r5895 93 Planet Action - Progress Report

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Modelling and monitoring mountain permafrost in the Russian Altay

Mountains

SummaryThe Russian Altay Mountains an area containing discontinuous and continuous permafrost is

scattered with thousands of archaeological monuments dating back as far as 4000 BC. Among them

are the remarkable Scythian kurgans. These are mounds, compromising coarse blocks overlaying a

burial chamber. Their unique composition enhances the temperature lowering effect in winter time

thanks to additional convective cooling caused by free air flow in the pores of the coarse stone cover.

This effect, together with their location in permafrost, creates excellent preservation conditions,

enabling several excavations of ice-mummies with intact skin and clothes.

A possible global change however, endangers these mummies, as a warming climate would lead to

an altitudinal shift in permafrost zones. Therefore, in order to take preservation measures, it is

necessary to have a detailed image of the local permafrost conditions, and a more thoroughly

understanding and quantification of the convective cooling effect.

Introduction

At this moment the first result of the project are getting together. One year of data was successfully

downloaded last summer, giving a first glimpse on the thermal regime beneath different landcovers

and topographic situations in the Russian Altay Mountains. The results clearly show the cooling effect

of the kurgans and the dramatic impact of snow cover dynamics on the ground thermal regime andlandcover patterns.

Not only the temperature data is being processed, also the Spot imagery is subject to preprocessing

and classification at this moment of speaking. The ground data, gathered last summer, is used to

geometrically correct the image, to serve as training pixels, and make validation possible.

Also the modelling part makes a good progress. A good correlation was showed between the

interpolated land surface temperature values and the ground surface temperatures. However further

research is needed to examine this relationship more thoroughly.

Overall Project Goals

Estimate the current permafrost distribution in the Russian Altay Mountains:The first year of ground data just arrived, enabling the creation of a permafrost distribution

model. However 2 years of data are necessary, to obtain reliable models and making

validation possible. (End: December 2010)

Calculate the current ground thermal regime of the different kurgans in the area, regardingtheir topographic position and dimensions

Also for this goal, 2 year of data is needed to make reliable estimations. The first data set

clearly shows the lowering effect of the kurgans, and their ability to react very fast to

changing air temperatures. Last summer extra kurgan installations were made, which willgive us a more profound image about their thermal regime. (End: December 2010)
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Calculate the evolution of the permafrost area during the last 30 years and determine futurescenarios based on IPCC-climate prognosis for the 21

stcentury.

This requires first a reliable and validated current distribution. (End: December 2011)

Assess the vulnerability of the kurgans in the area, and calculate their defrost-point.Last step in the project (End: December 2011)

Satellite Image Analysis and Findings

Ground Temperature Results

In the 2009 summer, data from 18 HOBO data-loggers and 78 iButtons was successfully downloaded

and stored in a database. A first glimpse shows a big variety of temperature profiles, related to their

topographical position, surface cover and thermal conductivity of the soil layers. Below for example,

the contrast between the surface temperature in a kurgan and its surroundings is presented. More

trends and a deeper study of their effect however, will be examined during the upcoming processing-

steps.

Figure . Top: overview of the Ulandryk-II burial complex . The location of the different measurement sites is marked with a

black dot. Bottom: The 3 temperature logging sites


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Figure The thermal regime for the 3 logging sites as recorded by Hobo data-loggers and iButtons at different depths. At

first, note the lag in time with depth, and the attenuation of the signal. Secondly, temperatures in the kurgan are at depths

of 45 anc 80 cm considerably lower than in the neighbourhood due to convective cooling. This is in contrast to summer

times , during which temperatures are very similar.

Satellite Image Analysis

SPOT

During the 2009 expedition ground control points and ground truth data were gathered in order to

classify the Spot imagery which weve got in the framework of the Planet Action program. Kevin

Baker, master student at Ghent University, accompanied the expedition in the framework of his

master thesis. He measured ground control points and referencing points necessary to georeference

and classify satellite imagery. Such a detailed classification (at 20m pixel level) would be a major

contribution to the project as at first, no qualitative classification exists yet, and therefore it might

bring us new insights how the vegetation is zonated in the study area.

Secondly, when combined with the obtained ground temperature data, such a classification can be

used as an input for a statistical permafrost model at large scale. This approach will almost certainly

work at the Ukok Plateau where permafrost is very closely related to topographical location and

surface cover. Finally, if we compare the obtained map with older imagery, we might check for

changes in the landscape.

To obtain these goals, Kevin measured 106 reference points and 23 GCPs. GCPs were chosen at

locations which can be seen on satellite imagery: crossroads, bridges, river-crossing. For the

reference points however, spots with a uniform surface cover were measured, which will be used as


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training pixels for different classification algorithm. Furthermore sketches and panoramic-pictures

from different viewpoints were registered and will serve as additional information.

FigureMap showing the locations of the reference and ground control points as measured by master student Kevin Baker

during the 2009 expedition. This map comprises both the points measured in the Dzhazator-Tarkhata area as on the Ukok

Plateau.

MODIS

During the first year of the project, when ground data was not yet available, attention was given to

use interpolated MODIS LST values as an input layer for permafrost modelling. Furthermore the

MODIS snow product was used to determine the amount of snow days in the Kosh Agatch Region.

Based on these results a first estimation of the permafrost distribution could be obtained, by using

isotherms and transfer functions: a common statistical methodology in permafrost studies

FigureMap showing the number of snow covered days in the Kosh Agatch Region


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FigureLeft: yearly average LST in the Altay Repulic. Right: Permafrost distribution map based on isotherms.

Activities Undertaken

In the summer of 2009, a second joint Belgian-Russian expedition was conducted in the Kosh-Agatch

region (Altay Republic, Russia). During the expedition, temperature data-loggers - programmed in the

summer of 2008 - were retrieved, downloaded and replaced or reinstalled from their respectively

location in and around the valleys of Dzhazator andTarkhata. In addition ground control points

necessary for Spot imagery geometric correction, and ground truth data for classification purposes

were measured with hand held GPS devices.

Furthermore, additional measuring devices and ground control points were installed and measured

on the Ukok Plateau, a mountainous area located close to the Russian-Chinese-Kazach-Mongolian

border, and renowned for its rich archaeological context.

Challenges or difficulties encountered

Logistics remains the most difficult part in this project. As we require a lot of field data, extensive

field campaigns are necessary to provide this data. However, as we have a good cooperation with the

Gorno-Altaisk State University, every expedition is well organized, and going to the Altay is not only

work but also fun.

Secondly, as we need at least one, but preferably two years of data, results are rather limited in the

first 2 years of the project. Therefore we are looking forward to next year, when more reliable

conclusions can be stated.

Finally, the geometric correction of the Spot satellite imagery was a difficult task. As we are limited to

take GCPs in the river valleys, an accurate orthorectification with DEM was needed to remove the

geometric distortions, created by elevation differences up to 2000m.

What is next?

During the upcoming months, the calculation of a permafrost distribution map, based on the firstdata results will be main objective, together with classifying the Spot imagery. The classification


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results will serve as an input layer for more detailed permafrost mapping, and understanding of the

thermal regime in the Altay Mountains. Results will then be updated, and validated with data

gathered in the 2010 expedition, which will be held in July. With this data, results can then be

published.

ConclusionAt this moment, the project is in full process. The ground data retrieved during the expeditions isbeing processed, and models are calculated. Next summer a last expedition will be organized to

collect all the remaining necessary data. Once all this data is gathered, results can be finalized, and

published.

r5895 93 Planet Action - Progress Report

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