Quimica mundial

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  • 2013, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent.

    Mark Eramo

    Vice President, Chemical Insights

    Houston, TX USA

    mark.eramo@ihs.com

    VMA Market Outlook Workshop

    Session 9 - Petrochemicals

    August 8- 9, 2013

    San Diego, CA

    Global Renaissance

    Challenges and Opportunities

    State of the Global

    Petrochemical Industry

  • 2013, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent.

    Technical + Specialties

    Worlds leading business research & forecasting service

    Provider of chemical process economics for the global chemical industry

    Trusted authority on chlor-alkali, vinyl chloride, and bleaching chemicals

    Market and pricing data

    100-year information supplier

    Authoritative chemical business news

    Information resource for high-level industry executives & professionals

    Commercial + Strategic

    Market planning & consulting advisory services

    Analytical & technical expertise

    IHS Chemical

    The IHS Chemicals Business Line

    Best-In-Class Brands Brought Together

  • 2013, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent.

    Consulting

    Advisory

    Consulting leveraging data, knowledge,

    analytics & insights

    Chemical

    Insight Deep insights & knowledge that

    leverage data, analysis and platforms

    Technology &

    Analytics

    New delivery systems and analytics & tools

    (internal & external)

    Same-Day &

    Information

    Efficient delivery of high-velocity, quality-

    assured content

    Converged solutions

    delivered with and across world-class

    technology & platforms

    Leading integrated global information supplier and

    consultancy providing end-to-end solutions leveraged

    across the full breadth of IHS capabilities

    The IHS Chemicals Business Line

    Aligned to deliver a broad array of services

    Intro_General_AM.pptx

  • 2013, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent.

    Chemical Industry

    Basics

    Impact of Energy

    Changing Demand

    Trends

    Shift in New Capacity

    Trade Volumes are

    Growing

    Profit Cycle is Mixed

    Agenda: Challenges & Trends In Gas

    Based Petrochemicals

  • 2013, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent.

    Supply Capacity is being

    added or transformed

    Higher Cost units are closing down

    Demand Recovery limited

    to fast-growth centers, most

    others see little or no increase

    Earnings Energy cost in

    control extreme product cost

    differences based on location, technology

    Industry Continues to Evolve into a New World Order

    Current State of the Global Industry

  • 2013, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent.

    The Chemical Industry is a key

    enabler of modern living: Medical, Transportation, Construction,

    Packaging, Food Processing, Water

    Distribution, Fuel, etc

    Investments driven by cost

    advantage and/or proximity to

    demand centers

    Demand growth accelerating in

    the developing regions

    Strategy development requires

    complete understanding of the

    value-chain

    Chemical Industry Building Blocks

    Ethylene Propylene

    Benzene Methanol

    Chlorine

  • 2013, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent.

    Ethylene, Propylene, Methanol

    Expanding At A Rapid Pace

    Ethylene is the

    largest of the basic

    chemical building

    blocks

    Ethylene, propylene

    and methanol are

    expanding at a rapid

    pacedriven by

    shale in North

    America

    Benzene and chlorine

    showing more

    modest growth

    0

    25

    50

    75

    100

    125

    150

    175

    200

    225

    2010 2015 2020

    Benzene Chlorine Propylene

    Methanol Ethylene

    Basic Chemical Capacity, Million Metric Tons

  • 2013, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent.

    Natural

    Gas

    Crude

    Oil

    Hydrocarbon Feedstock Costs:

    Key Driver In Chemicals Manufacturing

    Naphtha

    Gas Oil

    Condensate

    Propane

    Ethane

    Butane

    Pygas Benzene

    Toluene/Xylene

    Heavy Aromatics

    C5/C6 Non Aromatics

    Fuel Oil

    Ethylene

    Unit

    Gas Processing

    Unit

    REFORMER BTX Extraction

    Raffinate FCC

    Refinery

    Steam

    Reformer

    Methanol

    Synthesis

    SynGas

    Propylene

    Ethylene

    Butadiene Mixed Butylenes

    Methane/Hydrogen

    Benzene

    Toluene

    Xylene

    Propylene

    Methanol

  • 2013, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent.

    North America Energy Trends

    Crude Oil versus Natural Gas

    0%

    20%

    40%

    60%

    80%

    100%

    120%

    0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    10

    12

    14

    16

    18

    20

    00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

    Crude (WTI) Natural Gas Gas as % of Crude

    Gas as % of Crude Dollars Per Million Btu

  • 2013, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent.

    North America Energy Trends

    Crude Oil versus Natural Gas

    0%

    20%

    40%

    60%

    80%

    100%

    120%

    0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    10

    12

    14

    16

    18

    20

    00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

    Crude (WTI) Natural Gas Gas as % of Crude

    Gas as % of Crude Dollars Per Million Btu

  • 2013, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent.

    Tomorrows Energy Market Creates Opportunities

    & Threats for Global Chemicals

    Opportunities

    Backward & forward

    integration for those with

    scale & capital

    Reversal of off-shoring,

    especially for certain high-

    value or logistically

    challenged sectors

    Investment in infrastructure

    to support growing inter-

    regional shipments

    http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Oc_wfTqru9Y/T7p9ETCmOVI/AAAAAAAAAFw/KdZjWRxyya0/s1600/pot-of-gold.jpg

  • 2013, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent.

    Tomorrows Energy Market Creates Opportunities

    & Threats for Global Chemicals

    Threats

    High-cost supply

    rationalization

    Commoditization of

    specialty product grades

    Market entry by new and

    competitive players

    Large regional variations

    in both supply and

    demand growth

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Dszpics1.jpg

  • 2013, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent.

    Petrochemical Value-Chain

    From The Wellhead to Wal-Mart

    Consumers Retail Consumer

    Goods

    Energy Derivatives Petrochemicals

  • 2013, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent.

    Strong economic growth

    supports basic chemical

    demand growth via

    consumer goods

    Modest growth in 2012

    suggesting weak

    consumer demand

    Emerging markets are

    driving tomorrows

    demand growth

    China dynamics are

    changing, but remains

    critical to most markets

    Demand for Basic Chemicals Driven By

    Durable/Non-durable Goods

  • 2013, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent.

    The Rise of the Emerging Market Consumer

    Ratio of Domestic

    Consumption to

    Global GDP

    0%

    5%

    10%

    15%

    20%

    25%

    2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

    U.S. Western Europe BRIC

    The share of Global GDP

    related to consumption is

    converging in noted markets

    Emerging markets share will

    match that of U.S. & Europe

    within the next 7 years

    Message to producers is

    clear: do not ignore the

    absolute size of U.S. and

    European market, but for

    rapid growth you need to

    look to the emerging world

  • 2013, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written