Questions - Fishpool seminar...

Questions - Fishpool seminar

Bergen

Paul Aandahl, Seafood Analyst, Norwegian Seafood Council

22.11.2018

Global supply

22.11.2018 Presentasjonstittel 3

Global Trade Estimates – Atlantic Salmon

[CELLRANGE]

0

200 000

400 000

600 000

800 000

1 000 000

1 200 000

1 400 000

1 600 000

1 800 000

2 000 000

jan-okt jan-okt

2017 2018

Volume wfe

[CELLRANGE]

0

2 000 000

4 000 000

6 000 000

8 000 000

10 000 000

12 000 000

14 000 000

EUR USD

Value

2017 2018

0 %

Average value* + 3,5 %

-40000

-20000

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

Australia Canada Chile Faroese Isl. Great Brittain Norway


Change in Global Trade Jan-Oct Estimate

+ 128 000 MT WFE


Average weight – Atlantic salmon


Share of global production, 6+ Atlantic salmon


Change in Global Trade –estimate Jan – Oct

USA

+36 000 mt

Russia

+20 000 mt

China

+15 000 mt

EU

+53 000 mt

Most important changes:

• Strong growth from Chile to the USA, Russia

and China

• Growth from Norway to EU, while export to

Asia is reduced


China – market development Jan - Oct

Mt wfe /+12% / +7000 mt

Vietnam

- 18000 mt

Norway

+ 10000 mt

Great Britain

- 1000 mt

Faroese

Islands

+ 1000 mt

Chile

+12000 mt

Canada

+ 2000 mt

HongKong

+ 4000 mt

Australia

- 2000 mt

Norwegian Export

22.11.2018 Norwegian export of salmon and trout 10

Total Norwegian salmon – export per month

+7,5%

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

Volu

me,

round w

eig

ht

2016 2017 2018

22.11.2018 Norwegian export of salmon and trout 11

Norwegian salmon – 10 biggest export markets YTD October - change from

2017 [CELLRANGE]

[CELLRANGE]

[CELLRANGE]

[CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE]

[CELLRANGE]

[CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE]

[CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE]

[CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE]

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

Volu

me in t

onnes,

Round w

eig

ht

YTD 2018 October


Norwegian Export of Salmon to Poland

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

jan feb mar apr mai jun jul aug sep okt

MT

WF

E

2017 2018

Jan-Oct

2017 120 629

2018 139 662

Jan-Oct Oct

2017 13 % 14 %

2018 14 % 17 %

Share of Norw. Export


Is it possible to calculate the change in storage in Poland?

- Trade

- Domestic Consumption

Import

- Export

= Consumption + Change in Storage

Seafood consumer insight- data

more than 25 countries

Paneldata from 14 countries

Trade statistics from more than 50 countries

Preferance, trends etc. Information from 1988

Best Seafood

Database in the World

Tradeflow analysis

Consumer surveys

Media surveillance

Country reports

Seafood studies In dept insight in key markets

Media analysis

Exportdata

«There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned

lies, and statistics.»

Mark Twain (1835 – 1910)

https://no.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Twain

https://no.wikipedia.org/wiki/1835

https://no.wikipedia.org/wiki/1910

How much is imported? Import statistics (Eurostat)

- 3 monthly delay

Wrong Country origin

Export statistics Norway 1 - 3 days delay

Other nations + 6 weeks


Poland – Supply Several data sources

Answer?

Estimate?

Export statistics Delay 3 months

Alternative Import statistics from country of destination

Germany, most important market (60% i 2016) – Same delay as Poland


Poland - Export

Poland - Consumption


Consumer panel data 6 weeks delay

Lack out of home consumption

Calculation factors back to raw material

weight

Answer

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

jan feb mar apr mai jun jul aug sep okt nov des

Mt W

FE

Supply

Import 2017 Import 2018


Poland - status

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000


MT

WF

E

Supply

Import 2017 Import 2018 Estimate 2018


Poland - Status

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000


Export

Eksport 2017 Eksport 2018 Estimat


Poland – Status

Trend +14%

0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

jan feb mar apr mai jun jul aug sep okt

2017 2018


Import

– Export

= Consumption + Change in Inventory

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%



Percentage Distribution of Salmon Conumption in Poland*

*Based Upon Consumer panel data 2017

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000


2018_alt


Estimated Consumption of Salmon in Poland

-6 000

-4 000

-2 000

0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000


2017 2018 est.


Estimated Change in Storage Change in Storage July – October

2017: 11 448

2018 est: 16 438

Import - Too high because of reduced import from other countries Export - Can it be too low? What about the consumption? - Too high in october? Storage?


Can these results be trusted?

Adjust

Demand has been artificially high Means reduced demand coming months

Effect on price Premise: reduce storage back to same level as last year within 2 months (approx. 3% volume

demanded volume)

App. < 2 Nok/kg*


What Effect will an increase of 5000 Mt WFE of Storage

have?

*Model developed by Capia AS for the Norwegian seafood council

Is there any change in the price elasticity in

the short and long run, and can we see any

specific changes from before and after

2013?

20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500 1

98

8

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

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96

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20

00

20

01

20

02

20

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07

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20

10

20

11

20

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20

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17

Norw

. E

xp

. P

rice

Pro

duction

Volu

me

10

00

MT

Axis Title

Volume NOK/kg

30

Global Development Atlantic Salmon


Change in Global trade and Norwegian Export Price

-40 %

-30 %

-20 %

-10 %

0 %

10 %

20 %

30 %

40 %

50 %

-10 % -5 % 0 % 5 % 10 % 15 % 20 % 25 % 30 %

Price

Volume

2017 2018

2009

2015 2008

2005

2004

2014

2003

2007 2011

2012

2010 2006

2016 2013


Short term vs long term elastisity (change in % volume /1 % change in price)

Price

Volume

Demand

Long term

Short term

Short term elasticity will be lower than long term elasticity

- shock in supply will have stronger price effect

in the short term than in the long term


Price elasticity

• The EU market is more elastic than the Asian market

• The Asian Market is becoming more elastic

Demand Growth


Change in demand for atlantic salmon

-10,00%

-5,00%

0,00%

5,00%

10,00%

15,00%

20,00%

25,00%

30,00%

20

03

-12

-01

20

04

-06

-01

20

04

-12

-01

20

05

-06

-01

20

05

-12

-01

20

06

-06

-01

20

06

-12

-01

20

07

-06

-01

20

07

-12

-01

20

08

-06

-01

20

08

-12

-01

20

09

-06

-01

20

09

-12

-01

20

10

-06

-01

20

10

-12

-01

20

11

-06

-01

20

11

-12

-01

20

12

-06

-01

20

12

-12

-01

20

13

-06

-01

20

13

-12

-01

20

14

-06

-01

20

14

-12

-01

20

15

-06

-01

20

15

-12

-01

20

16

-06

-01

20

16

-12

-01

20

17

-06

-01

20

17

-12

-01

20

18

-06

-01

Demand Shift*

EU US *12 month average

Source: Capia AS


Change in demand for atlantic salmon

-10,00%

-5,00%

0,00%

5,00%

10,00%

15,00%

20,00%

25,00%

30,00%

20

03

-12

-01

20

04

-06

-01

20

04

-12

-01

20

05

-06

-01

20

05

-12

-01

20

06

-06

-01

20

06

-12

-01

20

07

-06

-01

20

07

-12

-01

20

08

-06

-01

20

08

-12

-01

20

09

-06

-01

20

09

-12

-01

20

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-06

-01

20

10

-12

-01

20

11

-06

-01

20

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-01

20

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-06

-01

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-12

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-01

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-06

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-12

-01

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18

-06

-01

Demand Shift*

EU US

2020

One example -

Value added salmon product



The Smoked Salmon Market in the EU 2018 vs 2017

Source: GFK, Europanel


The consumer frequency for smoked salmon is going down in

France

August

2012

May

2017

September

2018


People are returning to the fresh natural salmon –example France

September

2018

August

2012

May

2017

Ending


Increasing Share of Salmon for raw and

out of home consumption in 2018 -

and I expect this trend to continue ..

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