 or fewer handicap runs
1-5 hurdle runs
A previous run at the track is a negative
0-1 handicap win
Top 2 on at least one of previous 5 runs
Had won above C5
Raced above class 5 LTO
Top 6 on first ever career start a positive
***
Copyright: Josh Wright 2016
DAY 3
Time Race Distance Type
13.30 The JLT Novices’ Chase 2m abt 4f Chase
14.10 The Pertemps Network Final (A Handicap Hurdle Race) Abt 3m Hurdle
14.50 The Ryanair Steeple Chase 2m abt 5f Chase
15.30 The Ladbrokes World Hurdle Race abt 3m Hurdle
16.10 The Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate (A Handicap Steeple Chase) 2m abt 5f Chase
16.50 The Trull House Stud Mares Novices’ Hurdle 2m abt 1f Hurdle
17.30 The Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Handicap Steeple Chase (0-145) 3m abt 2f Chase
***
14.10 The Pertemps Network Final (A Handicap Hurdle Race)
18 previous renewals
425 runners, 72 placed horses
TRENDS
Previous Place
9/18 1st LTO
o 9/78, 23 places…50% winners…18% runners…32% places
o Fell: 0/4, 0 places
o PU: 0/19, 0 places
Horse Age
18/18 Aged 6-10
o 5 : 0/38, 9 places
o 11+ : 0/25, 2 places
Days Since Run
18/18 Ran 8-90 Days ago
o 1-7 days: 0/3, 0 places
o 91+ : 0/28, 5 places
Season Runs
8+ : 0/27, 4 places
Copyright: Josh Wright 2016
Odds/market
nothing of note, winners at all prices.
***
OTHER STATS
Miscellaneous 1
Origin of Horse
GB: 7/132, 21 places
IRE: 11/198, 37 places
FR: 0/69, 12 places
USA: 0/12, 1 place
GER: 0/10, 1 place
Pos Wgts (ex Clm)
Bottom/joint bottom weights: 1/79, 8 places…5.5% winners…
‘The ‘Running’ Characteristics’
H (Horse) -Run (90 days)
0: 0/28, 5 places
H – Run (career)
0-4: 1/47, 7 places
H-Run (NH Race Type)
0-4 hurdle runs: 1/64, 8 places…5.5% winners…15% runners…11% places
H- RUN (Hncp NH Race Type)
Between 5-11 handicap hurdle runs: 0/180, 23 places…42% runners…32% places
Copyright: Josh Wright 2016
The ‘Winning’ Characteristics
H-Win (Career)
0: 0/33, 3 places
H-Win (NH Race Type)
0: 0/41, 3 places
6+ : 0/27, 3 places
H-Win (Hncp/Non)
5+ : 0/43, 2 places
Horses ‘Last Race’ Characteristics
Track LTO
Haydock: 3/94, 15 places
Donc: 2/8, 2 places
Kempton: 2/19, 5 places
Warwick: 2/24, 3 places
Sandown: 2/32, 6 places
1 win each: Leop/Exeter/Newbury/Punch/Clonmel/Ayr/Chepstow
Uttox: 0/10, 2 places
Ascot: 0/16, 3 places
Cheltenham: 0/33, 3 places
Wincanton: 0/24, 2 places
Trainers (of interest)
Jonjo O’Neill: 3/30, 5 places
D Pipe: 2/21, 5 places
NTD: 2/20, 5 places
1 win each: N Henderson/L Lungo/D Arbuthnot/M Jefferson/J L Hasset/P J
Hobbs/Miss V Williams
A King: 0/11, 3 places
P Nicholls: 0/11, 3 places
Copyright: Josh Wright 2016
***
THE WINNING PROFILE?
Not PU LTO
Aged 6-10
7 or fewer seasons runs
GB or Irish Bred a big positive
Those with 5-11 handicap hurdle runs to name have poor record
1-5 hurdle wins a positive
4 or fewer handicap wins
***
16.10 The Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate (A Handicap Steeple Chase)
18 previous renewals
367 runners, 70 placed horses
TRENDS
Previous Place
15/18 Top 7 LTO
o 15/269 runners, 57 places…83% winners…73% runners…81% places
o PU: 2/34, 4 places
o Fell: 0/10, 1 place
o 8th or worse (completed): 1/42, 6 places…5.5% winners…11% runners…9% places
Horse Age
Nothing significant. Spread of winners from 5-11
o 12+: 0/12, 2 places
Days Since Run
Nothing overly significant
o 121-365 days: 0/11, 0 places
Copyright: Josh Wright 2016
Horse Weight
15/18 carried 10-11 or less
o 15/219 runners, 41 places…83% winners…60% runners…59% places
o 10-12- 11-3: 2/82, 21 places…11% winners…22% runners…30% places
o 11-4+ : 1/66, 8 places…5.5% winners…18% runners…11% places
o 11-12: 0/14, 3 places
Horse Official Rating
16/18 OR 128-141
o 16/221, 48 places…89% winners…60% runners…69% runners
o OR 127<: 0/36, 4 places
o OR 142-147: 2/68,12 places…11% winners…19% runners…17% places
o OR 148+: 0/42, 6 places
Season Runs
18/18 0-7 runs this season
o 8+: 0/34, 3 places
Maximum Distance Winners Had RUN Over
26.5f or further: 1/50, 7 places…5.5% runners…14% runners…10% places
Maximum Distance Winners Had WON Over
17/18 had won over no further than 22f. (2m6f)
o 22.5f or further: 1/63, 11 places…5.5% winners…17% runners…16% places
Position In Market
Nothing of note
Odds
12/1 or shorter: 6/107, 34 places…33% winners…29% runners…49% places
14/1 or bigger: 12/260, 36 places…67% winners…71% runners…51% places
***
Copyright: Josh Wright 2016
OTHER STATS
Miscellaneous 1
Origin of Horse
GB: 7/107, 20 places
IRE: 4/143, 26 places
FR: 7/109, 24 places
Other: 0/12, 0 places
Weight (excl J-Claim)
11-8+ : 0/43, 5 places
Pos Wgts (ex Clm)
Top 4 in weights (inc joint weights): 0/78, 13 places…21% runners…19% places
‘The ‘Running’ Characteristics’
H -Run (90 days)
1 run only: 0/102, 13 places…28% runners…19% places
o 0 runs: 3/40, 6 places
o 2-4 : 15/214, 48 places…83% winners…66% runners…69% places
o 4+ : 0/11, 3 places
H-Run (NH Race Type)
0-1: 0/13, 3 places
17+ chase runs: 1/85, 12 places…5.5% winners…23% runners…17% places
H- RUN (Hncp NH Race Type)
16+ handicap chase runs: 0/37, 3 places
H- Run (track)
5+ track runs: 0/77, 12 places…21% runners…17% places
H- Run (Track-NH Code)
5+ chase runs at track: 0/50, 8 places…14% runners…11% places
Copyright: Josh Wright 2016
H-Run (Fences)
0 runs: 1/98, 16 places…5.5% winners…27% runners…23% places
H-Run (Last Placing)
16/18 placed on at least one of previous 3 starts
o 16/284, 57 places…89% winners…77% runners…81% places
The ‘Winning’ Characteristics
H-Win (Track)
2+: 0/26, 6 places
H-Win (Track/NH Code)
2+ : 0/18, 3 places
Miscellaneous 2
Best In Three Runs
17/18 finished 1st,2nd or 3rd on at least one of previous 3 starts
o 17/301, 63 places…94% winners…82% runners…90% places
o Not Top 3: 1/66, 7 places
Class Move
Dropping in class from last run: 0/43, 7 places
Distance Move
11/18 ran at same distance or max up 1f from last run
o 11/168, 34 places…61% winners…46% runners…49% places
o Down 3f or more: 1/74, 14 places
o Up 2f or more: 2/68, 11 places
Highest Class Win
Grade 1: 0/28, 3 places
C4 or lower: 0/17, 4 places
H-Places (NH Race type)
8+: 1/89, 12 places…5.5% winners…24% runners…17% places
11+: 0/35, 4 places
Copyright: Josh Wright 2016
Horses ‘Last Race’ Characteristics
(LR)- NH Race Type
Hurdle: 0/27, 5 places
(LR) Grp/Grd/Lst
G1: 0/19, 2 places
G2: 0/36, 5 places
Listed: 0/24, 3 places
Track (of interest)
Chelt: 3/57, 11 places
2 each: Uttox/Lingfield/Chep/Sand
1 each: Font/Weth/Leic/Warw/Hayd/Newbury (1/45,6 places)/Winc
Ascot: 0/23, 2 places
Kempton: 0/52, 7 places
Leop: 0/10, 1 place
Donc: 0/16, 4 places
Trainers (of interest)
M Pipe: 4/28, 6 places
D Pipe: 3/20, 5 places
M Venetia Williams: 3/21, 8 places
N Henderson: 2/31, 6 places
1 win each: R Lee/P R Rodford/K C Bailey/H D Daly/Mrs S J Smith/G L Moore
P Hobbs: 0/15, 2 places
Jonjo O’Neill: 0/15, 4 places
NTD: 0/10, 2 places
P Nicholls: 0/24, 2 places
A King: 0/11, 0 places
W Mullins: 0/5, 1 place
***
Copyright: Josh Wright 2016
THE WINNING PROFILE?
OR 128-147
0-7 runs this season
11-7 or less on back (excluding jockey claims)
Top 4 in weights (inc joint weights) a negative
1 run only previous 90 days a negative
15 or fewer handicap chase runs
4 or fewer track runs
Dropping in class a negative
Previous G1 winners have a poor record
11+ places in chases a negative (will include wins)
***
17.30 The Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Handicap Steeple Chase (0-145)
18 renewals
397 runners, 70 places
TRENDS
Last Race Position
Nothing too significant
o PU: 3/41, 6 places
o Fell: 0/15, 1 place
o UR: 0/12, 0 places
Horse Age
17/18 Aged 7-10
o 17/313, 59 places…94% winners…79% winners…84% places
o 5-6: 0/23, 5 places
o 11+: 1/61, 6 places
Days Since Run
Nothing much of note
o 365+: 0/8, 0 places
Horse Weight
Noting significant
Copyright: Josh Wright 2016
Horse Official Rating
OR 129-133: 0/106, 11 places…27% runners…16% places
Season Runs
9+: 0/19, 3 places
Position In Market
Nothing significant
Odds
18/18 40/1 or under
o 50/1+ : 0/43, 1 place
***
OTHER STATS
Miscellaneous 1
Origin of Horse
GB: 6/86, 17 places
IRE: 9/220, 38 places
FR: 2/75, 11 places
USA: 1/11, 3 places
Weight (excl J-Claim)
10-4 – 10-10: 0/57, 8 places
‘The ‘Running’ Characteristics’
H – Run (career)
31+: 1/65,12 places…5.5% winners…16% runners…17% places
H- Run (Hncp)
0: 0/10, 4 places
21+: 1/49, 7 places…5.5% winners…12% runners…10% places
Copyright: Josh Wright 2016
H- RUN (Hncp NH Race Type)
0 handicap chase runs: 0/27, 8 places
20+: 0/22, 1 place
H-Run (Last Placing)
No place in last 5 runs: 0/25, 1 place
The ‘Winning’ Characteristics
H-Win (Career)
15/18 had 0-5 career wins
o 15/294 runners,54 places…83% winners…74% runners…77% places
H-Win (NH Race Type)
4+ chase wins: 2/95,12 places…11% winners…24% runners…17% places
H-Win (Hcap NH)
17/18 Had 0-2 handicap chase wins
o 3+: 1/83, 7 places…5.5% winners…21% runners…10% places
H-Win (Class)
2+ class wins: 0/26, 3 places
H-Win (Track)
2+ track wins: 0/23, 1 place
H-Win (Track/NH Code)
2+ track chase wins: 0/15, 0 places
H-Win (Festival) – Just for Cheltenham
1 Cheltenham Festival Win: 0/18, 2 places
Copyright: Josh Wright 2016
Miscellaneous 2
Best In Five Runs
18/18 finished Top 3 in at least one of previous 5 runs
o Did Not: 0/30, 1 place
Distance Move
Up 2f or more from last run: 1/116, 13 places…5.5% winners…29% runners…19% places
H-Places (NH Race type)
0: 0/17, 0 places
12+: 0/19, 1 place
Horses ‘Last Race’ Characteristics
(LR) Hcap/Non
Non Handicap LTO: 0/65, 12 places…16% runners…17% places
(LR) Race Class (inc Irish)
C5/6: 0/15, 3 places
(LR) Grp/Grd/Lst
G1: 0/12, 2 places
G2: 1/27, 9 places
Listed: 0/27, 5 places
(LR) No. of Runners
4 or 5 runners LTO: 0/37, 4 places (none have run with fewer than 4 to date)
Track (of interest)
Haydock: 3/33, 5 places
Kempton: 2/28, 7 places
1 win each:
Muss/Ayr/Sand/Hunt/Chelt/Faken/Donc/Newb/Newc/Warw/Lud/Aint/Leop
Gowran: 0/10, 3 places
Ascot: 0/15, 1 place
Wincanton: 0/12, 1 place
Chepstow: 0/15, 1 place
Copyright: Josh Wright 2016
Trainers (of interest)
N Henderson: 2/17, 5 places
M Pipe: 2/29, 6 places
D Pipe: 2/22, 4 places
D McCain Jnr: 2/10, 3 places
1 win each: JJ Quinn/S Gollings/E Williams/NTD/Jonjo O’Neill/J Culloty
P Hobbs: 0/13, 3 places
P Nicholls: 0/16, 1 place
T George: 0/11, 1 place
Miss V Williams: 0/19, 3 places
***
THE WINNING PROFILE?
OR 129-133 a negative
10-4 to 10-10 a negative
Horse finished top 3 on at least one of previous 5 runs
19 or fewer handicap chase runs
2 or more wins at the class a negative
Ran in a handicap LTO
Running in a race with 5 or fewer runners a negative
***
Copyright: Josh Wright 2016
DAY 4
Time Race Distance Type
13.30 The JCB Triumph Hurdle 2m abt 1f Hurdle
14.10 The Vincent O’Brien County Handicap Hurdle Race 2m abt 1f Hurdle
14.50 The Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle Race abt 3m Hurdle
15.30 The Timico Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Chase 3m abt 2½ f Chase
16.10 The St. James’s Place Foxhunter Steeple Chase Challenge Cup 3m abt 2½ f Chase
16.50 The Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle Race 2m abt 4½ f Hurdle
17.30 The Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Steeple Chase 2m abt ½ f Chase
***
14.10 The Vincent O’Brien County Handicap Hurdle Race
18 renewals
464 runners, 72 places horses
***
TRENDS
Previous Place
12/18 Top 4 LTO
o 12/238 runners, 37 places…67% winners…51% runners…51% places
o Fell: 0/14, 2 places
o PU: 1/18, 1 place
Horse Age
18/18 Aged 5-9
o 10+: 0/21, 3 places
o 5 or 6: 13/112, 23 places…72% winners…24% runners…32% places
Days Since Run
18/18 ran 1-120 days ago
o 121+ : 0/34, 2 places
Horse Weight
9-13<: 0/38, 2 places
11-9 +: 0/21, 2 places
Copyright: Josh Wright 2016
Horse Official Rating
OR 127<: 0/58, 8 places
Maximum Distance Winners Had RUN Over
22.5F or further (2m6.5f+): 0/41, 2 place
Odds
16/18 priced 20/1 or shorter
o 22/1+ : 2/257, 26 places…11% winners…55% runners…36% places
***
OTHER STATS
Miscellaneous 1
Origin of Horse
GB: 4/125, 18 places
IRE: 9/223, 34 places
FR: 4/71, 15 places
USA: 1/19, 1 place
GER: 0/19, 3 places
Weight (excl J-Claim)
11-9+ : 0/27, 2 places
Pos Wgts (ex Clm) –
4th to 8th in Weights (inc joints): 0/88, 7 places
‘The ‘Running’ Characteristics’
H (Horse) -Run (90 days)
14/18 1 or 2 run prev 90 days
o 14/270,47 places…78% winners…58% runners…65% places
H – Run (career)
23+ runs: 0/142, 17 places…31% runners…24% places
Copyright: Josh Wright 2016
H- Run (Hncp)
0: 0/38, 6 places
11+ : 2/164, 22 places…11% winners…35% runners…31% places 17+: 0/79, 7 places
H-Run (NH Race Type)
20+ hurdle runs: 0/41, 8 places
H- RUN (Hncp NH Race Type)
0 handicap hurdle runs: 0/60, 7 places
1-7 runs: 16/296, 50 places…89% winners…64% runners…69% places
14+: 0/38, 6 places
H- Run (track)
5+ : 0/28, 4 places
H-Run (Last Win)
Won at least once in last 4 starts: 13/283,42 places…72% winners…61% runners…58% places
H-Run (Last Placing)
15/18 placed on at least one of previous 3 starts
o Did Not: 2/80, 14 places…11% winners…17% runners…19% places
The ‘Winning’ Characteristics
H-Win (Career)
8+: 0/43, 2 places
H-Win (NH Race Type)
4+ : 2/117, 14 places…11% winners…25% runners…19% places
H-Win (Hncp/Non)
17/18 had 0-2 handicap wins
o 3+ : 1/131, 14 places…5.5% winners…28% runners…19% places
Copyright: Josh Wright 2016
H-Win (Hcap NH)
4+ : 0/27, 3 places
H-Win (Festival) – Just for Cheltenham
1: 0/18, 2 places
Miscellaneous 2
Class Move
Drop 1 or 2 classes: 0/42, 2 places
Up 1: 0/39, 2 places
Up 4+ : 0/34, 2 places
Highest Class Run
C3 or below: 0/24, 2 places
H-Places (NH Race type)
8+ : 2/100, 13 places…11% winners…22% runners…18% places
Horses ‘Last Race’ Characteristics
(LR)-last run – NH Race Type
Not a NH race: 0/21, 3 places
Chase: 0/28, 1 place
NHF: 0/4, 0 places
(LR) Grp/Grd/Lst
G1: 0/20, 4 places
Listed: 0/36, 2 places
(LR) No. of Runners
2-6 runners: 0/70, 6 places
Copyright: Josh Wright 2016
Track LTO (of interest)
Newbury: 6/90, 21 places
Leop: 4/41, 14 places
Sand: 2/53, 7 places
Chelt: 2/36, 4 places
1 win: Ascot/Kelso/Clonmel/Winc
Musselburgh: 0/15, 2 places
Donc: 0/19, 0 places
Kempt: 0/24, 1 places
Trainers (of interest)
P Nicholls: 4/23, 7 places
W P Mullins: 3/20, 8 places
MC Pipe: 2/37, 4 places
N Henderson: 1/32, 4 places
P Hobbs: 1/24, 7 places
Others 1 win: A Mullins/T Mullins/J A Old/Mrs J Harrington/Jonjo O’Neill/AJ Martin/T Hogan
A King: 0/10, 2 places
G L Moore: 0/10, 1 places
Noel Meade: 0/13, 1 places
***
THE WINNING PROFILE?
Aged 5-9
Ran 1-120 days ago
Carry 9-13 or less a negative (including jockey claims)
11-9 or more (excluding jockey claim) a negative
OR 128+
Had run over further than 22.5f in career
4th to 8th in weights a negative (inc joint weights)
22 or fewer career runs
17+ handicap runs a negative, so is 0 handicap runs
1-7 handicap hurdle runs
7 or fewer career wins
3 or fewer handicap hurdle wins
Running in a chase LTO a negative
Running in a race with 2-6 runners LTO a negative
Copyright: Josh Wright 2016
16.50 The Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle Race
7 renewals since inception in 2009
162 runners, 28 placed horses
TRENDS
Previous Place
6/7 Top 4 LTO
o 4/95, 19 places…85% winners…58% runners…68% places
o 1st: 4/40, 10 places…+16.5 SP
o UR: 1/1
o PU: 0/5, 0 places
Horse Age
7/7 Aged 5 or 6
o 7/93 runners…19 places…100% winners…57% runners…68% places
o 4yo: 0/1, 1 place
o 7+ : 0/68, 8 places
Days Since Run
7/7 Ran 16-60 days ago
o 7/105, 21 places…100% winners…65% runners…75% places
o 1-15 days: 0/13, 1 place
o 61+ days: 0/44, 6 places
Horse Weight
7/7 carried 11-1 or MORE
o 7/93, 18 places…100% winners…57% runners…64% places
o 11-0 or less: 0/69, 10 places
o 11-6+ : 1/30, 5 places
Horse Official Rating
7/7 OR 133+
o 132<: 0/43, 4 places
Season Runs
7+: 0/20, 3 places
Copyright: Josh Wright 2016
Maximum Distance Winners Had WON Over
6/7 Had won over at least 2m3f previously
o 1/57, 8 places had not…14% winners…35% runners…29% places
Position In Market
7/7 Top 15 in market
o 16th or worse: 0/48, 2 places
Odds
7/7 : 40/1 or shorter
6/7: 20/1 or shorter
50/1 + : 0/33, 1 place
***
OTHER STATS
Miscellaneous 1
Origin of Horse
GB: 1/37, 7 places
IRE: 5/72, 11 places
FR: 1/41, 9 places
Other: 0/12, 1 place
Headgear
Cheekpieces: 0/19, 1 place
Blinkers: 0/11, 0 places
Visor: 0/4, 0 places
Weight (excl J-Claim)
11-12: 0/10, 1 place
11-0 or less: 0/36, 6 places
11-4 or less: 1/93, 14 places…14% winners…57% runners…50% places
Pos Wgts (ex Clm)
Top 2 (inc joints): 0/19, 3 places
Copyright: Josh Wright 2016
‘The ‘Running’ Characteristics’
H (Horse) -Run (90 days)
0: 0/21, 1 place
H – Run (career)
18+ : 0/50, 1 place
H- Run (Hncp)
8+ handicap runs: 0/53, 2 places
H-Run (NH Race Type)
9+ : 1/72, 8 places…14% winners…44% runners…28% places
H- RUN (Hncp NH Race Type)
8+ handicap hurdle runs: 0/25, 2 places
H- Run (track)
7/7: 0 or 1 track run only
o 2+ : 0/34, 1 place
H-Run (Last Win)
6/7 had won at least once in last 3 runs
o Had not: 1/70, 8 places
The ‘Winning’ Characteristics
H-Win (Career)
5+ career wins: 0/50, 2 places
H-Win (NH Race Type)
6/7 had 1 to 2 hurdle wins
o 0 or 3+ : 1/77, 8 places
H-Win (Hncp)
3+ handicap wins: 0/31, 2 places
Copyright: Josh Wright 2016
H-Win (Season)
0: 1/61, 7 places
1 or 2: 6/79, 18 places
3+ : 0/22, 3 places
Miscellaneous 2
Best In Three Runs
6/88, 19 places had won at least once in previous 3 starts.
1/74, 9 places had not
Class Move
Same class as last run: 0/49, 5 places
Highest Class Run
G2 : 0/32, 8 places
Highest Class Win
G1 and 2: 0/12, 0 places
H-Places (NH Race type)
7 or more places in hurdle races: 0/36, 2 places
Jockey Claims
7/7 had no claim or claimed 3lbs
o 5lb: 0/3, 0 places
o 6lbs: 0/11, 2 places
o 8lbs: 0/16, 4 places
Horses ‘Last Race’ Characteristics
(LR) Hcap/Non
Non Handicap: 5/55, 15 places
Handicap: 2/107, 13 places
(LR) Race Class (inc Irish)
C2: 0/49, 5 places
Copyright: Josh Wright 2016
(LR) No. of Runners
11+ runners: 0/73, 10 places
Track LTO (of interest)
No track has produced more than one winner to date
1 win each: Clonmel/Musselburgh/Market R/Leop/Naven/Hayd/Kempt
Chelt: 0/17, 0 places
Newb: 0/12, 0 places
Sand: 0/10, 1 place
Ascot: 0/12, 1 place
Trainers (of interest)
W P Mullins: 3/8, 5 places
N Henderson: 1/18, 5 places
Other 1 win: P Nicholls/M Jefferson/Miss E Lavelle
P Hobbs: 0/12, 1 place
D Pipe: 0/17, 1 place
A King: 0/5, 0 places
Miss V Williams: 0/8, 1 place
Jonjo O’Neill: 0/5, 0 places
***
THE WINNING PROFILE?
Top 4 LTO has been a big positive (+ 1 UR)
Aged 5 or 6 (don’t discount 4yo, 0/1, 1 place)
Ran 16-60 days ago
11-1 or more (excluding jockey claims)
Top 2 in weights, inc join weights, a negative to date
OR 133+
6 or fewer season runs
17 or fewer career runs
7 or fewer handicap runs
7 or fewer handicap hurdle runs
2 or more runs at track a negative
Not moving in class a negative (so running in a C2 LTO)
6 or fewer places in hurdle races
Copyright: Josh Wright 2016
***
17.30 The Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Steeple Chase
18 renewals
358 runners, 71 placed horses
***
TRENDS
Previous Place
16/18 Top 6 LTO
o 16/292 runners, 60 places…89% winners…82% runners…85% places
o Fell: 1/10, 3 places
o PU: 0/9, 3 places
Horse Age
Nothing too Significant. Winners aged 5 to 12.
o 10yo+ : 2/72, 8 places..11% winners…20% runners…11% places
Days Since Run
16/18 ran 8-60 days ago
o 16/273,55 places…89% winners…76% runners…77% places
o 1-7 days: 0/5, 1 place
o 61-90 days: 0/39, 8 places
o 91-120 days: 2/27, 5 places
o 121+ : 0/9, 2 places
Horse Weight
18/18 11-6 or less
o 11-7 or more: 0/37, 6 places
Horse Official Rating
18/18 147 or lower
o 148+ : 0/33, 6 places
Season Runs
18/18 had 7 or fewer seasonal runs
o 8+ : 0/44, 6 places
Copyright: Josh Wright 2016
Maximum Distance Winners Had RUN Over
18/18 had run over a maximum of 2m7.5F in career
o Ran over 3m+: 0/70,9 places
Odds
17/18 20/1 or shorter
o 22/1-40/1: 1/85, 8 places
o 50/1+ : 0/59, 2 places
***
OTHER STATS
Miscellaneous 1
Origin of Horse
GB: 2/89, 14 places
IRE: 9/131, 27 places
FR: 6/110, 20 places
GER: 1/9, 5 places
USA: 0/15, 3 places
Weight (excl J-Claim)
11-7 + : 0/41, 6 places
Pos Wgts (ex Clm)
Clear Top Weight: 0/18, 5 places
Clear Second: 0/15, 1 place
‘The ‘Running’ Characteristics’
H (Horse) -Run (90 days)
4+ : 0/37, 6 places
H – Run (career)
32+ : 1/75, 7 places…5.5% winners…21% runners…10% places
H- Run (Hncp)
24+ : 0/46, 2 places
Copyright: Josh Wright 2016
H-Run (NH Race Type)
0-12 chase runs: 17/228, 59 places…94% winners…64% runners…83% places horses
13-20 chase runs: 1/85, 8 places
21+ chase runs: 0/45, 4 places
H- RUN (Hncp NH Race Type)
0-8 handicap chase runs: 17/250, 59 places…94% winners…70% runners…83% places 9-16 handicap chase runs: 1/74, 9 places
17+ handicap chase runs: 0/34, 3 places
H- Run (Track-NH Code)
6+ chase runs at Cheltenham: 0/30, 2 places
The ‘Winning’ Characteristics
H-Win (Career)
0-1: 1/30, 7 places
9+ : 0/43, 3 places
H-Win (NH Race Type)
6+ : 0/36, 5 places
H-Win (Hncp)
6+ : 0/26, 3 places
H-Win (Track)
2+ : 0/27, 5 places
Miscellaneous 2
Best In Three Runs
18/18 finished Top 4 on at least one of last 3 starts
o 0/22, 4 places did not
Distance Move
Down 4f or more: 0/35, 8 places
Copyright: Josh Wright 2016
Highest Class Run
Listed: 0/19, 0 places
C3 or lower: 0/18, 4 places
Highest Class Win
G3: 0/27, 3 places
Listed: 0/22, 3 places
Horses ‘Last Race’ Characteristics
Track LTO (of interest)
Newbury: 4/36, 7 places
Sandown: 3/54, 13 places
Leop: 2/14, 4 places
Gowran: 2/4, 2 places
1 win each: Fairy/Haydock/Kelso/Leic/Punch/Here/Warw
Muss: 0/9, 0 places
Kempton: 0/20, 4 places
Hunt: 0/11, 0 places
Cheltenham: 0/26, 5 places
Naas: 0/12, 2 places
Donc: 0/33, 7 places
Ascot: 0/24, 4 places
Trainers (of interest)
ALT Moore: 2/8, 3 places
N Henderson: 2/38, 10 places
P Nicholls: 2/27, 6 places
1 win each, many: NTD/C Tizzard/H Daly/M Scudamore/Mrs John Harrington/A
King/J G Fitzgerald/A J Martin/T Mullins/M F Morris/M Venetia Williams
D Pipe: 0/9, 2 places
P Hobbs: 0/14, 2 places
***
Copyright: Josh Wright 2016
THE WINNING PROFILE?
11-6 or less (exc jockey claims)
Clear Top Weight and Clear Second have a negative record to date
OR 147 or lower
7 or fewer runs this season
Yet to run over 24f or further in career
0-3 runs in last 90 days
23 or fewer handicap runs
16 or fewer handicap chase runs
5 or fewer chase runs at track
8 or fewer career wins
5 or fewer handicap wins
Top 4 on at least one of last three starts
***
Copyright: Josh Wright 2016
BONUS RACES
Below I have applied my stats/trends profile checklist to the following four races:-
National Hunt Steeple Chase (Day 1)
RSA Chase (Day 2)
Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle (DAY 4)
The Gold Cup (Day 4)
***
DAY 1
16.50 The National Hunt Steeple Chase
18 renewals since 1997
362 horses, 54 places
TRENDS
Previous Place
12/18 Top 2 LTO
o 12/172 runners, 33 places…67% winners…48% runners…61% places
o Fell: 0/5, 1 place
o Unseated Rider (UR): 0/8, 0 places
o PU: 0/28, 3 places
Horse Age
13/18 Aged 7 or 8
o 13/235, 35 places…72% winners…65% runners…65% places
o 5/6: 1/51, 9 places…6% winners…14% runners…16% places
o 9+ : 4/76, 10 places…22% winners…21% runnners…19% places
o (generally not much to go on given the stats above, age of horse shouldn’t really be the deciding factor)
Days Since Run
18/18 ran 16-120 days ago
o 1-15 days: 0/49, 2 places
Horse Weight
Nothing significant
Copyright: Josh Wright 2016
Horse Official Rating
5 winners had No Official Rating
OR 114 or below: 0/70, 2 places
OR 146+ : 4/13, 7 places
Season Runs
0 or 1: 0/21, 1 place
10+ : 0/15, 2 places
Maximum Distance Winners Had WON Over
3m4f or further: 0/13, 2 places
Position In Market
18/18 Top 14 in market
15th or worse: 0/98, 4 places
Odds
18/18 40/1 or shorter
o 50/1+ : 0/87, 2 places
***
OTHER STATS
Miscellaneous 1
Origin of Horse
GB: 5/64, 10 places
IRE: 9/257, 36 places
FR: 2/35, 5 places
USA: 1/4,2 places
GER: 1/1, 1 place
Copyright: Josh Wright 2016
‘The ‘Running’ Characteristics’
H – Run (career)
0-2: 0/25, 3 places
H-Run (NH Race Type)
0-2 Chase runs: 1/70, 10 places…6% winners…19% runners…19% places
The ‘Winning’ Characteristics
Nothing of note.
Miscellaneous 2
Best In Five Runs
18/18 finished 1st or 2nd on at least once of previous 5 starts
0/29, 2 places did NOT
Distance Move
18/18 were moving up in trip by 6f or more
o Only moving up 5.5f or less: 0/48, 7 places
Highest Class Run
Yet to run above Class 4: 0/39, 6 places
Horses ‘Last Race’ Characteristics
(LR) Race Class (inc Irish)
Class 5 or 6: 0/32, 3 places
(LR) No. of Runners
14+ : 0/64, 7 places
Copyright: Josh Wright 2016
(LR) Track
Leop: 3/11, 5 places
Kempton: 2/11, 4 places
Chelt: 2/8, 2 places
Warw: 2/18, 5 places
1 win each: Gowran/Ludl/Navan/Newby/Chep/Catt/Muss/Weth/Uttox
Donc: 0/15, 2 places
Naas: 0/10, 2 places
Sandown: 0/13, 0 places
Plumpton: 0/10, 1 place
Leic: 0/11, 0 places
Thurles: 0/10, 2 places
Hayd: 0/13, 2 places
Font: 0/14, 3 places
Trainers (of interest)
Jonjo O’Neill: 4/22, 5 places
A King: 2/9, 3 places
Gordon Elliot: 2/3, 2 places
W P Mullins: 1/9, 2 places
Others 1 win: I Duncan/M Hourigan/Rebecca Curtis/H Daly/NTD
D Pipe: 0/6, 2 places
D McCain Jnr: 0/7, 0 places
P Nicholls: 0/17, 2 places
***
THE WINNING PROFILE?
Not PU LTO
Ran at least 16 days ago
OR 115 or above (of those with a rating)
2-9 runs this season
Top 14 in market / 40/1 or shorter
3+ career runs
1st or 2nd on at least one of last 5 starts
Moving up in trip by 6f or more
Had run above C4 before, raced above C5 LTO
***
Copyright: Josh Wright 2016
DAY 2
14.10 The RSA Steeple Chase
18 renewals since 1997
216 runners, 54 placed horses
***
TRENDS
Previous Place
18/18 Top 3 LTO
o 0/45, 4 places Did Not
o PU: 0/11, 0 places
Horse Age
18/18 Aged 5-8
o 9+ : 0/23, 1 place
o 7yo: 13/105, 29 places…72% winners…49% runners…54% places
Days Since Run
Nothing much of note
o 1-15 days: 0/7, 0 places
o 91+ days: 0/7, 1 place
Horse Weight
Nothing significant
Horse Official Rating
Nothing significant
Season Runs
7+ seasons runs: 0/22, 3 places
Position In Market
Nothing significant
Copyright: Josh Wright 2016
Odds
50/1 + : 0/32, 2 places
Winners at all other odds
***
OTHER STATS
Miscellaneous 1
Origin of Horse
GB: 0/26, 5 places
IRE: 16/140, 38 places
FR: 2/44, 11 places
Headgear
Cheekpieces: 0/8, 0 places
Blinkers: 0/7, 0 places
‘The ‘Running’ Characteristics’
H (Horse) -Run (90 days)
0: 0/7, 1 place
4+ : 0/16, 4 places
H- RUN (Hncp NH Race Type)
6+ : 0/23, 4 places
H- Run (track)
4+ : 0/26, 4 places
H- Run (Track-NH Code)
2+ : 0/20, 2 places
H-Run (Last Placing)
18/18 placed on at least one of previous two races
o 0/25, 4 places did not
Copyright: Josh Wright 2016
The ‘Winning’ Characteristics
H-Win (Festival) – Just for Cheltenham
1 win: 4/13, 7 places
Miscellaneous 2
Distance Move
Up 4f or more: 0/45, 11 places
H-Places (NH Race type)
5+ : 0/19, 2 places
Horses ‘Last Race’ Characteristics
(LR) Track
Leop: 6/37, 12 places
Ascot: 3/32, 13 places
1 win each: Kempt/Hayd/Winc/Font/Sand/Newby/Punch/Hunt/Exet
Chelt: 0/15, 1 place
Trainers (of interest)
WP Mullins: 4/18, 7 places
P Nicholls: 2/16, 4 places
N Henderson: 2/13, 5 places
1 win each: R Curtis/P Hobbs/Jonjo O’Neill/Noel Chance/JH Culloty/C Byrnes/Mrs H
Harrington
***
THE WINNING PROFILE?
Top 3 LTO
Aged 5-8
6 or fewer runs this season
5 or fewer non handicap chase runs
Placed on at least one of previous 2 runs
Not up in trip by 4f or more
***
Copyright: Josh Wright 2016
Day 4
14.50 The Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle Race
New race in 2005
11 renewals
199 runners, 33 placed horses
***
TRENDS
Previous Place
11/11 Top 4 LTO
o 0/33, 2 places finished 5th or worse
o Fell: 0/5, 0 places
o PU: 0/10, 0 places
Horse Age
11/11 Aged 5-7
o 8+ : 0/21, 4 places
Days Since Run
Not much of note.
o 1-15 days: 0/14, 1 place
Horse Weight
Not significant
Horse Official Rating
Of the 10 win an official rating: 10/10 OR 135 or higher
o OR 134 or under: 0/62, 1 place
Season Runs
10/11 had 2-5 runs this season
o 6+ : 1/44, 4 places…9% winners…22% runners…12% places
Maximum Distance Winners Had RUN Over
11/11 had run over NO further than 24f
o 0/61, 5 places had run over 24.5f or further in career previously
Copyright: Josh Wright 2016
Position In Market
10/11 Top 9 in market
o 10th or below: 1/97, 6 places…9% winners…49% runners…18% places
Odds
11/11 40/1 or shorter
o 50/1+ : 0/67, 2 places
***
OTHER STATS
Miscellaneous 1
Origin of Horse
GB: 0/35, 2 places
IRE: 8/133, 25 places
FR: 3/26, 5 places
‘The ‘Running’ Characteristics’
H (Horse) -Run (90 days)
10/11 had 0-2 runs in previous 90 days
o 3+ : 1/44, 4 places…9% winners…22% runners…12% places
H – Run (career)
10/11 had 4-8 career runs
o 10/122, 24 places…91% winners…61% runners…72% places
o 1-3 career runs: 0/20, 2 places
o 9+ : 1/57, 7 places…9% winners…29% runners…21% places
H-Run (NH Race Type)
8/11 had 3-4 hurdle runs
o 8/91, 17 places…73% winners…46% runners…52% places
o 1-2: 0/33, 2 places
o 7+ : 1/36, 5 places…9% winners…18% runners…15% places
H- RUN (Hncp NH Race Type)
1-2 non handicap hurdle runs: 0/37, 3 places
Copyright: Josh Wright 2016
The ‘Winning’ Characteristics
H-Win (Career)
0: 1/6, 1 place
1 only: 0/29, 2 places
H-Win (Track)
1+ : 5/29, 8 places…45% winners…15% runners…24% places
H-Win (Track/NH Code)
1+ : 5/20, 8 places
Miscellaneous 2
Class Move
11/11 running at same class or moving up 1 only (so ran in a G1 or G2 LTO)
o 11/78, 23 places…100% winners…39% runners…70% places
o Moving up 2 or more: 0/118, 8 places
Distance Move
11/11 ran at same distance or up by no more than 4f from last run
o Down in distance: 0/33, 2 places
o Up 4.5+ : 0/34, 2 places
Highest Class Run
11/11 had run in a G2 or G1 previously
o 0/74, 8 places had not
Horse Place on Racecourse Debut
9/11 finished 1st or 2nd on first ever start under rules
o 3rd or worse: 2/82, 14 places (includes one who ran of course)
Copyright: Josh Wright 2016
Horses ‘Last Race’ Characteristics
(LR) Hcap/Non
Ran in a handicap LTO: 0/28, 3 places
(LR) Race Class (inc Irish)
11/11 ran in a class 1 LTO
o 0/98, 6 places did not
(LR) Grp/Grd/Lst
Non Major (outside of Listed/Graded company) : 0/98, 6 places
G1: 0/10, 1 place
G2: 11/68, 22 places
G3: 0/14, 3 places
Listed: 0/9, 1 place
(LR) No. of Runners
12+ : 0/57, 5 places
(LR) Track
Cheltenham: 4/19, 5 places
Leop: 2/16, 6 places
Hayd: 2/18, 6 places
1 win each: Naas/Warw/Navan
Donc: 0/18, 1 place
Kempton: 0/8, 0 places
Trainers (of interest)
Jonjo O’Neill: 2/2, 2 places
1 win each: Miss R Curtis/A King/C Byrnes/N Henderson/Ms Margaret Mullins/F
Doumen/N Meade/Paul John Gilligan/Miss Lucinda V Russell
NTD: 0/10, 1 place
W P Mullins: 0/18, 4 places
***
Copyright: Josh Wright 2016
THE WINNING PROFILE?
Top 4 LTO
Aged 5-7
OR 135 or higher (of those with a rating)
Yet to run beyond 24f in career
GB Bred a negative
3 or more hurdle runs
Just 1 or 2 non handicap hurdle runs a negative
Same distance as LTO or up no more than 4f from last run
Running at same class or moving up 1 only
Ran in G2 LTO
***
15.30 The Timico Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Chase
18 previous renewals since 1997
257 runners, 54 placed horses
One winner down as having had no previous run, likely no UK/Irish form
***
TRENDS
Previous Place
Nothing too significant
o 1st LTO: 11/84, 27 places
o 7th or worse (completed): 0/15, 0 places
o Fell: 0/7, 1 place
o PU: 1/11, 1 place
Horse Age
18/18 aged 6-10
o 10 : 1/46, 6 places
o 11+ : 0/32, 4 places
Days Since Run
17/17 (of those with UK/Irish form) ran 31 or more days ago
o 1-30 days: 0/66, 12 places
o 121-365: 0/4, 0 places
Copyright: Josh Wright 2016
Horse Weight
No significant
Horse Official Rating
Of the 14 with an official rating: 13/14 OR 166+
o 165 or under: 1/138, 15 places
Season Runs
6+ : 0/20, 4 places
Maximum Distance Winners Had RUN Over
27f + : 1/85, 10 places…6% winners…33% runners…19% places
Position In Market
18/18 Top 10 in market
o 11th or worse: 0/70, 4 places
Odds
50/1+ : 0/56, 3 places
***
OTHER STATS
Miscellaneous 1
Origin of Horse
GB: 1/43, 6 places
IRE: 14/148, 35 places
FR: 3/63, 13 places
‘The ‘Running’ Characteristics’
H – Run (career)
21+ : 0/80, 10 places
H- Run (Non Hncp)
19+ non handicap runs: 0/44, 6 places
Copyright: Josh Wright 2016
H-Run (NH Race Type)
13+ Chase Runs: 1/89, 12 places…6% winners…35% runners…22% places
H-Run (Last Win)
17/17 had won at least once in previous 4 starts
o 0/66, 9 places had not
The ‘Winning’ Characteristics
H-Win (Grp/Grd/Lst)
0 wins G1 level: 2/144, 15 places…11% winners…56% runners…28% places
o (wins in 1997/1998) 0/30, 2 places last 5 festivals
Miscellaneous 2
Best In Three Runs
15/17 had won at least once in previous 3 runs
o 2/98, 14 places had not
Best In Five Runs
17/17 had won at least once in previous 5 runs
o 0/66, 8 places had not
Highest Class Win
16/17 Had won at G1 level
o G2: 0/73, 8 places
o G3: 0/19, 2 places
o Listed: 0/12, 0 places
o C2/3: 1/23, 3 places (win in 1998) Only 1 such runner last 5 festivals
Horses ‘Last Race’ Characteristics
(LR)-last run – NH Race Type
Hurdle: 0/9, 0 places
(LR) Race Class (inc Irish)
17/17 ran in C1 LTO
o 0/35, 2 places did not
Copyright: Josh Wright 2016
(LR) Grp/Grd/Lst
Listed: 0/17, 2 places
(LR) Track
Kempton: 6/24, 9 places
Newby: 4/42, 11 places
Leop: 4/50, 13 places
Chelt: 2/48, 6 places
Sand: 1/8, 1 place
Haydock: 0/21, 3 places
Winc: 0/16, 3 places
Ascot: 0/10, 2 places
Trainers (of interest)
P Nicholls: 4/37, 11 plsces
N Chance: 2/3, 2 places
N Henderson: 2/13, 4 places
1 win each: Jonjo O’Neill/T J Taffe/NTD/ Bradstock/M Morris/J H Culloty
W Mullins: 0/14, 6 places
***
THE WINNING PROFILE?
Aged 6-10
Ran 31+ days ago
Top 10 in market
20 or fewer career runs
Had won at least once in previous 4 starts
Ran in C1 LTO
***
Copyright: Josh Wright 2016
CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL: TOP LEVEL LOOK AT THE HANDICAPS
General Handicap Stats (2011-)
***
HANDICAP CHASES
(excluding the Novice Handicap Chase)
526 bets / 25 wins (5 each Festival) / 99 places
***
TRENDS
Horse Age
5+6 : 0/33, 8 places
11+ :1/79, 13 places
Days Since Run
1-15 days: 1/39, 3 places
Horse Official Rating
OR 151+ : 0/34, 2 places
Season Runs
8+ : 0/37, 6 places
Odds
66/1+ : 0/38, 0 places
***
OTHER STATS
Miscellaneous 1
Origin of Horse
GB: 5/93, 17 places
IRE: 16/293, 59 places
USA: 0/16, 3 places
FR: 3/117, 18 places
Copyright: Josh Wright 2016
Weight (excl J-Claim)
10-12 – 11-0: 0/59, 12 places
‘The ‘Running’ Characteristics’
H – Run (career)
0-11: 2/83, 13 places…8% winners…16% runners…13% places
H- Run (Hncp)
24 or more handicap runs: 0/50, 5 places
H-Run (NH Race Type)
21 or more chase runs: 0/72, 11 places
H- RUN (Hncp NH Race Type)
17 or more handicap chase runs: 0/50, 8 places
H- Run (track)
0: 3/109, 18 places…12% winners…21% runners…18% places
H-Run (Last Win)
No wins in last 10 runs: 0/46, 13 places
The ‘Winning’ Characteristics
H-Win (NH Race Type)
0: 0/20, 6 places
H-Win (Hncp)
6+ : 0/37, 4 places
H-Win (Hcap NH)
6+ : 0/17, 2 places
H-Win (Season)
3+ : 0/34, 5 places
Copyright: Josh Wright 2016
Miscellaneous 2
Distance Move
Dropping 1 furlong or more from last run: 0/91, 15 places
Highest Class Win
G1: 1/28, 4 places
G2: 1/66, 14 places
G3: 0/60, 6 places
Jockey Claims
3lbs: 2/48, 10 places
5lbs: 0/38, 2 places
7lbs: 2/41, 5 places
10lbs: 0/2, 0 places
Total: 4/129, 17 places…16% winners…25% runners…17% places
Horses ‘Last Race’ Characteristics
(LR) Grp/Grd/Lst
Listed: 0/30, 7 places
(LR) Track
Cheltenham: 7/82, 19 places
Haydock: 3/27, 4 places
Punchestown: 2/24, 7 places
Newbury: 2/39, 6 places
1 win: Leop (1/22,7p) / Kempt (1/33,2p) / Kelso / Galway /Navan/Sandown (1/38,7
p) /Donc (1/30,7p) / Aint / Fairy / Winc / Warw (1/22,4 p)
Ascot: 0/38, 4 places
Copyright: Josh Wright 2016
Trainers (of interest)
D Pipe: 4/40, 10 places
Jonjo O’Neill: 3/23, 7 places
P Hobbs: 2/16, 5 places
C Tizzard: 2/17, 4 places
A J Martin: 2/10, 4 places
1 win of note
o Miss V Williams: 1/26, 2 places
o Henry De Bromhead: 1/6, 3 places
o N Henderson: 1/38, 7 places
o NTD: 1/16, 2 places
o A King: 1/18, 2 places
P Nicholls: 0/18, 0 places
E Bolger: 0/11, 1 place
W P Mullins: 0/18, 5 places
D McCain Jnr: 0/10, 3 places
***
HANDICAP HURDLES
(excluding the Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle)
495 runners, 20 wins (4 each Festival), 80 placed horses
TRENDS
Previous Place
5th or worse LTO: 4/209 runners, 29 places…20% winners…42% runners…36% places
Horse Age
Aged 7 or older: 5/255, 32 places…25% winners…52% runners…40% places
Days Since Run
76 or more days: 0/87, 13 places
Horse Weight
10-5 or less: 0/26, 0 places
Copyright: Josh Wright 2016
Horse Official Rating
OR 133 or below: 0/52, 2 places
Season Runs
9+ : 0/13, 0 places
Wins (Distance)
2 or more wins at distance: 0/31, 1 place
Position In Market
13th or worse: 1/231, 21 places
o 13th-15th: 1/76, 14 places
o 16th or worse: 0/155, 7 places
Odds
28/1+ : 1/203, 15 places
o 40/1 or bigger: 0/111, 2 places
o 28/1-33/1: 1/92, 13 places
***
OTHER STATS
Miscellaneous 1
Origin of Horse
USA: 0/11, 1 place
GER: 0/15, 3 places
Headgear
Cheekpieces: 0/47, 4 places
Visor: 0/14, 0 places
Hood: 0/21, 3 places
Blinkers: 2/38, 2 places
Weight (excl J-Claim)
10-5 or less: 0/26, 0 places
Copyright: Josh Wright 2016
‘The ‘Running’ Characteristics’
H – Run (career)
40+ : 0/22, 0 places
H- Run (Hncp)
8+ : 2/101, 9 places…10% winners…20% winners…11% places
H-Run (NH Race Type)
14+ hurdle runs: 2/109, 8 places…10% winners…22% winners…10% places
H- RUN (Hncp NH Race Type)
8+ handicap hurdle runs: 2/101, 9 places…10% winners…22% winners…11% places
H- Run (track)
5+ track runs: 1/48, 4 places
The ‘Winning’ Characteristics
H-Win (Career)
9+ : 0/24, 1 place
H-Win (NH Race Type)
6+ : 0/18, 2 places
H-Win (Hncp)
3+ : 0/106, 8 places
H-Win (Hcap NH)
3+ handicap hurdle wins: 0/54, 5 places
H-Win (Class)
1+ : 1/79, 9 places…5% winners..16% runners…11% places
Copyright: Josh Wright 2016
Miscellaneous 2
Class Move
(There are only 12 winners within this stats pool. I am not 100% sure where the other 8 are.
They may have form abroad LTO whereby any class move is not picked up…)
Drop of 1-4 classes: 0/95, 4 places.
o (grade 3 to a listed race is a drop of 1 class for example)
o Classes… (G1,G2,G3,Lst,C1,C2,C3,C4,C5,C6,C7)
Up 3 or more classes: 0/49, 2 places
12/12 ran at same class, up 1 or up 2 from LTO
o 12/253, 44 places
SAME: 1/85, 15 places
Up 1: 7/98, 18 places
Up 2: 4/70, 11 places
Highest Class Run
Listed: 0/32, 4 places
Class 3: 0/13, 0 places
Jockey Claims
Claiming 6lbs or more: 0/48, 7 places
Horses ‘Last Race’ Characteristics
(LR)-last run – NH Race Type
Not NH race LTO: 0/14, 3 places
Chase: 0/44, 4 places
NH Flat: 0/11, 1 place
(LR) Grp/Grd/Lst
G1: 0/21, 5 places
Listed: 0/23, 0 places
(LR) No. of Runners
2: 1/2, 1 place
3-5: 0/46, 6 places
Copyright: Josh Wright 2016
(LR) Track
Leopardstown: 4/44, 15 places
Kempton: 2/36, 5 places
Ffos Las: 2/8, 3 places
Sand: 1/26, 1 place
Chelt: 1/47, 4 places
Hayd: 1/33, 4 places
Others 1 win each: Clonmel/Exet/Navan/Donc/Market R/Muss/Warw/Fairyhouse
Ascot: 0/32, 2 places
Newbury: 0/72, 11 places
Taunt: 0/13, 0 places
Punchestown: 0/15, 2 places
Trainers (of interest)
W P Mullins: 5/32, 14 places
P Nicholls: 2/29, 8 places
M Jefferson: 2/2, 2 places
N Henderson: 2/43, 5 places
A King: 1/18, 7 places
Thomas Mullins: 1/2, 1 place
Gordon Elliot: 1/18, 7 places
A J Martin: 1/9, 2 places
D McCain: 1/16, 2 places
D Pipe: 1/35, 3 places
Jonjo O’Neill: 1/20, 5 places
P J Hobbs: 1/28, 3 places
C Longsdon: 0/11, 0 places
NTD: 0/11, 2 places
Miss Venetia Williams: 0/16, 2 places
J Ferguson: 0/8. 0 places
***
Copyright: Josh Wright 2016
TRAINER MICRO ANGLE/PROFILES: HANDICAPS
HANDICAP MICRO ANGLE
Handicaps
Horse Runs In Career: 1-3*
Horse Wins In Career: 1 Only
Trainers: N Henderson/Miss E Lavelle/WP Mullins/P Nicholls/D Pipe
*Important: For all of this research I use Horse Race Base. Horse Race Base does NOT take
account of form from abroad, outside of the UK and Ireland. As such, if using this micro
angle, ignore all form from abroad, from France for example. Paul Nicholl’s winners in
particular may have a few French runs under their belts but based on their UK/Irish form
here would qualify.
I researched this angle before last season’s festival and it pointed to Qualando at 25/1. Every qualifier last year finished in the Top 6.
RESULTS
Bets Wins Win% P/L(SP) Places Place% Races Race% P/L(BF) ROI(BF) P/L(Plc) A/E
ALL 28 8 28.57 98 14 50 21 38.1 122.09 436.04 38.54 2.89
2015 5 1 20 21 3 60 3 33.33 24.11 482.21 9.07 2.7
2014 5 1 20 8 2 40 3 33.33 9.01 180.11 7.26 2.38
2013 3 0 0 -3 1 33.33 2 0 -3 -100 3.08 0
2012 4 2 50 42.5 2 50 4 50 54.34 1358.38 8 4.26
2011 1 1 100 4.5 1 100 1 100 5.42 542.45 1.95 5.56
2010 5 2 40 15 4 80 4 50 19.59 391.82 10.33 3.28
2009 1 0 0 -1 0 0 1 0 -1 -100 -1 0
2008 4 1 25 11 1 25 3 33.33 13.63 340.63 -0.15 4.35
Copyright: Josh Wright 2016
This angle could be further improved by looking at how well the trainers do in hurdles vs
chases with these runners…
Bets Wins Win% P/L(SP) Places Place% P/L(BF) P/L(Plc) A/E
NH Race
Type
= Hurdle
Trainer
= Nicholls, P
F
6 2 33.33 25 4 66.67 28.65 17.05 3.7
NH Race
Type
= Hurdle
Trainer
= Pipe, D E
5 0 0 -5 1 20 -5 -2.39 0
NH Race
Type
= Hurdle
Trainer
= Mullins, W
P
4 1 25 1.5 2 50 2.42 3.56 2.44
NH Race
Type = Chase
Trainer
= Pipe, D E
4 2 50 14.5 3 75 15.74 5.4 3.17
NH Race
Type
= Hurdle
Trainer
= Henderson,
N J
3 2 66.67 53 3 100 68.65 17.07 12.5
NH Race
Type
= Hurdle
Trainer
= Lavelle,
Miss E C
2 1 50 13 1 50 15.63 1.85 6.25
NH Race
Type = Chase
Trainer
= Nicholls, P
F
2 0 0 -2 0 0 -2 -2 0
NH Race
Type = Chase
Trainer
= Henderson,
N J
2 0 0 -2 0 0 -2 -2 0
Copyright: Josh Wright 2016
HANDICAP CHASE TRAINER PROFILES (2011-)
(excluding the Novice Handicap Chase)
David Pipe
20/1 or shorter
Horse Runs 90 days: 0 or 1 run only
18 bets / 4 wins / 10 places / 22% winSR / +14.8 SP / +19.47 BFSP
With all his handicap chasers sent off over 20/1 he is 0/15, 0 places. If they are a big big
price it is usually a negative. That will change one year no doubt. Within the set of those
that are 20/1 or shorter he is 0/7, 0 places with those that have had 2 or more runs in the
previous 90 days. It would appear that this is a deliberate strategy for his festival handicap
chasers. We should not be put off by those that have had a break, or not much racing in
recent weeks. All winners have been 12/1 or shorter but he has had 4 horses priced 16/1 or
20/1 hit the places.
Jonjo O’Neill
14/1 or shorter
10 bets / 3 wins / 6 places / 30% winSR / +23.5 SP / +30.89 BFSP
No need to over complicate t this one really. Those with a 16/1 + SP are 0/13, 1 place. Small
samples of course but a useful guide. Covers all his handicap chase winners at last 5
festivals.
Colin Tizzard
Aged 6-9
10 bets / 2 wins / 3 places / 20% winSR / +60 SP / +76 BFSP
Tizzard is 0/7, 2 places with those aged 10 or older, and we know that older horses generally
struggle here. Those two winners were in 2011 and 2013. He is 0/7, 1 place the last two
Festivals. But, given the season he is having, maybe he is about to send another big priced
handicap chaser to the winner’s enclosure.
Copyright: Josh Wright 2016
AJ (TONY) Martin
All handicap chasers
10 bets / 2 wins / 4 places / 20% winSR / +24 SP / +33 BFSP
Really not much more is needed. He clearly targets the festival well with his handicap
chasers and every single one is worth a second glance. Those that ran at Leopardstown last
time out are 0/4, 0 places. Both wins came with unexposed horses. Those with 3 or more
handicap chase wins are 0/4, 0 places.
***
HANDICAP HURDLE TRAINER PROFILES (2011-)
(excluding the Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle)
Willie Mullins
5+6 year olds
25 bets / 5 wins / 12 places / 20% wSR / +38.5 SP / +44.66 BFSP
It is best not to overcomplicate this angle too much either. He is currently 0/7, 2 places with
those aged 7 or older. There are not many other ways to ensure all of his winners are
covered. Those that were 1st last time out should be marked up: 3/5, 5 places. Those
moving up by 3 or 4 classes from last run are 0/5, 1 place.
Paul Nicholls
4-6 year olds
0 or 1 win in handicaps only
16/1 or shorter
9 bets / 3 wins / 4 places / 33% wSR / +30 SP / + 36.17 BFSP
This angle would have found one winner at each of the last three festivals. Remember this
will be based on UK form, not form from abroad, which can be ignored. Those aged 7 or
older are 0/7, 0 places, 2+ handicap hurdle wins are 0/4, 0 places. Those with an SP over
16/1 are currently 0/9, 4 places. Of course the numbers are small with micro angles such as
this but a useful guide nonetheless.
Copyright: Josh Wright 2016
Nicky Henderson
Horse aged 6 only
1st or 2nd LTO
7 bets / 2 wins / 2 places / 28% wSR / +18 SP / +18.73 BFSP
Henderson is 2/43 with all his handicap hurdles at the last 5 festivals so this angle helps
narrow it down somewhat. With 5 year olds he is 0/10, 1 place. With those aged 7+ he is
0/15, 1 place. 3rd or worse last time out (within the 6 year olds) are 0/8, 0 places. This angle
in the last 2 festivals reads… 1,5,5,8,1 – given bookmaker concessions you would have been
paid on some nice EW bets on those 5th places I suspect, many at decent odds.
***
***
That’s all for this year’s guide. It is my first attempt at pulling together something like this for a
festival. I hope you enjoy it and hopefully it helps us all with our shortlisting. Hopefully our pins
can land on the right ones from those shortlists and we have a profitable and enjoyable four days.
This approach has worked very well in ‘Big Races’ so far this jumps season and I see no reason why
it won’t continue to do so – albeit this is the most competitive racing all year!
Hopefully the trainers highlighted can also chip in with the odd big priced winner!
If you have any questions, you know where I am. I will try and get back to you ASAP.
All the best
Josh
www.racingtoprofit.co.uk
Email: [email protected]
***