Rachael Dempsey Penn State’s Institutes of the Environment [email protected].
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Transcript of Rachael Dempsey Penn State’s Institutes of the Environment [email protected].
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CARA REGIONCARA REGION
15% of the nations population15% of the nations population <10% of the territory<10% of the territory 2 largest estuaries2 largest estuaries One-quarter agricultureOne-quarter agriculture Two-thirds forestTwo-thirds forest
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PRIOR RESEARCHPRIOR RESEARCH
United States Regional United States Regional AssessmentAssessment MARAMARA NERANERA
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Mid-Atlantic CLIMATE Mid-Atlantic CLIMATE TRENDS TRENDS
Temperature:Temperature: 52 degrees F, average annual T52 degrees F, average annual T 1 degree Fahrenheit increase1 degree Fahrenheit increase Projected Temperature increase Projected Temperature increase
Precipitation:Precipitation: 41 inches, average annual ppt41 inches, average annual ppt 10% increase10% increase Projected ppt variabilityProjected ppt variability
Extreme events are more noticeableExtreme events are more noticeable
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LESSONS LEARNED FROM LESSONS LEARNED FROM MARAMARA
While processes are global in While processes are global in extent…extent…
Interactions with human systems Interactions with human systems at regional scales are decisive for at regional scales are decisive for planners and policy makers planners and policy makers
Global & national Global & national Regional & Regional & locallocal integrated assessments integrated assessments
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GOALGOAL
Web-based information resource Web-based information resource and tools to support decision and tools to support decision making affected by changes in making affected by changes in land use and climateland use and climate
Stakeholder driven development, Stakeholder driven development, research and integrationresearch and integration
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SECTORSSECTORS
AgricultureAgriculture EconomyEconomy EcosystemsEcosystems ForestsForests Human HealthHuman Health Sea-level riseSea-level rise Water resourcesWater resources
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THE CONSORTIUMTHE CONSORTIUM
US Environmental Protection Agency US Environmental Protection Agency
Penn State University, Carnegie Mellon Penn State University, Carnegie Mellon University, University of Rhode Island, University, University of Rhode Island, Virginia Institute of Marine ScienceVirginia Institute of Marine Science
Collaborators, Advisory Council, StudentsCollaborators, Advisory Council, Students 100+ stakeholders100+ stakeholders Scientific, public, private, government Scientific, public, private, government
sectors sectors
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CASE CASE STUDIESTUDIESSSafeguarding:Safeguarding: Natural Natural
resourcesresources Local Local
EconomyEconomy InfrastructureInfrastructure
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THE CARA WEBSITETHE CARA WEBSITE
Integrates climate and land use Integrates climate and land use change information at the regional change information at the regional and local levelsand local levels
Provides data, tools, guidance for Provides data, tools, guidance for assessing:assessing: Potential impactsPotential impacts Vulnerabilities Vulnerabilities Options and opportunitiesOptions and opportunities
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FOR FOR MULTIPLEMULTIPLE STAKEHOLDERSSTAKEHOLDERS
ImprovingImproving use of information in use of information in decision making and policydecision making and policy
EnhancingEnhancing dialog and cooperation dialog and cooperation among scientists and between among scientists and between science and societyscience and society
AdaptingAdapting to potential impacts due to potential impacts due to changes in land use and climateto changes in land use and climate
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DATADATA
Climate dataClimate data Land use data Land use data Environmental quality data Environmental quality data Socio-economic dataSocio-economic data
Data sourcesData sources
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WHAT WEBSITE USERS CAN WHAT WEBSITE USERS CAN DODO Synthesize; interpret information:Synthesize; interpret information:
ClimateClimate Land useLand use EnvironmentEnvironment Socio-economicsSocio-economics
Gather additional informationGather additional information Make graphs, maps etc.Make graphs, maps etc. Visualize the future via scenarios Visualize the future via scenarios Assess change, vulnerability, Assess change, vulnerability,
uncertainty uncertainty Systematically evaluate options; planSystematically evaluate options; plan
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WEB-BASED TOOLS, WEB-BASED TOOLS, GUIDANCEGUIDANCE Tools toTools to
Access, analyze information Access, analyze information Integrate information Integrate information Synthesize information Synthesize information Apply information Apply information otherother
Tool integrationTool integration Content integration Content integration Web integrationWeb integration
Guidance/ websiteGuidance/ website Development with stakeholders; case studiesDevelopment with stakeholders; case studies InteractiveInteractive IterativeIterative
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TOOLSTOOLS CARAVizCARAViz ClimateTrendsVizClimateTrendsViz GlobalClimateModelSelectionToolGlobalClimateModelSelectionTool SensitivityScreenToolSensitivityScreenTool CARA-TutorCARA-Tutor FloodLocatorFloodLocator FutureShaperFutureShaper DecisionsSupportToolDecisionsSupportTool e-DelphiToole-DelphiTool DocuMentorDocuMentor && AssessmentCompilerAssessmentCompiler
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TOOLSTOOLS CARAVizCARAViz: a visualization/mapping tool : a visualization/mapping tool [completed][completed]
ClimateTrendsVizClimateTrendsViz GlobalClimateModelSelectionToolGlobalClimateModelSelectionTool SensitivityScreenToolSensitivityScreenTool CARA-TutorCARA-Tutor FloodLocatorFloodLocator FutureShaperFutureShaper DecisionsSupportToolDecisionsSupportTool e-DelphiToole-DelphiTool DocuMentorDocuMentor && AssessmentCompilerAssessmentCompiler
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TOOLSTOOLS CARAVizCARAViz: a visualization/mapping tool : a visualization/mapping tool [completed][completed] ClimateTrendsVizClimateTrendsViz: identifies historical climate trends, : identifies historical climate trends,
variability variability [in progress][in progress]
GlobalClimateModelSelectionToolGlobalClimateModelSelectionTool SensitivityScreenToolSensitivityScreenTool CARA-TutorCARA-Tutor FloodLocatorFloodLocator FutureShaperFutureShaper DecisionsSupportToolDecisionsSupportTool e-DelphiToole-DelphiTool DocuMentorDocuMentor & & AssessmentCompilerAssessmentCompiler
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TOOLSTOOLS CARAVizCARAViz: a visualization/mapping tool : a visualization/mapping tool [completed][completed] ClimateTrendsVizClimateTrendsViz: identifies historical climate trends, : identifies historical climate trends,
variability variability [in progress][in progress] GlobalClimateModelSelectionToolGlobalClimateModelSelectionTool: for choosing : for choosing
a Global Climate Model a Global Climate Model [completed][completed]
SensitivityScreenToolSensitivityScreenTool CARA-TutorCARA-Tutor FloodLocatorFloodLocator FutureShaperFutureShaper DecisionsSupportToolDecisionsSupportTool e-DelphiToole-DelphiTool DocuMentorDocuMentor & & AssessmentCompilerAssessmentCompiler
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TOOLSTOOLS CARAVizCARAViz: a visualization/mapping tool : a visualization/mapping tool [completed][completed] ClimateTrendsVizClimateTrendsViz: identifies historical climate trends, : identifies historical climate trends,
variability variability [in progress][in progress] GlobalClimateModelSelectionToolGlobalClimateModelSelectionTool: for choosing : for choosing
a Global Climate Model a Global Climate Model [completed][completed] SensitivityScreenToolSensitivityScreenTool: to identify sensitive sectors : to identify sensitive sectors
[complete][complete]
CARA-TutorCARA-Tutor FloodLocatorFloodLocator FutureShaperFutureShaper DecisionsSupportToolDecisionsSupportTool e-DelphiToole-DelphiTool DocuMentorDocuMentor & & AssessmentCompilerAssessmentCompiler
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TOOLSTOOLS CARAVizCARAViz: a visualization/mapping tool : a visualization/mapping tool [completed][completed] ClimateTrendsVizClimateTrendsViz: identifies historical climate trends, : identifies historical climate trends,
variability variability [in progress][in progress] GlobalClimateModelSelectionToolGlobalClimateModelSelectionTool: for choosing : for choosing
a Global Climate Model a Global Climate Model [completed][completed] SensitivityScreenToolSensitivityScreenTool: to identify sensitive sectors : to identify sensitive sectors
[complete][complete] CARA-TutorCARA-Tutor: on climate change, land use change, : on climate change, land use change,
integrated assessments integrated assessments [in progress][in progress]
FloodLocatorFloodLocator FutureShaperFutureShaper DecisionsSupportToolDecisionsSupportTool e-DelphiToole-DelphiTool DocuMentorDocuMentor & & AssessmentCompilerAssessmentCompiler
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TOOLSTOOLS CARAVizCARAViz: a visualization/mapping tool : a visualization/mapping tool [completed][completed] ClimateTrendsVizClimateTrendsViz: identifies historical climate trends, : identifies historical climate trends,
variability variability [in progress][in progress] GlobalClimateModelSelectionToolGlobalClimateModelSelectionTool: for choosing : for choosing
a Global Climate Model a Global Climate Model [completed][completed] SensitivityScreenToolSensitivityScreenTool: to identify sensitive sectors : to identify sensitive sectors
[complete][complete] CARA-TutorCARA-Tutor: on climate change, land use change, : on climate change, land use change,
integrated assessments integrated assessments [in progress][in progress] FloodLocatorFloodLocator: identifies locations vulnerable to sea : identifies locations vulnerable to sea
level rise/floods level rise/floods [in progress][in progress]
FutureShaperFutureShaper DecisionsSupportToolDecisionsSupportTool e-DelphiToole-DelphiTool DocuMentorDocuMentor & & AssessmentCompilerAssessmentCompiler
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TOOLSTOOLS CARAVizCARAViz: a visualization/mapping tool : a visualization/mapping tool [completed][completed] ClimateTrendsVizClimateTrendsViz: identifies historical climate trends, : identifies historical climate trends,
variability variability [in progress][in progress] GlobalClimateModelSelectionToolGlobalClimateModelSelectionTool: for choosing : for choosing
a Global Climate Model a Global Climate Model [completed][completed] SensitivityScreenToolSensitivityScreenTool: to identify sensitive sectors : to identify sensitive sectors
[complete][complete] CARA-TutorCARA-Tutor: on climate change, land use change, : on climate change, land use change,
integrated assessments integrated assessments [in progress][in progress] FloodLocatorFloodLocator: identifies locations vulnerable to sea : identifies locations vulnerable to sea
level rise/floods level rise/floods [in progress][in progress] FutureShaperFutureShaper: generates comprehensive future : generates comprehensive future
scenarios of the scenarios of the [near completion][near completion]
DecisionsSupportToolDecisionsSupportTool e-DelphiToole-DelphiTool DocuMentorDocuMentor & & AssessmentCompilerAssessmentCompiler
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TOOLSTOOLS CARAVizCARAViz: a visualization/mapping tool : a visualization/mapping tool [completed][completed]
ClimateTrendsVizClimateTrendsViz: identifies historical climate trends, : identifies historical climate trends, variability variability [in progress][in progress]
GlobalClimateModelSelectionToolGlobalClimateModelSelectionTool: for choosing : for choosing a Global Climate Model a Global Climate Model [completed][completed]
SensitivityScreenToolSensitivityScreenTool: to identify sensitive sectors : to identify sensitive sectors [complete][complete]
CARA-TutorCARA-Tutor: on climate change, land use change, : on climate change, land use change, integrated assessments integrated assessments [in progress][in progress]
FloodLocatorFloodLocator: identifies locations vulnerable to sea : identifies locations vulnerable to sea level rise/floods level rise/floods [in progress][in progress]
FutureShaperFutureShaper: generates comprehensive future : generates comprehensive future scenarios of the scenarios of the [near completion][near completion]
DecisionsSupportToolDecisionsSupportTool: identifies critical decisions, : identifies critical decisions, policy options policy options [in progress][in progress]
e-DelphiToole-DelphiTool DocuMentorDocuMentor & & AssessmentCompilerAssessmentCompiler
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TOOLSTOOLS CARAVizCARAViz: a visualization/mapping tool : a visualization/mapping tool [completed][completed]
ClimateTrendsVizClimateTrendsViz: identifies historical climate trends, : identifies historical climate trends, variability variability [in progress][in progress]
GlobalClimateModelSelectionToolGlobalClimateModelSelectionTool: for choosing a : for choosing a Global Climate Model Global Climate Model [completed][completed]
SensitivityScreenToolSensitivityScreenTool: to identify sensitive sectors : to identify sensitive sectors [complete][complete]
CARA-TutorCARA-Tutor: on climate change, land use change, : on climate change, land use change, integrated assessments integrated assessments [in progress][in progress]
FloodLocatorFloodLocator: identifies locations vulnerable to sea level : identifies locations vulnerable to sea level rise/floods rise/floods [in progress][in progress]
FutureShaperFutureShaper: generates comprehensive future : generates comprehensive future scenarios of the scenarios of the [near completion][near completion]
DecisionsSupportToolDecisionsSupportTool: identifies critical decisions, : identifies critical decisions, policy options policy options [in progress][in progress]
e-DelphiToole-DelphiTool: facilitates multiple stakeholder input, : facilitates multiple stakeholder input, participation participation [complete][complete]
DocuMentorDocuMentor & & AssessmentCompilerAssessmentCompiler
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TOOLSTOOLS CARAVizCARAViz: a visualization/mapping tool : a visualization/mapping tool [completed][completed] ClimateTrendsVizClimateTrendsViz: identifies historical climate trends, : identifies historical climate trends,
variability variability [in progress][in progress] GlobalClimateModelSelectionToolGlobalClimateModelSelectionTool: for choosing a : for choosing a
Global Climate Model Global Climate Model [completed][completed] SensitivityScreenToolSensitivityScreenTool: to identify sensitive sectors : to identify sensitive sectors
[complete][complete] CARA-TutorCARA-Tutor: on climate change, land use change, integrated : on climate change, land use change, integrated
assessments assessments [in progress][in progress] FloodLocatorFloodLocator: identifies locations vulnerable to sea level : identifies locations vulnerable to sea level
rise/floods rise/floods [in progress][in progress] FutureShaperFutureShaper: generates comprehensive future scenarios : generates comprehensive future scenarios
of the of the [near completion][near completion] DecisionsSupportToolDecisionsSupportTool: identifies critical decisions, policy : identifies critical decisions, policy
options options [in progress][in progress] e-DelphiToole-DelphiTool: facilitates multiple stakeholder input, : facilitates multiple stakeholder input,
participation participation [complete][complete] DocuMentorDocuMentor & & AssessmentCompilerAssessmentCompiler: manages, : manages,
integrates, synthesizes information integrates, synthesizes information [in progress][in progress]
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STAKEHOLDER CONCERNSSTAKEHOLDER CONCERNS
How has climate of the mid & upper How has climate of the mid & upper Atlantic region changed in recent past?Atlantic region changed in recent past?
How well do the models work?How well do the models work?How well do they simulate How well do they simulate thisthis climate? climate?
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CLIMATE TOOLSCLIMATE TOOLS
View current and historic climate View current and historic climate by region, countyby region, county
Choose among 7 Global Climate Choose among 7 Global Climate ModelsModels
Analyze T or ppt for region, countyAnalyze T or ppt for region, county View model’s projections over timeView model’s projections over time Compare with other modelsCompare with other models
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CLIMATE VARIABLESCLIMATE VARIABLES
TemperatureTemperature
PrecipitationPrecipitation
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TIME PERIODSTIME PERIODS Seasons: DJF, MAM, JJA, SONSeasons: DJF, MAM, JJA, SON
30-year periods: 30-year periods: 1961-19901961-1990 2010-20392010-2039 2040-20692040-2069 2070-20992070-2099
Model outputs only for monthly average Model outputs only for monthly average (time scales < one month NOT considered)(time scales < one month NOT considered)
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EXAMPLE TIME SERIESEXAMPLE TIME SERIESTOWANDA, PA (HCN DATA)TOWANDA, PA (HCN DATA)
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MODEL EVALUATIONMODEL EVALUATION
Description of climate models used Description of climate models used
(currently 5, planning on 7)(currently 5, planning on 7)
Modeled and observed climate Modeled and observed climate variables for 1961-1990: variables for 1961-1990: seasonal averages seasonal averages (planning) interannual variability(planning) interannual variability
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7 GLOBAL CLIMATE 7 GLOBAL CLIMATE MODELSMODELS Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
((HCCPRHCCPR)) Australia's Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Australia's Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial
Research Organisation (Research Organisation (CSIROCSIRO)) Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDLGFDL)) Canadian Center for Climate Modeling and Analysis Canadian Center for Climate Modeling and Analysis
((CCCCCC)) Center for Climate Research Studies (Center for Climate Research Studies (CCSRCCSR)/ )/
National Institute for Environmental Studies (National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIESNIES) ) Max Planck Institute für Meteorologie (Max Planck Institute für Meteorologie (MPIfMMPIfM)) National Centre for Atmospheric Research (National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCARNCAR))
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MODEL EVALUATIONMODEL EVALUATIONLITTLE FALLS, NYLITTLE FALLS, NY
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EVALUATION OVER REGIONEVALUATION OVER REGION
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MODEL PROJECTIONSMODEL PROJECTIONS
Description of model inputs Description of model inputs (greenhouse gas concentrations)(greenhouse gas concentrations)
Projected climateProjected climate
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IPCC CLIMATE SCENARIO GENERATIONIPCC CLIMATE SCENARIO GENERATION
CO2
concentrations
Climatevariables:
Temperature,precipitation,
humidity, winds,etc. Population growth,
economy, behavior, etc.(IPCC “storyline”:
A2, B2, etc.)
CO2
emissions
Carbon Cycle Model Physical climate Model
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2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
RESULTING CORESULTING CO22 CONCENTRATIONS CONCENTRATIONS
Used by CARA
IPCC (2001)year
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PROJECTIONS, LITTLE FALLS, NYPROJECTIONS, LITTLE FALLS, NY
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INFORMATION INFORMATION INTEGRATIONINTEGRATION
Climate & Land UseClimate & Land Use Socio-economic factorsSocio-economic factors Environmental qualityEnvironmental quality
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