R6 Climate Change R6 Climate Change UpdateUpdate

Marc KramerSenior Climate Change Scientist,

R6Specialist Meeting

November 2011

New IPCC Report Due Out

Nov 18th

In 2007, when the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change issued its last large report on global warming, it used different scenarios for carbon dioxide pollution and said the rate of warming would be based on the rate of pollution. Boden said the latest figures put global emissions higher than the worst case projections from the climate panel.

[Revised] forecasts [with new emissions figures] put global temperatures rising between 4 and 11 degrees Fahrenheit by the end of the century with the best estimate at 7.5 degrees.

Even though global warming skeptics have attacked the climate change panel as being too alarmist, scientists have generally found their predictions too conservative, Reilly said. He said his university worked on emissions scenarios, their likelihood, and what would happen. The IPCC's worst case scenario was only about in the middle of what MIT calculated are likely scenarios.

• Communicating climate change to non-specialists

Forest Service Response to Climate Change:

The “New” Climate Change• Translated through stressors

– risk management

• Blended into sustainable development• Integration of adaptation and mitigation• Normalizing sensitivity

– learning to live with it

• New focus on opportunities• Precautionary principle “flipped”

– if uncertain, then act

Risk Management and Climate Change

Monitor for Ecological Surprise

Expect the Unexpected

FS Roadmap for Responding to Climate Change

R6 Principles for Climate Response Following the National Roadmap for Responding to Climate Change

FS-957b 2011

• Maintain biodiversity and ecosystem function• Sustain multiple benefits• Consider scale• Embrace partnerships – “All Lands Approach”• Manage risk• Consider human communities• Build from established programs• Provide incentives and examples

USDA Strategic Plan 2010-15Strategic Goal 2 - Ensure our national forests and private working lands are conserved, restored, and made more resilient to climate change, while enhancing our water resources. Objective 2.2 – Lead efforts to mitigate and adapt to cc Performance Measure 2.2.3 - Percent of National Forests in compliance with a climate change adaptation and mitigation strategy

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Climate Change Scorecard

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Climate Change Scorecard

2 Rounds of ScorecardReporting Complete in 2011

We now have a baselineof ‘where we are’ …

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Climate Change Scorecard

2012 Goals:

Communicate the linkages and benefits of CC activities to FLT and RLT.

-Forest Plan Revision-NEPA and CC

-IntegrateRestoration/Conservation Priorities:-WCF-TCF-TRACS-Minimum Roads-Restoration-Travel Management

Planned Regional Activities in 2012: Focus on vulnerability assessment

-Monthly calls, coordination field visits and support for CC activities on forests

-Education modules for non-specialists

-Vulnerability assessment toolbox forests can tier to (2012 focus on stream flow, stream temperature, snowpack and soil moisture vulnerability).

-Regional carbon assessment forests can tier to (consistent with National assessments)

-Incorporate climate change components into Forest Plan Revision

-Work on sustainable operations component (Katie Newcomb)

-Build partnerships at the regional level with state/private/tribal/federal agencies –an all lands approach.

-Ecosystem services (Nikola Smith)

-Test new approaches through a regional adaptive management network in coordination with PNW

Regional guidance on 2012 CC activities:

-Form climate change teams -Specialists can lead the way

-Work with your climate change coordinator and FLT to develop a Climate Change Plan on your forest 2011-early 2012

-Forge new partnerships and alliances to tackle climate change

-Integrate climate change considerations in with restoration and fuelmanagement activities

Planned regional activities in 2013: focus on adaptation strategy

-Build on existing efforts from 2012

-Focus on integration with other priority programs and climate changeadaptation.

-Conduct workshops throughout the region on integration of these varioustools.

-Work together so that climate change considerations are integral to all aspects of agency operations and all employees by 2015 !!!!!!

Action Plan for the Nation’s Forests and Grasslands

REVISE (or Amend)

ASSESS

Adaptation Strategies

Assess Vulnerability of Key Resources to Climate Change and Other Stressors

Monitor Climate Impacts

Monitor Carbon

Monitor Effectiveness

MONITOR

Climate Change Scorecard Activitiesand the proposed Planning Rule

Engagement Collaboration

The cause is clear, and the solution is obvious …

To fix this problem, we must fundamentally change the way our economy prices goods and services so that the cost of environmental degradation is embedded in the cost of production…

If we do that, everything else will follow.

Forbes Magazine, Steve Zwick November 4th, 2011

Thank you