“R = AC + EId + (E + C).PaC + ExS”- a formula for retention?

Ormond SimpsonVisiting professor OPNZ

‘Retention in the UKOU’

1. OU student retention – the current picture

2. The ‘Retention Formula’

UKOU in brief220,000 students

o 500 courses lasting between 6 to 12 months

o Students take 6 - 12 courses for a degree

Courses assessed by: continuous assessment + final

exam - both have to be passed

Student Retention in the Open University

New student retention on their first course

= 55%

Overall retention to the degree= 35%

Student flow – assignments

100 62 57 52

38

43

48

7 2

5

ASSIGNMENT RIVERGRAM100 students start the course. At each assignment some drop out and enter the ‘exit’ channel. A very few re-enter the ‘progress’ channel having skipped the previous assignment

Assignment 1 Assignment 2 Assignment 3

Progress

Exit

Student flow – entire course

Exit

Progress

Exit

Students re-entering by various routes

Students leaving by various routes

Around 14 different exit routes in all

Variations in course retentionT302

T331

MU120

W300

K224

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

70

% getting to exam

% p

assi

ng e

xam

Sifters

Heavy goings

Fair

Knock Backers

40 50 60 80 90 100

Retention – long term trendsT100, T101. T102 and T172 historic

exam and ‘get to exam’ pass rates

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Pass rate

'Get' rate

ECA

Warren , Horan and Simpson (2005)

ref T100

6567697173757779818385

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Re-registration rates (%) of new students completing the previous

year

Cumulative graduation rates (%)

by year of entry

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

7019

71

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

197119761981

Retention - what doesn't work?

o Pushing all the buttons at once and hoping

something workso Assuming good practice spreads

organicallyo Restricting research into support issueso Assuming work can be entirely faculty

led Veronique Johnston (2002)

The ‘retention goulash’ approachThe ‘retention goulash’ approach

The ‘Retention Formula’

Retention = AC + EId + (E + C).PaC + ExS

AC = Appropriate Course Choice, EId = Early Identification of vulnerable

students (E + C) = (Early and Continuous) PaC = Proactive Contact ExS = External Support

(the Simpson-Seidmann formula…?!)

AC = Appropriate Course

Taster Packs - samples of course materials and assignments

Students’ and Tutors’ Comments - Comments on courses they’ve taken or taught

Diagnostic quizzes

The Taster Pack

Taster Pack contents

Course selection

Sample assignment

Student’s answer

Tutor’s comments

Specimen exam

question

16161616

Student course reviews

Self-assessed diagnostic quizzes

• Course specific quizzes - maths, languages etc

• General quizzes- humanities social science business studies etc

HOW GOOD ARE YOUR CHANCES OF PASSING?

Initial Score : 60points

1.Are you male or female?Male : Subtract 5 Female: No change

Revised Score: points

2. How old are you?Under 30 : Subtract 13 Age 30 or above : No change

Revised Score: points

3. What level is this course?Level 1: Add 23 Level 2 : Add 11Other: No change

Revised Score: points

4. What Faculty is this course? A : Add 16 D or L: Add 8 E or K: Add 7 M : Add 6 S : Subtract 3 T : Add 1 Other: No change

Revised Score: points

5. What is the credit rating of this course?15pts : Subtract 23 30pts : Subtract 9 60pts : No change

Revised Score: points

6. How many courses are you taking in total this year?1 course : Add 5 2 or more : No change

Revised Score: points

7. What are your current highest educational qualifications?Degree or equivalent : Add 17A-level or equivalent : Add 12O level, GCSE or equivalent : No changeNone to CSE : Subtract 2 Other : No change

Revised Score: points

8. How would you classify your occupation? Working- professional occupation : Add 10Working- other occupation : Add 5Not working or other: No change

Revised Score: points

FINAL SCORE pts

How did you score?• 100 or above: (70%+ chance of success) The outlook is very

bright for you. You’ll undoubtedly have your share of challenges but you should be able to get things off to a good start.

• 75 to 99: (50-60% chance of success) This will be a challenge you’ve taken on and it will be useful to see if you can increase your point score in some way. For example do think about changing to a lower level course just for the first year – you can step up the pace later on. If you are taking more than one course then again do think of switching to just one.

• Under 75: (50% or lower chance of success) You’ll still be able succeed but if you can increase your score that would really improve your chances. You may not want to change sex (!) but you could change your course, increase your current educational qualifications by taking a short course of some kind – the ‘Openings’ courses are ideal – and so on.

EId = Early Identification of vulnerable students

‘Binary regression analysis’ - calculates a ‘predicted probability of success’ for every student.

02000400060008000

100001200014000

0-10 11-20 21-30 31-40 41-50 51-60 61-70 71-80 81-90 91-100predicted probability of success bandnu

mbe

r of s

tude

nts

in b

and

EId = Early Identification - accuracy = Early Identification - accuracy

0102030405060708090

0 to 10 10 to 20 20 to 30 30 to 40 40 to 50 50 to 60 60 to 70 70 to 80 80 to 90

predicted probability of success % actual success rate %

E(PaC) = Early Proactive Contact

- taking initiative to contact individual students interactively as early as possible.

‘Student self-referral does not work as a mode of promoting persistence. Students who need services the most refer themselves the least. ‘Effective retention services take the initiative in outreach and timely interventions.’

(Anderson, US)

2525

Proactive Motivational Support in OU – results of pre-course contactYear Students

in trialIncrease in retention of

experimental group over control (% points)

2002 2866 3.9%

2003 1354 5.1%

2004 931 4.2%

2005 10,131 7.6%

Totals 5151 5.04%

2626

(i) Institutional retention activity - costs

An activity costing £P per student increases student retention by n%

- then the ‘cost per student retained’ = £100P/n

Eg UKOU an initial ‘proactive motivational contact’ to new students: - costs £10 (NZ$30) per student - increases retention by up to 4%

- So cost per student retained is £100x10/4 = £250 (NZ$750)

2727

(ii) Institutional retention activity- benefits (OU example)

• Student fee income – neutral against costs

• HEFCE grant income in OU – about £1100 per student completing each year

• Savings on recruitment – recruitment cost per new student ~£500. ~£300 maybe to replace dropout

= total benefit of about £1400 per student retained

2828

Return on investment in UKOU of a ‘proactive motivational

contact’:1. Cost of activity = £250 per student retained2. Benefit of activity = £1400 per student retained

So RoI ~ 1400/250 = 560%

Net benefit ~ £1150 per student retained

1. 35,000 new OU students each year2. 4% increase in retention = 1400 students

retained

So net benefit to institution ~ £1.6m pa

C(PaC) = Continuous Proactive contact

But how much?

Too little = ineffective?

Too much = too expensive?

30303030

Number of Proactive contacts per course (Burt 2007)

0

20

40

60

80

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

OU student satisfaction vs number of proactive contacts received

Satisfaction scale %

Proactive Contact - how much? – (1)

Proactive Contact - how much? – (2)

- - also Case and Elliot (US 1997):

2-5 proactive calls gave 15% increase in retention

32323232

Retention = AC + EId + (E + C).PaC + ExS ExS = External Support

-- OU survey of sources of support to studentsOU survey of sources of support to students

Importance to students

Source

Most important

Least important

From families and friendsFrom tutorsFrom other students From employersFrom the institution directly

(Asbee and Simpson 2001)

ExSExS = External Support = External Support

‘Black Box’ research (before dropout)- importance of close, support networks

- (Temperton, 1998)

ExS = External Support

Student-student support 1Student-student support 1

‘Student mentoring’ (students who’ve completed a course

mentoring students who are on that course)

- increases retention by 35% over non-mentored group (Boyle 1998)

ExS = External Support

Student-student support 2Student-student support 2

Computer conferencing

- But not always popular?

ExS = External Support

Student-student support 3

‘Study Dating’ (students on the same course helping

each other) - ‘Find a Study Friend’

38383838

4141

Where do we go from here?

1. What kind of proactive contactis most effective?

2. What is biggest barrier to increasing retention?

3. What might be a long term goal?

‘‘Future directions….Future directions….

‘International Centre for Distance Student Retention Studies’