Quebec Political Landscape 2014 2014 Election Analysis

Montreal, April 2014

Table of Contents

Quebec Political Landscape: Election 2014

-Background

-Polling

-The Campaign

-The Verdict

-The New Government

National Assembly at dissolution

PQ PLQ CAQ QS Independents

Background

Elections are called on March 5 against a backdrop of basic identity politics and political haggling over the PQ’s proposed budget.

Premier Marois’s popularity is bolstered by her solid performance managing the Lac Megantic tragedy and the popularity of the Charter of Values outside of urban centers.

At that time, the Liberals appeared to struggle in defining their stance on key identity issues.

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Sep 12 Dec 12 Mar 13 Jun 13 Sep 13 Oct 13 Dec 13 Jan 14 Feb 14 Mar 14 March 31 2014

PLQ PQ CAQ

Voting Intentions

41%

19%

29%

Polls showed the PQ gradually losing its edge as the campaign raged on

Source: Léger Marketing & CROP

The Campaign

Turning Points WEEK 1

Liberal leader proudly introduces a group of star candidates including Dr. Gaétan Barrette, former

Investissement Quebec president Jacques Daoust and the economists Carlos Leitao and Martin

Coiteux.

WEEK 2

Star candidate Pierre-Karl Péladeau wreaks havoc among PQ troops by declaring intention to hold a

referendum in the next mandate, provoking a heavy shift to the Liberal Party.

WEEK 3

1st debate - PQ’s Marois does not succeed at calming anxiety around a possible referendum.

CAQ and Quebec Solidaire vigorously attacking Marois plays into the Liberal’s hands.

WEEK 4

2nd debate - Forceful attacks by CAQ’s Legault yield a boost to his campaign

Ethical issues and an off-shore bank account held during the 1990’s come to haunt Couillard and the

Liberals

WEEK 5

Polls show a significant shift in favour of CAQ among francophone voters at the PQ’s expense. The

Liberals maintain their lead

The Verdict

A Resounding Liberal Victory

Source: Radio-Canada, DGEQ

Seats in National Assembly

PLQ 70 PQ 30 CAQ 22 Québec Solidaire 3

National Assembly Composition

Share of the Vote

2012 2014

PLQ 31.2% 40.5%

PQ 31.9% 25.4%

CAQ 27.1 % 23.1%

QS 6.0 % 7.6%

Turnout: 74.6%

71.6%

A New Political Map

Source: Radio-Canada

2014 2012

From 49 ridings in 2012, the PLQ sweeps to 70 in 2014.

The New Government

The New Premier

He re-entered politics in 2012 after four years in the private sector, succeeding former Premier Jean Charest as leader of the Liberal Party in 2013.

A result of his scientific training, Couillard is very fact-oriented and his no-nonsense style has contributed to his popularity in the electorate.

Couillard seeks to distance himself from Charest-era Liberals, an orientation that could be reflected in the selection of Cabinet Ministers.

A neurosurgeon by training, Philippe Couillard served as head surgeon at two Quebec Hospitals before entering politics. Couillard left the medical profession to run in the riding of Mont-Royal in 2003, serving as Health Minister until 2008.

The New Liberal Government • The new Liberal Cabinet will be formed by the end of April, after which the

government will get down to tabling its first budget. It is expected that the main message of the next four years will be that only robust growth will allow the province to continue providing its social programs and reduce its debt.

• During his leadership race last year, as well as in this recent campaign and in his first press conference on Tuesday, Liberal Premier-elect Couillard emphasized employment and regional economic development.

• The PLQ will try to kick-start the Quebec economy by resuming massive infrastructure investments and pushing for more natural resources development.

• The Couillard government will likely steal a few pages from its opponents. Couillard announced he will table a new, minimalist Charter of Values and a new end-of-life Bill this spring. He is also promising to develop the St-Lawrence River as an alternative to road transportation, a copy of a similar CAQ Project.

A New Investment Climate Topics Minority PQ Government Majority PLQ

Government

Minority vs. majority government

Can dissolve the National Assembly at any time. A minority government remains in place on average 18 months

Same government for 4 and a half years

Business Savvy No MNA with real economic background or experience

Couillard’s top priority is focusing on public finances. Three new MNAs will join the economic team: -Carlos Leitao -Jacques Daoust -Martin Coiteux

Economic Development structure

A lack of a real strategy for economic growth for instance, no Ministry of Economic development

Want to bring back the Ministry of Economic Development

Public investments An announcement of more than $ 2 billions in public investment s before the campaign

A reduction in public investments and the PQ’s previous announcements are to be reevaluated

Leadership Campaign (2013)

• Education • Innovation • Tax Reform • Quebec Identity • Open government

Election

• Health care reforms (7-day clinics and more ‘super-nurses’)

• Regional economic development

• Reviving Plan Nord

First Press Conference

(April 8, 2014)

• Ethic-thorough background checks for all government members

• Audit of provincial books by Auditor General

• A minimalist Charter of Quebec Values

• Reintroduction of end-of-life legislation

• A more open, transparent government

Couillard’s Top Priorities

Key Dates to Watch

Week of April 14

April 22nd or 29th

Late April- Early May

Swearing in of MNA’S

Appointment of new Cabinet

Inaugural speech

Mid-to late May

End of May- early June June 15th

Tabling of Budget

PLQ Policy Convention

End of the Charbonneau Commission